1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 in New Mexico: Epidemiologic and Modeling
UpdateJune 23, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Prevalence: COVID-19 cases per 100,000 by U.S. states
As of June 23, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Prevalence Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
2295.6
108.3270.0
99.7
387.5 462.6
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
June 14, 2020
2409.5
125.3288.1
122.6
468.3 502.7
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
June 22, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
New Mexico COVID-19 Cases by Date of Specimen Collection – 6/23/20
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Statewide R-effective has increased over the past week.
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – June 23, 2020.
1.08
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Northeast R_effective 1.34 ↑
CentralR_effective 1.03 ↓
Southeast R_effective 1.17 ↑
SouthwestR_effective 1.27 ↑
NorthwestR_effective 0.97 ↑
Low Level Endemic
Approaching Low Level Endemic
Requiring further mitigation
Key (Gating Target: 1.05)
Courtesy of Presbyterian Healthcare Services – June 23, 2020.
As of June 16, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Daily rate of growth of COVID-19 cases7-day rolling average by region – 6/22/20
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%05
/22/
20
05/2
3/20
05/2
4/20
05/2
5/20
05/2
6/20
05/2
7/20
05/2
8/20
05/2
9/20
05/3
0/20
05/3
1/20
06/0
1/20
06/0
2/20
06/0
3/20
06/0
4/20
06/0
5/20
06/0
6/20
06/0
7/20
06/0
8/20
06/0
9/20
06/1
0/20
06/1
1/20
06/1
2/20
06/1
3/20
06/1
4/20
06/1
5/20
06/1
6/20
Daily
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Metro
Northeast
Northwest
Southeast
Southwest
New Mexico
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Northeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageJune 23, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Northwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving AverageJune 23, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
The areas with the largest burden of disease in AZ also border the NW region in NM
AZ cases per 100,000 population(as of 6/22/2020)
Source: https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php Source: https://navajo-nation-coronavirus-response-ndoh-nec.hub.arcgis.com/
Navajo Nation Service AreaCumulative incidence rate per 10,000
(as of 6/20/2020)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case counts in Apache County may be decreasing, while Navajo County is increasing (as of June 22, 2020)
Arizona Apache County(n=2,121)
Navajo County(n=3,037)
Source: https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
Note: Illness in the last 4-7 days may not be reported yet
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
03/0
9/20
03/1
1/20
03/1
3/20
03/1
5/20
03/1
7/20
03/1
9/20
03/2
1/20
03/2
3/20
03/2
5/20
03/2
7/20
03/2
9/20
03/3
1/20
04/0
2/20
04/0
4/20
04/0
6/20
04/0
8/20
04/1
0/20
04/1
2/20
04/1
4/20
04/1
6/20
04/1
8/20
04/2
0/20
04/2
2/20
04/2
4/20
04/2
6/20
04/2
8/20
04/3
0/20
05/0
2/20
05/0
4/20
05/0
6/20
05/0
8/20
05/1
0/20
05/1
2/20
05/1
4/20
05/1
6/20
05/1
8/20
05/2
0/20
05/2
2/20
05/2
4/20
05/2
6/20
05/2
8/20
05/3
0/20
06/0
1/20
06/0
3/20
06/0
5/20
06/0
7/20
06/0
9/20
06/1
1/20
06/1
3/20
06/1
5/20
06/1
7/20
06/1
9/20
06/2
1/20
Southeast Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average June 23, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
50
100
150
200
250
03/0
9/20
03/1
1/20
03/1
3/20
03/1
5/20
03/1
7/20
03/1
9/20
03/2
1/20
03/2
3/20
03/2
5/20
03/2
7/20
03/2
9/20
03/3
1/20
04/0
2/20
04/0
4/20
04/0
6/20
04/0
8/20
04/1
0/20
04/1
2/20
04/1
4/20
04/1
6/20
04/1
8/20
04/2
0/20
04/2
2/20
04/2
4/20
04/2
6/20
04/2
8/20
04/3
0/20
05/0
2/20
05/0
4/20
05/0
6/20
05/0
8/20
05/1
0/20
05/1
2/20
05/1
4/20
05/1
6/20
05/1
8/20
05/2
0/20
05/2
2/20
05/2
4/20
05/2
6/20
05/2
8/20
05/3
0/20
06/0
1/20
06/0
3/20
06/0
5/20
06/0
7/20
06/0
9/20
06/1
1/20
06/1
3/20
06/1
5/20
06/1
7/20
06/1
9/20
06/2
1/20
Southwest Region Case Count by Collection Date with 7 Day Moving Average – June 23, 2020
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
Detention Center Impact: Southwest Case Count by Collection Date6/23/2020
Without Detention Centers Detention Center 7 per. Mov. Avg. (Series3)
Positive samples collected during this time may not yet be reported.
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Doña Ana, Otero, and El Paso
• Otero: ~30 cases in the community; black circles include detained/incarcerated people.• Doña Ana: modeled with “imported” cases occurring from mid to late May.• Increases in ‘incarcerated’ cases correlate with case increases in Doña Ana and El Paso.
Red line – simulation; Black circles – reported cases
Courtesy of Los Alamos National Laboratory – June 18, 2020.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
El Paso County has the 6th highest number of cases in Texas: 4,488 (as of 6/21/2020)
Texas cases by county
Source: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
COVID-19 in El Paso, TX
Total cases 4,488
Active cases 1,045
Recoveries 3,175
Fatalities 120
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Number of cases in El Paso, TX peaked and began to decline in early June, but may be increasing again
Day by day cases (as of June 19, 2020)
El Paso County cases by zip code
>100 cases confirmed near the border with NM (as of June 21, 2020)
Source of exposure(as of June 19, 2020)
Source: http://epstrong.org/results.php
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
A majority of the clusters in El Paso, TX have been associated with correctional-detention facilities (as of June 12, 2020)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Hospitalization Rate: Number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population
Source: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.22.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
447.5
15.3 31.47.2
29.0
70.9
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
June 15, 2020472.2
16.3 33.48.2
33.375.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
June 22, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New COVID-19 hospitalizations each weekNM-EDSS on 6/19/2020 at 11:50 AM
New hospitalizations during this time may not yet be reported
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
COVID-19 hospitalizations and ventilator use
As of June 18, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Mortality Rate: Number of COVID-19 deaths per100,000 population (age-adjusted)
Rates have been age-adjusted to the U.S. 2000 standard population.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division 6.19.2020, New Mexico Department of Health. Population estimates, UNM Geospatial and Population Studies Program.
67.9
0.75.1
0.53.2
16.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
June 14, 2020
74.7
0.75.3
0.73.9
18.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
June 19, 2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
1 11
2
111
2
11
2
1
4
2
4
5
1
6
3
77
4
5
1
5
99
7
66
9
10
8
5
10
11
14
10
5
8
10
12
13
88
12
10
7
8
6
7
6
3
4
6
8
10
8
3
666
8
10
555
7
4
3
4
5
1
6
4
5
4
55
3
2
4
2
4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Num
ber o
f Dea
ths
COVID-19 Deaths by Date of Death, New Mexico
12 per. Mov. Avg. (Deaths)
Reporting through 6/19/2020
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Case Fatality Rate: Percentage of COVID-19 cases resulting in death (age-adjusted)
Rates have been age-adjusted to U.S. COVID-19 cases.Source: Bureau of Vital Records and Health Statistics and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Bureau, Epidemiology and Response Division, reporting through 6.19.2020, New Mexico Department of Health.
7.4%
1.2%
5.6%
1.9%2.5%
6.0%5.4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Northwest Northeast Metro Southeast Southwest New Mexico U.S.
Case
Fat
ality
Rat
e (a
ge-a
djus
ted)
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
New Mexico Status Updates
• Case count: Statewide, daily case counts have plateaued.
• Hospitalizations: For the past two weeks, hospitalizations have declined.
• Deaths: Deaths have been steadily declining since mid-May.
• Social distancing: Cell phone data suggests the mobility of New Mexico is on the rise and, in some counties, is reaching pre-pandemic levels.
• Contact tracing: The median time to quarantine for contacts identified last week was 2 days.
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Supplementary Slides
1190 S. St. Francis Drive • Santa Fe, NM 87505 • Phone: 505-827-2613 • Fax: 505-827-2530 • nmhealth.org
Modeling Assumptions
Variable Measured Value Value as of 6.23.20
R_Effective Actual Measured Daily Value by key county
R_eff=1.08
Positive Test Multiplier Calculated by LANL 4.4
Hospitalization and Mortality Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 0.3% ICU 0.3%Vent Rate 60.9% of ICUCrude Case Fatality Rate 4.4%
Length of Stay Actual rolling value / estimated number of total infected
Medical 5 daysICU 14 days ICU on Vent 14 days