COVID-19
Jaime SepulvedaInstitute for Global Health SciencesUniversity of California, San FranciscoApril 23, 2020
Timeline of CoViD-19 Global Pandemic
Dec 2019
Jan 2020
Feb 2020
Mar 2020
April 2020
Dec 31 • China alerts WHO to several
“pneumonia” cases in Wuhan
Jan 7 • New virus identified and named it 2019-nCoV• France confirms Europe’s first case
Jan 19 • First case in the U.S. in Washington state
• WHO declares outbreak a Pubic Health Emergency of Int’l Concern
Feb 2 • First death outside China in the Philippines
Feb 11 • WHO names virus SARS-CoV2 and the disease CoViD-19
Feb 14 • Egypt confirms Africa’s first case
Feb 26 • Latin America reports first case
Mar 11 • WHO declare the outbreak a pandemic
March 23
• New York City confirms over 21,000 cases, making it the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S.
March 26 • The U.S. reaches the highest number of confirmed
cases in the word with 82,404 infections
Jan 11
April 2 • The world reaches 1 million infections
April 7 • The U.S. reports the highest single-day death toll for any country: more than 1,900April 10 • Globally, authorities report 1.67 million casesand 101,700 fatalities
Bad combo:Respiratory spread; contagious; lethal
• Data suggest similar transmission as seasonal influenza• Droplet - primary, large virus-
laden nuclei, <6 feet (OSHA) don’t stay long in the air• Hands• Fomites (surfaces)• Possible: gastrointestinal?
Empirical evidence that social distancing works• Two adjacent Italian provinces in
Lombardy region• One (Lodi) began shelter-in-place on
26 February• Other (Bergamo) began shelter-in-
place on 9 March • Empirical evidence that shelter in
place orders can blunt transmission and new disease
https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/coronavirus-dati-lodi-dimostrano-misure-lockdown-rallentano-contagio-ADo675B
COVID-19 cases by day, Lodi and Bergamo provinces, Italy, February-April, 2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
26-F
eb
5-M
ar
13-M
ar
21-M
ar
29-M
ar
6-Ap
r
Lodi
INTERVENTION
26-F
eb
5-M
ar
13-M
ar
21-M
ar
29-M
ar
6-Ap
r
Bergamo
INTERVENTION
Is social distancing working in San Francisco?COVID-19 cases by day, San Francisco and Los Angeles, March-April, 2020
San Francisco
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
5-M
ar
7-M
ar
9-M
ar
11-M
ar
13-M
ar
15-M
ar
17-M
ar
19-M
ar
21-M
ar
23-M
ar
25-M
ar
27-M
ar
29-M
ar
31-M
ar
2-Ap
r
4-Ap
r
6-Ap
r
8-Ap
r
10-A
pr
12-A
pr
Los Angeles
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
5-M
ar
7-M
ar
9-M
ar
11-M
ar
13-M
ar
15-M
ar
17-M
ar
19-M
ar
21-M
ar
23-M
ar
25-M
ar
27-M
ar
29-M
ar
31-M
ar
2-Ap
r
4-Ap
r
6-Ap
r
8-Ap
r
10-A
pr
12-A
pr
First COVID-19 death
Shelter in place Shelter in place
First COVID-19 death
COVID-19 cases, Los Angeles and New York City, March-April 2020
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2-Mar 9-Mar 16-Mar 23-Mar 30-Mar 6-Apr
First COVID-19 death
COVID-19 cases by date of report, New York City, 2020
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
5-M
ar7-
Mar
9-M
ar11
-Mar
13-M
ar15
-Mar
17-M
ar19
-Mar
21-M
ar23
-Mar
25-M
ar27
-Mar
29-M
ar31
-Mar
2-Ap
r4-
Apr
6-Ap
r8-
Apr
10-A
pr
First COVID-19 death
COVID-19 cases by date of report, Los Angeles, 2020
California shelter-in-place
order
NYS PAUSE
New cases reported in Mexico
Charts of cases and deaths
Very low number of tests/ million pop.
Al 20 de Abril de 2020
Vaccines on development
• 86 vaccines in trials—China, EUA, Europe
Editorial New York Times
George Rutherford