Japan, ICRC 2003
Daejeon, UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop, 20-25 Sept 2009 Satellite Anomalies and
Space Weather
By Lev Dorman for INTAS team(A. Belov, L. Dorman,, E. Eroshenko, L. Gromova, N. Iucci,
D. Ivanus,. O. Kryakunova , A. Levitin, M. Parisi, N. Ptitsyna, M. Tyasto, E. Vernova, G. Villoresi,
V. Yanke)
Japan, ICRC 2003
AbstractResults of the INTAS Project, which aims to improve the methods of safeguarding satellites in the Earth’s magnetosphere from the negative effects of the space environment, are presented. Anomaly data from the “Kosmos” series satellites in the period 1971–1999 are combined in one database, together with similar information on other spacecrafts. This database contains, beyond the anomaly information, various characteristics of the space weather: geomagnetic activity indices (Ap, AE and Dst), fluxes and fluencies of electrons and protons at different energies, high energy cosmic ray variations and other solar, interplanetary and solar wind data. A comparative analysis of the distribution of each of these parameters relative to satellite anomalies was carried out for the total number of anomalies (about 6000 events), and separately for high (5000 events) and low (about 800 events) altitude orbit satellites. No relation was found between low and high altitude satellite anomalies. Daily numbers of satellite anomalies, averaged by a superposed epoch method around sudden storm commencements and proton event onsets for high (>1500 km) and low (<1500 km) altitude orbits revealed a big difference in a behavior. Satellites were divided on several groups according to the orbital characteristics (altitude and inclination). The relation of satellite anomalies to the environmental parameters was found to be different for various orbits that should be taken into account under developing of the anomaly frequency models.
Japan, ICRC 2003
Satellite anomaly data
The main contribution was from NGDC satellite anomaly database, created by J. Allen and D. Wilkinson.
+“Kosmos” data (circular orbit at 800 km altitude and 74º inclination)
+1994 year anomalies - Walter Thomas report (Thomas, 1995).
+
The satellites characteristics - from different Internet sources:http://spacescience.nasa.gov/missions/index.htmhttp://www.skyrocket.de/space/index2.htmhttp://hea-www.harvard.edu/QEDT/jcm/space/jsr/jsr.htmlhttp://www.astronautix.com/index.htm
Japan, ICRC 2003
Satellite and Anomaly Number
~300 satellites~6000 satellite anomalies
Japan, ICRC 2003
Red, Green and Blue Groups
Japan, ICRC 2003
Period with big number of satellite anomalies
Upper panel – cosmic ray activity near the Earth: variations of 10 GV cosmic ray density; solar proton (> 10 MeV and >60 MeV) fluxes.
Lower panel – geomagnetic activity: Kp- and Dst-indices.
Vertical arrows on the upper panel correspond to the malfunction moments.
Japan, ICRC 2003
Other example
Upper panel – cosmic ray activity near the Earth: variations of 10 GV cosmic ray density; electron (> 2 MeV) fluxes – hourly data.
Vertical arrows correspond to the malfunction moments. Lower row – all malfunctions.
Lower panel – geomagnetic activity: Kp- and Dst-indices.
Japan, ICRC 2003
Seasonal dependence
Anomaly’s frequency (all orbits)with statistical errors
27-day averaged frequencies and correspondinghalf year wave
Japan, ICRC 2003
Seasonal dependence
Satellite anomalies frequency and Ap-index averaged over the period 1975-1994. The curve with points is the 27-day running mean values; the grey band corresponds to the 95 % confidence interval. The sinusoidal curve is a semiannual wave with maxima in equinoxes best fitting the frequency data.
Japan, ICRC 2003
Seasonal dependence (different orbits)
27-day averaged frequencies and correspondinghalf year wave for different satellite groups
Japan, ICRC 2003
Time distribution of anomalies
Japan, ICRC 2003
Space Weather IndicesSolar activity Solar windGeomagnetic activitySolar protonsElectronsGround Level Cosmic Rays
~30 indices in total
Japan, ICRC 2003
Solar activity
27-day running averaged Sunspot Numbers and Solar Radio Flux
We use
SSN and F10.7 – daily Sunspot Numbers and radio fluxes;
SSN27, SSN365 – 1 year and 1 rotation running averaged SSN
Japan, ICRC 2003
Geomagnetic activity
Daily Ap-index and minimal (for this day) Dst-index
We use
Apd, Apmax – daily and maximal Ap-index;
AEd, AEmax – daily and maximal AE-index; DSTd, DSTmin – daily and minimal Dst-index;
Japan, ICRC 2003
Protons and electrons
Daily proton and electron fluencies
We use
p10, p100 – daily proton (>10, >100 MeV) fluencies (GOES);
p10d, p60d – daily proton (>10, >60 MeV) fluxes (IMP);
p10max, p60max – maximal hourly proton (>10, >60 MeV) fluxes (IMP); e2 – daily electron (>2 MeV) fluence (GOES); e2d, e2max – daily and maximal electron (>2 MeV) fluх (GOES);
Japan, ICRC 2003
Solar Wind
Daily solar wind speed and intensity of interplanetary magnetic field
We use
Vsw, Vmax – daily and maximal solar wind speed;
Bm – daily IMF intensity; Bzd, Bzmin – daily and minimal z-component IMF (GSM); Bznsum – sum of negative z-component values;
Japan, ICRC 2003
Cosmic Ray Activity Indices +
Daily CRA-indices and sum of negative IMF z-component
We use da10, CRA – indices of cosmic ray activity, obtained from
ground level CR observations (Belov et al., 1999); Eakd, Eakmax – estimation of daily and maximal energy, transferred
from solar wind to magnetosphere (Akasofu, 1987);
Japan, ICRC 2003
SSC and anomalies
Averaged behavior of satellite anomalies frequency near Sudden Storm Commencements
634 days with SSC in total
a – all stormsb – storms with Ap>50 nTc – storms with Ap>80 nT
Japan, ICRC 2003
SSC and anomalies Averaged behavior
Ap, Dst – indices of geomagnetic activity and satellite malfunction frequency near Sudden Storm Commencements
Malfunctions start later and last longer than magnetic storms
Japan, ICRC 2003
Proton events and anomaliesAveraged behavior of p>10, p>100 MeV and satellite malfunction frequency during proton event periods.The enhancement with >300 pfu were used
Japan, ICRC 2003
Proton events and anomalies
Mean satellite anomaly frequencies in 0- and 1-days of proton enhancements
in dependence on the maximal > 10 MeV flux
Japan, ICRC 2003
Proton events and anomalies
Probability of any anomaly (high altitude – high inclination group) in dependence on the maximal proton > 10 and >60 MeV flux
Japan, ICRC 2003
Proton and electron hazardson the different orbits
Mean proton and electron fluencies on the anomaly day
Japan, ICRC 2003
Anomalies and different indices (precursors)
Mean behavior of Ap-index in anomaly periods (GEO satellites)
Japan, ICRC 2003
Anomalies and different indices (precursors)
Mean behavior of >2 MeV electron fluence in anomaly periods (GEO satellites)
Japan, ICRC 2003
Anomalies and different indices (precursors)
Mean behavior of solar wind speed in anomaly periods (GEO satellites)
Japan, ICRC 2003
Models of the anomaly frequency
Example of frequency model (GEO):
We checked ~ 30 different Space Weather parameters and a lot of their combinations
We used the parameters for anomaly day and for several preceding days
Only simplest linear regression models were checked (exclusions for e and p indices)
Obtained models contain 3-8 different geo- heliophysical parameters
The models appear to be different for different satellite groups
3
5
2
5
5
52.1
4
13 Bz105.1Vsw109.1Ap103.8e2104.1f HL
da10105.1sf102)d60p(106.1)100p(101.1 4375.0435.04
Japan, ICRC 2003
Models of the anomaly frequencyhigh alt.- low incl.
cc=0.39
e>2 MeVApd, AEd, sfp60d, p100
VswBzd, da10
low alt.-high incl.
cc=0.2
e>2 MeVCRAApd, AEd, sfVsw, Bzd
high alt.-high incl. cc=0.7
p>100 MeV, p60d Eak, Bznsum, SSN365
Japan, ICRC 2003
SEP FORECAST STEPS
(FROM POSTER PS-18)
1. AUTOMATICALLY DETERMINATION OF THE SEP EVENT START BY NEUTRON MONITOR DATA
2. DETERMINATION OF ENERGY SPECTRUM OUT OF MAGNETOSPHERE BY THE METHOD OF COUPLING FUNCTIONS
3. DETERMINATION OF TIME OF EJECTION, SOURCE FUNCTION AND PARAMETERS OF PROPAGATION BY SOLVING AN INVERSE PROBLEM
4. FORECASTING OF EXPECTED SEP FLUXES AND COMPARISON WITH OBSERVATIONS; CORRECTION OF THE INVERSE PROBLEM SOLUTION
5. COMBINED FORECASTING ON THE BASIS OF NEUTRON MONITOR AND SATELLITE DATA
Japan, ICRC 2003
Principles of Magnetic Storms Forecasting
Japan, ICRC 2003
SummaryThe relation between Space Weather parameters
and frequency of satellite anomalies are different for different satellite groups (orbits)
The models simulated anomaly frequency in different orbits are developed and could be adjusted for forecasting (mainly energetic particles and magnetic activity)
The models for forecasting of energetic particle events and magnetic activity can be developed in near future on the basis of ground and satellite observations
