COVID-19

Jaime SepulvedaInstitute for Global Health SciencesUniversity of California, San FranciscoApril 23, 2020

Timeline of CoViD-19 Global Pandemic

Dec 2019

Jan 2020

Feb 2020

Mar 2020

April 2020

Dec 31 • China alerts WHO to several

“pneumonia” cases in Wuhan

Jan 7 • New virus identified and named it 2019-nCoV• France confirms Europe’s first case

Jan 19 • First case in the U.S. in Washington state

• WHO declares outbreak a Pubic Health Emergency of Int’l Concern

Feb 2 • First death outside China in the Philippines

Feb 11 • WHO names virus SARS-CoV2 and the disease CoViD-19

Feb 14 • Egypt confirms Africa’s first case

Feb 26 • Latin America reports first case

Mar 11 • WHO declare the outbreak a pandemic

March 23

• New York City confirms over 21,000 cases, making it the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S.

March 26 • The U.S. reaches the highest number of confirmed

cases in the word with 82,404 infections

Jan 11

April 2 • The world reaches 1 million infections

April 7 • The U.S. reports the highest single-day death toll for any country: more than 1,900April 10 • Globally, authorities report 1.67 million casesand 101,700 fatalities

Bad combo:Respiratory spread; contagious; lethal

• Data suggest similar transmission as seasonal influenza• Droplet - primary, large virus-

laden nuclei, <6 feet (OSHA) don’t stay long in the air• Hands• Fomites (surfaces)• Possible: gastrointestinal?

Empirical evidence that social distancing works• Two adjacent Italian provinces in

Lombardy region• One (Lodi) began shelter-in-place on

26 February• Other (Bergamo) began shelter-in-

place on 9 March • Empirical evidence that shelter in

place orders can blunt transmission and new disease

https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/coronavirus-dati-lodi-dimostrano-misure-lockdown-rallentano-contagio-ADo675B

COVID-19 cases by day, Lodi and Bergamo provinces, Italy, February-April, 2020

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Lodi

INTERVENTION

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Bergamo

INTERVENTION

Is social distancing working in San Francisco?COVID-19 cases by day, San Francisco and Los Angeles, March-April, 2020

San Francisco

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Los Angeles

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First COVID-19 death

Shelter in place Shelter in place

First COVID-19 death

COVID-19 cases, Los Angeles and New York City, March-April 2020

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2-Mar 9-Mar 16-Mar 23-Mar 30-Mar 6-Apr

First COVID-19 death

COVID-19 cases by date of report, New York City, 2020

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ar7-

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ar31

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First COVID-19 death

COVID-19 cases by date of report, Los Angeles, 2020

California shelter-in-place

order

NYS PAUSE

New cases reported in Mexico

Charts of cases and deaths

Very low number of tests/ million pop.

Al 20 de Abril de 2020

Vaccines on development

• 86 vaccines in trials—China, EUA, Europe

Editorial New York Times

George Rutherford