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CRedCarbon Reduction 1
Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) Н.К.Тови M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvEnergy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre
School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. Rotary Club of Norwich
Rotary Club of Corby Annual Lecture 5th November 2009
The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future for our Children:
The Hard Choices Facing Us
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
CRedCarbon Reduction
• How much Energy is there in different fuels?Understanding Energy
MegaJoules Yogurts kWh
Yogurt 85000 calories (85kcal) 0.365 1 0.1
1 cubic meter gas 39.6 106.8 10.8
1 litre petrol 32.9 90.1 9.1
1 litre diesel 35.7 97.8 9.9
1 litre LPG 25.0 68.6 7.0
1 litre heating oil 35.3 96.6 9.8
2
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Increasing Occurrence of Drought
CRedCarbon Reduction 4
Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood
CRedCarbon Reduction 5
(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)
Norwich
Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise
Norwich City would be playing water polo!
CRedCarbon Reduction 6
19792003
Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
• NASA satellite imagery
• في الجليد الصيفالشمالي القطب
المنطقة تغطيةالقطبيه
• الصور ناساالفضاءيه
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
•20% reduction in 24 years
في ٪ 20• سنوات 24تخفيض
المناختغير كاب القطبيه الجليديه على 2003 - 1979 اثار
6
CRedCarbon Reduction 7
Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security
Import Gap
CRedCarbon Reduction 8
How is electricity generated
CRedCarbon Reduction 9
Electricity Generation in the UK
Each unit of electricity used causes the emission of 540 gms in UK but only 70gms in France.
42% efficient in UK
Power Station
Coal 37.7%
Gas 35.5%
Oil 1.3%
Other 2.0%
Renewable 4.7%
Nuclear 18.9%
Losses 8.5%
Emissions depends on efficiency, losses and fuel
Coal ~ 1000 gms
Oil ~ 900 gms
Gas ~ 400 gms
Nuclear ~ 20gms
CRedCarbon Reduction 10
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
potential contribution to Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently
35%)Available now (but is
now running out)
~2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
UK becomes net importer of
gas in 2004
Langeland and Balzand Pipe Lines completed
Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020
10
CRedCarbon Reduction
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest
"Clean Coal"
Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could
supply 40 - 50% by 2020
Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect
this
11
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
potential contribution to Supply in 2020
costs in 2020
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently
35%)Available now (but is now
running out)
~2p + but recent trends put figure
much higher
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Inst
all
ed C
ap
aci
ty (
MW
)
New Build ?
ProjectedActual
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at
scale required until mid 2020s11
CRedCarbon Reduction 12
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction 1313
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced
sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich.
At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
CRedCarbon Reduction 14
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill,
Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction 15
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly
15+ p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up
to 10 years to pay back in UK.
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction 16
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
50% + available, but research needed in some areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK
electricity needs.
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
CRedCarbon Reduction 17
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction 18
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction 19
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only
4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables southSave 40000 tonnes of CO2
Wave/Tidal Stream
100% + ultimately
techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%
4 - 8p
CRedCarbon Reduction 20
Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly
10+ p
Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas
2.5 - 4
Wave/TidalStream
100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020
4 - 8p
Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention
notcosted
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then
On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation
~ 2p
Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential
2.5 - 3p
Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers
Cost in2020
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
CRedCarbon Reduction
Actual Nuclear
Projected Nuclear
Actual Coal with FGD
Opted Out Coal
Renewables
New Nuclear?
New Coal ???
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
MW
There is a looming capacity shortfall
Even with a full deployment of
renewables.
A 10% reduction in demand per
house will see a rise of 7% in total demand
- Increased population decreased
household size
Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security
CRedCarbon Reduction 22
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
CRedCarbon Reduction 23
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
CRedCarbon Reduction 24
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
CRedCarbon Reduction 25
Raising Awareness
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.
• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
上海徐汇区高第一小学
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
CRedCarbon Reduction
26
The Behavioural Dimension
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
kW
h in
per
iod
No of people in household
Electricity Consumption
1 person
2 people
3 people
4 people
5 people
6 people
Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption
Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich
For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times.
When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times
CRedCarbon Reduction 27
Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs
CRedCarbon Reduction 28
House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar
Panels
- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!
It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?
House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February
CRedCarbon Reduction 29
Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic
Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.
Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3779 kWh per year [14th/408] , in
Eaton Rise District of Norwich ~ 3000 kWh
West Norfolk, 6082 kWh [391st/408] per year
CRedCarbon Reduction 30
Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump
Any low grade source of heat may be used• Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep• Bore holes• Lakes/Rivers are ideal• Air can be used but is not as good
• Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible.
• Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in.
CRedCarbon Reduction
3131
6 kW Proven Turbine powering a Heat Pump providing heating for Parish Kirk, Westray
Horizontal Axis Mini Wind
In 2007/8, mini wind turbines had a load factor of ~ 10.5% on average>>> annual output of approximately 5500 kWh/annum
CRedCarbon Reduction 3232
Involve the local Community
• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.
CRedCarbon Reduction
A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future未来的低碳之路
1. 不要浪费能源 Awareness
3. 使用可再生能源 Renewable
Energy
4. 抵消碳排放 Offsetting
2. 使用效率高的设备 Technical Solutions
CRedCarbon Reduction
• What can you do in your school• What can you do at home• Where are the biggest savings in Energy and carbon emissions?• Energy Security issues will be just as important as Carbon
reduction in the UK and will increasingly affect us all in next 10 years
• Global warming will increasingly affect our fellow citizens of the planet in the developing world in the next 10 years
• Addressing Energy Security by taking small steps now will also help with Global Warming
• Otherwise we may have to choose whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat our home.
What can we do?
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher 老子 ( 604-531BC )中国古代思想家、哲学家
“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” (直译):“如果你不改变,你将止步于原地。”
WEBSITE www.cred-uk.orgThis presentation will be on WEB from tomorrow >follow Academic Resources Link
CRedCarbon Reduction
CRedCarbon Reduction 36
Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not
been this high in more than half a million years.
Last Ice Age
Last Interglacial
Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received).
350
300
250
200
Ca
rbo
n D
iox
ide
(
pp
mv
)
600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Thousands of Years Before Present
[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]
1800
today
36
Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record
CRedCarbon Reduction 37
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T
emp
erat
ure
Ris
e (o C
)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(o C)
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Tem
per
atu
re R
ise
(o C)
Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
actual
actual
actual
predicted
predicted
predictedIs Global Warming man made?
Prediction: Anthropogenic only
Not a good match between 1920 and 1970
Prediction: Natural only
good match until 1960
Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic
Generally a good match
Predictions include:
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity