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Data Driven Done RightDan McKinley @mcfunley mcfunley.com
Lean Startup Conference -‐ San Francisco, CA December 10th, 2014
IntroducHons
20072003
20141998
20072003
20141998
Handmade & vintage marketplace.
$1.3 Billion in Gross Sales in 2013.
600ish Employees.
Less than 20 people in 2007.
photo: Ian Norman on Flickr.
“What do we build?”
photo: Wilhelm Joys Andersen on Flickr.
“We should be data-‐driven.”
We should be data driven.
This is data.
∴ we should be driven by this.
Data-‐Driven PrioriHesThis is a thing that’s possible. !
I fell ass-‐backwards into learning a thing or two about it.
War Stories
In the Beginning
Skateboard ramp demoli;on, 2007.
Ideas that sound awesome are awesome.
-‐ Etsy product philosophy in the early days.
photo: srslyguys on Flickr.
photo: JusDn Brockie on Flickr.
Products in the Free-‐Growth Universe
(They RULE)
Released a thing
Released a thing
Released a thing
Oh man that thing we released, I tell you what
Pimply, Awkward Company
Product Release Plan1. Build feature.
2. Rent warehouse for launch party.
3. Release feature.
4. Launch party.
5.Wait 20 months.
6. Delete feature for lack of usage.photo: James Willamor on flickr.
2008
2011
A/B tesHng: a soluHon?
Product selecHon: sHll “coolest idea.”
photo: nanpalmero on Flickr.
photo: nanpalmero on Flickr.
Product selecHon: sHll “coolest idea.”
But the measurement had changed!
photo: masterpunk.etsy.com
photo: ketrin1407 on Flickr.
“Only Hope stayed under the rim of the jar.”
Something that Actually Started to Work
TimeIdea
Code
Release
2005
Idea
Code
Release
Idea
Code
A/B testRelease?
2005 2010
“Oh, crap”
Idea
Code
Release
Idea
Code
A/B test
Release?
2005 2010
Wasted effort (maybe).
THE HELL WITH IT!
Idea
Code
Release
Idea
Code
A/B test
Release?
2005 2010
Idea
Code
Release
Idea
Code
A/B test
Release?
IdeaValidatePrototype
A/B Test
Refinement
A/B test
Release
2005 2010 2012
Use data here.Idea
Code
Release
Idea
Code
A/B test
Release?
IdeaValidatePrototype
A/B Test
Refinement
A/B test
Release
2005 2010 2012
Idea
Code
Release
Idea
Code
A/B test
Release?
IdeaValidatePrototype
A/B Test
Refinement
A/B test
Release
2005 2010 2012
Possibly quite crappy.
Made less crappy here.
Idea
Code
Release
Idea
Code
A/B test
Release?
IdeaValidatePrototype
A/B Test
Refinement
A/B test
Release
2005 2010 2012
Possibly quite crappy.
Idea
Code
Release
Idea
Code
A/B test
Release?
IdeaValidatePrototype
A/B Test
Refinement
A/B test
Release
2005 2010 2012
Maybe give up.
Maybe give up (hopefully not).
Maybe give up.
Examples
Here are two real ideas.Neither should sound completely nuts.
photo: machineisorganic on Flickr.
Idea #1 Let’s build a landing page for local furniture.
Step 1: Who would see it?
Lis$ng
Search
Shop
Home
Other
“A significant fracDon”
Traffic
Percen
t (%)
Browse
Lis$ng
Search
Shop
Home
Other
Traffic
Furniture
Percen
t (%)
Browse
Lis?ng
Search
Shop
Home
Other
Not a significant fracDon.
TrafficItems soldPe
rcen
t (%)
Browse
Step 2: What would change imply?
visits × conversion rate × order value × liH ≈ ?
visits × conversion rate × order value × liH ≈ ? Es#mated Modeled
50K × 0.25% × $400 × lig ≈ ?
(fake numbers, by the way)
$0
$125,000
$250,000
$375,000
$500,000
+0.5%?
+1%?
+2%?
One Year
50K × 0.25% × $400 × lig ≈ ?
$0
$125,000
$250,000
$375,000
$500,000
+0.5%?
+1%?
+2%?
One Year(fake numbers, by the way)
50K × 0.25% × $400 × lig ≈ ?
$0
$125,000
$250,000
$375,000
$500,000
+0.5%?
+1%?
+2% ≈ $360,000
(fake numbers, by the way)
One Year
$0
$125,000
$250,000
$375,000
$500,000
$360,000
$13K (our cut)
50K × 0.25% × $400 × lig ≈ ?
(fake numbers, by the way)
One Year
Verdict: Let’s do something else.
Idea #2 Let’s email people that give up in the
middle of purchases.
users × order value × resurrec?on rate ≈ ?
20K × $40 × resurrecHon rate ≈ ?
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
+1%?
+2%?
+5%?
One Year(fake numbers, again)
20K × $40 × resurrecHon rate ≈ ?
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
+1%?
+2%?
+5%?
One Year(fake numbers, again)
20K × $40 × resurrecHon rate ≈ ?
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$3,000,000!
One Year(fake numbers, again)
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$3,000,000
20K × $40 × resurrec?on rate × 3.5% ≈ ?
$100K! (our cut)(fake numbers, again)
One Year
Verdict: Let’s build it!
Other
Abributed Source of Etsy’s Sales
My email (epic)
Systemic improvement through basic arithmeHc!
GeneralizaHons
Who? !
How many?
Close is good enough.
YMMV
Startup Mature Company
Moonshots Strategic Projects Vebed OpportuniDes
h/t Marc Hedlund
Conclusions
“What do we build?”
photo: Wilhelm Joys Andersen on Flickr.
Many product ideas sound awesome.
photo: mindonfire on Flickr.
“Upon what meat doth this our Caesar feed, that he is
grown so great?”
“He who refuses to do arithme;c is doomed to talk nonsense.”
-‐ John McCarthy
[email protected] mcfunley.com @mcfunley