Criminal PsychologyCriminal Psychology

Chapter 6Chapter 6

From Dangerousness to Risk From Dangerousness to Risk AssessmentAssessment

TalbotTalbot

Kellogg Community CollegeKellogg Community College

Risk Assessment - DangerousnessRisk Assessment - Dangerousness The process of conceptualizing various The process of conceptualizing various

hazards in order to make the hazards in order to make the judgments about their likelihood and judgments about their likelihood and the need for various preventative the need for various preventative measures.measures.

Three types of PredictionsThree types of Predictions

Clinical Prediction – prediction based on Clinical Prediction – prediction based on clinical experience.clinical experience.

Actuarial Prediction – prediction is based Actuarial Prediction – prediction is based on a statistical scheme or formula.on a statistical scheme or formula.

Anamnestic Prediction – prediction is Anamnestic Prediction – prediction is based upon how a particular person has based upon how a particular person has acted in the past.acted in the past.

Risk Assessment - DangerousnessRisk Assessment - Dangerousness The process of conceptualizing various The process of conceptualizing various

hazards in order to make the judgments hazards in order to make the judgments about their likelihood and the need for about their likelihood and the need for various preventative measures.various preventative measures.

DangerousnessDangerousness What is it?What is it?

Dangerousness as a dichotomous Dangerousness as a dichotomous variable.variable.

Statistical measures and correlations.Statistical measures and correlations. Mental illness and violence.Mental illness and violence.

Risk Assessment - ViolenceRisk Assessment - Violence

Violence – Defined? Force/ Energy Types of violence

Sexual Offending? Domestic Violence Workplace Violence School Violence

Risk Assessment - ViolenceRisk Assessment - Violence Continuum Tools for Risk Assessment

Psychopathy Checklist Revised Violence Risk Appraisal Guide Rapid Risk Assessment of Sexual

Recidivism Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide JACA Principle

Three types of predictorsThree types of predictors

Static Predictors Static Predictors – features of an – features of an individual that are not changeable individual that are not changeable (e.g. (e.g. alcohol abuse, major mental disorders).alcohol abuse, major mental disorders).

Dynamic Predictors Dynamic Predictors – things that change – things that change over time and situation over time and situation (e.g. psychotic (e.g. psychotic symptoms, anger control, neg. emotions).symptoms, anger control, neg. emotions).

Risk Management Predictors Risk Management Predictors – focus on – focus on the nature of the situation or environment the nature of the situation or environment in which the person lives or will livein which the person lives or will live (e.g. (e.g. lack of supervision, lack of support, access to lack of supervision, lack of support, access to weapons).weapons).

Risk AssessmentPredict the Prediction

What is it? Elements of Prediction

Measurability – How measurable is the outcome? Vantage – Are you in a position to view the indicators? Context – Is the context of the situation clear to you? Imminence – How soon is the event in question? Experience – Do you have specific experience with the topic? Comparable Events – Are there any on which to base the

judgment? Objectivity – Can you consider either outcome? Investment – To what degree are you vested in the outcome? Replicability – Can you pre-test the situation? Knowledge – Do you have accurate information about the

issue? PINs (Pre-Incident Indicators) – Do you have access to any

reliable PINS?

Why do it?

Makes a prediction of an individual’s future acts. Consistent with psychology’s role in a variety of settings and self proclaimed goals.

How do we do it?

JACA Justification Alternatives/ Options Consequences

Good Bad

Access

Justification - 1st hurdle

Does the individual have subjective justification? Or have they justified a reason that they should do the aggressive act?

“I warned her what would happen and she did it anyway.”

Alternatives

Do they have options other than acting out aggressively?

i.e. “I am calling my lawyer and will have your job” vs. “No one can help now!”

The second is a much more threatening response.

Consequences

Does the individual identify any rewards or negative consequences to being aggressive or violent?

Examples of concerning responses would include “I can do jail time.” or “I might get caught but it would feel good!”

Access

Does the individual have access to carrying out the threat?

We typically assume access is present. Just because we don’t think they will actually build a nuclear bomb, they might Google search and find they have everything for a pipe bomb.

Threat Level DeterminationThreat Level Determination

0 elements present – no threat0 elements present – no threat 1 element present – mild threat1 element present – mild threat 2 elements present – moderate 2 elements present – moderate

threatthreat 3 elements present – severe threat3 elements present – severe threat 4 elements present – profound or 4 elements present – profound or

imminent threat.imminent threat.

Risk Assessment Guidance PaperRisk Assessment Guidance Paper& Scoring Rubric& Scoring Rubric

For this assignment the student will review the threatening letter/ case study provided in course For this assignment the student will review the threatening letter/ case study provided in course information. The student will then prepare a written assessment of the level of risk or threat present information. The student will then prepare a written assessment of the level of risk or threat present (mild, moderate, severe, or profound). A variety of threat assessment tools are available, however the (mild, moderate, severe, or profound). A variety of threat assessment tools are available, however the one to be used for this assignment is the JACA principle developed by Gavin DeBecker. A full explanation one to be used for this assignment is the JACA principle developed by Gavin DeBecker. A full explanation can be found in his book, can be found in his book, The Gift of FearThe Gift of Fear and is summarized in the PP presentation located in BB under and is summarized in the PP presentation located in BB under course information.course information.

This assignment should be written as a letter to the administration of the company for which Laura works This assignment should be written as a letter to the administration of the company for which Laura works (ESL Electronics), and who we are assuming, provided you with this letter and the question, “Should we be (ESL Electronics), and who we are assuming, provided you with this letter and the question, “Should we be worried?”. Laura is an employee who was given the provided letter from Rick, another employee. worried?”. Laura is an employee who was given the provided letter from Rick, another employee. 

Your response should:Your response should: identify and explain the tool (with proper citations) which was employed,identify and explain the tool (with proper citations) which was employed, summarize the case study or letter reviewed,summarize the case study or letter reviewed, describe the JACA principle (in understandable and general terms)describe the JACA principle (in understandable and general terms) identify how various parts of the letter fit or do not fit the JACA principles and specifically which ones,identify how various parts of the letter fit or do not fit the JACA principles and specifically which ones, and determine the current level of threat present (in your opinion). Back this determination up with and determine the current level of threat present (in your opinion). Back this determination up with

information from the letter/ case study and risk assessment used. information from the letter/ case study and risk assessment used. A description of “Risk Assessment” and it benefits and limitations should also be included. A description of “Risk Assessment” and it benefits and limitations should also be included.  2 – 4 pages2 – 4 pages Scoring RubricScoring Rubric   Appropriate choice and use of Assessment Tool – 25 ptsAppropriate choice and use of Assessment Tool – 25 pts Appropriate Discussion/ Description of the Assessment Tool – 25 pts Appropriate Discussion/ Description of the Assessment Tool – 25 pts Description of Risk Assessment (benefits & limitations) – 25 ptsDescription of Risk Assessment (benefits & limitations) – 25 pts Clear and concise reporting of final assessed risk – 25 ptsClear and concise reporting of final assessed risk – 25 pts

Case Study

Intuition

What if you don’t have the information to perform a standardized risk assessment?

Fear standard – Intuition DeBecker recommends one “follow their

gut feeling when other information is not available.” Gift of Fear

Why is it not used? Why and when might it be encouraged?

Februrary 16Februrary 16thth, 1988, 1988 "... The shit has hit the fan... all because you "... The shit has hit the fan... all because you

thought I'm a joke and refuse to listen or thought I'm a joke and refuse to listen or understand that I am gravely serious." understand that I am gravely serious."

18 months after the writing of the letter, Rick 18 months after the writing of the letter, Rick Farley entered ESL armed, shooting 11 (including Farley entered ESL armed, shooting 11 (including Ms. Black) and killing 7. This was the day prior to Ms. Black) and killing 7. This was the day prior to the date he was to appear in court for a the date he was to appear in court for a restraining order filed by Laura Black.restraining order filed by Laura Black.

Before he surrendered, Lieutenant Grijalva said, Before he surrendered, Lieutenant Grijalva said, Mr. Farley had expressed remorse about the Mr. Farley had expressed remorse about the shootings and said: ''I'm not crazy - I know I will shootings and said: ''I'm not crazy - I know I will die as a result of this.''die as a result of this.''