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August 24, 2007ERCOT Regional Planning Group Meeting
CREZ Transmission Optimization Study
Warren LasherSystem Assessment
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
Looking for 8
PUC Docket No. 33672• Began in January 2007
• Parties nominated CREZs and demonstrated financial commitment
– Most proposed CREZs based on the areas developed in the AWS Truewind study
• TSPs and potential TSPs put forth alternate transmission solutions
• Hearing on Merits held June 11-15• Decision on CREZ reached in late
July; written order has not yet been issued, so some details are still unclear
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
Your Mission, If You Choose to Accept It…
Capacity of New CREZ Wind by Scenario (MW)
Wind Zone
Scen. 1
Scen. 2
Scen. JP
Scen. 3
1, 2 1,274 2,917 6,000 4,560
4 1,039 2,380 0 3,720
5, 6 807 1,849 3,000 2,890
9, 10 1,457 3,336 5,000 5,215
19 573 1,312 0 2,051
Total 5,150 11,794 14,000 18,436
Subject To
Change
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
The Process
• Will be conducted similar to the Regional Planning Group process, on fast-forward
• Frequent meetings will be held to discuss options, modeling, and results
• First meeting is scheduled for August 31 at the MET Center
• The RPG – CREZ mailing list will be used to distribute information associated with the study
• Participants will be expected to propose alternatives and to review each other’s proposed solutions
• Transmission solutions will be developed for the four scenarios outlined in the Interim Order
– Higher-penetration scenario(s) will require some pre-work
• ERCOT will perform the independent assessment
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
Project Timeline
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gridlines Represent 2-Week Periods
Gather Options for Connections in CREZ Areas
Stability Analysis
Evaluate Options for System Connections
Est
ab
lish
Ma
ilin
g L
ist
an
d S
et
Me
etin
g S
che
du
le
Modify Base Case for Higher Wind Scenarios
Incorporate Results of A/S Study
Review Results
Evaluate System Upgrade Options for Higher Wind Scenarios
ERCOT Review and Report
Aug. 31 Feb. 15
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
Project Timeline
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gridlines Represent 2-Week Periods
Gather Options for Connections in CREZ Areas
Stability Analysis
Evaluate Options for System Connections
Est
ab
lish
Ma
ilin
g L
ist
an
d S
et
Me
etin
g S
che
du
le
Modify Base Case for Higher Wind Scenarios
Incorporate Results of A/S Study
Review Results
Evaluate System Upgrade Options for Higher Wind Scenarios
ERCOT Review and Report
Aug. 31 Feb. 15
Develop and Evaluate Options for Collecting Wind Generation In CREZ Areas
• Survey stakeholders for proposals• Develop multiple collection options for all 4 scenarios• Will require discussion of direct connection issues within a CREZ
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
Project Timeline
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gridlines Represent 2-Week Periods
Gather Options for Connections in CREZ Areas
Stability Analysis
Evaluate Options for System Connections
Est
ab
lish
Ma
ilin
g L
ist
an
d S
et
Me
etin
g S
che
du
le
Modify Base Case for Higher Wind Scenarios
Incorporate Results of A/S Study
Review Results
Evaluate System Upgrade Options for Higher Wind Scenarios
ERCOT Review and Report
Aug. 31 Feb. 15
ID Cong-ested Elements
ID Potential System Solutions
Evaluate Solutions
Review results
Revise Solutions
Iterate this process until solutions are optimized
Develop System-Wide Improvements(Scenarios 1, 2, and JP)
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
Project Timeline
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gridlines Represent 2-Week Periods
Gather Options for Connections in CREZ Areas
Stability Analysis
Evaluate Options for System Connections
Est
ab
lish
Ma
ilin
g L
ist
an
d S
et
Me
etin
g S
che
du
le
Modify Base Case for Higher Wind Scenarios
Incorporate Results of A/S Study
Review Results
Evaluate System Upgrade Options for Higher Wind Scenarios
ERCOT Review and Report
Aug. 31 Feb. 15
The higher wind scenario(s) may require a modified evaluation process
– May not be sufficient load in 2012 case to absorb the higher scenario(s) level of wind generation
– Review generation operating assumptions
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
Project Timeline
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Gridlines Represent 2-Week Periods
Gather Options for Connections in CREZ Areas
Stability Analysis
Evaluate Options for System Connections
Est
ab
lish
Ma
ilin
g L
ist
an
d S
et
Me
etin
g S
che
du
le
Modify Base Case for Higher Wind Scenarios
Incorporate Results of A/S Study
Review Results
Evaluate System Upgrade Options for Higher Wind Scenarios
ERCOT Review and Report
Aug. 31 Feb. 15
Draft Results of the Ancillary Services study are expected in
November
Stability studies on scenarios 1 and 2 are expected to take 6
weeks
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
Base Cases – Strawman Proposal
• Base transmission topology will be developed from the final year (2012) of the current Five-Year Plan– Latest Validated Case available
– Derived from the 2007 SSWG Dataset B case
– System Peak Load of 78,355 MW
• Wind patterns developed from AWS Truewind study• Gas price: $7.00/MMBtu (delivered)• Generation Fleet: Operating units and units with
signed interconnection agreements• As noted, the higher wind scenarios may require a
modified evaluation process. Generation operations assumptions and load levels will be reevaluated for these scenarios.
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
August 31st Meeting Topics
• Discussion of direct connection and hub(s) placement
• Discussion of alternative “on-ramp” options• List of issues
ERCOT Regional Planning Group MeetingAugust 24, 2007
On Your Mark…
• Sign up for the RPG - CREZ list at http://Lists.Ercot.com.
• Let me know if you have any questions ([email protected])
• Please participate in the process
Questions or Comments?