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RESEARCH
CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
Enhancing investment decisions
JM Financial Ltd
Detailed Report
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Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix
The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process – Analysis
of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a
five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-
point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).
CRISILFundamental Grade Assessment
CRISILValuation Grade Assessment
5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)
4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)
3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)
2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP)
1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)
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Last updated: May, 2013
Analyst DisclosureEach member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest that can bias
the grading recommendation of the company.
Disclaimer:This Company commissioned CRISIL IER report is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable. CRISIL Ltd.
(CRISIL) does not represent that it is accurate or complete and hence, it should not be relied upon as such. The data / report is subject to
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RESEARCH
JM Financial LtdWaiting in the wings for recovery in the capital markets
Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)
Valuation Grade 4/5 (CMP has upside)
Industry Capital Markets
1
July 28, 2014
Fair Value ₹49
CMP ₹41
For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in
CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.
The prospects of JM Financial Ltd – an integrated financial services player with diverse
businesses such as lending, investment banking (IB), broking, asset management andalternative management – are closely linked to the capital markets. Though a strong IB
player, it was impacted by the sluggish capital market activity in FY14. The securities lending
business provided stability to earnings in the year. We expect the lending business to grow in
FY15 supported by the planned infusion of funds by Mr Vikram Pandit’s firm. The formation of
a stable government at the Centre has improved the sentiments in the capital markets.
Though broader factors such as containment of inflation and fiscal deficit, and policy actions
by the government are at play, we are hopeful of sustainable market recovery and expect
JM Financial to benefit from it. Hence, we maintain our fundamental grade of 4/5.
Lending business provides stability to earnings
As JM Financial’s IB and broking businesses were impacted by sluggish capital market
activity, the lending (securities funding) business’ PBT contribution to overall PBT almost
doubled from 42% in Q3FY11 to ~80% in Q3FY14. Owing to the company’s cautious lending
approach, the securities funding book was flat y-o-y at ~₹30 bn in FY14 but it helped the
company to maintain healthy asset quality.
Sustained activity in the capital markets should drive growth in IB and brokerage
Taking cue from positive sentiments after the formation of a stable government at the Centre,
we expect capital market activity to recover in FY15. We have factored in 35% y-o-y growth in
the IB, brokerage and wealth management businesses. However, our assumptions depend
on the sustainability in investors’ interest which necessarily would reflect the economic
environment – lowering of inflation and fiscal deficit, and improvement in economic growth;
this is a key monitorable.
New NBFC, being jointly set up with Mr Vikram Pandit, is at an advanced stage
The new NBFC, which the company is jointly setting up with Mr Vikram Pandit, is at an
advanced stage. The current commercial real estate securities lending business would be
hived off to the new NBFC, in which JM Financial would own 50.01% stake. The company
has already hired an operational team for the NBFC, comprising a part of the existingsecurities lending team. Since the operational team has experience in commercial real estate
lending, we expect the capital to be sufficiently utilised, which has been factored into our
FY15 estimates.
Expect revenues to grow 26% y-o-y in FY15; raise our fair value estimate to ₹49
We expect revenues to grow 26% y-o-y to ₹12.6 bn in FY15, largely driven by expected
growth in IB, brokerage and securities lending businesses. PAT is estimated to grow 24%
y-o-y to ₹2.6 bn in FY15. We continue to value JM Financial by the sum-of-the-parts (SoTP)
method. We raise our fair value to ₹49, which implies P/E multiple of 15.0x FY15E earnings.
At the current market price of ₹41, our valuation grade is 4/5.
KEY FORECAST
(₹ mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
Operating income 8,478 8,628 10,416 10,020 12,581EBITDA 4,472 4,802 6,426 6,050 7,653
Adj net income 1,847 1,213 1,849 2,116 2,610
Adj EPS (₹) 2.5 1.6 2.5 2.8 3.4
EPS growth (%) 66.8 -34.4 52.1 13.9 19.7
Dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.5 2.3 1.5 2.9
RoCE (%) 9.4 8.8 10.7 10.0 12.8
RoE (%) 8.5 5.8 8.5 9.2 10.5
PE (x) 16.7 24.1 16.0 14.1 11.6
P/BV (x) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.7 10.2 9.2 8.5 8.5
CMP: Current market price
Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates
CFV MATRIX
KEY STOCK STATISTICSNIFTY/SENSEX 7831/26271
NSE/BSE tickerJMFINANCIL/
JMFINAN
Face value (₹ per share) 1
Shares outstanding (mn) 755.2
Market cap (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 31,718/526
Enterprise value (₹ mn)/(US$ mn) 51,854/860
52-week range (₹)/(H/L) 46/18
Beta 2.1
Free float (%) 31.4% Avg daily volumes (30-days) 20,80,123
Avg daily value (30-days) (₹ mn) 40
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN
PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET
Returns
1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m
JM Financial 6% 46% 50% 69%
CNX 500 4% 17% 28% 34%
ANALYTICAL CONTACTMohit Modi (Director) [email protected]
Abhijeet Singh [email protected]
Vishal Rampuria [email protected]
Client servicing desk+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]
1 2 3 4 5
1
2
3
4
5
Valuation Grade
F u n d a m e n t a l G r a d e
Poor
Fundamentals
ExcellentFundamentals
S t r o n g
D o w n s i d e
S t r o n g
U p s i d e
68.8% 68.6% 68.6% 68.6%
9.2% 9.3% 9.4% 9.5%
2.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.0%
19.3% 19.0% 18.6% 19.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Promoter FII DII Others
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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
2
Table 1: JM Financial’s business environment
ParametersInvestment banking andsecurities businesses
Securities funding andfund-based activities Asset management
Alternative
assetmanagement Others
Segment offerings Equity and institutional
broking, wealth
management, investment
banking
Margin funding, IPO
financing, promoter funding,
fixed income trading, loans to
real estate developers, asset
reconstruction and others
Asset management PE, real estate
funds
Geographic presence India, Singapore India India India India
Market position Fragmented industry; JM is
one of the leading players
Fragmented industry JM is a small player with a
market share of ~1% in
terms of mutual fund
assets under management
(AUM)
Fragmented
industry
Revenue contribution
FY14
FY15E
37%
41%
48%
48%
2%
2%
3%
2%
11%
7%
Revenue growth
(FY14-15E) 35% 21% 16% 1% -23%
Key competitors Fragmented industry; India
Infoline Finance Ltd (IIFL) is
one of the leading players
with 2.8% market share in
brokerage equity trading
Indiabulls Financials,
Religare Enterprises,
Edelweiss Capital, IIFL, etc.
HDFC AMC (12.5% market
share by mutual fund AUM
size), ICICI Prudential
AMC (11.7%), Reliance
AMC (11.6%) and others
Edelweiss
Capital, Motilal
Oswal and
foreign brokers
Revenue drivers Economic conditions, capital market activities
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
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RESEARCH
JM Financial Ltd
3
Grading Rationale
Well positioned to benefit from pick-up in the capital markets
JM Financial continues to be a leading player in the capital markets with a strong presence in
IB. A strong brand name and long-time presence have ensured JM Financial long-term
relationship with large and mid-size companies. However, deal execution significantly
moderated in FY14 due to subdued macro-economic environment and weak capital market
activity.
With the formation of a stable government at the Centre, which was a key monitorable, we
expect capital market activity to pick up in FY15. We continue to expect GDP growth to
improve from 4.9% in FY14 to 6.0% in FY15, contingent to favourable monsoons in India and
easing of international crude oil prices. The recent surge in capital market flows has rekindled
interest among corporates and banks to raise funds through the capital markets; we expect
JM Financial to be a key beneficiary of the potential development.
Lending business provides earnings stability
As JM Financial’s IB and broking businesses have been impacted by the sluggish capital
markets, the lending (securities funding) business’ PBT contribution to overall PBT rose from
42% in Q3FY11 to ~70% in FY14. The securities funding book is currently valued at ₹30 bn
(46% developer loan, 26% margin funding, 23% sponsors funding). Sequentially in FY14, the
asset size remained flat because of the company’s cautious stance owing to a weak economic
environment.
Table 2: Lending book - peer comparison
Players ₹ bn (FY14)
IIFL 109
Religare Enterprises 99 (Q3FY14)
Edelweiss Financial 86
Motilal Oswal Financial 4
Source: Companies, CRISIL Research
Cautious stance in asset fund ing has enabled healthy asset quality
Due to the company’s cautious lending approach, in a weak macroeconomic environment, the
asset quality has remained stable. The company had two non-performing asset (NPA)
accounts in the margin funding segment, out of which it resolved one by selling the collateral –
property – and recovered 90%; the other NPA account has been fully provided for. JM
Financial has adequate risk management practices in terms of sufficient collaterals/ security.
Its ability to manage asset quality, especially in an economic downturn, will be tested. Asset
quality in developer loans too remains to be tested as this book has not yet seasoned since
JM Financial recently entered this segment. In addition, a strong balance sheet continues to
support the funding business. The business is currently comfortably leveraged at ~3x, which is
lower than some of its peers. The company also maintains strong risk management practices;
as part of it the company maintains treasury funds worth ₹3,000 mn for this business.
JM Financial’s lending book was flat y-o-y
owing to its cautious stance
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
16 18 20
30 30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
(₹ bn)
Lending boo k
Loan book largely comprises developer
loans and margin funding
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Lending forcommericalreal estate
46%
Lending tosponsors
23%
Margin
funding14%
Loan
againstshares12%
Corporatelending
5%
Equity fund-raising has been sluggish in
FY14
Source: Industry, CRISIL Research
1,145
407784 688
2,282
2,968
3,784
2,765
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
(₹ bn)
Equity Debt
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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
4
Figure 1: NIMs have improved because of a profitable mix Figure 2: Asset quality has largely been healthy
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Subdued profitability in the IB business; expected to improveafter surge in capital market activity
As mentioned, a weak macro-economic environment took a toll on JM Financial’s IB and
securities lending businesses. Over the past two years, the company has executed more of
debt-raising deals, on which it earns a lower margin (by around 90 bps), vis-à-vis equity-
raising deals. Deal execution in IB also remained tepid because of a weak economic
environment. Resultantly, the company’s capital markets-linked revenues have been muted.
However, with rekindled interest in the capital markets following a stable government at the
Centre, we believe that JM Financial is well positioned to benefit from the opportunity.
Post-election favourable environment to benefit brokerage industry
Over the past few years, the broking industry has been in a consolidation phase due to the
weak market environment, incessant pressure on broking yields and high competition. In
2010, Axis Bank acquired the IB and broking units of Enam Securities. Fortune Financial
acquired Antique Stock Broking’s IB and research divisions. JM Financial remains a small
brokerage player, with market share ~1%, and primarily focuses on the high-yielding cash
segment for HNIs and financial institutions. The blended broking yield for JM Financial is
currently ~4 bps. After its split from Morgan Stanley in FY07, JM Financial acquired ASK
Securities in FY08 and scaled up its institutional equities business. Currently, it has research
coverage on over 160 stocks, which helps it to cater to over 100 institutional clients. JM
Financial had ₹150 mn exposure to National Spot Exchange Ltd (NSEL), which has been
completely provided for in FY14.
Though we expect the company to maintain its market share in the brokerage business over
FY15, we expect revenues and profitability to improve given the improvement in investor
sentiment and the company’s focus on equity brokerage.
4.0% 4.2% 4.5%5.0% 4.6%
6.7% 6.8% 6.9%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Q 1 F Y 1 3
Q 2 F Y 1 3
Q 3 F Y 1 3
Q 4 F Y 1 3
Q 1 F Y 1 4
Q 2 F Y 1 4
Q 3 F Y 1 4
Q 4 F Y 1 4
Net interest margin
0.1% 0.1%
0.9%0.8%
0.9%
1.4%
1.0%
0.4%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
Q 1 F Y 1 3
Q 2 F Y 1 3
Q 3 F Y 1 3
Q 4 F Y 1 3
Q 1 F Y 1 4
Q 2 F Y 1 4
Q 3 F Y 1 4
Q 4 F Y 1 4
Gross NPA
JM Financial’s share in broking lower
than peers’
PeersMarket share – equity
broking (FY14)
IIFL 2.8%
Edelweiss 3.0% (Q1FY14)
Religare 1.9% (Q3FY14)
Motilal Oswal 1.6%
JM Financial ~1.0%
Source: Companies, CRISIL Research
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RESEARCH
JM Financial Ltd
5
Figure 3: Growth in equity turnover moderated over the past
few years
Figure 4: JM Financial’s share in the equity brokerage
segment
Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research
Global plans of IB and broking at a nascent stage
The company has set up a new office in Singapore after receiving the capital market services
licence in Q4FY14. In Q4FY14, it earned revenues of SG$3 mn for an M&A deal – the
acquisition of a US-based IT company by a French firm. With this deal, the operations in
Singapore broke even. The management has indicated that the Singapore office’s deal
pipeline is healthy.
AMC business expected to face headwindsJM Financial holds a marginal presence in the AMC business (market share of ~1%) with
AUM of ₹60 bn in FY14, down 19% y-o-y; in contrast, the mutual fund industry grew at a
healthy pace of 18%. For JM Financial, the debt segment constitutes ~90% of its total AUM,
suppressing company’s AMC revenues as yields in liquid mutual funds and the debt segment
are lower by 100-150 bps than in the equity segment. We expect the AMC business to
continue to face headwinds because of relatively small scale and high competition; however,
the capital markets sentiments that have turned positive could positively impact the AMC
business.
Turning focus on the ARC businessThe gross NPA ratio of Indian commercial banks increased from 3.40% in FY13 to 4.20% in
H1FY14, creating a significant opportunity for the asset reconstruction (ARC) business. JM
ARC’s AUM increased from ₹11 bn in FY13 to ₹36.5 bn in FY14, in which JM has a share of
₹5.8 bn. The company has largely acquired credit cards and corporate loans in the ARC
business. With significant growth opportunity, the company is incrementally putting more
attention on the business to tap the opportunity. The company plans to raise capital from
shareholders to infuse funds in the business to sufficiently capitalise it for potential growth.
37 4272 103 185
149232 339 356 420 509
172%
13%
71%
43%
79%
-19%
56%46%
5%18% 21%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
F Y 0 4
F Y 0 5
F Y 0 6
F Y 0 7
F Y 0 8
F Y 0 9
F Y 1 0
F Y 1 1
F Y 1 2
F Y 1 3
F Y 1 4
(₹ tn)
Equity turnover (BSE + NSE) Growth y-o-y (RHS)
2.2
2.8 2.83.1 3.2
3.4
2.62.4
0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7
0.8 1.0 1.01.1 1.0
0.8 0.7 0.8
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Q 1 F Y 1 3
Q 2 F Y 1 3
Q 3 F Y 1 3
Q 4 F Y 1 3
Q 1 F Y 1 4
Q 2 F Y 1 4
Q 3 F Y 1 4
Q 4 F Y 1 4
(%)
Cash segment FAO segment Overall
The ARC business witnessed healthy
growth last year
The company invested ₹50-60 mn in
Q3FY14 on overseas expansion; the
new office in Singapore has already
achieved break-even
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RESEARCH
JM Financial Ltd
7
New NBFC, jointly with Mr Vikram Pandit, at an advanced stage
The new NBFC, which the company is jointly setting up with Mr Vikram Pandit – with the latter
investing nearly US$ 100 mn – is at an advanced stage. The existing commercial real estate
securities lending business will be hived off to the new NBFC. The company has also put the
operational team, comprising a part of the existing securities lending team, in place. Since the
operational team has experience in commercial real estate lending, we expect the capital to
be sufficiently utilised, and have factored in the same in our FY15 estimates.
Funds infus ion in the ARC business by Mr. Pandit expected to be posit ive
In addition, the company is likely to set up a distressed asset fund (which invests in trusts),
jointly by Mr Pandit’s firm, with initial capitalisation of $100 mn. The fund infusion in the ARC
business is positive and indicates the aggressive plans of the company to scale up the
business. However, we have not factored in the estimate until we get further visibility.
Table 4: Peer comparison on various parameters
As of FY14 IIFL Edelweiss Financial Motilal Oswal Financial JM Financial Religare EnterprisesRevenues (₹ mn) 28,373 25,555 4,568 10,020 33,282
PAT (₹ mn) 2,781 2,202 395” 2,116 (7,837)
PAT margin (%) 10% 9% 9% 21% (24)%
Net worth (₹ mn) 21,753 30,950 11,754 23,621 33,544
Cash (₹ mn) 13,593 19,637 1,678 9,791 11,665
Debt (₹ mn) 105,202 129,480 1 29,921 141,688
Leverage (x) 4.8 4.2 0.0 1.3 4.2
RoA 2.2% 1.4% 3.3% 3.9% (3.9)%
Key parameters comparison
MF AMC AUM (₹ bn) 2.1 1.7 5.8 60.5 137#
Market share (%)- equity broking 2.8 3.0* 1.6 1.0# 1.9#Lending book (₹ bn) 109 86 4.1 30 99#
Lending share in total revenues (%) 69.5% 43.5% 18.8% 52.6%^ 61.3%
Lending share in total PBT (%) 74.1% 82.9% NA 71.2%^ 100%
Gross NPA (%) 0.86% 0.95% NA NA 1.17%
Net NPA (%) 0.33% 0.25% NA NA 0.65%
*Q1FY14, #Q3FY14; ̂ also includes other fund-based activities income; NA – not available; “PAT impacted due to NSEL exposure and adjusting that
which result in PAT of ₹771 mn; $ - trailing 12 months (TTM)
Source: Companies, CRISIL Research
Table 5: Segment-wise details
Revenues (₹ mn) Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14
IB and securities
businesses 1,003 961 1,135 763 1,187 1,036 937 1,112 1,207 1,165 1,113 715 1,086
% growth q-o-q -30% -4% 18% -33% 55% -13% -10% 19% 9% -3% -4% -36% 52%
Securities funding and
fund-based activities 869 975 939 1,022 1,202 1,241 1,375 1,439 1,462 1,528 1,214 1,261 1,289
% growth q-o-q -27% 12% -4% 9% 18% 3% 11% 5% 2% 5% -21% 4% 2%
Alternative asset
management (26) 77 90 41 251 102 51 52 68 51 52 100 101
% growth q-o-q -125% -393% 17% -54% 507% -59% -50% 1% 30% -24% 2% 91% 1%
Asset management 77 67 78 82 75 72 67 83 66 64 62 68 72
% growth q-o-q 4% -13% 17% 5% -8% -5% -6% 23% -20% -4% -2% 10% 6%
Others 159 59 445 61 67 55 451 28 76 87 769 156 157
% growth q-o-q 77% -63% 654% -86% 10% -19% 723% -94% 172% 13% 786% -80% 1%
Total 2,081 2139 2,687 1,970 2,782 2,506 2,882 2,714 2,879 2,894 3,210 2,300 2,705
% growth q-o-q -28% 3% 26% -27% 41% -10% 15% -6% 6% 1% 11% -28% 18%
*Unadjusted for intersegment revenues
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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
8
Table 6: Revenue mix
Revenue mix
(% of total revs) Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14IB 48% 45% 42% 39% 43% 41% 33% 41% 42% 40% 35% 31% 40%
Securities funding 42% 46% 35% 52% 43% 50% 48% 53% 51% 53% 38% 55% 48%
Alternative asset
management -1% 4% 3% 2% 9% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4%
Asset management 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Others 8% 3% 17% 3% 2% 2% 16% 1% 3% 3% 24% 7% 5%
Table 7: Profit before tax (PBT)
Profit before tax (₹ mn) Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14
IB and securities
businesses 241 43 102 84 124 69 34 186 184 182 220 -29 80
as % of revenues 24.0% 4.5% 9.0% 10.9% 10.5% 6.7% 3.6% 16.7% 15.3% 15.6% 19.8% -4.1% 7.4%
Securities funding and
fund-based activities 242 289 288 336 419 416 474 418 516 547 445 500 503
as % of revenues 27.8% 29.6% 30.7% 32.8% 34.8% 33.5% 34.5% 29.1% 35.3% 35.8% 36.7% 39.7% 39.0%
Alternative asset
management -139 20 35 -8 47 46 30 35 53 29 28 66 65
as % of revenues nm 26.4% 39.2% -19.3% 18.8% 45.2% 57.4% 66.2% 78.0% 56.0% 53.9% 66.0% 64.4%
Asset management 9 -14 -4 15 -20 7 4 9 3 5 5 9 19
as % of revenues 11.3% -20.3% - 4.6% 18.2% -27.1% 9.5% 5.2% 10.4% 4.9% 8.2% 8.5% 13.2% 26.4%
Others -8 19 20 19 13 39 11 (18) 23 29 -16 71 45
as % of revenues -4.7% 32.9% 4.5% 30.3% 19.5% 71.8% 2.4% -64.1% 29.9% 33.4% -2.1% 45.5% 28.7%
Total 345 358 442 445 583 578 552 630 780 791 683 617 712
Table 8: PBT contribution (%)
Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14
IB and securities
businesses 69.8% 12.0% 23.1% 18.8% 21.3% 12.0% 6.1% 29.5% 23.7% 23.0% 32.2% -4.7% 11.2%
Securities funding and
fund-based activities 70.0% 80.7% 65.2% 75.5% 71.8% 72.0% 85.9% 66.5% 66.2% 69.1% 65.3% 81.0% 70.6%
Alternative asset
management -40.1% 5.7% 8.0% -1.8% 8.1% 8.0% 5.3% 5.5% 6.8% 3.6% 4.1% 10.7% 9.1%
Asset management 2.5% -3.8% -0.8% 3.4% -3.5% 1.2% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 2.7%
Others -2.2% 5.4% 4.5% 4.2% 2.3% 6.8% 2.0% -2.9% 2.9% 3.7% -2.4% 11.5% 6.3%
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
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RESEARCH
JM Financial Ltd
9
Key Risks / Monitorable
Linkage with equity market = inherent volatility in business
JM Financial’s business prospects are invariably related to the level of trading in the equity
market. The capital markets are inherently volatile, driven by economic and political factors as
well as public sentiment. Global factors too influence market fortunes. Though the company’s
diversified business portfolio is likely to provide some elbow room, IB, wholesale financing and
asset management are linked to the performance of the equity market. Thus, CRISIL
Research believes that the company’s business will continue to be driven by the state of the
equity market whereby any instability in the equity market could significantly impair JM
Financial’s ability to deliver strong earnings growth.
Asset quality in the lending book is a monitorable
The lending book constitutes a major portion of the overall PBT. For the lending business,
JM Financial has adequate risk management practices in terms of sufficient collaterals /
security. While this strategy has enabled the company to maintain healthy asset quality, it
remains a monitorable:
■ In FY14, owing to a weak economic environment, the margin funding segment had two
NPAs. Out of this, the company resolved one by selling the collateral and has recovered
more than 90%. The second NPA has been fully provided for.
■ Asset quality in the developer loan book is yet to be tested as this book has not yet
seasoned.
Asset quality is a key monitorable,
especially in the current weak
economic environment
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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
10
Financial Outlook
Figure 7: Revenues expected to grow 26% in FY15 Figure 8: Securities funding dominates revenues
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Figure 9: PAT margins expected to remain steady over the
next few years
Figure 10: Lower RoE due to high proportion of liquid funds
and low leverage
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Revenue growth driven by improvement in capital markets
We expect revenues to grow 26% y-o-y in FY15 driven by expected growth in capital markets-
linked businesses, primarily IB and brokerage. Considering the recent spurt in capital market
activity, we expect revenues from IB and securities businesses to grow 35% y-o-y in FY15. As
mentioned, the company is hiving off its commercial real estate lending business into a new
proposed NBFC, jointly held with Mr Vikram Pandit whose firm will inject US$100 mn in it. We
believe that it is incrementally positive. We have assumed 21.0% growth in the securities
lending business.
Factored in capex for new office, no cash flow impact
JM Financial shifted its Mumbai-based corporate office from Nariman Point to Prabhadevi,
Mumbai in Q3FY14. The company has already incurred the acquisition cost of ₹2.2 bn and
there will be no cash flow impact of the same. The amount is currently lying in loans and
advances and will be capitalised in FY15.
8,478 8,628 10,416 10,020 12,581
47%
2%
21%
-4%
26%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E
(₹ mn)
Revenues Growth y-o-y (RHS)
52%42% 39% 37% 41%
36%43% 50%
48%48%
3% 3%3%
2%2%
4% 5% 2%3%
2%5% 7% 6% 11% 7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E
Investment banking and securities
Securities funding and fund based activities
Asset managem ent Alternat ive asset managem ent
Others
1,847 1,213 1,849 2,116 2,610
21%
14%18%
21% 21%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,2501,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E
(₹ mn)
Adj PAT PAT margin (RHS)
8.5
5.8
8.59.2
10.5
9.48.8
10.710.0
12.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E
(%)
ROE (%) ROCE (%)
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RESEARCH
JM Financial Ltd
11
Management Overview
CRISIL's fundamental grading methodology includes a broad assessment of management
quality, apart from other key factors such as industry and business prospects, and financial
performance.
Management - veteran in financial markets
Led by Mr Nimesh Kampani, Group Chairman, JM Financial operates through subsidiaries,
joint ventures and associate companies. Mr Nimesh Kampani has over four decades of
experience in the Indian capital markets and has played a pivotal role in not only making JM
Financial an integrated player but also fostered the development of the financial market. Each
business is headed by experienced professionals with in-depth understanding of the financial
markets and their relevant business segments.
■ Ms. Dipti Neelakantan is the Group Chief Operating Officer with about four decades of
experience in investment banking.
■ Mr V P Shetty is the Executive Chairman of JM Financial Products (which houses the
securities funding business). He has almost four decades of experience in the banking
industry.
■ The institutional business is headed by Mr Nimesh Kampani’s son – Mr Vishal Kampani,
MD and CEO of Institutional Securities.
■ The investment advisory and distribution business is headed by Mr Rajeev Chitrabhanu
and Mr Subodh Shinkar.
■ The mutual fund business is handled by Mr Bhanu Katoch, MD and CEO of this division.
The asset reconstruction division is handled by Mr Anil Bhatia, MD and CEO of this
business.
■ Mr Manish Sheth is the Group Chief Financial Officer with 10 years of experience in
financial consultancy, management consultancy, taxation, accounting and company laws.
Decentralised decision-making process
JM Financial has an experienced second line of management to support the different
businesses. Several members of the senior management, who lead various business
segments and manage day-to-day operations of the company, have been associated with the
company for almost a decade; this imparts stability to the firm’s operations. The respective
business units enjoy sufficient autonomy in decision making, which enhances operational
flexibility.
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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
12
Corporate Governance
CRISIL’s fundamental grading methodology includes a broad assessment of corporate
governance and management quality, apart from other key factors such as industry and
business prospects, and financial performance. In this context, CRISIL Research analyses the
shareholding structure, board composition, typical board processes, disclosure standards and
related-party transactions. Any qualifications by regulators or auditors also serve as useful
inputs while assessing a company’s corporate governance.
Corporate governance at JM Financial is good. It is supported by a strong board and efficient
board practices. Further, it adheres to all regulatory requirements.
Board composition exceeds requirement under Clause 49
The board comprises six members, of whom five are independent directors. The board is
chaired by Mr Nimesh Kampani, Chairman and Managing Director. The number of
independent directors exceeds the requirement under Clause 49 of SEBI’s listing guidelines
(where 50% of directors must be independent when the chairman of the board is executive).
Independent directors are well qualified and experienced in various fields.
■ Mr E. A. Kshirsagar has over three decades of experience in consultancy. He is also
highly experienced in corporate strategy and structure, valuations, mergers and
acquisitions.
■ Dr. Vijay Kelkar, PhD in economics, is the Chairman of the India Development
Foundation, New Delhi.
■ Mr D. E. Udwadia is an advocate with over four decades of experience in law, mergers
and acquisitions.
■ Mr Paul Zuckerman, PhD in agricultural economics, is the Chairman and CEO of
Zuckerman & Associates Ltd.
■ Mr Keki Dadiseth, chartered accountant, has 27 years of work experience at Hindustan
Unilever Ltd.
The independent directors have an excellent reputation and standing in the business
community. Many of them serve on the boards of other large corporations. We believe that
their diverse experience and profiles strengthen board dynamics and processes.
Appropriate board processes
The company has audit, compensation, shareholders’ grievance and nomination committees
in place to support corporate governance practices. The audit committee is chaired by an
independent director, Mr E. A. Kshirsagar.
Scope to enhance disclosures
The company publishes segment-wise quarterly performance. There is scope to further
enhance the disclosure standards, for instance, disclosing more details about each of the
business segments such as providing (i) break-up of the funding book, (ii) yields and NIMs of
the funding book, etc.
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RESEARCH
JM Financial Ltd
13
Valuation Grade: 4/5
We continue to value JM Financial by the SoTP method. We have raised our fair value
estimate from ₹42 to ₹49, which implies P/E multiple of 15x FY15E earnings. At the current
market price of ₹41, our valuation grade is 4/5.
Valuation methodology
We have used the P/E multiple method to collectively value JM Financial’s IB and broking
businesses. We have assigned the two businesses a forward P/E multiple of 10x based on
FY15 earnings. We have valued the securities funding business at P/BV of 1.4x. The asset
management business is valued by the percentage of AUM method. We have adjusted the
consolidated cash and investments for holding company’s investment in other businesses and
for cash and investment in the securities lending business.
Valuation methodology
Business Parameter Multiple Discount Remarks
Valuation
(₹ mn)
IB and securities Price/earnings
(P/E)
10x In line with average market P/E multiple 9,140
Securities funding and fund-
based activities
Price/book value
(P/BV) 1.4x
Healthy growth opportunity given strong capital markets
activity
21,150
Asset management % of AUM 4.0% Asset management 1,370
Alternative asset management Price/book value 1.3x Alternative assets - average fund valuation 1,710
Asset reconstruction Price/book value 1.5x 3,965
Other investments and cash* Book value Excludes (i) investment of₹1 bn in the alternative asset
management business, (ii) investment in asset
management and alternative investment management (iii)
Cash and investment in securities lending business (iv)
Expected fund infusion in securities and ARC business
1,380
Total valuation 38,400
No. of shares (nos. mn) 778
Fair value/share 49
Source: CRISIL Research
One-year forward P/E band One-year forward P/B band
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
M a r - 1 1
J u n - 1 1
A u g - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
M a r - 1 2
M a y - 1 2
A u g - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
M a r - 1 3
M a y - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
D e c - 1 3
F e b - 1 4
M a y - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
(₹)
JM 8x 10x
15x 18x 22x
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
M a r - 1 1
J u n - 1 1
A u g - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1 2
M a r - 1 2
M a y - 1 2
A u g - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
D e c - 1 2
M a r - 1 3
M a y - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
D e c - 1 3
F e b - 1 4
M a y - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
(₹)
JM 0.6x 0.9x 1.2x 1.5x
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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
14
P/E – premium / discount to CNX 500 P/E movement
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research
Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation
-Indexed to 100
Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research
Peer valuation
M-Cap
(₹ bn)
P/BV (x) P/E (x) RoE (%)
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY13 FY14 FY15E FY13 FY14 FY15E
JM Financial Ltd 32 1.4 1.3 1.3 17.0 15.1 12.5 8.5 9.2 10.5
Edelweiss Financial Services 50 0.9 0.8 1.5 13.1 10.0 16.6 6.6 8.0 8.9
Motilal Oswal Financial Services 32 0.9 1.1 2.3 10.3 32.3 23.4 9.3 3.3 10.1
IIFL 39 0.9 1.1 1.6 6.3 8.3 12.8 15.1 13.5 14.5
Religare Enterprises Ltd 58 1.5 1.5 - - - - (16.7) (2.2) -
Geojit BNP Paribas Financial 9 0.9 1.2 - 5.4 - 17.1 18.6 (16.2) 11.0
Source: CRISIL Research, Industry
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
M a r - 1 1
J u n - 1
1
A u g - 1
1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1
2
M a r - 1 2
M a y - 1
2
A u g - 1
2
O c t - 1 2
D e c - 1
2
M a r - 1 3
M a y - 1
3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
D e c - 1
3
F e b - 1
4
M a y - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
Premium/Discount to CNX 500
Median premium/discount to CNX 500
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
M a r - 1 1
J u n - 1
1
A u g - 1
1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1
2
M a r - 1 2
M a y - 1
2
A u g - 1
2
O c t - 1 2
D e c - 1
2
M a r - 1 3
M a y - 1
3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
D e c - 1
3
F e b - 1
4
M a y - 1
4
J u l - 1 4
(Times)
1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE
+1 std dev
-1 std dev
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
F e b - 0
9
M a y - 0
9
S e p - 0
9
J a n - 1
0
A p r - 1 0
A u g - 1
0
N o v - 1
0
M a r - 1 1
J u l - 1 1
O c t - 1 1
F e b - 1
2
M a y - 1
2
S e p - 1
2
J a n - 1
3
A p r - 1 3
A u g - 1
3
D e c - 1
3
M a r - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
JM Financial CNX 500
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
D e c - 0
9
A p r - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
N o v - 1
0
F e b - 1
1
M a y - 1
1
S e p - 1
1
D e c - 1
1
A p r - 1 2
J u l - 1 2
O c t - 1 2
F e b - 1
3
M a y - 1
3
S e p - 1
3
D e c - 1
3
A p r - 1 4
J u l - 1 4
('000)(₹)
Tot al Traded Q uant it y (R HS) CR ISI L F air Value
JM Financial
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RESEARCH
JM Financial Ltd
15
CRISIL IER reports released on JM Financial Ltd
Date Nature of report
Fundamental
grade Fair value
Valuation
grade
CMP
(on the date of report)28-Dec-09 Initiating coverage 4/5 ₹57 5/5 ₹41
02-Feb-10 Q3FY10 result update 4/5 ₹57 5/5 ₹41
01-Jun-10 Q4FY10 result update 4/5 ₹50 5/5 ₹38
19-Aug-10 Q1FY11 result update 4/5 ₹45 5/5 ₹34
03-Nov-10 Q2FY11 result update 4/5 ₹45 4/5 ₹40
27-Jan-11 Detailed Report 4/5 ₹45 5/5 ₹22
21-Feb-11 Q3FY11 result update 4/5 ₹45 5/5 ₹25
14-Jun-11 Q4FY11 result update 4/5 ₹42 5/5 ₹24
04-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 4/5 ₹42 5/5 ₹22
08-Nov-11 Q2FY12 result update 4/5 ₹33 5/5 ₹19
24-Nov-11 Detailed Report 4/5 ₹36 5/5 ₹15
20-Feb-12 Q3FY12 result update 4/5 ₹36 5/5 ₹18
27-June-12 Q4FY12 result update 4/5 ₹36 5/5 ₹12
29-Aug-12 Q1FY13 result update 4/5 ₹36 5/5 ₹14
28-Nov-12 Q2FY13 result update 4/5 ₹36 5/5 ₹17
06-Dec-12 Detailed Report 4/5 ₹36 5/5 ₹18
05-Mar-13 Q3FY13 result update 4/5 ₹36 5/5 ₹16
07-June-13 Q4FY13 result update 4/5 ₹36 4/5 ₹29
10-Sep-13 Q1FY14 result update 4/5 ₹36 5/5 ₹24
08-Nov-13 Q2FY14 result update 4/5 ₹36 5/5 ₹28
21-Feb-14 Q3FY14 result update 4/5 ₹36 5/5 ₹2628-July-14 Detailed Report 4/5 ₹49 4/5 ₹41
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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
16
Company Overview
Established in 1973, JM Financial is an integrated financial services player offering a range of
capital market products and services to corporates, HNIs and retail investors through its
subsidiaries / joint ventures / associate companies.
Organisation structure
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
It has a diversified product portfolio comprising IB, broking (institutional and retail), commodity
broking, portfolio management, asset management, NBFC, PE and asset reconstruction
businesses. These businesses are managed as strategic business units and organised as
separate companies headed by a team of professionals.
JM Financial Asset
Management Ltd.
JM Financial
Institutional
Securities Ltd
JM FinancialInvestment
Managers Ltd.
JM Financial
Products Ltd.
Infinite India
Investment
Management Pvt.
Ltd.
JM Financial
Properties and
Holdings Ltd.
90%53.47% 100% 100% 100% 49%
9%
91%
CR Retail Malls
(India) Ltd.
100%
100%
JM Financial
Limited
PT JM Financial
Securities
Indonesia
JM Financial
Commtrade Ltd
JM Financial
Securities, Inc.
100%
JM Financial
InsuranceBroking
Pvt. Ltd.
25%
JM Financial
Overseas Holdings
Pvt. Ltd.
100%
JM Financial
Services Ltd.
92.5%
JM Financial
Singapore Pte Ltd.
FICS Consultancy
Services Ltd.
99%
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RESEARCH
JM Financial Ltd
17
Business segments
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Milestones
1973 Establishment of JM Financial & Investment Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd
1986 Ventured into stock broking and securities broking business
1997 Joint venture with Morgan Stanley to offer IB and securities broking services
2006 Launch of PE fund, JM Financial India Fund, with US-based Old Lane Partners, LP
2007 Termination of joint venture with Morgan Stanley
Acquired 60% stake in ASK Securities – specialised in institutional broking business
Launch of real estate fund
2008 Acquired the remaining 40% stake in ASK Securities; and rechristened JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd
2010 Strategic co-operation with Rand Merchant Bank of South Africa to offer M&A advisory services to Indian and African
corporate
2012 Expanded to international markets
Source: Company
Depository Services
Investment Banking and
Securities Business
Capital Raising
Securities Funding and Fund
Based Activities
Alternative Investment
ManagementAsset Management
M/A and Restructuring
Adv isory
Priavte Equity Ad visory
Stock Broking
IPO funding
Private Wealth
Management
Portf olio Management
Loan against
securities
Sponsor funding
Loans to developers
Asset
Reconstruction
Real Estate Fund
Private Equity Fund Mutual Fund
JM FINANCIAL
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18
Annexure: Consolidated Financials
Source: Company, CRISIL Research
Income statement Balance Sheet
(₹ mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E (₹ mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15EOperating income 8,478 8,628 10,416 10,020 12,581 Liabilities
EBITDA 4,472 4,802 6,426 6,050 7,653 Equity share capital 750 750 752 755 778
EBITDA margin 52.7% 55.7% 61.7% 60.4% 60.8% Reserves 19,173 18,794 19,855 21,216 23,214
Depreciation 124 115 122 152 270 Minorities 1,272 1,403 1,403 1,650 2,080
EBIT 4,348 4,687 6,304 5,897 7,383 Share w arrants - - - - -
Interest 2,437 2,961 3,763 3,078 3,100 Net worth 21,194 20,947 22,010 23,621 26,072
Operating PBT 1,911 1,727 2,542 2,819 4,282 Convertible debt - - - - -
Other income 473 100 (2) (13) - Other debt 32,635 32,052 42,691 29,927 35,927
Exceptional inc/(exp) (102) (1) (20) (20) - Total debt 32,635 32,052 42,691 29,927 35,927
PBT 2,283 1,826 2,519 2,785 4,282 Deferred tax liability (net) 939 971 954 906 906
Tax provision 532 595 729 784 1,242 Total liabilities 54,769 53,971 65,655 54,453 62,904
Assets
5 20 (39) (94) 431 Net f ixed assets 289 239 213 1,178 2,781
PAT (Reported) 1,746 1,212 1,829 2,096 2,610 Capital WIP 10 7 12 1,723 -
Less: Exceptionals (102) (1) (20) (20) - Total fixed assets 299 246 225 2,901 2,781 Adjusted PAT 1,847 1,213 1,849 2,116 2,610 Investments 8,554 5,571 5,590 4,801 4,801
Current assets
Inventory (securities held as stock in trad 12,536 7,597 5,978 5,342 7,238
Sundry debtors 1,115 1,579 2,253 2,292 2,846
Loans and advances 24,233 27,296 40,576 32,695 46,549
Ratios Cash & bank balance 10,751 13,362 14,185 9,791 2,964
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E Marketable securities 283 465 99 99 99
Growth Total current assets 48,918 50,299 63,090 50,219 59,695
Operating income (%) 47.4 1.8 20.7 (3.8) 25.6 Total current liabilities 4,710 2,951 4,051 4,568 5,473
EBITDA (%) 113.2 7.4 33.8 (5.9) 26.5 Net current assets 44,208 47,349 59,039 45,651 54,223
Adj PAT (%) 66.8 -34.4 52.5 14.4 23.3 Intangible s/Mis c. e xpe nditure 1,708 806 801 1,100 1,100
Adj EPS (%) 66.8 -34.4 52.1 13.9 19.7 Total assets 54,769 53,971 65,655 54,453 62,904
Profitability Cash flow
EBITDA margin (%) 52.7 55.7 61.7 60.4 60.8 (₹ mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E
Adj PAT Margin (%) 20.6 14.0 17.6 20.9 20.7 Pre-tax prof it 2,384 1,827 2,539 2,806 4,282
RoE (%) 8.5 5.8 8.5 9.2 10.5 Total tax paid (580) (563) (747) (832) (1,242)
RoCE (%) 9.4 8.8 10.7 10.0 12.8 Depreciation 124 115 122 152 270
RoIC (%) 15.1 12.5 14.1 12.1 13.2 Working capital changes (10,691) (347) ( 11,235) 8,994 (15,398)
Net cash from operations (8,762) 1,032 (9,321) 11,120 (12,087)
Valuations Cash from investments
Price-earnings (x) 16.7 24.1 16.0 14.1 11.6 Capital expenditure (179) 841 (96) (3,128) (150)
Price-book (x) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 Investments and others 1,122 2,800 348 789 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.7 10.2 9.2 8.5 8.5 Net cash from investments 943 3,641 252 (2,339) (150)
EV/Sales (x) 6.6 6.0 6.2 5.5 5.4 Cash from financing
Div idend payout ratio (%) 24.4 37.1 36.7 21.3 33.6 Equity raised/(repaid) - (440) 55 88 438
Dividend yield (%) 1.5 1.5 2.3 1.5 2.9 Debt raised/(repaid) 14,215 (583) 10,639 ( 12,765) 6,000
Dividend (incl. tax) (524) (524) (837) (586) (1,027)
B/S ratios Others (incl extraordinaries) (75) (517) 15 67 -
Current ratio (x) 10.4 17.0 15.6 11.0 10.9 Net cash from financing 13,615 (2,063) 9,871 ( 13,196) 5,411
Debt-equity (x) 1.5 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.4 Change in cash position 5,898 2,611 823 (4,394) (6,827)
Net debt/equity (x) 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.8 1.3 Closing cash 10,751 13,362 14,185 9,791 2,964
Interest coverage 1.8 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.4
Quarterly financials
(₹ mn) Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY14 Q4FY14
Total operating income 2,783 2,819 2,477 2,219 2,551
Change (q-o-q) 3.7% 1.3% -12.1% -10.4% 14.9%
EBITDA 1,789 1,807 1,483 1,328 1,413
Per share Change (q-o-q) 9.6% 1.0% -17.9% -10.4% 6.4%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E EBITDA margin 64.3% 64.1% 59.9% 59.9% 55.4%
Adj EPS (₹) 2.5 1.6 2.5 2.8 3.4 Reported PAT 569 558 492 433 519
CEPS 2.5 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.7 Adj PAT 698 555 504 442 594
Book value 28.3 27.9 29.3 31.3 33.5 Change (q-o-q) 58.0% -20.5% -9.2% -12.4% 34.5%
Dividend (₹) 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.1 Adj PAT margin 25.1% 19.7% 20.4% 19.9% 23.3%
Actual o/s shares (mn) 749.7 749.9 751.6 755.3 778.3 Adj EPS 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.8
Minority interest/Share of
profit from associates
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RESEARCH
JM Financial Ltd
19
Focus ChartsGrowth in equity turnover moderated over the past few years ARC AUM witnessed strong growth in FY14
Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research Source: Industry, CRISIL Research
Revenues expected to grow at 26% CAGR by FY15 PAT and PAT margin trend
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
RoE lower because of high proportion of liquid funds Share price movement
-Indexed to 100
Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research
37 4272 103 185
149232 339 356 420 509
172%
13%
71%
43%
79%
-19%
56%46%
5%18% 21%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
F
Y 0 4
F
Y 0 5
F
Y 0 6
F
Y 0 7
F
Y 0 8
F
Y 0 9
F
Y 1 0
F
Y 1 1
F
Y 1 2
F
Y 1 3
F
Y 1 4
(₹ tn)
Equity turnover (BSE + NSE) Growth y-o-y (RHS)
6.0 7.610.8
36.5
1.8 2.13.4
5.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
(₹ bn)
ARC AUM JM's share
8,478 8,628 10,416 10,020 12,581
47%
2%
21%
-4%
26%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E
(₹ mn)
Revenues Growth y-o-y (RHS)
1,847 1,213 1,849 2,116 2,610
21%
14%18%
21% 21%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E
(₹ mn)
Adj PAT PAT margin (RHS)
8.5
5.8
8.59.2
10.5
9.48.8
10.7
10.0
12.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E
(%)
ROE (%) ROCE (%)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
F e b - 0
9
M a y - 0
9
S e p - 0
9
D e c - 0
9
A p r - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
N o v - 1
0
M a r - 1 1
J u n - 1
1
O c t - 1 1
J a n - 1
2
M a y - 1
2
A u g - 1
2
D e c - 1
2
M a r - 1 3
J u l - 1 3
O c t - 1 3
F e b - 1
4
J u n - 1
4
JM Financial CNX 500
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CRISIL IER Independent Equity Research
20
CRISIL Research Team
President
Mukesh Agarwal CRISIL Research +91 22 3342 3035 [email protected]
Analytical Contacts
Sandeep Sabharwal Senior Director, Capital Markets +91 22 4097 8052 [email protected]
Prasad Koparkar Senior Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 3137 [email protected]
Binaifer Jehani Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 4091 [email protected]
Manoj Mohta Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3554 [email protected]
Sudhir Nair Director, Customised Research +91 22 3342 3526 [email protected]
Mohit Modi Director, Equity Research +91 22 4254 2860 [email protected]
Jiju Vidyadharan Director, Funds & Fixed Income Research +91 22 3342 8091 [email protected]
Ajay D'Souza Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3567 [email protected]
Ajay Srinivasan Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3530 [email protected]
Rahul Prithiani Director, Industry Research +91 22 3342 3574 [email protected]
Business DevelopmentHani Jalan Director, Capital Markets +91 22 3342 3077 [email protected]
Prosenjit Ghosh Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 8008 [email protected]
Business Development – Equity Research
Vikram Thirani – Associate Director
Email : [email protected]
Phone : +91 9820199188
Amit Khare – Regional Manager
Email : [email protected]
Phone : +91 9769869996
Ankur Nehra – Regional Manager
Email : [email protected]
Phone : +91 9999575639
Priyanka Murarka – Regional Manager
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Phone : +91 9903060685
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RESEARCH
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