Crossing the Chasm What’s New For VR 2017 Pitfalls, Promises, Phones, Known Unknowns

& Big Predictions

Charlie Fink Contributing Editor, VR Voice

@charliefink http://medium.com/@charliefink

About Me •  Industry Analyst, Contributing Editor, VR Voice, 2016-Present

•  Founder/CEO Charlie Company Internet Marketing 2005-15

•  President, American Greeting Interactive, 1999-2004

•  SVP AOL, 1996 – 1999

•  EVP & COO, Virtual World Entertainment 1992-1996

•  VP, Walt Disney Pictures, 1986 – 1992

These Things I Know Are True

•  VR has been overhyped for 20 years o  Example of hype: Unity says 770 Million people are using its VR platform o  The hype will become real.

•  The killer app is people o  Social Media

•  Technology and New Media succeed when they make what we are already doing better, cheaper and faster o  Email & Messaging, Music, Photography, Travel

VR/AR/MR Definitions•  VR = A world which replaces this one

•  AR = Overlays digitally created content onto the users real world

•  MR = Where the digital and real worlds interact

•  360 Video = Allows users to look in every direction around them

•  Immersive Experience = A deeply engaging multi-sensory experience delivered using VR, AR, MR, 360 video, and other technologies

The Big Picture•  The quest for the Seamless

o  We look at our phones 100+ times a day

•  The Network effect o  You have to be there

•  Internet of Things o  Your cloud of devices and data are the hub of your life

•  Artificial Intelligence o  Things knowing you more than you know them

•  Wearables o  Hands free mobile computing

•  The Fourth Transformation o  Mainframes, PCs, Smartphones, and…

Consumer Technology Adoption Rates

ADOPTION RATES ARE ACCELERATING

2015 & 2016 SAW A LOT OF EXCITING,

SEXY PRODUCT INTRODUCTIONS

-  Oculus Rift -  HTC Vive -  Playstation VR

-  52MM VR ready PS4s already sold

-  Samsung Gear (partnership with Oculus) -  5M shipped in 2016

-  Google Cardboard -  20 million

-  Google Daydream

But 2016 Was Not the Year of VR•  Expense

o  This shit is expensive

•  Ease of Use o  High end systems hard to use o  Advantage mobile – plug and play

•  Ergonomics: heavy, restrictive, tethered o  Advantage: mobile

•  Frame Rate Issues & Low Resolution o  People are still getting nauseous o  Poor optics create a “screen door” effect

•  Crossing the “Chasm” o  Are we even there yet?

TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION LIFECYCLE

VR 2017 Developments

•  360 Video Is Going Accelerate o  Will be driven by consumers, not professional producers

•  Applications Explosion o  SDKs in the hands of 1000s of developers o  More & better native VR software o  VR Movies, Storytelling, Animation & Art

•  Continued Growth in Business Use of VR and AR o  Medical, Design, Travel, Military o  Business users become home users

•  Location Based Entertainment o  IMAX VR, HTC, UniVRS o  The Void & Zero Latency: free roam, warehouse size VR

•  Prices are Going Up, not Down o  More, better high resolution headsets are coming to market o  Needed peripherals: wireless, multipoint input

•  Slow Adoption of High End Systems Continues o  Playstation VR (52 MM install base) o  No killer app (probably social)

VR/AR Ecosystem Exploding with New Products

•  Developer Support o  Economics, OSVR, Unity

•  Peripherals & Haptics o  Data gloves, rings, treadmills, VR shoes, Wearables, Multi point (HTC) o  Untethered headsets (Kwik VR, IMR)

•  Eye Tracking o  SMI, Eyefluence (Google) and The Eye Tribe (FB)

•  Social VR o  Second Life, AltSpaceVR o  Facebook in 3D o  Oculus Rooms

End of Report Start of Predictions

We are only in the second 2nd Inning of a long game.

360 Video Will Hit an Inflection point in 2017

•  Low cost to producers & consumers •  Amazing CES product introductions

o  Vuze, Giroptic

•  New Feature of Digital Photography (already huge) o  Facebook and You Tube support

o  Great for travel, sports

•  Improved and cheap editing software •  Lots of corporate activity

o  NY Times, Discovery, Gannet/USA, Movies/TV producer

•  By 2018, 360 will be everywhere

Mobile VR Growth Will Accelerate… •  Gear, Daydream are under $100

•  Plug and Play •  Mobile and 360 Video Are Homies

o  You don’t need a headset, either

•  Latency an issue on mobile, but… o  Qualcomm Tango (Google) based on Snapdragon processor

•  Qualcomm Snapdragon & Google Tango o  AR is about to explode onto our phones (Samsung 8, Lenovo)

•  Much Bigger Market, Harder to Monetize •  The Carriers Will Become Players

o  Communications is the base functionality

New Announcements Will Reorder the Deck

“It’s all about the guys at the top of the pyramid.” – Tim Merel, Digi-Capital

•  Microsoft o  Microsoft 10 is a VR and AR platform o  OEMs promising $500 devices similar to Hololens for MS OS

•  Apple o  iPhone turns 10 o  Buying up AR companies

•  Google o  Daydream, but Magic Leap o  Eyefluence

•  Oculus (Facebook) o  Samsung VR sold 5MM GearVR headsets o  Soft sales for RIFT (and 4 BN lawsuit)

•  ODG o  Hololens patents o  Under 1000 AR glasses

•  Magic Leap o  1.3 Bn invested, including 400MM from Google

2017 May Be the Year of AR•  AR Leaders Strong in the Gate

o  Snap, Inc. is the first AR Empire o  Pokemon Go made ONE BILLION DOLLARS o  Holoportation is nothing less than pure magic

•  AR Advantages over VR o  Plug & Play (on the low end) o  Less restrictive to wear (more like glasses) o  Better, clearer optics o  Sanpdragon phones will work magic

•  Big AR Announcements Due This Year o  Known: ODG, Apple (predicted) o  Unknown: Magic Leap, or… ? Sony Future Labs – Concept T (Q4 17)

VR/AR Ecosystem

The Future’s So Bright, You Goba Wear Shades