Decarbonisation indicators Technical Workshop on Intended Nationally Determined Mitigation Contributions September 18-19, 2014 Washington DC Fabio Sferra Markus Hagemann
Overview
• Aim of analysis • General Approach • Macro-level indicators • Sector-level indicators
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Aim
• Unpack the drivers behind the trends in emissions developments for the 30 largest emi8ers
• Provide more easily accessible indicators for prac;;oners, improving the understanding of relevant stakeholders at the na;onal and sectoral level
• Support – Countries in priori;zing and tailoring ac;vi;es – Assessment of na;onal efforts – Comparison / benchmarking between country efforts
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General approach
• Collect data on selected metrics for the highest priority countries – Macro-level indicators for decarbonisation drivers - economy wide
indicators describing decarbonisation trends for CAT countries – Sector-level indicators for decarbonisation drivers - sector wide
indicators describing decarbonisation trends for different sectors in CAT countries
• Decomposition of historic national emission trends (Kaya approach) • Evaluate how the current situation in the countries compares to best
practice in implementation • Evaluate how the indicators compare to 2°C global and national
goals
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MACROLEVEL INDICATORS Climate Action Tracker decarbonisation module
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Kaya Identity
• Useful to identify main drivers of GHG emissions – Historical perspective – Future perspective
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KAYA Identity: historical perspective
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𝐺𝐻𝐺𝑒𝑚𝑖=𝑃𝑜𝑝 𝐺𝐷𝑃/𝑃𝑜𝑝 𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 /𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝐺𝐻𝐺𝑒𝑚𝑖/𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦
KAYA Identity: Historical perspective
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0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
-‐40 -‐20 0 20 40 60 80
Energy In
tensity
Carbon Intensity
Carbon vs Energy Intensity
Historical -‐ 1971-‐2010
Linear (Historical -‐ 1971-‐2010)
1971
2010
KAYA Identity: Future perspective
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0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
-‐40 -‐20 0 20 40 60 80
Energy In
tensity
Carbon Intensity
Carbon vs Energy Intensity 2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Historical -‐ 1971-‐2010
Linear (Historical -‐ 1971-‐2010)
2C pathway
SECTORAL INDICATORS Climate Action Tracker decarbonisation module
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Sectoral indicators - Approach
• Identify relevant sectoral indicators – Allowing to evaluate whether a country is on the right track – Providing a transparent way of illustrating emission developments
• Develop best practice benchmarks for each indicator – Identify feasible benchmarks for different points in the future – Based on best practice development
• Develop 2 degree compatible benchmarks – Ensure that the benchmarks are in line with 2 degree pathway
• Compare to situation in each country – Current situation, current policy development and pledge
• à building on previous CAT country work on 'best practice policy package' in Mexico and Australia
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Possible sectoral indicators
Sector Possible indicators Descrip8on
Energy supply tCO2e/kWh annual investments in renewables
For en;re energy supply
Demand -‐ Industry tCO2e/tproduct Per industry types (e.g. Chemical industry, pulp and paper industry)
Buildings tCO2e/m² tCO2e/cap tCO2e/#Households
For hea;ng and cooling, appliances, cooking and hot water
Transport tCO2e/km tCO2e/pkm or tCO2e/tkm
For passenger and freight transport: rail, road mari;me or avia;on
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Displaying indicators
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Indi
cato
r e.g
. CO
2/kW
h
2010 2050
Pledge
Current policy
Required for 2°C
Global average
Country intensity
BAT
Example chemical industry
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Source: Saygin, D., Patel, M.K., Worrell, E., Tam, C., Gielen, D.J., 2011. Potential of best practice technology to improve energy efficiency in the global chemical and petrochemical sector. Energy 36, 5779–5790. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.019
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35G
J/ t
onne
of
outp
ut
Steam cracking* Ammonia** Mthanol***
Chlorine**** Soda ash*****
Example chemical industry cont.
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Source: Saygin, D., Patel, M.K., Worrell, E., Tam, C., Gielen, D.J., 2011. Potential of best practice technology to improve energy efficiency in the global chemical and petrochemical sector. Energy 36, 5779–5790. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2011.05.019
01000200030004000500060007000
Energy use chemical industry
Reported Energy Use (PJ/a)*
Best Practice Technology energy use (bottom-up approach)
Example building sector
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• Electricity consump;on can be decomposed by using the following equa;on (Cabeza et al. 2013):
Sum of overall appliances
Number of households
Number of appliances type ‘a’ per household
Example building sector cont.
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• Thermal energy demand: – Residen;al buildings energy
– Commericial buildings energy Number of households
Number of persons
Floor area (squared meters)
1) Decarbonization Dashboard - Mock-up for pilot phase Mexico
PRELIMINARY"
On track?
Drivers
Drivers
Drivers
Over-arching
Transport
Power
23%
17%
Metric
▪ Population ▪ GDP
Top-line carbon intensity & emissions
▪ Price of fuel (gasoline)
▪ Carbon intensity (road transport)
▪ Mean efficiency of ICE light duty vehicles sold ▪ Share of >2nd generation biofuels in fuel mix (% in
gasoline, diesel, etc.; across road, rail, air) ▪ Penetration rate of EVs (# vehicles in total fleet, by fleet
category)
Top-line carbon intensity & emissions
▪ Modal split in freight and passenger transport
▪ Fraction of RES in generation mix (% of gross generation) ▪ Fraction of coal, oil and natural gas in generation mix ▪ Fraction of nuclear in generation mix ▪ RES capacity planned/approved/under construction
▪ Split distributed vs. centralized generation
Top-line carbon intensity & emissions
▪ Estimated cost/MWh from new build capacity: Onshore wind / Offshore wind / Solar PV / Geothermal
Current value
118.4 mn 1033 USD bn 0.97 USD/L
423 gCO2e/km
6.45 L/100 km N/A
LDVs: 0 %; MDVs: 0% N/A
18 %
N/A 85 / 101 / 280 / 52 USD/MWh
Best-in-class Change y-o-y
+1.1% +3.8% +18%
-1.6%
-2.4% N/A
+5%
N/A
Nat’l goal 2o Latest update
▪ Carbon intensity of economy (emissions per unit GDP) 0.78 kgCO2e/USD -3.4% 2010 ▪ Emissions per capita 6.55 tCO2e/capita -0.5% 2010 ▪ Total emissions 748 MtCO2e +1.4% 2010
2013 2012 2013
▪ Emissions per capita 1.46 tCO2e/cap -1.2% 2010 ▪ Total emissions from transport sector 166.4 MtCO2e +0.7% 2010
2010
2013 N/A
2012
N/A
▪ Carbon intensity of power generation 480 kgCO2e//MWh -1.8% 2010 ▪ Total emissions from power sector 115.5 MtCO2e +1.3% 2010
2010
2013
N/A 2010
Sector share of"2010 emissions"4%
79 % 3 %
2010 2010
21 / 8.5 / 2 GW 2013 ▪ Nuclear capacity planned/approved/under construction 2.5 / 0 / 0 GW
N/A N/A N/A
N/A N/A
N/A N/A
Additional metrics for other sectors, selection criteria for metrics, and scope of pilot phase project are in the Annex
BACKUP SLIDES Climate Action Tracker Decarbonisation Module
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Carbon Transparency Index
Pledges OutcomePolicies
GHG
OutcomeMetrics
DriverMetrics
Excel tool by McKinsey
Dashboard mock-up (2/3) Sector share of"2010 emissions"4%
Agricul-ture
Oil&Gas
Industry
Forestry
14%
15%
13%
9%
Drivers
Drivers
Drivers
Drivers
Top-line carbon intensity & emissions
Top-line carbon intensity & emissions
Top-line carbon intensity & emissions
Top-line carbon intensity & emissions
▪ Emissions per Ha agricultural production 1.69 tCO2e/Ha +0.7% 2010 ▪ Total emissions from agriculture (incl. energy) 100 MtCO2e 2010
▪ Fraction of managed manure facilities with biodigester N/A N/A N/A ▪ Efficiency of nutrient use (crop yield/N fertilizer) 542.6 kg/kg +0.3% 2010
▪ Emissions per BOE extracted, distributed and processed
41 kgCO2e/boe N/A 2010 ▪ Total emissions from O&G sector 124 MtCO2e 2010
▪ % of gas produced flared 2% -1.8 p.p 2012 ▪ Methane leakage rates in gas processing & distribution
(for mid- and downstream, same indicators as industry) N/A N/A N/A
▪ Share of conventional/unconventional production N/A N/A N/A
▪ Emissions per unit GDP 0.52 kgCO2e/USD -0.5% 2010 ▪ Total emissions from industry sector 99 MtCO2e +2.8% 2010
▪ % of natural gas/biogas/fuel oil for heat generation N/A N/A N/A ▪ % of heat generated in co-generation 5.1% N/A 2013 ▪ Emission standards N/A N/A N/A ▪ Subsidies for EE investments N/A N/A N/A
▪ Net emissions from forestry sector (estimate) 75 MtCO2e 0.0% 2010 ▪ Mean carbon content per Ha 226 tC/Ha N/A 2008
▪ Protected area (all IUCN categories) 25.6 Mn Ha +0.1% 2012 ▪ Net Ha of deforested land, degraded forest & peatland 0.1 Mn Ha N/A 2010 ▪ Total land forest & peat land area 33% of land area 0.0% 2012
On track?
Metric Current value Best-in-class Change y-o-y Nat’l goal 2o
Latest update
+0.7%
-1 %
PRELIMINARY"
On track?
Metric Current value Best-in-class Change y-o-y Nat’l goal 2o
Latest update
Dashboard mock-up (3/3) Sector share of 2010 emissions
4%
Waste
Buildings
SLCFs
5%
3%
Drivers
Drivers
Drivers
Top-line carbon intensity & emissions
Top-line carbon intensity & emissions
Top-line carbon intensity & emissions
▪ Amount of solid waste generated per capita 0.36 tCO2e/cap +1.6% 2012
▪ Total emissions from waste sector (solid and wastewater)
44.1 MtCO2e +4.9% 2010
▪ % of collected waste landfilled ▪ % of collected waste recycled
65% 5%
+1.3 p.p. 2012 2012
▪ Methane recovered from landfills N/A N/A N/A ▪ % of sewage sludge biologically treated 43.4% +2.1 p.p. 2012
▪ Total emissions from buildings sector 21.5 MtCO2e 2010
▪ Retrofit rates for existing buildings N/A N/A N/A ▪ Efficiency standards of new buildings N/A N/A N/A ▪ % of heating needs provided by oil and coal ▪ % of heating needs provided by electricity & solar
43% +0.2% 2012
▪ Efficiency standards of new electric appliances N/A N/A N/A ▪ Subsidies for EE retrofits & solar heating Yes N/A N/A
▪ Emissions of methane, NOx, black carbon N/A N/A N/A
2.94% ▪ Share of diesel vehicles +0.3 p.p. 2012 27.6% ▪ Share of wood used in residential heating/cooking -0.2% 2012
▪ Share of waste incinerated N/A N/A N/A ▪ Share of F-gas vs non-F-gas alternatives by sector N/A N/A N/A
▪ Emission intensity of waste sector 386 kgCO2e/cap +2.8% 2010
▪ Emissions per square meter building area 0.79 kgCO2e/m2 N/A 2010
PRELIMINARY
+0.2 p.p.
+2.2%
30% 2012 +0.1%