Creating longitudinal analyses using linked education and workforce data

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CREATING LONGITUDINAL ANALYSES USING LINKED

EDUCATION AND WORKFORCE DATA

26th Annual MIS ConferenceFebruary 14, 2013

Carol JennerWashington Education Research & Data Center

2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013

• Why connect education and workforce information?

• What questions can be answered?• Workforce data sources• How to get workforce data• Using the data• Putting it all together – P-20W examples

OVERVIEW

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2013 MIS Conference, February 14, 2013 3

WHY CONNECT EDUCATION AND

WORKFORCE INFORMATION?


Between 2010 and 2020, the share of jobs requiring postsecondary education or training will increase• Success in employment is a critical

element in evaluating the effectiveness of education and training programs

• Awareness of employment outcomes of specific programs can help guide education and career decisions, as demonstrated in Washington’s Career Bridge website at careerbridge.wa.gov.

EMPLOYMENT IS A KEY OUTCOME

"Employment and Wages Online Annual Averages, 2010," Bureau of Labor Statistics. <www.bls.gov/cew/cewbultn10.htm>

http://careerbridge.wa.gov/


WHAT QUESTIONS CAN BE

ANSWERED?


To examine employment as an outcome• Do graduates enter the workforce

immediately after graduation or receipt of degree?

• How many grads stay in your state to work?

• What are the workforce outcomes for completers of a particular program? (CTE in high school, student major in postsecondary)

• How do employment and postsecondary enrollment relate to employment patterns established during high school?

WHAT QUESTIONS?


To examine employment status of students while enrolled• How many students are employed during

the school year?• How much do they earn?• In what industries are they employed?• How does workforce participation relate to

o Course completion and grades?o Postsecondary enrollment? Persistence in

enrollment?o Application for and receipt of financial aid?

WHAT QUESTIONS?


• What is the effect of the current recession on employment patterns during and after enrollment?

• How long does is take for a graduate to find stable employment?

• What is the return on investment for various postsecondary programs?

• What college majors and training programs are associated with the highest earnings five years after graduation?

QUESTIONS THE ECONOMISTS MIGHT ASK


From single-state UI wage data, we do not know:• Employment outside the state• Occupation• Distribution of wages within a quarter• Different jobs for a single employer• Specific employee locations for multi-site

employers• Employment not covered by UI program

BLS publishes industry-specific occupational employment estimates

WHAT CAN’T BE ANSWERED

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Industry-Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates, May 2011. <www.bls.gov/oes/2011/may/oessrci.htm>

http://www.bls.gov/oes/2011/may/oessrci.htm


WORKFORCE DATA SOURCES


About the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Program• A federal-state program financed by

payroll taxes paid by employers (and in a few states by employee)

• U.S. Department of Labor sets broad criteria for eligibility and coverage. States determine specifics.

• Nearly all employers who pay wages to employees participate byo Registering with the stateo Submitting quarterly reportso Paying UI taxes or reimbursing for benefits paid

THE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAM


Bottom line: Approximately 97% of the employees on nonfarm payrolls nationally are included in these files.

A small percentage of workers are not covered by the state UI program, including:

– Small farm operators– Some employees performing domestic services with total wages

less than $1,000 in all quarters– Non-profit preschool staff, if fewer than four staff; church

employees– Business owners, sole proprietors, self-employed workers– Federal employees (civilian and military), U.S. Postal Service

employees, railroad employees– Work-study students, as long as the employer is a non-profit, state

government or local government– Licensed insurance agents, real estate agents, brokers, and

investment company agents

WHO IS COVERED BY THE UI PROGRAM?


Wage Data • Year and quarter of earnings• Employer account number• Employee identifier (usually SSN)• Wages paid (earnings) • Hours worked (in some states)• Name

WHAT’S IN A UI QUARTERLY RECORD?


Employer Characteristics• North American Industry Classification

System (NAICS) code – a hierarchical coding scheme

• Ownership (Federal, State, Local, International, Private)

• Number of employees• Geographic location within state

WHAT’S IN A UI QUARTERLY RECORD?


North American Industry Classification System• Hierarchical, up to 6 levels

• The over 20 different 2-digit codes are sometimes combined into “supersectors”

NAICS (PRONOUNCED “NAKES”)

22 Utilities 221 Utilities 2211 Electric Power Generation, Transmission & Distribution 22111 Electric Power Generation 221113 Nuclear Electric Power Generation

“Introduction to NAICS,” U.S. Census Bureau. <www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/>U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Supersectors: <www.bls.gov/ces/cessuper.htm>

http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics/

http://www.bls.gov/ces/cessuper.htm


WHAT’S IN A UI WAGE RECORD2013 1 12345678078051120 Simpson Homer 5200 520 221113 124 500 14002013 2 12345678078051120 Simpson Homer 5200 520 221113 124 500 14002013 3 12345678078051120 Simpson Homer 5200 520 221113 124 500 14002013 4 12345678078051120 Simpson Homer 5200 520 221113 124 500 14002013 1 12345678078002346 Simpson Bart 2080 260 221113 124 500 14002013 2 12345678078002346 Simpson Bart 2080 260 221113 124 500 14002013 3 12345678078002346 Simpson Bart 2080 260 221113 124 500 14002013 4 12345678078002346 Simpson Bart 2080 260 221113 124 500 1400

YearQuarter

Employer Account

SSN NameHours

WagesIndustry

Employees

Ownership

Location

UI Wage Record Employer Characteristics

Note: These examples are presented for illustrative purposes and do not represent actual UI wage data.


WHEN DOES WAGE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE?

Current Year

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

Prior year Quarter 4 data submitted by employer and

processed by state agency

Current year Quarter 1 data submitted by employer and






Prior year Quarter 3 data available for

research

Prior year Quarter 4 data available for

research

Current year Quarter 1 data

available for research

Current year Quarter 2 data

available for research


OTHER SOURCES OF UI WAGE DATA¨ Federal Employment Data Exchange System (FEDES) –

contains federal civilian employees, U.S. Postal Service employees, and Department of Defense active duty personnel. Operated by the Jacob France Institute at the University of Baltimore. www.ubalt.edu/jfi/fedes

¨ Wage Record Interchange System (WRIS/WRIS2) – a multistate collaborative that facilitates the exchange of wage data among participating states. www.doleta.gov/performance/WRIS.cfm and www.doleta.gov/performance/WRIS2.cfm

¨ Local Employment Dynamics (LED) program – a partnership between states and the U.S. Census Bureau that provides summary information on employment and earnings at local level. lehd.did.census.gov/led/led/led.html

http://www.ubalt.edu/jfi/fedes

http://www.doleta.gov/performance/WRIS.cfm

http://www.doleta.gov/performance/WRIS2.cfm

http://lehd.did.census.gov/led/led/led.html


Workers becoming unemployed are eligible for UI benefits if:

• The individual worked 680 hours of covered employment in a base year

• The unemployment is due to circumstances beyond the control of the worker, such as lack of work or business closure

• Individual is physically able to work, available to work, and actively seeking work

UI CLAIMANT DATA


P-20W questions• How are spells of unemployment related to

industry of employment (and college major field of study)?

• How does the pattern of unemployment insurance claims (duration and number of spells) vary for the cohort of secondary career-technical education graduates entering the workforce immediately after high school graduation?

UI CLAIMANT DATA


HOW TO GET WORKFORCE DATA


Identify the workforce data custodian in your state• Get acquainted with your state’s labor

market information (LMI) officeo In many cases the state LMI shop is in the

same agency as the state Unemployment Insurance program

o LMI staff should have familiarity with the data and the processes necessary to move to the next step

o Check the directory on the website lmiontheweb.org/ to find your state’s LMI director

• Discuss your needs with LMI specialists

GET TO KNOW YOUR STATE LMI SHOP

http://lmiontheweb.org/


Goals of P-20W Data Governance• Protect student and employer privacy

consistent with applicable lawso Both FERPA* and U.S. Department of Labor**

regulations are in play• Promote responsible data use

o ERDC distributes link to PTAC Technical Brief #3***: Statistical Methods for Protecting Personally Identifiable Information in Aggregate Reporting

GET FAMILIAR WITH PRIVACY ISSUES

*FERPA reference: www2.ed.gov/ptac**US DOL reference: Electronic code of Federal Regulations, Part 603***PTAC Technical Brief link: nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2011603

http://www2.ed.gov/ptac

http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?c=ecfr&sid=c9444a2af507a54f883f9c8bf710ec5a&rgn=div5&view=text&node=20:3.0.2.1.3&idno=20http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?c=ecfr&sid=c9444a2af507a54f883f9c8bf710ec5a&rgn=div5&view=text&node=20:3.0.2.1.3&idno=20

http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2011603






Establish a data-sharing agreement• Be prepared to provide or discuss

o Any legislation that authorizes you to access this data

o The role of UI wage data in the proposed research

o Data items needed to conduct the research• Additional components include

o Limitations on access and use and re-disclosure

o Physical safeguards, data transfer protocol• Notice of Non-disclosure to be signed by

all with access to UI data

ESTABLISH DATA-SHARING PROTOCOLS


USING THE DATA


SSN is the nearly universal linking field between education and workforce data• Can come from a variety of sources within

a centralized P-20W data system• Can be used with name fields to confirm

link• Use auxiliary data sources to establish or

confirm linko Within-sector name change informationo Driver license records (may contain SSN)o Marriage-divorce and court records for name

change

SSN – THE KEY LINKING IDENTIFIER


SSN data quality varies by P-20 sector. • Parent SSN sometimes entered in K-12

student records. Work history should not start before student reaches working age.

• In our experience, SSNs from higher ed sector are usually valid.

Should be only one SSN per employer account per quarter• Name fields can be used to eliminate

records with data entry errors in SSNThe more tools applied, the cleaner the

data.

CLEANSING THE DATA


Important when using data spanning more than one quarter• Consumer Price Index

o Day-to-day living expenses for urban consumers based on fixed “market basket” of goods and services

• Implicit Price Deflator for Personal Consumptiono Assumes that the consumer has made

allowances for changes in relative pricesThe index is the ratio of the cost in a

particular time period to the base cost.

ADJUSTING FOR INFLATION


PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER:

P-20 EXAMPLES


Indicator 5S1 – Secondary Placement• Denominator (the cohort): Number of CTE

concentrators who left secondary education during the reporting year

• Numerator: Number in the cohort who were “placed” in postsecondary education or training, or in employment in a specific post-exit quarter

• Washington uses P-20W data (Washington public postsecondary enrollment, National Student Clearinghouse, and UI wage data) to develop this indicator

CAREER-TECHNICAL EDUCATION FOLLOW-UP


WORKFORCE PARTICIPATION, H.S. GRADS

CountPercen

t of total

Total regular high school graduates, Spring-Summer 2009 61,685 Total evaluated for workforce participation (73% of grads)

45,077 100%

Total with earnings in Washington 34,071 76% Total with earnings during last 2 years of HS* 28,159 62% Earnings during school year 25,638 57% Earnings during summer 2008 only 2,521 6% Earnings post-high school* 25,505 57%

*These two categories are not mutually exclusive, so totals add to more than 100%.

Workforce Participation, Washington State High School Graduates, 2008-09, April 2011.< www.erdc.wa.gov/briefs/pdf/201102.pdf >

http://www.erdc.wa.gov/briefs/pdf/201102.pdf


EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY GROUPWashington High School Graduates, Spring-Summer 2009, with earnings in last two years of high school

Industry Supersector Total During school year

Summer only

Natural resources and mining 3% 2% 11%Construction 2% 2% 5%Manufacturing 2% 2% 3%Trade, transportation, and utilities (includes retail)

29% 30% 17%

Information 2% 2% 2%Financial activities 2% 2% 2%Professional and business services 4% 4% 6%Education and health services 10% 10% 12%Leisure and hospitality (includes restaurants) 38% 39% 30%Other services and public administration 7% 6% 12%


ANSWERS LEAD TO MORE QUESTIONS…Median earnings by quarter by post-high school enrollment status

Note the difference in

earnings between CTC and 4-year students


HIGHER ED APPLICATION

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Date of Award

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Term Year

* Summer 2007

2007-08 * Fall 2007

* Winter 2008

* Spring 2008

* Date of award (calendar quarter)

Reference years: 0 1 2 3

Goal: Express workforce outcomes relative to the timing of an event – receipt of degree


• Employer Account Employer Research ID• SSN Student Research ID• Industry Code Reduced to 2- or 3-digit• Number of Employees Size classes• Unchanged: Wages, hours, year, quarter• Additions include:

o Inflation-adjusted wages (plus values of index used)

o Imputation details (basis for imputation, imputed hours)

o Reference year and quarter (relative to date of award)

PREPARATION OF DE-IDENTIFIED DATA


• Student ID Student Research ID• Specific CIP codes for major may be

aggregated• Other characteristics (age, race/ethnicity,

geographic origin) may be grouped into broader categories

• Groupings done in consultation with IR shops and will not necessarily be the same across all institutions

• Possible additionso Survey resultso Enrollment status (Washington public

institutions plus National Student Clearinghouse data) by quarter

PREPARATION OF STUDENT COMPLETIONS DATA


Wage Detail File – One record for each year-quarter-employer-employee where year-quarter falls within study range• Original data (de-identified) as described

plus additional elementsWage Summary File – One record for each

graduate• Annual (by reference year): primary

employer, industry of primary employer, number of employers, total wages

Student File – De-identified student and degree information

THREE FILES TO RESEARCHERS (ALL DE-IDENTIFIED)


EXAMPLE FROM BACCALAUREATE FOLLOW-UP

“Connecting Unemployment Insurance (UI) Wage and Baccalaureate Data,” presented at Association for Institutional Research Annual Forum, June 5, 2012. <www.erdc.wa.gov/presentations/pdf/20120605_air.pdf >

Analysis of 2005-06 bachelor’s degree recipients from a Washington higher education institution.Inflation-adjusted.

http://www.erdc.wa.gov/presentations/pdf/20120605_air.pdf


ADDITIONAL RESOURCES AND

CONTACTS


For more information on education-workforce connections, see:

Employment Data Handbook: A Guide for Incorporating Employment Information from a State Unemployment Insurance (UI) Program into a P 20 Longitudinal Data System www.erdc.wa.gov/briefs/pdf/EmploymentDataHandbook_v1.pdf

Contact information:Carol Jenner: [email protected] Norris: [email protected]

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES AND CONTACTS

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http://www.erdc.wa.gov/briefs/pdf/EmploymentDataHandbook_v1.pdf

http://www.erdc.wa.gov/briefs/pdf/EmploymentDataHandbook_v1.pdf

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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Creating longitudinal analyses using linked education and workforce data

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