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Data Driven Done Right Dan McKinley @mcfunley mcfunley.com Lean Startup Conference San Francisco, CA December 10th, 2014
Transcript
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Data  Driven  Done  RightDan  McKinley @mcfunley mcfunley.com

Lean  Startup  Conference  -­‐  San  Francisco,  CA  December  10th,  2014

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IntroducHons

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20072003

20141998

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20072003

20141998

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Handmade  &  vintage  marketplace.  

$1.3  Billion  in  Gross  Sales  in  2013.  

600ish  Employees.

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Less  than  20  people  in  2007.

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photo:  Ian  Norman  on  Flickr.

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“What  do  we  build?”

photo:  Wilhelm  Joys  Andersen  on  Flickr.

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“We  should  be  data-­‐driven.”

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We  should  be  data  driven.  

This  is  data.  

∴  we  should  be  driven  by  this.

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Data-­‐Driven  PrioriHesThis  is  a  thing  that’s  possible.  !

I  fell  ass-­‐backwards  into  learning  a  thing  or  two  about  it.

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War  Stories

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In  the  Beginning

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Skateboard  ramp  demoli;on,  2007.

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Ideas  that  sound  awesome  are  awesome.

-­‐  Etsy  product  philosophy  in  the  early  days.

photo:  srslyguys  on  Flickr.

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photo:  JusDn  Brockie  on  Flickr.

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Products  in  the  Free-­‐Growth  Universe

(They  RULE)

Released  a  thing

Released  a  thing

Released  a  thing

Oh  man  that  thing  we  released,  I  tell  you  what

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Pimply,  Awkward  Company

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Product  Release  Plan1. Build  feature.  

2. Rent  warehouse  for  launch  party.  

3. Release  feature.  

4. Launch  party.  

5.Wait  20  months.  

6. Delete  feature  for  lack  of  usage.photo:  James  Willamor  on  flickr.

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2008

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2011

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A/B  tesHng:  a  soluHon?

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Product  selecHon:  sHll  “coolest  idea.”

photo:  nanpalmero  on  Flickr.

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photo:  nanpalmero  on  Flickr.

Product  selecHon:  sHll  “coolest  idea.”

But  the  measurement  had  changed!

photo:  masterpunk.etsy.com

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photo:  ketrin1407  on  Flickr.

“Only  Hope  stayed    under  the  rim  of  the  jar.”

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Something  that  Actually  Started  to  Work

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TimeIdea

Code

Release

2005

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Idea

Code

Release

Idea

Code

A/B  testRelease?

2005 2010

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“Oh,  crap”

Idea

Code

Release

Idea

Code

A/B  test

Release?

2005 2010

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Wasted  effort  (maybe).

THE  HELL  WITH  IT!

Idea

Code

Release

Idea

Code

A/B  test

Release?

2005 2010

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Idea

Code

Release

Idea

Code

A/B  test

Release?

IdeaValidatePrototype

A/B  Test

Refinement

A/B  test

Release

2005 2010 2012

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Use  data  here.Idea

Code

Release

Idea

Code

A/B  test

Release?

IdeaValidatePrototype

A/B  Test

Refinement

A/B  test

Release

2005 2010 2012

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Idea

Code

Release

Idea

Code

A/B  test

Release?

IdeaValidatePrototype

A/B  Test

Refinement

A/B  test

Release

2005 2010 2012

Possibly  quite  crappy.

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Made  less  crappy  here.

Idea

Code

Release

Idea

Code

A/B  test

Release?

IdeaValidatePrototype

A/B  Test

Refinement

A/B  test

Release

2005 2010 2012

Possibly  quite  crappy.

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Idea

Code

Release

Idea

Code

A/B  test

Release?

IdeaValidatePrototype

A/B  Test

Refinement

A/B  test

Release

2005 2010 2012

Maybe  give  up.

Maybe  give  up  (hopefully  not).

Maybe  give  up.

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Examples

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Here  are  two  real  ideas.Neither  should  sound  completely  nuts.

photo:  machineisorganic  on  Flickr.

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Idea  #1  Let’s  build  a  landing  page  for  local  furniture.

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Step  1:    Who  would  see  it?

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Lis$ng

Search

Shop

Home

Other

“A  significant  fracDon”

Traffic

Percen

t  (%)

Browse

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Lis$ng

Search

Shop

Home

Other

Traffic

Furniture

Percen

t  (%)

Browse

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Lis?ng

Search

Shop

Home

Other

Not  a  significant  fracDon.

TrafficItems  soldPe

rcen

t  (%)

Browse

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Step  2:    What  would  change  imply?

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visits  ×  conversion  rate  ×  order  value  ×  liH  ≈  ?  

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visits  ×  conversion  rate  ×  order  value  ×  liH  ≈  ?  Es#mated Modeled

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50K  ×  0.25%  ×  $400  ×  lig  ≈  ?  

(fake  numbers,  by  the  way)

$0

$125,000

$250,000

$375,000

$500,000

+0.5%?

+1%?

+2%?

One  Year

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50K  ×  0.25%  ×  $400  ×  lig  ≈  ?  

$0

$125,000

$250,000

$375,000

$500,000

+0.5%?

+1%?

+2%?

One  Year(fake  numbers,  by  the  way)

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50K  ×  0.25%  ×  $400  ×  lig  ≈  ?  

$0

$125,000

$250,000

$375,000

$500,000

+0.5%?

+1%?

+2%  ≈  $360,000

(fake  numbers,  by  the  way)

One  Year

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$0

$125,000

$250,000

$375,000

$500,000

$360,000

$13K  (our  cut)

50K  ×  0.25%  ×  $400  ×  lig  ≈  ?  

(fake  numbers,  by  the  way)

One  Year

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Verdict:    Let’s  do  something  else.

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Idea  #2  Let’s  email  people  that  give  up  in  the    

middle  of  purchases.

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users  ×  order  value  ×  resurrec?on  rate  ≈  ?  

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20K  ×  $40  ×  resurrecHon  rate  ≈  ?  

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

+1%?

+2%?

+5%?

One  Year(fake  numbers,  again)

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20K  ×  $40  ×  resurrecHon  rate  ≈  ?  

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

+1%?

+2%?

+5%?

One  Year(fake  numbers,  again)

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20K  ×  $40  ×  resurrecHon  rate  ≈  ?  

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$3,000,000!

One  Year(fake  numbers,  again)

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$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$3,000,000

20K  ×  $40  ×  resurrec?on  rate  ×  3.5%  ≈  ?  

$100K!  (our  cut)(fake  numbers,  again)

One  Year

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Verdict:    Let’s  build  it!

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Other

Abributed  Source  of  Etsy’s  Sales

My  email  (epic)

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Systemic  improvement  through  basic  arithmeHc!

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GeneralizaHons

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Who?  !

How  many?

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Close  is    good  enough.

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YMMV

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Startup Mature  Company

Moonshots Strategic  Projects Vebed  OpportuniDes

h/t  Marc  Hedlund

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Conclusions

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“What  do  we  build?”

photo:  Wilhelm  Joys  Andersen  on  Flickr.

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Many  product  ideas    sound  awesome.

photo:  mindonfire  on  Flickr.

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“Upon  what  meat  doth  this  our  Caesar  feed,  that  he  is  

grown  so  great?”

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“He  who  refuses  to  do    arithme;c  is  doomed    to  talk  nonsense.”

-­‐  John  McCarthy

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[email protected]  mcfunley.com  @mcfunley


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