8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
1/12
Renewables:Choices and opportunity costs
Prof. David Elliott
The Open University
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
2/12
UK Energy Research Centre- MARKAL UK electricity scenarios for 2050
A rane of possible enery !i"es#
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
3/12
CHP
RE
Nuclear
Natural as
Coal
Electricity Generation D60% CO 2 by 2050(no CCS)
Ele
ctricity
Production
(PJ/yr)
0
500
!000
!500
2000
2000 20!0 2020 20"0 20#0 2050
UK Electricity Mi$
Marsh%&E'( 2005
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
4/12
Coal wit CCSCoal wit CCS
!G/CCS!G/CCS
0
500
!000
!500
2000
2000 20!0 2020 20"0 20#0 2050
Electricity
Production
(PJ/yr)
CHP
RE
Nuclear
N )ith CC'
Natural as
Coal )ith CC'
Coal
Electricity Generation D60% CO2by 2050
(no nuclear)
UK ElectricityMi$
Marsh%&E'(2005
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
5/12
Potential % of overall UK electricity supply in 2050
Onshore wind 8-11%
Offshore wind 18-23%
Wave/Tidal 12-14%
Biomass 9-11%
PV solar 6-8%
TOTAL 53-67%
Based on overall likely level of supply of 400-500 TWh in 2050
Source: DTI/Carbon Trust Renewables Innovation Review 2004
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
6/12
!ew E" Directi#e $ 20% o total ener&yro' renewable( by 2020
$ERR%s Renewable Enery Consultation suested that by &'&'
renewables !iht provide ()*of Pri!ary enery as follows :
+&*of electricity,(-* of heat,
('* of transport fuelThen the new U Renewable Enery /tratey 0&''12 said by &'&' renewables could supply around:
+'*of electricity,
(&* of heat
('* of transport fuel
Renewables 31%
3as &1*
4hat do others say5
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
7/12
/ource: Redpoint, Trile!!a, Ca!bride University 0&''62 78!ple!entation of EU &'&' Renewable
Taret in the U Electricity /ector: Renewable /upport /che!es,% report for D$ERR
E"tended RO+9 Electricity /cenario +9*renewables
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
8/12
7Oil Crunch% Report,fro! the 8ndustry Tas;
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
9/12
Energy Watch7hih% scenario -,-)34 of0non hydro2 renewables lobally by &'+'
+'*share of final total enery de!and,
=&*of lobal electricity 0Enery 4atch&''62
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
10/12
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
11/12
4hat%s stoppin it5
8/11/2019 Dave Elliot 1 to 12 of 24
12/12
The Renewables Obliation
0versus