of 12
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Renewables:Choices and opportunity costs
Prof. David Elliott
The Open University
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UK Energy Research Centre- MARKAL UK electricity scenarios for 2050
A rane of possible enery !i"es#
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CHP
RE
Nuclear
Natural as
Coal
Electricity Generation D60% CO 2 by 2050(no CCS)
Ele
ctricity
Production
(PJ/yr)
0
500
!000
!500
2000
2000 20!0 2020 20"0 20#0 2050
UK Electricity Mi$
Marsh%&E'( 2005
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Coal wit CCSCoal wit CCS
!G/CCS!G/CCS
0
500
!000
!500
2000
2000 20!0 2020 20"0 20#0 2050
Electricity
Production
(PJ/yr)
CHP
RE
Nuclear
N )ith CC'
Natural as
Coal )ith CC'
Coal
Electricity Generation D60% CO2by 2050
(no nuclear)
UK ElectricityMi$
Marsh%&E'(2005
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Potential % of overall UK electricity supply in 2050
Onshore wind 8-11%
Offshore wind 18-23%
Wave/Tidal 12-14%
Biomass 9-11%
PV solar 6-8%
TOTAL 53-67%
Based on overall likely level of supply of 400-500 TWh in 2050
Source: DTI/Carbon Trust Renewables Innovation Review 2004
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!ew E" Directi#e $ 20% o total ener&yro' renewable( by 2020
$ERR%s Renewable Enery Consultation suested that by &'&'
renewables !iht provide ()*of Pri!ary enery as follows :
+&*of electricity,(-* of heat,
('* of transport fuelThen the new U Renewable Enery /tratey 0&''12 said by &'&' renewables could supply around:
+'*of electricity,
(&* of heat
('* of transport fuel
Renewables 31%
3as &1*
4hat do others say5
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/ource: Redpoint, Trile!!a, Ca!bride University 0&''62 78!ple!entation of EU &'&' Renewable
Taret in the U Electricity /ector: Renewable /upport /che!es,% report for D$ERR
E"tended RO+9 Electricity /cenario +9*renewables
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7Oil Crunch% Report,fro! the 8ndustry Tas;
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Energy Watch7hih% scenario -,-)34 of0non hydro2 renewables lobally by &'+'
+'*share of final total enery de!and,
=&*of lobal electricity 0Enery 4atch&''62
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4hat%s stoppin it5
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The Renewables Obliation
0versus
