Decision Making

Our Style

Our Groups

Jim Marteney

Top 10 Ways to Make a Bad Decision

Make a decision based on money and time you've already spent.

Play up information that confirms your current point of view.

Ignore information that doesn't confirm your current point of view.

Pay too much attention to the first thing you hear, or the first data you receive.

Frame a decision only on the benefits OR risks, but not both.

Believe that your "gut" is the smartest person in the room. 

Wear rose-colored glasses when you are estimating the results.

Wear doom-colored glasses when you are estimating the results.

Don't use data at all.

Use nothing but data.

Top 10 Ways to Make a Bad Decision

Everyone Has Their Own Style

Communication

That leads to a style of

Decision Making

Workstyle Communication

Eagle

Roadrunner

Owl

Dove

Patient Fast

Task

People

Systematic

Better Safe Than Sorry

Notice my efficiency

Direct

Notice My Accomplishments

I want it done now

Considerate

Is Everyone Comfortable?

People and feelings important

Spirited

Don’t Confuse Me With Facts

Ain’t we got fun

Decision Making Style

Bull

Eagle

Bloodhound

Bee

Observing Knowing

Unemotional

Emotional

Analytical Direct

Amiable Expressive

We need more data to be sure.

Strike while the iron is hot.

This idea sounds like fun.

Will decision make us comfortable?

Develop Alternatives

Two important steps

Ideation

Judgment

Brainstorming

Goal is Quantity

No Criticism

Build on Ideas

Develop Alternatives

“If you only have a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.”

Abraham Maslow

Develop Alternatives

Traditional “hammer” what punishment would get them to not litter?

Problem: How Do You get people in a park to throw away their trash?

Reframe problem: How do you make throwing trash away fun?

Develop Alternatives

The World’s Deepest Trashcan

Develop Alternatives

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcrhp-IWK2w

Analyze Alternatives

Appraise Strengths

Appraise Weaknesses

Analyze Alternatives

Select Alternative

Continuum of Certainty

0% 100%

ReasonableDoubt

51%

Preponderanceof Evidence

Inference Test

The number one skill of the human mind

Recognizing Patterns

Every group has a unique personality

Syntality

Leading a Supportive Group

Leading a Supportive Group

Group strength from effective merging of participants individual energy

Synergy

Two Challenges Managing Group Tension

Groupthink

Abilene Paradox

Leading a Supportive Group

Irving Janis

Mismanagement of Disagreement

Groupthink

1972

Groupthink occurs when a homogenous highly cohesive group is so concerned with maintaining unanimity that they fail to evaluate all their alternatives and options.

Groupthink

Groupthink

Irving Janis

“The psychological drive for consensus

at any cost that suppresses dissent

and appraisal of alternatives in

cohesive decision-making groups”

Groupthink

Pearl Harbor

Challenger

Bay of Pigs

Groupthink

Bay of Pigs

RFK was quoted as approaching Schlesinger and saying: “You may be right or wrong, but the President has made up his mind. Don’t push it any further. Now is the time to help him all we can.”

Groupthink

Bay of Pigs

Schlesinger stopped his usual role as devil’s advocate and critic and began to sanction his own challenges.

Groupthink

Groupthink

Challenger Shuttle

Groupthink

Iraq Decision

“While the intention of this book is not to evaluate the Decision to Invade Iraq, the cumulative evidence to date strongly suggests that it is a classic case of groupthink.”

Author: Ph.D, Deborah L. MacKenzie

Groupthink

According to a scathing report released by the Senate Intelligence Committee, the United States went to war with Iraq on the basis of flawed intelligence assessments.

Groupthink

The CIA analysts suffered a case of Groupthink that rendered them incapable of consideringthat Iraq might have dismantled its weapons programs. Senate Intelligence Committee July 10

2004

Groupthink

Groupthink

“I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder”

Edward J. Smith, Captain of the Titanic

Groupthink

“I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder”

Edward J. Smith, Captain of the Titanic

Groupthink

Members avoid being too harsh in their judgments of their leader’s or their colleagues’ ideas.

Groupthink

They adopt a soft line of criticism, even in their own thinking.

Groupthink

At their meetings, all the members are amiable and seek complete concurrence on every important issue, with no bickering or conflict to spoil the cozy, “we-feeling” atmosphere.

----Psychology Today

Groupthink

Symptoms

Pressure for Conformity

Self-Censorship

Illusion of Unanimity

Mindguards

Groupthink

Negative Outcomes

Examining few alternatives

Not being critical of each other's ideas

Not examining early alternatives

Not seeking expert opinion Being highly selective in gathering

information Not having contingency plans

Refrain from stating preference

Assign a Devil’s Advocate

Seek expert input

Preventing

Call a “Second Chance Meeting”

Split into Sub-groups

Encourage member’s objections

Groupthink

Groupthink

The Key: Someone with the courage to disagree.

Abilene Paradox

Occurs when a group takes action contrary to the desires of the

members

The Mismanagement of Agreement

and thus, defeats the purpose of the group.

Abilene ParadoxThe Mismanagement of Agreement

Abilene Paradox

“Taking the trip to Abilene”

Jerry Harvey

Group Climate

Supportive

Defensive

Two Basic Group Climates

Build a Consensus

Build a Consensus

at least partially agree

are committed to the decision

Where all Group Members

Build a Consensus

Build a Consensus

Avoid Arguing for Just your Opinion

Avoid Win/Lose Situations

Seek Differences of Opinion

Use Group Pronouns

Orient Towards Group Goal

Build a Consensus

Implement Alternative

There will always be resistance

Change has considerable impact on the human mind.

To the fearful, it is threatening because it means things may get worse.

To the hopeful, it is encouraging because things may get better.

To the confident, it is inspiring because the challenge exists to make things better.

Implement Alternative

Obviously then, one's character and frame of mind determine how one relates to change.

Implement Alternative

“When you assemble a number of (people) to have advantage of their joint wisdom, you assemble with those (people), all their

Prejudices, their passions, their errors of opinion, their local interest, and their selfish views.

From such an assembly can a perfect production be expected?” Ben Franklin Constitutional Convention September 15, 1787