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Dealing with uncertainty From agile to antifragile
| Date post: | 12-Apr-2017 |
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Business |
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Dealing with uncertaintyFrom agileto antifragile
What is uncertainty?
„Uncertainty is risk that isimmeasurable“
EconomistFrankKnight(1885– 1972)Risk,Uncertainty and Profit(1921)
Risk has anunknownoutcome,butwe know what theunderlying outcome distribution
looks like.
Risk are known unknowns,uncertainty are unknown
unknowns.
Your unknown unknowns canbeknown knowns for
others.
Eventsof the past are noguarantee for the future.
ABlackSwan is anevent that
- comes as asurprise,- has amajor effect,- and is often inappropriatelyrationalized afterthe fact withthe benefit of hindsight.
NassimNicholasTaleb(1960)TheBlackSwan(2007)
BlackSwans create disorder
- chaos- stress- shocks- volatility- opportunity
From fragileto antifragile
Fragile
Fragileis harmed fromvolatility.
Robust
Robustiswithstandingvolatility.
Antifragile
Antifragileis gaining fromvolatility.
NassimNicholasTaleb(1960)Antifragile:ThingsThat GainFrom Disorder (2012)
Fragileand antifragileexistbecause of assymetry.
Antifragile
Fragile
Sowhat does this mean for youand your business?
How can you adapt to changefaster as others?
Become Agile
How can you detect changefaster as others?
Question Data
Listentoyourpeople
Learning
How can you expose yourself topositive black swans?
Goto parties ...
Barbell Strategy
How can you avoid exposure tonegative black swans?
ViaNegativa
Optionality
Lindy Effect
How can you gain fromdisorder?
Skin inthe game
Lemonade
GreenLumber Fallacy
„Uncertainty is risk that isimmeasurable“
EconomistFrankKnight(1885– 1972)Risk,Uncertainty and Profit(1921)
