Source: Daily FX

Value Previous Change YTD Value Previous Change YTD

117.6452 117.6300 0.01% -0.46% 1.1150 1.1171 -0.19% -2.78%

105.4641 105.4127 0.05% 2.01% 1.0993 1.0994 -0.01% -2.51%

106.8725 106.8878 -0.01% 1.80% 0.8603 0.8607 -0.05% 1.57%

136.9241 135.9884 0.69% 4.38% 1.2960 1.2975 -0.12% -0.98%Source: NBS 108.6200 108.4700 0.14% -4.29%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Value Next decision Value

2.50% 7.11.2019 0.00%

Deposit facility 1.25% 2.00%

Lending facility 3.75% 0.75%

Repo operations (one week) 1.26% -0.75%

Source: NBS Source: Bloomberg

21.10.2019 18.10.2019 Change (bps) 21.10.2019 18.10.2019 Change(bps)

1.28% 1.28% 0.00 -0.464% -0.462% -0.002

1.69% 1.69% 0.00 -0.549% -0.547% -0.002

1.98% 1.99% -0.01 -0.438% -0.438% 0.000

2.16% 2.16% 0.00 -0.408% -0.407% -0.001

Source: Reuters -0.349% -0.351% 0.002

Note: Values are with 1 day delay Source: Bloomberg, EBF

Note: Values are with 1 day delay

Value Previous Change (bps) Value Previous Change(bps)

1.823% 1.850% -0.027 -0.340% -0.350% 0.010

1.934% 1.953% -0.019 -0.249% -0.271% 0.022

1.934% 1.952% -0.018 0.067% 0.024% 0.043

-0.797% -0.795% -0.002 1.583% 1.588% -0.005

-0.774% -0.775% 0.001 1.552% 1.562% -0.010

-0.701% -0.706% 0.005 1.671% 1.674% -0.003

Sources: ICE, Bloomberg Sources: IBA, Bloomberg

Libor 3M (CHF) USD ISDA 5Y FIXING

Libor 6M (CHF) USD ISDA 10Y FIXING

Libor 3M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 5Y FIXING

Libor 6M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 10Y FIXING

Libor 1M (CHF) USD ISDA 3Y FIXING

BELIBOR 6M EURIBOR3M

Libor interest rates Interest rate Swap

Libor 1M (USD) EURIBOR ISDA 3Y FIXING

BEONIA EONIA

BELIBOR1M

EURIBOR1MBELIBOR3M

EURIBOR6M

€STR

United Kingdom (BOE) 7.11.2019

Switzerland (SNB) 12.12.2019

Serbia - Interbank interest rates Serbia Europe - Interbank interest rates - Europe

Next decision

Key policy rate Eurozone (ECB) 24.10.2019

US (FED) 30.10.2019

GBP/RSD GBP/USD

USD/JPY

National Bank of Serbia Interest rates Major interest rates

EUR/RSD EUR/USD

USD/RSD EUR/CHF

CHF/RSD EUR/GBP

FX rates and money market

FX rates on domestic market International markets

Currency Currency

Key events

TimeCountry/

RegionEvent Period Previous Forecast

Overall trading at the Belgrade Stock Exchange was RSD 10.7 mln (EUR 91k). There was no bond trading.

Euro marginally changed against the dollar ($1.1150).

U.S. equities rose on positive trade developments as the reporting season entered its second week. S&P 500 up 0.7%, Dow Jones added 0.2%, Nasdaq gained

0.9%.

European stocks advanced as banking sector shares climbed. Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.6%, FTSE 100 up 0.2%, DAX up 0.9%, CAC 40 up 0.2%.

Oil lower (WTI $53.31 and Brent $58.96).

Gold lower ($1484.60).

Financial Market Analysis

Treausury and ALM department

DAILY REPORT

Flash

Dinar marginally changed against the euro (117.6452).

Bank of the Group

October 22, 2019

1.08

1.09

1.1

1.11

1.12

1.13

1.14EUR/USD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

117

118

119

120

121

122EUR mio EUR/RSD

Turnover on FX market (right axis)

Date Currency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Moody's S&P Fitch

Ba3 BB BB+

Outlook Stable Positive Stable

Date 17.3.2017 14.12.2018 27.9.2019 Sources: Bloomberg, JPMorgan

Source: Bloomberg

Date Value Previous Date Value Previous

04.02.2016 2.75% 2.79% 21.05.2018 0.45% 0.47%

02.03.2017 2.64% 2.65% 27.05.2019 0.84% 1.00%

07.02.2017 3.48% 3.49% 18.06.2019 1.15% 1.23%

24.10.2017 4.05% 4.65% 20.06.2019 1.48% 1.68%

11.06.2019 3.39% 3.63% 11.06.2018 2.50%

05.02.2019 4.00% 3.74% 09.10.2019 1.89% 3.25%

01.10.2019 3.40% 3.40% 06.02.2019 3.60% 4.20%

07.08.2018 4.80% 4.85% Source: Public Debt Management Agency

23.06.2016NBS key rate +

0.25%

NBS key rate +

0.25%

Source: Public Debt Management Agency

Source: Public Debt Management Agency Source: Public debt Management Agency

Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa Sources: Ministry of finance, Banca Intesa

Vrednost Prethodna UST spred

Serbia 7y 2020 2.320% 2.372% 0.671%

Serbia 10y 2021 2.289% 2.295% 2.289%

Srbija 10g 2029 1.087% 1.063%Source: Bloomberg

Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

7 years

10 years

24 month amortizing

Serbian Eurobonds yields (USD)

15 years

2 years 5 years

3 years 7 years

5 years 10 years

Maturity

3 months 53 weeks

6 months 2 years

53 weeks 3 years

Maturity

RSD Government securities EUR Government securities

Instrument Value

No scheduled auctions for today

Serbia Credit rating

Fixed income

Scheduled auctions

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180bps JP Morgan EMBI Srbija

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

Serbian 10y Eurobond 2029

Price Yield (right axis)

1.52.53.54.55.56.57.58.59.5

10.511.512.513.514.5

Yields on RSD government securities primary auctions

3m 6m 53w 2y 3y NBS key rate 5y 7y 10y

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0

Yields on EUR government securities primary auctions

53w 2y 3y 5y 7y 10y 15y

2

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

Sourc: Bloomberg

TGAS 12,519 4,006,080 0.55% 0.96% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

GMON 2,001 3,565,782 0.00% -10.43% 0.44 7.25 5.97

NIIS 679 1,628,242 -0.59% 0.00% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

AERO 819 411,957 1.11% -0.12% 1.13 8.22 14.52

IMPL 3,301 353,207 0.00% 0.89% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

STUP 7,001 287,041 6.08% 18.08% 1.50 73.79 2.02

HMBG 686 114,562 0.15% 0.15% 0.34 28.46 1.19

GSFD 676 101,400 19.43% 19.43% 0.37 5.05 9.36

KOPB 6,300 56,700 -3.08% -3.08% #N/A N/A #N/A N/A #N/A N/A

OMOL 850 55,250 0.00% 0.00% 0.18 66.73 0.43

UNPR 500 35,500 0.00% 0.00% 0.50 #N/A N/A -4.67

VINZ 408 29,784 -32.00% -32.00% 0.04 0.81 4.44

Sources: Belgrade Stock Exchange; Bloombeg

-0.24%

-0.15%

0.06%

0.43%

-0.65%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

sofix bet-c

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

dj balkan

Source: Bloomberg

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 Balkan 473.87 476.98 0.64%

SOFIX Bugarska 565.19 564.83 -16.57%

BET Rumunija 9,580.63 9,539.91 23.56%

Crobex Hrvatska 2,008.19 2,013.05 8.97%

SBITOP Slovenija 873.85 875.13 8.35%

Regional stock exchanges

Index Country/Region ValueValue from the previous

dayChange YTD

OMOLJICA AD OMOLJICA 277,843,750 Din.

UNIPROM A.D. NOVI PAZAR 100,945,000 Din.

VINO ZUPA AD ALEKSANDROVAC 80,934,960 Din.

HEMPRO AD BEOGRAD 199,606,792 Din.

GEOSONDA - FUNDIRANJE AD BEO 51,603,136 Din.

KOPAONIK AD BEOGRAD 875,107,800 Din.

AERODROM NIKOLA TESLA AD BEO 28,686,399,651 Din.

IMPOL SEVAL AD SEVOJNO 3,110,489,387 Din.

STUP VRSAC AD VRSAC 207,754,675 Din.

MESSER TEHNOGAS AD 12,977,921,502 Din.

GOSA MONTAZA AD VELIKA PLANA 491,661,708 Din.

NIS AD NOVI SAD 110,718,011,600 Din.

P/BV P/E ROE Market capitalization

The most traded stocks on Belgrade Stock Exchange from the previous day

Company Ticker Price RSDTurnovor

RSD

Daily

change

Weekly

change

Ratios P / B P / EBelex15 0,61 2,44

Turnover 10,748,861 RSD 33,979,772 RSD -68.37%Source: Belgrade Stock Exchange

91,379 € 288,915 € -68.37%

Belex 15 749.27 748.57 0.09% -1.72%

Belex line 1,609.04 1,607.21 0.11% 1.12%

Belgrade Stock Exchange

Value Previous value Change YTD

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1,900

1,950

2,000

2,050

CROBEX

500

550

600

650

700

750

SOFIX

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

BET

300

400

500

600DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

650

670

690

710

730

750

770

790 Belex 15

-0.59%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

0.55%

1.11%

NIIS MTLC KMBN JESV FITO ENHL ALFA TGAS AERO

Daily change of Belex 15 members

1,400

1,600

1,800Belex line

700

750

800

850

900

950

SBITOP

3

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

nasdaq dax

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

nikkei dj stoxx

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Izvor: Bloomberg Izvor: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Snežana Topalović 201-1400 Snežana Spasojević 201-3621Vladimir Gavović 201-1263 Dragomir Milin 201-3622Nikolina Guteša 201-1400 Biljana Radosavljević 201-3610research@bancaintesa.rs broker@bancaintesa.rs

Darko Karanović 201-3624

Boban Todorović 201-3627Dragan Ignja 201-3626

201-3625trz_sales@bancaintesa.rs

ContactFinancial Market analysis Customer execution office (fixed income)

Dealing

Disclaimer

This overview is written to inform and does not represent a call for making business decisions and buying or selling mentioned financial instruments. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not guarantee exactness of summoned data.

Information, opinions and commentaries in this overview are given with the best intention according to available data provided from relevant sources and as a result of professional attitudes and orientations of analytical team working in

Banca Intesa ad Beograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd does not assume responsibility for possible loss and damage caused by business activities according to any element and contents of the overview. This document may only be

reproduced in whole or in part together with the name of Banca Intesa Beograd.

Nikkei 225 Japan 22,548.90 22,492.68 0.25% -0.95%

Dow Jones Stoxx 600 EU 394.22 391.84 0.61% 1.30%

FTSE UK 7,163.64 7,150.57 0.18% -6.82%

DAX Germany 12,747.96 12,633.60 0.91% -1.31%

NASDAQ US 8,162.99 8,089.54 0.91% 18.25%

S&P 500 US 3,006.72 2,986.20 0.69% 12.46%

Dow Jones Industrial US 26,827.64 26,770.20 0.21% 8.53%

Index Country/Region Value Previous value Change YTD

World stock exchanges

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000Dow Jones Industrial

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

S&P 500

5,8006,0006,2006,4006,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,6007,8008,0008,2008,4008,600

NASDAQ Composite

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410DJ Stoxx 600

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

Nikkei 225

\

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000DAX

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85Oil Brent (USD/bbl)

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600Gold

\

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 Vix Index

4