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CRedCarbon Reduction

Climate Change MitigationWhat the UK is Doing

the Carbon Reduction Programme

Keith ToveyН.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наукФакультет экологических исследований

Университета Восточной АнглииEnergy Science Director,

Low Carbon Innovation Centre

CRed

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Climate Change Mitigation

• Climate Change – a short review

• International Comparisons

• Issues affecting the UK

• the Carbon Reduction Programme

• Conclusions

• Climate Change – a short review

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Future Global Warming Rates

Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

4Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Change in precipitation in UK 1961-2001

5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T

emp

erat

ure

Ris

e (o C

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

actual

actual

actual

predicted

predicted

predicted Is Global Warming man made?

Prediction: Anthropogenic only

Not a good match between 1920 and 1970

Prediction: Natural only

good match until 1960

Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic

Generally a good match

Predictions include:

• Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Sulphates and ozone

• Solar and volcanic activity

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19792003

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

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• Climate Change – a short review

• International Comparisons

• Issues affecting the UK

• the Carbon Reduction Programme

• Conclusions

Climate Change Mitigation

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• In UK each person is consuming energy at a rate of

5.1 kW

• In USA it is 10.6 kW

1/20th or World’s Population consumes 25% of all energy

• In Europe it is 5.7 kW• In Russia it is also 5.7 kW

• Globally it is around 2 kW

• ENERGY Consumption > Carbon Dioxide > Global Warming

International Comparisons

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0 5 10 15 20 25 30

kW per Head

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

GD

P p

er h

ead

(U

S$

(95)

USA

Russia

Canada

China

India

UK

Japan

Germany

Poland

France

Qatar

Other EU Countries

Nordic EU New EU

Mediterranean EU

Energy - GDP Relationships

International Comparisons

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Primary Energy per Capita (kW)

CO

2 E

mis

sion

s pe

r C

apit

a

Other EU

EU nordic

EU med

EU new

Carbon Emissions per unit of Primary Energy

Qatar

USA

Canada

Australia

Russia

Japan

France

Germany

UK

Developing Countries

Carbon Dioxide Emissions per unit of Energy

International Comparisons

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Electricity Emission Factors• Russia ~ 0.50 kg/kWh• China ~ 0.87kg/kWh• UK ~ 0.52 kg/kWh

Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Different Countries

coal79.4%

Coal19%

Hydro17%

Gas45%

Oil3%

Nuclear16%

Russia

Nuclear21%

Coal37%

Oil2%

Gas33%

Other2%Hydro

1%

Renewables4%

UK

Hydro 14.9%

Nuclear2.3%

Oil3% Other

0.4%

China

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• Climate Change – a short review

• International Comparisons

• Issues affecting the UK

• the Carbon Reduction Programme

• Conclusions

Climate Change Mitigation

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Energy Saving: The UK Perspective

UK has become more efficient in using energy to generate wealth over past 50 years.

Generates the same wealth with 45% of energy as in 1950.

Improvement ~ 1.45% per annum

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Energy Consumption: The UK Perspective

Wealth of UK increased uniformly with energy in 1950s and 1960s

Major infra-structure projects in late 1960s - early 1970s

1979 - 1992 restructuring followed by increase efficiency

1992 - increased conservation

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Change in Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation in UK1990

coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

renewables

other

1999

2005

Major changes in the Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation

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Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

•Carbon Emission Factors for Electricity Generation

• Coal ~ 1000 g/kWh

• Oil ~ 850 g/kWh

• Gas ~ 540 g/kWh

• Gas (CCGT) ~ 420 g/kWh

• Nuclear ~ 4 g/kWh

Electricity Options for the Future

From 1990 to 1999

• Substantial fall in carbon dixoide emissions

• Despite 23% increase in demand

• However, once change is made saving cannot be made again

• Hence rise in recent years

1990coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

renewables

other

2005

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Historic and Future Demand for Electricity

Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ele

ctri

city

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

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Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

Actual

High Growth

Low Growth

The Gas Scenario

Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas.

Replacements for ageing plant

Additions to deal with demand changes

Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010

20% renewables by 2020

Low Growth – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010

But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002)

High Growth – Business as Usual

257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002)

Electricity Options for the Future

Gas Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

bil

lio

n c

ub

ic m

etr

es Actual

High Growth

Low Growth

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Low Growth Scenario

Other Options

High Growth Scenario

Business as Usual

New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mto

nn

es C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

25% Renewables by 2025

• 20000 MW Wind

• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

Electricity Options for the Future

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Energy Saving: Why is it important for the UK?

• The UK has been self sufficient in energy

• Under present trends the UK will be a substantive importer of natural gas ~ 80% and oil by 2020

• It makes sense to reduce energy demand and still remain competitive economically.

• Reducing energy demand will also see a reduction in carbon dioxide - the main contributor to Global Warming

• The Government has set targets and provided mechanisms to provide grants for individuals and industry.

• However, more could be done.

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• Government Targets• 10.4% of total electricity by 2010

• unlikely to be met - at best 6 - 7%

• 20% by 2020

Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market

Onshore 1.5 MW turbine

60 MW offshore Wind Farm at Yarmouth commissioned early 2005.

New Wave Powered device - launched 6th August 2004

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• Renewables Obligation– Requires all suppliers to provide a minimum percentage of

electricity from New Renewables.

– In 2006 - 2007 the percentage will be 6.7%, but only around 3% is being achieved.

• Target is increased each year

– In 2006 – 2007 Suppliers will fined at 3.324 p per kWh (1.662 Roubles) per kWh for any shortfall.

• Fine is index linked – in 2002 – 3 it was 3.0 p per kWh

– This is introducing a new market in the trading of Renewable Obligation Certificates - issued as proof of generation.

Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market

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The Regulator

OFGEM

SUPPLIERS

Trader and Brokers

Renewable Generator

Notifies Regulator how much generated.

ROC’s issued

Sells ROCs to Trader

Sells Electricity with or without ROCs

Notifies OFGEM of compliance -i.e. ROCs or pays FINE

Buys ROCs from Trader

FINES recycled in proportion to ROCs held

Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs)

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• £12 - 15 per MWh Recycled fines

• £1.50+ per MWh Embedded benefits

• £4.30 per MWh Climatic Change Levy

• £33.24 per MWh Value of ROC (2006)

• £40 - £45 per MWh Wholesale Electricity Price

Less BETTA Imbalance charges ~ £2-£3 per MWh

Value of Renewable Generation about £90 per MWh i.e. about twice whole sale price

Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs)

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• Climate Change – a short review

• International Comparisons

• Issues affecting the UK

• the Carbon Reduction Programme

• Conclusions

Climate Change Mitigation

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• Started in Norwich• Now also in Suffolk, Camden, Essex, Cheshire and others

• Elsewhere in World:

– USA (North Carolina), Japan (Okinawa) China (Shanghai)

The Carbon Reduction Project

• Aims to Reduce CO2 emissions by 60% to combat Climate Change

• Promoting Approriate Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation

• Promoting Awareness

• Working with businesses, Public Bodies, individuals

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• Understandable Language

Energy Saving: Awareness / Education / Advice

A mobile phone charger left on

------ up to 25 kg CO2 a year

Standby on television > 60 kg per year

Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank)

--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of a balloon)

A tumble dryer uses four times as much energy as the equivalent washing machine

- use the dryer sparingly

Boiling an extra cup full of water causes the emission of 25 cupfuls of carbon dioxide.

and the domestic sectorEach person in UK emits 9 tonnes of CO2 per year

~ 5 hot air balloons

Russia

10.5 tonnes

~ 6 balloons

Community Engagement - Reepham

Total emitted by residents of Reepham 13288 tonnes of CO2

= 7382 hot air balloons of CO2 Reepham is now developing a zero-carbon ambition

in the Community

Flying 11%

Heating/ hot water 40%

Other household

energy 28% Car 21%

CO2 by proportion

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EngineGenerator

36% Electricity

50% Heat

GAS

Engine heat Exchanger

Exhaust Heat

Exchanger

11% Flue Losses3% Radiation Losses

86%

efficient

Localised generation makes use of waste heat.

Reduces conversion losses significantly

61% Flue Losses

36%

efficient

at the University

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Conversion efficiency improvements

1997/98 electricity gas oil Total

MWh 19895 35148 33

Emission factor kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277

Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699

Electricity Heat

1999/2000

Total site

CHP generatio

n

export

import boilers CHP oil total

MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 923Emission

factorkg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277

CO2 Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422

Before installation

After installation

This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide

at the University

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Conversion efficiency improvements

Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA

Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectivelyMore electricity could be generated in summer

at the University

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A 1 MW Adsorption chiller uses waste heat to provide chilling

1 MW 吸附冷却器

The Adsorption chiller will save around 700 tonnes CO2

reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated

吸附冷却器可为东滩提供空调系统 每一个可减少排放 700 吨 CO2

at the University

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ZICER a very low energy building• Designed to emit less than 50% of CO2 compared to conventional

building

• Good Management has reduced emissions even further to less than 25% of normal

• Includes 34 kW of Photovoltaic Generation on top of building

• Plans to install 4 – 6 MW of Wind Generation

• Plans to install biomass CHP

at the University: Other Projects to reduce CO2

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0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

£-

£200,000

£400,000

£600,000

£800,000

£1,000,000

£1,200,000

£1,400,000Cumulative CO2 savings

Cumulative Cost Savings

and the Business Sector

x 1200 saving

Packaging

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Better Route Planning 10% 50%

More efficient vehicles 15% 58%

Action CO2 saving

Cumulative saving

Using 50% Biofuels 35% 35%

Advanced Driver Training 15% 45%

and the Transport Sector

Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

02/Jun 22/Jun 12/Jul 01/Aug 21/Aug 10/Sep 30/Sep

km/lt

r

Driver 1

Driver 2

Small things add up! A saving of 58% is possible

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Making a Pledge

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and a vision for the future in China

Visitor Centre & Solar Research

访客中心和太阳能研究中心

Energy River – Greenhouse of the future

能源之河 - 未来温室

Municipal Building with support below mound

市政废物区和人造山下的支持区域Biomass Building with

storage area beneath hill

生物质能区和位于人造山下的储存区域

Biogas Building with support area beneath hill沼气区和位于人造山下的

支持区域

Main Entrance

主入口

An integrated power station, stunning architecture, a visitor centre and theme park

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And FinallyLao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

If we do not change direction then we will end up where we are heading and the adverse consequences of Climate Change

Combating Climate Change requires• Promotion of Appropriate Renewable Energy, Energy Conservation

• Carbon Capture and Sequestration in the Future

• Promoting Awareness to use energy more effectively

• Supporting the aims of the Programme

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Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови k.tovey@uea.ac.uk