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Transcript
Here I want to share how to earn from crude oil trading in MCX...
Here I will give you the baby steps for success in crude oil trading...
Watch it... And learn something from it... This is purely for newbie’s....
Crude oil is my friend...Crude oil is not a commodity...
Crude oil is a human for me...
I can talk with crude oil, I can walk with Crude oil, I can sleep with crude oil
So Crude oil is always my friend... I can know the every movement of my friend (Crude Oil)
Watch here... some interesting matters to be posted here with articles and images, etc....to win in the crude oil trading...
Here I want to share how to earn from crude oil trading in MCX...
Here I will give you the baby steps for success in crude oil trading...
Watch it... And learn something from it... This is purely for newbie’s....
Crude oil is my friend...Crude oil is not a commodity...
Crude oil is a human for me...
I can talk with crude oil, I can walk with Crude oil, I can sleep with crude oil
So Crude oil is always my friend... I can know the every movement of my friend
Watch here... some interesting matters to be posted here with articles and images, etc....to win in the crude oil trading...
I can talk with crude oil, I can walk with Crude oil, I can sleep with crude oil
So Crude oil is always my friend... I can know the every movement of my friend
Watch here... some interesting matters to be posted here with articles and images,
Experience 1:
There are lots of commodities like gold, silver, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminium, natural gas, etc....
But my favourite is crude oil...
To win in the commodity markets, one should be able find the support and resistance for every product. if we are able to find the support and resistance, we can easily find the trend, and we can easily predict the entry price whether SELL or BUY.....
For my personal experience, Crude oil is always technically traded by all the winners... so i also prefer...Even every Strategy designer also tests first in crude oil or nifty... If they give good winning ratios, they will apply and test for other products...
Do you know one thing? Nifty and Crude oil - Both are 4 Digit products....
Watch every movement with full interest in crude oil, one day you will find what is going to happen in crude prices....
The first part of the technical analysis is about reading and understanding the chart. Especially you to know about candle stick formation. As this is for beginners, i will show you how candle stick chart is formed.
There are more types of candlestick chart patterns. But first of all, we should know how candlestick is formed. And then easily we can understand about other types of candles in the upcoming lessons
The white candle indicates the positive closing of the commodity
The Black Candle indicates the negative closing of the commodity
These candles can be applied and seen for every 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 30 minutes or daily basis, or for any time which is required by traders using amibroker or other software’s
If you are able to understand the formation of the candlestick, next we can see about finding support and resistance for crude oil every day without any confusion.
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Experience 4
What is trading? Why we come to market?
We came to commodity market only for making money... This is only the goal for all the traders. We are not coming for learning or not for excitement.... understand first...
So Trading is nothing but the result of the trades what is happening after you enter the market...
Know one thing...Every price is not a trading price... every day is not a trading day...So Entering the correct time is always must in the crude oil...
Always don’t try to average in the falling market... because it is just like a catching the falling knife...
Don’t always bias with one trend... within a day, two to three times trend will be changed in crude oil easily...Whenever there is a change in the trend, you should always exit the current position whether profit or loss and change your trend...
if you are thinking to exit on the trend reversal, you cannot always make profit in crude oil. So Acting quickly on trend reversal is always important.
This post is just psychological concept to create self-control and discipline..
I believe, Upcoming lessons will give you full-fledged knowledge. Due to time constraint, I am giving here step by step activities to be learnt from crude oil.
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Experience 5
The below is for some general knowledge about candlestick bars for newbie’s
1. Long white candlesticks indicate that the Bulls controlled the ball (trading) for most of the game.
2. Long black candlesticks indicate that the Bears controlled the ball (trading) for most of the game.
3. Small candlesticks indicate that neither team could move the ball and prices finished about where they started.
4. a long lower shadow indicates that the Bears controlled the ball for part of the game, but lost control by the end and the Bulls made an impressive comeback.
5. a long upper shadow indicates that the Bulls controlled the ball for part of the game, but lost control by the end and the Bears made an impressive comeback.
6. a long upper and lower shadow indicates that the both the Bears and the Bulls had their moments during the game, but neither could put the other away, resulting in a standoff.
If you have any doubts, please ask here. Then only, this will be better for me to give more details in this thread in future.
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Experience 6
Open interest clearly indicates the trend
The simple analysis for newbie’s to find the trend by watching the open interest.
1. If open interest increases and price increases- This is a strong buy trend
2. If open interest increases and price decreases- This is a strong sell trend
3. If open interest decreases and price increases- Weak Buy Trend
4. If open interest decreases and price decrease- Weak Sell Trend.
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Experience 7
Don’t See the total buyers and total Sellers
Every newbie’s are trading with some simple concept by seeing total buyers and total sellers. i have seen many newbie’s in broking firm.
This is totally wrong thing.
If the buyers are high, immediately they will buy the crude (Because Short covering order is also shown in the buyers list. then, how do you decide to go long?)
if the sellers are high, immediately they will sell the crude ( Because Profit booking order is also shown in the sellers list. then, how do you decide to go short?)
but there is no use of watching the total numbers of buyers and sellers quantity
So, If you are watching the total number of buyers and sellers, and decide to trade on that basis, you cannot always win in the trading. so leave it watching this. this is my kind advice for newbie’s...
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Experience 8
Understand the character of the Market, otherwise winning is impossible.
Before coming to the market, understanding the character of the market is very must. Because market always has a special character
Up and Down is the main character. Continuous buying pressure and selling pressure exists for every small up and down.
So anyone cannot control the market. This is what we should understand first.
Then how to make money? Control yourself is the answer.
To control you, we need Money Management, Risk Management, Strategy Management, and Time Management. If we are ready to manage these things, automatically we will become a disciplined trader
In Market, No need to believe Luck, No need to believe God.
Money Makes Money.
For newbie’s, if the price goes opposite to their trade for little movement, immediately they think that trend is changed and wants to reverse the trade. This is totally wrong habit. No need to be nervous at every price movement. Peacefulness in trading is very important to make money. This is not a gambling. This is our main business. This is our profession. Mind it. And know how to do this business peacefully.
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Experience 9
This is a Business? Or Gambling?
How do we treat the market? This is a business? Or gambling?
If you have the product at your home, shops, go down, etc, and hedge the commodities in MCX, then this is your business....
But for normal future traders, this is purely called "Gambling"
But Gambling can become a full time business if you are ready to face the risk in the gambling
In the gambling, Fundamental or Psychological approach is very less important. Only Technical approach with money management gives the good profit constantly
Always expect the unexpected in the market. if you do this, you will definitely received the expected return. But all are thinking about profits only.
Don’t think that how to make a profit....This is very wrong method...
Just think that how to escape from the loss... Automatically, you will receive the profit...
After the market opening, by sitting in front of the computer, everyone is thinking whether buy or sell and sometime changing their decision every ups and downs. This is purely called gambling approach to the market.... Be Strict in your decision and don’t change your decision for small ups and downs, then only, you can do like the business. Totally avoid the overtrading.
Overtrading is especially for sub broker to get quick rich. Not for you. My kind suggestion to newbie’s is, if you come to the market, please come to face the market with pre-planned and highly back tested approach. Please don’t play with your real hard worked money blindly.
Market is not to learn... Market is to earn only... Mind it. Because if you follow the business approach and face the risk in your business every time, you will become a winner in the market.
If you follow the gambling approach, most of the times, you will lose. That is very sure...
So, you take your own decision.
Do you think market as gambling or this is a perfect Business?
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Experience 10
Money Wins? Or Brain Wins?
Always there is some argument between winners and losers.
For example:-
For the most of the losers, they will hold the position until the system square off their positions after reaching 80 percent of MTM Warning. Because they all are holding the position and pray the GOD to save their position when their trades go against their position.
Unfortunately, after square off the position by the software, Market reverses in their favour. But they are not holding the position. So they simple relax by saying this...
“If I have some extra thousands today, I can be ended in the profit" ... So Today I could not make profit"
Think well, is it correct?
This is always bad thing for the losers... Why are you holding your position until your MTM reaches 80 percent of the capital? So this is blind trade. Even I will give them some Cr rupees; they will not make profit due to this type of blind trade.
Usually the expectation of the traders are very high... we cannot say any mistake on them. They all are lots of personal financial problems, so they come to market for their solutions.
But they should understand one thing. Expect the return depending on your capital value only even if you have good strategy to trade. if you need good profit for the living, then come with good amount of capital depending on your expectation.
Always know one thing. This is for the losers only... if you don’t have any back tested strategy, money management, and others trading discipline, you cannot always make profit in the market constantly even if you have lots of Cr rupees.
So ultimately Brain only wins... According to the market, Money is the slave for the brain...brain is not the slave for the money.
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Experience 11
How to find the trend decider point?
If we know the answer to the above question, we can make the profit easily.
Anytime, you can enter the market. Because market is open for all the traders throughout the day. But when to enter and when to exit is the important for day traders.
Importantly, if we hold the wrong position, when to exit from the wrong position is the important question.
Generally there are two types of trend as far as i know.
1. Major Trend
2. Sub Trend
What is Major Trend? It shows the bullish trend or bearish trend. That’s all. Your trade should be on the basis of the major trend if you are a positional trader.
What is Sub Trend? This is the contra trend in the Major Trend.
See one Example. This week, Crude oil is bearish below 7000 as per the Major Trend. We know well, it may achieve 6500 to 6600 levels position ally this week. Here we make a entry with major trend and sell the crude below 7000
But it will not go to 6500 directly from 7000. After testing some downside, it may go little upside. And then it will back.
In the market every action has reaction. So there are buyers at every low price and sellers at every high price. So market may fluctuate whole day. But movement will be with the major trend only
Intraday players mostly trade in the sub-trend. And Positional Players are mostly trading in the Major-Trend.
Ok. Whenever your position goes wrong, you need to exit from wrong position. But when to exit is the question. Whenever the trend reverses against your position, you need to exit. This is the answer.
So Here TIMEFRAME plays the important factor. For crude oil,
5 minutes chart- 40 to 50 points
15 Minutes chart- 50 to 70 points
30 minutes chart- 70 to 100 points
Hourly chart- 100 to 150 points
Trend Reversal point or Exit point for the wrong position will be based on the above points for crude oil in the current volatile market. so Deciding the trend reversal point totally depends on your strategy and your time frame.
So whenever your position goes wrong with your time frame, exiting on the suitable trend reversal point is must to cut the losses shortly.
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Experience 12
Every day we should behave like a new born baby with our every trading.
Dear Newbie’s,
The experienced traders and the winning traders know one thing strongly. They are not worrying about today losses. Because they know that losses are the part of the business.
Did you make loss today? Forget it.
Today Losses cannot be recovered within today.
Every day is the new day for the traders. Every entry should be the fresh entry for the traders. Don’t always get upset with the previous losses. Making the losses in the market is easy. At the same time, I will say that making the profit is also very easy.
But the losses made today cannot be recovered on the same day. This should be understood very strictly by newbie’s.
Don’t worry. Market always exists here. But if you are having any emergency to recover your losses, you cannot exist in the market. Understand first.
Always existing in the market is the art of trading. Even there may be 1000 or 10000 or 1 L or more in your trading account. But you should always exist. You should always speak with market every day. Then only, you can become a winning trader.
Most of the losses are made by the traders at Uptrend rally or downtrend rally. But you cannot expect the same rally again to recover the losses. You should simply trade decently with fresh attitude and recover your losses partly on daily basis.
There is no way to recover the losses on the same day. So just understand. Market always exists here... so please try to exist always with market. Don’t lose money again immediately after the losing trade. Take your own time for every new trade.
This is just my old experience. Don’t mistake me if there is any wrong with me.
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Experience 13
What is your eligible lot size?
Are you using exposure?
Do you know about your eligible lot size?
Brokerage firms are always ready to give the exposure to you. Because they are need brokerage revenue.
Already we know well that market is the riskier investment. Then if you use exposure, you are going to take double risk... very soon; you are going to be out of the market.
Winners never use exposure... even though winners know the trend well; they are not using the exposure....
Because Winners know well that EXPOSURE IS THE OPPOSITE CONCEPT OF MONEY MANAGEMENT AND DISCIPLINE.
So I never use exposure for my trading...
Understand first... According to the commodity market, to do intraday trading, first build your capital up to exchange Span Margin
According to positional trading, you should have 3 time span margin to become a winner....
This is my one of the money management and risk management techniques
This is just my personal experience.
If you are winning by using the exposure, this post is not for you.
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Experience 14
Are you an open-minded person? Or Market-minded person
First of all, we should know the difference between open-minded and market-minded.
If you take a long position, and wait for the prices to go higher, but prices are not going higher as you desire.
In this situation, what are you doing? How much time can you wait?
So I already told about the trend reversal point. Now your price is coming below the trend reversal point and still you are holding your long position and think that market will come up again...Then, you are purely a Market-minded person. This is also called a "bias-trading". I surely say, you cannot win if you are a market-minded person.
Winners are also having open-minded attitude. Whenever the trends willchanges, they are ready to book the loss and trade with the trend. They are always flexible. They are purely riding with market trend for every up and down. So they win.
Bias-Trading can be suitable for long term investors for more than one year. But we are trading in MCX futures. This is not the investment product. This is just a trading product. So we are not going to take delivery.
So Newbie’s should be an open-minded person to get the constant winning in their trades. Accepting the loss is the best strategy whenever the trend changes against you. If you did not accept, market will throw you outside.
Be ready to take quick decision whenever the trend changes against you.
So come with market with open-minded attitude. Every day is the new day. Every day is the new trend. So don’t be like a bias-trader. This advice is for the newbie’s only.
If you are making profit with bias-trading, this post is not for you. Don’t mistake me.
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Experience 15
How to react the crude oil inventories?
Every Wednesday, Crude oil inventories are released in America. We all simply know the difference between previous data and actual data and whether it is bearish or bullish.....
But know one thing.... Data shows bullish... All the traders buy the crude... What will be happen Upper circuit, always not possible...?
Data shows bearish..... All the traders sell the crude...what will happen? Lowercircuit, always not possible...
Then how to react the data? Actually Crude oil inventory data is connected with Fundamental Analysis... not with Technical Analysis...
But, Technical Trading is given importance by winning traders for crude oil trading. So here we can classify into three reactions by three types of traders...
Generally, Fundamentally if Crude oil shows high bullishness or bearishness on its data, It reverses its major trend in intraday....that means sudden up or fall by 100 to 150 points.... in normal circumstance, always it is not going up or down by such more points....
Are you an intraday player? Don’t take any position on Data time... Cut your position before 8 Pm. and watch the data... and See the movement... After Release of the data... don’t take position....you take a strict decision, I will not always trade after 8 pm in crude oil Wednesday....This will save your capital and become a winning trader long time....
Are you a positional trader? Don’t worry about Data release... be with your position which is correctly with major trend... that means ... major trend can be
found from hourly chart... you know well, when the major trend changes with hourly chart... until then, you can hold your position.. No need to worry about data release. If the data is against you, you know well, Losses are the part of the business... and if the trend changes in hourly or 30 minutes chart, you will change your position as per your strategy based on technical analysis
Are you a High Net Worth individual? They always have the good chance anytime.... if the data is negative and crude goes up... they only have the chance to sell again whenever the prices goes up and average their position... because money is always not a problem.. and they are also not worrying about technical analysis.... if the data is positive and crude goes down, they again have chance to buy at lower prices and average their position again...
Generally in normal circumstances... After data release, there will be some volatile movement after 8 Pm........ but after 8.30 Pm, it will go in the same direction most of the time... so you can predict the movement of direction after 8.30 only if you are a momentum trader...
This is my general experience with crude inventory data every week.... So i always suggest intraday players, don’t engage with market and lose your capital... Save the capital for next day trading. This is my kind suggestion. Sometimes it may give good profit... most of the time, it confuses intraday players and takes money...this is the real one.
If it is not relevant with your experience, this post is not for you
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Experience 16
Important Data Timings Affecting Commodity Prices
As per some traders request, this post is given. Because this post is related to fundamental concepts and very important for intraday traders
Generally intraday traders may make profit or lose money. But, which times they make profit and which time they are losing? I hope, profit or loss be May in the given time when the important data is released in international market. Generally in this time, Very volatility is seen in commodity prices
Monday
7.15 PM- Chicago PMI
Tuesday
2 PM- Manufacturing PMI
7.30PM- ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday
12.30 PM- Spanish Unemployment Change
2 PM- Construction PMI
5.45 PM- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
8 PM- Crude oil Inventories Release
Thursday
6PM- Unemployment Claims
7.30- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
8 PM- Natural Gas Storage Release
Friday
7.30 PM- Canada Invery PMI
Generally, PMI Data is related to Manufacturing products... So this day will give very impact on base metals and energy...like copper, nickel, lead, zinc, aluminium, crude oil, natural gas
Unemployment claims and Non-farm employment data will give more impact on bullions
Crude oil data will only affect crude prices, and natural gas data will only affect natural gas prices
Every day at 12.30 PM Europe Market has opening time. so some volatile movement will be seen in all commodities.
Every day- 7PM- US Equity Market opening time- So some volatile movement will be seen in all commodities
So Traders may be with cautions at the above mentioned time as market will be very volatile on data release. This is just for informative purpose... if you have doubt regarding any particular data, kindly ask here... I will tell give you the explanation of the data meaning and its effect.
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Experience 17
Understanding the Price Valuation and Importance of Nymex Crude and USDINR
First of all, we should know why the crude price goes up or down.....
Our MCX market is totally dependent on International Market.
In International Market, Nymex Crude or USDINR goes up or down, our MCX Crude also goes up or down... here i will give you the details about how to calculate
Actually, in the calculation we cannot get exact price. Because MCX is the future Market....Every contract shows 10 to 30 points difference as this is a future contract
For Example:-
If USDINR price is 60 Rupees, Nymex Crude rate is 100$, so MCX Crude rate is 60*100= 6000 (MCX Rate)
If USDINR Price is 61 Rupees, Nymex Crude rate is 100$, so MCX Crude rate is 61*100= 6100 (MCX Rate)
Here, what do you understand? If the USDINR Prices goes 1 Rupee up, Our MCX Crude goes 100 Points up. If the USDINR Prices goes 1 Rupee down, Our MCX Crude goes 100 Points down. So, Give the first importance to the USDINR..Mainly in the morning session, watching the USDINR trend is very important for morning players
Another Example:-
If USDINR price is 60 Rupees, Nymex Crude rate is 100$, so MCX Crude rate is 60*100= 6000 (MCX Rate)
If USDINR price is 60 Rupees, Nymex Crude rate is 101$, so MCX Crude rate is 60*101= 6060 (MCX Rate)
Here, what do you understand? If the Nymex crude goes 1 rupee up, our MCX Crude goes 60 points up.If the Nymex crude goes 1 rupee down, our MCX Crude goes 60 points down.
So the final decision is, first important to USDINR for 100 Points per rupee movement, Second importance is Nymex crude for 60 points per rupee movement.
Understood? Most of the time, when nymex crude breaks day's low in the morning session, our USDINR breaks day's high in the morning session, MCX Crude also breaks high in the morning session.MCX Crude is totally dependent on the price valuation of Nymex Crude and USDINR. I think, this basic knowledge will be enough to enable the price-action trading.
Like that, Gold, Copper, Silver, Natural Gas and other commodities are valued... but Nymex crude is always easy to calculate and trade... other commodities are traded in different lots size in comex. so the lot size should be known from comex to calculate other commodities... but Nymex Crude lot size and MCX Crude lot size are the same. So calculation is easy....
When you are multiplying the both value, the calculated value and MCX value will not be same because of the difference between Spot price and Futures price... but movement of the ups or down will be same....
If you have any doubt, kindly ask in this thread... I will clarify if I can....
If you have any other calculation method, this post is not for you.
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Experience 18
Colourful trading method destroys colourful life
This is a small post only and for newbie’s only.
I have seen in much broker office, more newbie’s are watching green and blue colours for bullish and red colour for bearish and then give their entries.
If they hold the long position, whenever they see the red colours in the terminal, they get more emotion.
If they hold the short position, whenever they see the blue or green colours in the terminal, they get more emotion.
There is nothing in the colours. They are showed just for the difference in Bid and Ask price. No need to be nervous.
Dear newbie’s,
Up and Down is the character of the market. If you are very nervous and emotional by seeing the colours, just change the colours and disable that function in your terminal.
This is not a good method for trading. Create the good strategy rather than being nervous for small price movement.
Maybe, this post may not be interesting... but more newbie’s are using. And also used in my beginning life of the trading before 5 years and made some losses. So this is one of my experiences
So, know that, Colourful Trading Method destroys your colourful life
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Experience 19
Learn the Mega and Implement the Mini
This is also for newbie’s.
Every new trader are searching, learning and testing any trading methods and strategies.
Before using the real money for the strategy, we should do paper trading.
After getting profit in paper trading, they are coming to market with real money. But they are doing the important mistake here.
In paper trading, they are trading with mini lots, but in real trading, they are trading with mega lots. If they get nervous with their strategy in the beginning stage of the real trading, they make huge losses due to Mega Lots.
So my kind opinion to newbie’s is,
Learn the mega lots in paper trading. Because if there is any loss in paper trading, you will change and modify your trading method due to big loss in paper trading. But if you learn with mini lots in paper trading, you will not concentrate on strategy. You can trade always with Mega lots and more lot sizes in Paper Trading. Calculate the profit and loss.
If you satisfy with paper trading, come to the real trading and trade with mini lots for some months until you are perfectly satisfy with your strategy. if you are not satisfied, you can immediately exit due to small losses in Mini Lots.
So, this is always better for newbie’s to follow, Learn with Mega Lots and Trade with Mini Lots.
I followed this method in the beginning life of the trading career. So it helped me to learn the market well in real trading with mini lots. As I am experienced now with my strategy, currently I increased my lot sizes heavily.....it works for me....this is one of the experiences from me.
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Experience 20
"Averaging a Losing position is like catching a falling knife"
Yes. Anyone cannot find the top of the day or bottom of the day.
When the market breaks low, newbie’s think that this price will be the day's low. So he decides to go long.
But, market still makes new low again. So he averages his position by thinking this new low is the days low.
But Whole day market trades with downtrend. Then, he blames the market or he blames his luck
Don’t increase your lot size and don’t average your losing position. This is totally opposite to the disciplined trading.
Averaging is a good concept. But newbie’s are using this concept wrongly.
I will tell you example.
I got a sell signal at 6300, and my stop loss is 6450.
So, I sold one lot at 6300. But again market comes to 6400. This is a good opportunity for me to sell again. so i again sold at 6400.
But My Exit point for the two lots is 6450 only if there is contra trend.
If you follow the above method, there is no problem with averaging concept. Without knowing the trend and exit point, don’t average your position
Crude oil is coming down from 7750 to 6200 within two months.
Think now, how can you average position ally? Exiting in the losing time at correct trend reversal point is always important for safe trading and protecting your capital
Without knowing trend, don’t average your losing position and don’t lose your capital.
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Experience 21
"Practice makes a man perfect- Indian Commodity Brokers are the main reason for the loss of our Indian Traders"
This is the important one for all the traders.
Our Indian Traders have lost their real money in trading. Do you know why?
Bur Foreign Traders have not lost their real money while comparing with Indian Traders.
Usually, In Foreign Exchanges, Traders are given the chance for trading in demo account with demo money. They learn all the things like using exposure, money management, applying various techniques, and they learn various lessons through demo software trading
But there is no demo account in MCX for our Indian Traders. We still do Paper Trading only for our practice. But Paper Trading is not comfortable for Indian Traders. They should trade with demo software. But our Indian Brokers are not giving any demo software for practice. So our Indian Traders lose their real money in real trading without any prior experience
Anyway leave it No Problem. I will tell you how to make profit in crude oil trading.
Many times, I told that, MCX Crude oil is totally dependent on Nymex Crude and USDINR. You can Practice both the product in foreign exchange with demo software. If you make profit in their software, you can do real trading in MCX. And you can also learn the movement of foreign market well.
I first gained my money in foreign exchange in the demo account. After constant profit with demo account, I started real trading in MCX and making constant profit.
All newbie’s should follow this step. I will tell you where you can open this account.
Example
There are lots of demo brokers. Better one is GCI trading dot com and download Meta trader platform. They give 50000$ for demo account. You first make it double. Then come to MCX trading. You will surely win in MCX.
See that report. They gave me 50000$. i made profit 3979$. Then, Why cannot make a profit in MCX? Think Well, Do Demo trading for better practice. And then come to real Trading in MCX. If you make loss in demo trading, don’t come to MCX real trading. Don’t lose your hard-earned money. Don’t lose your life.
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Experience 22
"Triggering the stop loss order of the intraday traders is the Main Goal of the Market makers"
I don’t know how many traders are feeling like this.
But every newbie will feel this. I know.
What Newbie’s feel?
"Sir, if I buy crude oil, immediately it comes down
Sir, if I sell crude oil, immediately it goes up
Sir, Is anyone watching my order? My trades?
Sir, I have some doubt on the exchange and my brokers. They disclose about my order."
This is really a wrong assumption. Anyone cannot see your order. but market makers can predict your stop loss level. So they can try to trigger the stop loss level.
Example.
Crude is trading at day high. Day high is 6380. So I think that, it will not touch 6400. So i sell the crude at current price 6380 by placing stop loss at 6400 with target of 20 points.
Newbie’s feel that’s will not touch 6400. But market makers feel that there will be more stop loss order of the sellers at 6400. So again they move the market to 6400 and triggers the seller's stop loss and again crude comes down.
Most of the times, It happens for every trader. Stop loss should not be to the particular amount. Rather, this should be to the particular unbeatable point.
Near every round numbers, there will be more stop loss orders. So think before deciding your stop loss level.
For example:-
Crude bought at 6380. Stop loss 6350. Target 6400. (But I feel Stop loss 6344, target 6396)
Crude sold at 6380, stop loss 6400, target 6350. (But I feel stop loss 6406, target 6354)
Can anyone understand how I fix my stop loss and target?
If anyone has the doubt, ask me I will clarify in this thread.
Otherwise, I decide that you understand my concept.
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Experience 23
Don’t allow anyone to interfere in your trading decisions and avoid such persons.
This is your Business. Mind it
This is very difficult situation in the market. When you enter the market, Decide your entry point and exit.
Don’t Change after entering the market. This is not a disciplined trading
Generally,
All Traders have the right to give the comments about market. But Comments are varying from every trader.
For Example:-
You think that market will go down. So you sell the crude oil today. But Your Best Friend Says Crude will go up. What will you do?
Which is given the first priority? Friendship or Business?
Trading is a business for me. This is my business. I am always not allowing my Friends, Relatives, and Brokers to comment about my trading decision.
If they give any comments about my decision, I will simply say “Wait and Watch" . Because I am always correct with my entry and exit point before entering every trade.
Don’t change your exit point after entering the market. Avoid these friends.
If you take a buy position, someone will say, market will go up. Don’t appreciate them.
If you take a sell position, someone will say, market will go up. Don’t hate them.
Avoid both the persons. Don’t allow anyone to interfere in your trading business.
If you are not confident in your trading decision, you may take your suggestion from seniors. This is ok. But don’t ask with more persons. Everyone will say different answers.
Always follow only one system if you have a good strategy.
Always follow only one person if you don’t have any strategy and have confident and satisfactory in his decision.
Simply Said,
I don’t like any comments about my trading position. I know whether it will go up or down. I know what to do if it goes up. I know what to if it goes down.
Friends,
This is your business ... This is not a gambling. So you should be very confident in your trading decision and exit point. Please don’t allow anyone to interfere in your trading decisions.
If you think yourself about your trading, you can become a expert in your business very soon
This Post is for making self-discipline with your own analysis and to know and be sincere in your business....
We are not allowing others to interfere in the other business...
Is trading an exception to this? This is also a super business... So don’t allow anyone to interfere...
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Experience 24
"MCX Market is the "COPY PASTE MARKET"
- So Profit Making is very easy
Just think one minute,
Determination of the Price in MCX Crude
1. Is Indian Traders having such capacity to fix the price of the commodity market?
2. Is there any market movers in India having capacity of buying and selling the tons of lots?
3.Is there any possibility to create the special community for operating the market like America?
The Answer for the entire question is "NO NO NO"
Indian Traders have nothing in their hand. Yes, we are totally a copy paste market.
Yes.
We are copying the Nymex Crude and INR in International Market and
We are pasting in the Indian Market.
So, Technical Analysis based on the MCX Crude is no use. Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis based on the international market chart will only give the profit to Indian traders.
As Technology is improving, Our Indian Market Makers are using the automated trading system attached with international market like MT4, to Place they buy or sell orders in the MCX, and Moves the Prices in the MCX.
In this post, i did not explain the full concept clearly. i just gave the basic thing only. In the next post, i will explain in details.
I will ask you a simple question. Think it and reply it. This question is to the my followers.
For Example:-
INR Rate is 60 Rupees- Constant
Crude Inventory data comes at 8:00:00 PM, Now MCX Crude Price is 6000, Nymex Crude is trading at 100$ at 8:00:00 PM.
Data is released as positive. So 8:00:01 PM, Nymex Crude price is 101$. MCX Crude price is 6060 at 8:00:01 PM.
OK? Just see one second difference. 60 Points up move happen.
Who bought this 60 Points? Who sold this 60 Points?
Normal Traders cannot think within one second. But Our Indian Market makers moved the prices 60 points higher within a second. How do they know?
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Experience 25
Positional Trading is the Express Train. Intraday Trading is the passenger train. Which trading do you prefer? Which trader you are?
Trading is a wonderful Journey. All people are willing to participate in this journey.
There are two types of people in this journey.
Common People= Middle Class People or Traders with small capital = they are always liking to travel in the passenger train. (Intraday Trading)
VIPs and Old Age people = High Net Worth Individuals or Traders who is engaged with another profession or business with no time to watch the market. They always like to travel in the Express train. (Positional Trading)
Advantages of the Passenger Train (Intraday Trading)
1. Very Low Ticket Fare (Very Low Capital is enough)
2. All people can catch the train at their place (Anytime, you can enter in the market and exit from market when you reach your destination (target or stop loss)
Disadvantages of the Passenger Train (Intraday Trading)
1. if the express train is coming on the track, this passenger train will be stopped in the station for giving the way to express train. (If the positional trend is bullish or intraday trend is bearish, intraday traders will sell and positional traders will buy. At least positional traders will make money by taking the money of the intraday traders. So Intraday traders always give their money to positional traders)
2. Ticket fare is low but extra expenses are high. As passenger train is stopped in all the small stations, we will do more expenses in the small station to eat, drink, etc. so we will make expenses more than our ticket fare. This is the normal condition. (Brokerages and Other Slippages are high comparing to our trading profit in intraday trading. I have seen more traders losing their capital intraday and giving the brokerage more than their capital as number of trading per day is high)
Advantages of the Express Train (Positional Trading)
1. Train will be stopped in the important stations only. We can catch the train in the important stations only ( In Positional Trading, Whenever we see the major trend reversal point, at that time, we should enter the market or exit from market. All the prices is the correct price to enter or exit)
2. Number of Stations are very less to reach the destination (Number of trading per month is very less to achieve our target)
3. No over Expenses in the station (As number of trading is very less, brokerages and other slippages are very low)
4. Peaceful Journey (Positional trading never gives the way for emotions, greed, fear, etc. This is purely a peaceful trading system to trade only trend to trend only)
Disadvantages of the Express Train (Positional Trading)
1. High Ticket Fare (High capital required to do positional trading)
2. Common People cannot prefer this (As positional trading requires high capital, The common people with low capital cannot do positional trading )
3. Preparation is required to book the ticket. Before catching the express train, we should reserve the ticket, and get the allotment, after confirmation, we can travel in the express train (In Positional trading, Back testing of the strategy, Paper.
Trading is required to become a full time trader. After getting profit constantly from your strategy, you can do positional trading)
I am purely a positional Trader
Just for making the trading business as your interest, I have given with real journey examples... if there is any mistake in the concept, kindly ignore and excuse me.
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Experience 26
When are you going to make a fresh profit? How many days will it take to recover your old losses?
This question belongs to 99 percent of the traders. Basically 99 percent of the traders are making losses in commodity market.
In the current market scenario, Number of traders is very high. But there are three types of traders.
Type 1: I am trading in the market to make fresh profit every day
Type 2: I am trading in the market to recover my old losses. Currently it is recovered slowly as I am trading with proven strategy and discipline
Type 3: I am trading in the market to recover my old losses. But, Still I don’t know how to make the profits and what wrongs with me. I am not able to recover my losses. So I lose again and again.
In the beginning stage, to learn the market, we should cross the type 3.
If you get proven strategy and follow with discipline, you will be shifted to type 2.
If you pass in the type 2 patiently with hard work, your dream will come into real as Type 1
Everyone wants to be type 1. But here, how many traders are in the type 1?
They only know about their position.
I proudly say that I am a type 1 trader.
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Experience 27
Pros and cons of 5 minutes and 30 minutes
5 Minutes time frame - The Eagle View Analysis
1. Support and Resistance is found at every small breakout points.
2. Stop Loss is minimised at every small breakout reversal.
3. Target is maximised at the trending market
4. It is not working in sideways market.
5. It gives more wrong signals when there is narrow range movement
6. Number of trades per month is very high
7. Brokerages and other slippages are very high if compared to higher time frame
8. Watching the market at every five minutes is important which very inconvenience to all is
9. Profit ratio is very low if compared to higher time frames
10. Algo Trading setup is required to act on the signals timely
30 Minutes Time Frame - An Eagle View Analysis
1. Support and Resistance is found on the major trend reversal points only
2. Number of Trades is very low per month
3. Wrong signals are very low per month
4. Profit Ratio is very high if we follow higher time frames
5. Very peaceful trading can be done if we follow higher time frames
6. No Way for emotions and fear
7. It works good in sideways market and avoids wrong signal
8. Brokerages and other slippages are very low
9. Stop loss and target is very high which is not suitable for small traders
10. Higher time frame is the best performer for crude oil positional trading
After analysing and using the real money, and losing some money in the lower time frames, I got this decision to follow the higher time frames. For last five years, I earned good money by using the higher time frames only. I never used the lower time frames. But recently I invented one new strategy which gives good profit on back testing but still some changes are needed for using in real-time and to avoid the wrong signals.....
So, according to my experience,
Higher Time Frame is always good for earning decent income every month. But Money management, Risk Management, and Patience is must to earn decent money from higher time frames
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Experience 28
Attitude and self confidence for Accepting the loss and own mistake
Sometimes, it happens in the trading for the winners also. If we see the profit in our trading account, we are the first person to be over confident in our trading strategies. But if we are starting to make the losses in trading, how we face this situation is to be given great importance.
Existing in the market is the first priority
Making the profit is the second priority
We should not lose our entire capital. That is enough to recover all the losses and become millionaire one day. So, we should always exist in the market. This should be the first aim for winners.
Even though, I made a lot of winning trades, sometimes, troubles come to the winning trader. It also came to me. At that time, i remember this story and get boosted again to trade in the market
You can also read and boost yourself
A Businessman was deep in debt and could not see any way out.
Creditors and Suppliers were demanding payments. He sat in the park, deep in thought, wondering if anything could save his company from bankruptcy.
Suddenly an old man appeared before him and asked,
"I can see that something is troubling you seriously".
After listening patiently the old man said,
"I believe I can help you".
He asked the man his name, wrote out a cheque and put it into his hands saying,
"Take this money, meet me here exactly one year from today... and you can pay me back at that time".
Then he turned and disappeared as quickly as he had come.
The businessman saw in his hands a cheque for $ 500,000.Signed by Warren Buffet, one of the richest men in the world.
"I can erase my worries instantly" he realized.
But instead, the man decided to put the uncased cheque in his safe, knowing that it might give him the strength to work out to save his business and to use this only in case of dire emergency.
With changed thinking he negotiated better deals, restructured his business and worked rigorously with full zeal and enthusiasm and got several big deals.
Within few months, he was out of debt and started making money once again.
Exactly one year later he returned to the park with the uncased cheque.
As agreed, the old man appeared.
But just as the businessman was about to hand him back the cheque and share his success story, a nurse came running up and grabbed the old man.
"I’m so glad I caught him" she cried.
"I hope he hasn’t been bothering you much.
"He always escapes from the mental hospital and tells people that he is Warren Buffet", saying this she took the old man away.
The surprised man just stood there, stunned! All year long he had been dealing thinking that he had half a million dollars behind him...
........................
It’s not the money, real or imagined that turns our life around.
It is our attitude and Self-confidence that gives us the power to achieve anything & everything that we want.
It’s not the money, real or imagined that turns our life around.
confidence that gives us the power to achieve anything & confidence that gives us the power to achieve anything &
