Crude Oil Screening ‐ General Meeting
Results of Crude Oil Marketing Name Analysis
Gordon Schremp
California Energy Commission
September 9, 2010 p
OverviewOverview
• Objectives & Backgroundj g
• Information Resources
• Nomenclature
• Marketable Names ‐ Overview
• Names & Fields ‐ Results
• 2006 Base Line – Countries & Marketable Names
• Analytical Limitations
9/9/2010 2
Objective & Background
• Can marketable crude oil names be matched to their respective field source or sources?
• If so, would potentially enable carbon intensity analysis
• Initial list of “names” provided to the Air Resources Board by th W t St t P t l A i ti (WSPA)the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA)
• California Energy Commission staff used this list as starting pointp
• Augmented with other proprietary information resources– International Crude Oil Handbook (ICOM)
– Energy Information Administration list of crude oil names (EIA‐856)
– Journal of Commerce – Petroleum Import Exports Reporting System
– Crude Information Management System from PetroTech Intel
9/9/2010 3
Information Resources ‐ ICOMInformation Resources ICOM
• Annual proprietary publicationp p y p
• Detailed descriptions– Primary field name(s) & type
– Average volumes by name for year
• Some crude oil names imported to California are not listed
• 2006 & 2009 handbooks were used as part of research
• http://www.energyintel.com/DataHomePage.asp?publication_id=115&ss=e
9/9/2010 4
Information Resources – EIA856
Version No.: 20010.01
Page of
Form Approved
MONTHLY FOREIGN CRUDE OIL ACQUISITION REPORTFORM EIA-856
OMB Number: 1905-0174 Expiration Date: 12/31/2012
EIA ID NUMBER:
Report Period:Date submitted:
(d) (e) (f) (h) (I) (k) (m) (n) (o) (p)P t D t f C A i i Oth L d d
PART III. TRANSACTIONS
(l)(c) (j)V l T
(g)(a) (b) (q)Port Date of Con- Acquisi- Other Landed
Date of of Landing tract/Point tion Price Cost Cost DaysCrude Type Gravity Loading Desti- (YYMM) Code ($/BBLs) ($/BBL) ($/BBL) Credit N
(YYMMDD) nation
Volume
Loading(BBLs)
Acquired Trans-
Country/ Port
ber actionNum- Trans- Crude Code ofaction
VesselType of Name of Vendor
• Companies report foreign crude oil purchases – no domestic
• Includes “country crude code” designations nearly 650• Includes country crude code designations – nearly 650– Matched codes to marketable names list
• Data not available for California
9/9/2010 5
Information Resources ‐Information Resources
• Proprietary data base of waterborne foreign imports p y g p
• Information used to identify which marketable crude oils were imported to California during period 2006 through 2009– Names not consistently reported – not able to quantify annual
volumes by each marketable name
• California Energy Commission monthly import/export form does not require the designation of “marketable name” for crude oil imports, only source country and port– Multiple marketable names can originate from same port– Multiple marketable names can originate from same port
• http://www.piers.com
9/9/2010 6
Information Resources ‐
• Proprietary data base of crude oil and condensates
• Nearly 3,000 names in their system
• Resource used to identify source fields for marketable names
• Other informationT f fi ld– Type of field
• Gas/condensate
• Onshore
• Offshore• Offshore
– Production volumes, if unavailable from ICOM
– Loading port
f– Country of origin
– Initial start of production
• http://www.petrotechintel.com/pti/crudelist.htmlp // p /p /
9/9/2010 7
Nomenclature – Crude OilNomenclature Crude Oil
• Crude oil is sold by producers according to primary qualitiesD it (API it )– Density (API gravity)
• “Light” oil greater than 26 API
• “Heavy” oil lower than 26 API
lf ( h )– Sulfur content (weight percent)• “Sweet” or low sulfur less than 0.5 %
• “Intermediate” between 0.5 & 1.0 %
• “Sour” or high sulfur greater than 1.0 %
– Distillation properties• Vary by crude oil
• Impact portion that can be converted to gasoline and diesel fuel
• Crude oils of identical API gravity can have significantly different distillation properties
9/9/2010 8
Nomenclature – Crude Oil
• Crude oil “names” usually refer to a primary source field– General quality can be basis for nameq y
• Arab Light from Saudi Arabia
– Loading source also used – platform or pipeline
• Crude oil “fields” are geological structures that are normally• Crude oil fields are geological structures that are normally subsets of Basins or Formations– May also be part of geographical boundary that designates an
l tiexploration area• Block
• Oil Mining Lease
• Oil Prospecting Lease• Oil Prospecting Lease
• Production License
9/9/2010 9
Marketable Names ‐ Overview
• Selected all marketable crude oil names from ICOM– Includes all names from 2006 and 2009 lists
• Included any crude oil names that appeared as foreign imports in the PIERS data baseimports in the PIERS data base– Reporting of crude oil name inconsistent
– May mean that a couple of names were not included on complete list
d l d d h l• Condensates are included in the list– Processed by refiners
– Usually as a blend with other crude oil typesy yp
• Nearly all marketable crude oil names have been matched to primary & tertiary fields
9/9/2010 10
Marketable Names ‐ OverviewMarketable Names Overview
• Different crude oil names come and gog– Depletion of older fields
– Emergence of new exploration & development effort
S d il t th hil th fi ld• Some crude oil names stay the same, while the field contribution shifts– Producers strive to maintain property quality over time by varying
relative contribution of specific fields and use of condensates
• Majority of marketable names represent crude oil sourced from multiple fields located onshorefrom multiple fields located onshore– “Forties” from the United Kingdom sourced from 70 fields
9/9/2010 11
Marketable Names – Regional Shift
Source: The Oil Drum
9/9/2010 12
Source: The Oil Drum
Marketable Names – Global Shift
9/9/2010 13
60%
2006Marketable Names – Source Type
46.9%48.1%50%
36.6%33.7%
40%
Count
16 2%20%
30%
Volume‐Weighted
11.4%
5.1%
16.2%
10%
2.0%
0%
Onshore Offshore Combination CondensateSources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
9/9/2010 14
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
70%
2009Marketable Names – Source Type
48 8%
58.1%
50%
60%
36.4%
48.8%
40%
50%
30.1%
20%
30%Count
Volume‐Weighted
7.8%6.9%
9.4%10%
20%
2.3%
0%
Onshore Offshore Combination Condensate
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
9/9/2010 15
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
95 2% 94 1%100%
Marketable Names – Field Concentration
86.1%82.2%
95.2% 94.1%
80%
90%
Adj ti f
60%
70%
Count
Adjusting for production volume diminishes “single field” contribution
30%
40%
50%Count
Volume‐Weighted
13.9%17.8%
4 8% 5 9%10%
20%
30%
4.8% 5.9%
0%
2006 Single 2006 Multiple 2009 Single 2009 Multiple
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
9/9/2010 16
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
55
60All Names ‐Multiple Fields Distribution55
50
37
30
40
f Instances
20
30
Num
ber o
f
15
1210
86
35
35
10
N
31
21 1
31 1 1
21
02 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 19 20 21 34 70
Number of FieldsSources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data Number of Fields
9/9/2010 17
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
Marketable Names – Source Acronyms
Comb-Multi Offshore & onshore crude oil sourced from multiple fields.Con CondensateOff‐MMN Offshore crude oil sourced from multiple marketable names.Off‐Multi Offshore crude oil sourced from multiple fields.Off‐Single Offshore crude oil sourced from a single field.On-MCDSB Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple conventional, bitumen fields, upgraded synthetic & diluent.On‐MDB Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple bitumen fields & blended with diluent.On-MDSB Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple bitumen fields, upgraded & blended with diluent.p , pgOn-MS Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple bitumen fields & upgraded to synthetic crude.On-MSR Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple bitumen fields, upgraded to synthetic crude & blended with residual fuel oilOn‐Multi Onshore crude oil sourced from multiple fields.On‐Single Onshore crude oil sourced from a single field.
Offshore sources ‐ no upgraded crude oilConsists wholly or partially of crude oil processed at an upgrading facilityOnshore sources ‐ no upgraded crude oil
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
Should note that “conventional” onshore and offshore sources can involve various forms of enhanced oil recovery
9/9/2010 18
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
0.6%3.4% 0.0%
Condensate
2006Marketable Names – Source Type
5.1% CondensateOff‐MMNOff‐Multi
175 Names935 Fields
28.6%Off‐SingleComb‐MultiOn‐MCDSB
36.6%On MCDSBOn‐MDBOn‐MDSBO MS
0 0%
4.0%
0.0%On‐MSOn‐MSROn‐Multi
9.7%11.4%
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%On‐SingleUnknown
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM CIMS & PIERS Data
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Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM, CIMS & PIERS Data
0 5%0.0%
Condensate
2009Marketable Names – Source Type
6.9%0.5%
4.1% CondensateOff‐MMNOff‐Multi
217 Names1,018 Fields
26.3%Off‐SingleComb‐MultiOn‐MCDSB
35.9%
On MCDSBOn‐MDBOn‐MDSBO MS
0.9%
3.7%
0.5% On‐MSOn‐MSROn‐Multi
12.4%
7.8%
0.5%
0.5% On‐SingleUnknown
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM CIMS & PIERS Data
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Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM, CIMS & PIERS Data
0 %3.6% 0.4%
All Marketable Names – Source Type
7.1%0.4% Condensate
Off‐MMNOff‐Multi
252 Names1,110 Fields
24.2% Off‐SingleComb‐MultiOn MCDSB
35.3%
0 4%
On‐MCDSBOn‐MDBOn‐MDSB
0.8%0.8%
4.4%0.4%
On‐MSOn‐MSROn‐Multi
13.9%
8.3%0.4%
On MultiOn‐SingleUnknown
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM CIMS & PIERS Data
9/9/2010 21
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM, CIMS & PIERS Data
2.3%
2006Marketable Names – Source Country
17.7%
2.3%Africa
Canada46 Countries
25.7%Europe
Far East
3.4%15.4%
Far East
Former Soviet Union
15.4%
UnionLatin America
Middle East
16.6%
3.4%United States
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
9/9/2010 22
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
2009Marketable Names – Source Country
16 1%
4.1%Africa
Canada47 Countries
25.8%16.1%
Europe
Far East
5.1%14.7%
Far East
Former Soviet Union
11.1%6 5%
UnionLatin America
Middle East
16.6%
6.5%
United States
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
9/9/2010 23
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
2.3%
All Marketable Names – Source Country
17.7%
Africa
Canada49 Countries
25.7%Europe
Far East
3.4%15.4%
Far East
Former Soviet Union
15.4%
Latin America
Middle East
16.6%
3.4%United States
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
9/9/2010 24
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM & CIMS Data
2006 Base Line – Country & Names2006 Base Line Country & Names
• California crude oil imports sourced from 22 countriesp
• Consisted of 36 marketable crude oil names
• Increased to 45 marketable names by 2009
• CEC would need to survey companies to accurately determine import volumes by marketable name for 2006 and subsequent years – confidential PIIRA requestsubsequent years confidential PIIRA request
9/9/2010 25
California Marketable Names
Country 2006 2007 2008 2009 Country 2006 2007 2008 2009Algeria 1 1 1 1 Mexico 2 1 2 1Angola 3 5 6 5 Neutral Zone* 1 1 1Argentina 1 1 1 3 Nigeria 1 2 1g gAustralia 2 1 Norway 1 1 1Azerbaijan 1 1 Oman 1 1 1 1Brazil 2 3 5 5 Peru 1 1 1 1Cameroon 1 1 Russia 2Chad 1 1 1 1 Saudi Arabia 3 3 3 3Chad 1 1 1 1 Saudi Arabia 3 3 3 3Canada 1 2 4 4 Thailand 1Columbia 3 3 4 4 Trinidad & Tobago 1 1Ecuador 2 2 2 2 UAE ‐ Abu Dhabi 1 1 1Equatorial Guinea 1 Venezuela 6 4 3 6I d i 1 1 Vi 1Indonesia 1 1 Vietnam 1Iraq 1 1 1 1 Yemen 1 1
Malaysia 1 Totals 36 40 41 45* Kuwait Portion
Sources: CEC Analysis of PIERS Data
Between 22 & 28 additional marketable crude oils were imported from countries not included in the original 2006 Base Line
9/9/2010 26
Sources: CEC Analysis of PIERS Data
2006 CA Marketable Names – Source TypeCalifornia
2.8% 0.0%
5.6%
0.0%
CondensateOff‐MMNOff Multi
36 Names – Larger portion from onshore sources
27.8%
Off‐MultiOff‐SingleComb‐MultiOn‐MCDSB
sources
2 8%
38.9% On‐MDBOn‐MDSBOn‐MSO S
5.1%0.6%
3.4% 0.0%
CondensateOff‐MMNOff M lti
Global
2.8%
11.1%
0 0%8.3%
On‐MSROn‐MultiOn‐SingleUnknown
36.6%
28.6%
Off‐MultiOff‐SingleComb‐MultiOn‐MCDSBOn‐MDBOn‐MDSBOn‐MS 0.0%
2.8%0.0%0.0%Unknown
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM CIMS & PIERS Data
9.7%11.4%
0.0%
0.6%
0.0%
4.0%
0.0% On‐MSROn‐MultiOn‐SingleUnknown
9/9/2010 27
Sources: CEC Analysis of ICOM, CIMS & PIERS Data
Analytical Limitationsy
• Nearly all marketable crude oil names have been matched to primary & tertiary fieldsprimary & tertiary fields
• Less than 18 percent of marketable names associated with a single field source (5 percent on a volume‐weighted basis)– Could actually be lower if all satellite fields could be identified
• Ability to further analyze other attributes of a particular marketable name with multiple field sources is difficult sincemarketable name with multiple field sources is difficult since the relative contribution of the various fields is not normally disclosed & production volumes vary from year‐to‐year– Depth of field
– Water to oil ratio
– Flaring & venting
9/9/2010 28
Additional Q&A
Golden Gate Bridge from Fort Point National Historic Site CA September 5 2010
9/9/2010 29
Golden Gate Bridge from Fort Point National Historic Site, CA – September 5, 2010