Dr Tim Fox CEng FIMechE CEnv FRSA - Columbia...

Improving the world through engineering www.imeche.orgImproving the world through engineering 1

One planet, too many people?

Dr Tim Fox CEng FIMechE CEnv FRSAHead of Energy and Environment

Institution of Mechanical EngineersLondon, UK


Our Planet Under Pressure

Institution fully engaged in the public debate:


Introduction

• Overview

Towards the peak

Changing demographics

Increased demand

Engineering the basics

The Population Challenge

Food, water, urbanization and energy

What needs to change?

Conclusions


More people

• 21st Century growth

• Regional variation

Increasing by c.75 million/yr up to 2016 then slows

Additional 2.3 billion by 2050

Peak at 9.5 billion in 2075

European, North American, Australasian and Japanese close to stable and/or decline

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Bill

ion

s

World

Asia

Africa

Europe

Latin America

NorthAmerica

Source: United Nations 2009, Adapted from United Nations 2004

Asia currently has half world total but peaks at 5.3bn in 2065

Africa expands most relatively, more than doubling by 2100


Elderly North - Younger South

Already aged substantially by 2010 and projected to continue

By 2050, 27% 65+ in Europe and 22% 65+ in North America

By 2050, 30% <30 in Europe and 38% <30 in North America

• North

• South

Relatively little ageing before 2010 but projected to turn-up sharply

Asia & Latin America approach North America by 2050 with c.20% 65+ and c.40% <30

Africa remains young throughout


More urban dwellers

• An urban future 29% urban in 1950

50% urban in 2010

75% urban in 2075

Africa and Asia urbanising most rapidly in 21st

Century

City regions of 1 million or more total 450 (c. 1bn people) 20 have more than 10 million and expect 29 by 2025

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

% u

rban

NorthAmericaEurope

Latin America

Asia

Africa

Source: United Nations 2010

• The rise of the ‘mega-city’

An ‘older’ North and ‘younger’ South


More consumption

• An appetite for growth

• Changing tastes

GDP in North America has grown 25-fold since 1800’s

Ratio of income per capita North America to Africa was 3 in early 1800’s, now 17

Most rapid growth has been in Asia, expanded 8-fold in 50 years

Most populous region becoming more affluent, fuelling unprecedented consumer demand for goods, food, energy

100

1000

10000

100000

1800 1900 2000 2100

Dol

lars

per

cap

ita

NorthAmerica

Europe

LatinAmerica

Asia

Africa

Source: GGDC 2010


Increased global demand

• Basic needs

• Energy

Food – double agricultural production by 2050 Water – global consumption up 30% by 2030 Shelter – 75% of people urban by 2050 (3 billion more)

Double of demand by 2050, possibly quadruple by 2100

• Exacerbated by climate change & geopolitical tension

• How to meet this challenge through engineering?

Extreme weather, droughts, floods, sea level rise Estimates that up to 1 billion people displaced by 2050 Finite resources, rare earths etc


Engineering the basics

• One Planet, Too Many People?

Demographic change in 21st Century will challenge civil society, government and in particular engineers

Acknowledge forecasting demographic change includes uncertainty, that scenarios are possible outcomes; report responds to general trends

Involved over 70 engineers in professional practice around the world

Considers basic human needs; food, water and shelter Additionally examines access to affordable energy which

underpins increased well-being and economic growth Climate change considered as a stress inducer


Three regions

• 21st Century demographics Fully developed (mature post-industrial economies)

stable/declining populations e.g. EU down 20% by 2100 increasing older population, declining youth

Late-stage developing (current high industrialisation) decelerating growth e.g. Asia up 25% by peak in 2065 increased affluence, ageing population

Newly developing (about to industrialise) accelerating population growth – majority of global increase

e.g. Africa up double by 2050 (some nations triple or more) younger population (53% under 30 by 2050), increasingly

urbanised


Characteristic countries

• Everyone’s comfort

Increasing interdependence – global population growth and its impact is an issue that has no respect for borders


“The Population Challenge”• International young engineers technical competition

• The Brief

Ran March to November 2011 Teams composed of 4 – 6 young engineers 23 teams from nine countries registered

Consider changing demographics and projected climate Identify most pressing 21st Century challenge in food,

water, urbanisation or energy for their own country Propose sustainable engineering based solution(s)

• Objective Build on IMechE Report finding and extend evidence base Inspire young engineers to innovate and engage with the

local communities and wider society in which they practice


Competition outputs - Finalists• Runners-up

• Winners - Anambra State University

Hong Kong – Sustainable water supply USA – Sustainable urban transport infrastructure Nigeria – Sustainable energy supply Trinidad & Tobago – Sustainable energy supply

Nigeria – Sustainable food supply

Oil-dependency, increasing population and ineffective use of arable land

Produce storage and transportation Mechanisation, irrigation, agrochemicals,

biotechnology and enhanced organic Political, financial and social issues


Food• Improving arable land use and produce handling Water efficiency in agriculture and processing Mechanisation, automation and robotics Post-harvest losses in storage and transportation Land drainage, salinity and alkalinity


Water

• Improving water capture, storage and management Storm water capture and storage, control of leakage Separate sewage and storm water systems, recycling Groundwater management, aquifer storage & recovery Desalination


Urbanization

• Building on communities Cities have deeply engrained cultures; engineers need

to work with them, there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ Integrating and planning; food, water, housing, energy,

waste and transportation Slums, informal economy and community cohesion Climate change induced sea-

level rise


Energy

• Innovate and enable access Demand reduction and efficiency improvements

Energy management technologies

Low-carbon clean technologies and market failures

Local domestic & community level clean technologies


Empower communities• Finance and Ownership Innovative financing mechanisms and novel models of

personal and community ownership that drive adoption of localised clean technologies and sustainable engineering

Innovative intervention programmes that channel infrastructure financing direct to poor communities who plan and carry-out improvements, thus handing the communities a central role


Engineering response

• No insurmountable engineering challenges

• Unique opportunity with newly industrialising region

Engineering technology and sustainable practice know-how exists today to meet many of the anticipated challenges

Majority of 21st century population growth while heading off on the road to industrialisation

Apply lessons learnt and ‘leapfrog’ the high GHG emissions resource-hungry phase of early industrialisation

If don’t, developing to same per capita GHG footprint as Asia now by 2050; GHG emissions up x3 to 7Gt/yr Europe now by 2100; up x10 to 27Gt/yr

Climate change and resource depletion more severe for all


What needs to change?

• No need to delay action waiting for a breakthrough

• Engineers need to take a more human holistic view

Encourage innovation in development, demonstration, deployment of viable clean technologies and sustainable engineering practice as a priority; innovate the costs out

Tackle non-technological barriers of finance, politics, ethics, regulation, ownership; issue often implementation barriers

Address the inherent global imbalance of the challenge Engage engineers in government and decision making

Communication and sharing between disciplines and sectors Understand human dimensions and develop holistic

localised interventions; no ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach

• Engineering Development Goals (5 EDGs)


Conclusions

• No insurmountable engineering challenges to meeting the food, water, shelter and energy needs of 9.5bn people by late 21st Century.

• Interventions need to be more holistic, multi-disciplined, participatory and local context sensitive.

Finance, politics, regulation, ethics and ownership are often the implementation barriers

• Unique opportunity exists to help newly developing world ‘leapfrog’ the resource-hungry dirty phase of industrialisation; avoid our failures and mistakes.

There is much that the developed world can learn from contemporary sustainable practice in developing nations.


Thank you

Questions?

www.imeche.org

http://www.imeche.org/knowledge/themes/environment/Population

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Dr Tim Fox CEng FIMechE CEnv FRSA - Columbia...

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