2. Workbook DecisionMaking

8/11/2019 2. Workbook DecisionMaking

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Improving Managerial

Skills

for

Leadership

Decision Making – Self Education and Learning Forum.



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Decision Making

“Setting a goal is not the main thing. It is deciding how you will go aboutachie ing it and staying with that !lan."

#om Landry






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,.3.1 Step 1: !enti"# the $ption-------------------------------------------------2,.3.2 Steps 2 & 3: C%eate a M )a*(e an! opu(ate it---------------------2,.3.3 Step 4 & ,: Sco%e the Concepts & Ca(cu(ate )ota(s-----------------2/

$ COST .ENE'IT ANAL(SIS#################################################%/

6.1 When to se?------------------------------------------------------------------------2&6.2 'o( to se?--------------------------------------------------------------------------2&6.3 #$am%*e-------------------------------------------------------------------------------3

.3.1 Step 1: !enti"# the %o*(e -----------------------------------------------3

.3.2 Step 2: !enti"# Costs---------------------------------------------------------3

.3.3 Step 3: !enti"# ene5ts-----------------------------------------------------31

.3.4 Step 4: Ca(cu(ate a#*ack )i e------------------------------------------316.4 /ariations------------------------------------------------------------------------------32

0 DECISION T&EES############################################################))

0.1 When to se?------------------------------------------------------------------------330.2 'o( to se?--------------------------------------------------------------------------330.3 #$am%*e-------------------------------------------------------------------------------34

/.3.1 Step 1: !enti"# the %o*(e -----------------------------------------------34/.3.2 Step 2: C%eate a )%ee o" Choices-----------------------------------------34/.3.3 Step 3: !enti"# the Costs6 ene5ts an! %o*a*i(ities--------------3,/.3.4 Step 4: a%se the )%ee--------------------------------------------------------3/

0.4 /ariations------------------------------------------------------------------------------4

DECISION MA IN! *&INCI*LES#########################################+1

8.1 ccam’s a or-----------------------------------------------------------------------418.2 "areto "rinci%*e----------------------------------------------------------------------438.3 "arkinson’s a(---------------------------------------------------------------------438.4 m%ortance ersus rgenc+-----------------------------------------------------448.5 7ame heor+-------------------------------------------------------------------------458.6 he rage,+ o! the Commons--------------------------------------------------46

/ NOMINAL !&O2* TECHNI32E###########################################+

&.1 hinking in 7rou%s-----------------------------------------------------------------48&.2 omina* 7rou% echni9ue--------------------------------------------------------4&&.3 When to se?------------------------------------------------------------------------4&&.4 'o( to se?--------------------------------------------------------------------------4&

1, DEL*HI METHOD##########################################################-11 .1 'istor+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------511 .2 When to se?----------------------------------------------------------------------511 .3 'o( to se?------------------------------------------------------------------------511 .4 ), antages-------------------------------------------------------------------------52

11 STE*LADDE& TECHNI32E##############################################-+

11.1 When to se?----------------------------------------------------------------------5411.2 'o( to se?------------------------------------------------------------------------5411.3 Di:erences (ith the De*%hi Metho,----------------------------------------55

&E'E&ENCES#####################################################################-$




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$ourse %b&ecti e'(y the end of this course you will be able to'

Make better indi idual decisions using a ariety of tools and increase theefficiency of your grou! decisions

)our %b&ecti es'List your three main objectives below. What do you want to learn in this course?What do you want to take away with you? What do you want to become better at?What do you need?

*.

+.

,.




$ha!ter ,' -aired $om!arison nalysis 3.1 When to Use? | 6

1 What is Decision Making?“Each indecision brings its own delays and days are lost lamenting o er lost

days... /hat you can do or think you can do0 begin it. For boldness has magic0 !ower0 and genius in it."

1oethe

%b&ecti e'(y the end of this session you will be able to'

2se good decision making !rocesses to get the best out of your decisions

In the course of our lives, we need to continuously make decisions. Some of thesedecisions are simple what to buy in a supermarket, what to wear to work, what tosay to your collea!ue, which !ad!et to buy and so on. Some decisions are much

more profound with lon! lastin! results. "#amples are business decisions such asmovin! offices, e#pandin! to new markets, producin! new products, partnerin!with new companies, pricin! products and so on. $he more you have at stake, themore you need to pay attention to decision makin! and use appropriate techni%uesto ma#imi&e your chances of makin! the ri!ht decisions.

In this course, you will be introduced to decision makin! principles and will !othrou!h a series of tools that can help you to decide between many options.

What is Decision?

$he root of the decision comes from a Latin word which means ‘cut away’ . $o

make a decision, you want to cut away throu!h the search space, remove clutterand find a way to a solution that satisfies your criteria.









Do You Have to Make the Decision?

/ou may need to consider the followin!• Is it the ri!ht time?• Is it necessary?• 1as a similar decision been made by others who were in your position in the

past that you can simply take advanta!e of?

How to Make the Decision?

/ou need to consider how decision makin! process is !oin! to work. /ou have thefollowin! options

• +ake a decision on your own• In !roups. In this case you need to consider

o Who should attend?o Where should we meet?o When should we meet?o 1ow much time should be allocated for the meetin!s?

What Can You Learn from Past Ex eriences?

' critical task is to look into past and learn from similar e#periences made by youor others before makin! the decision. /ou need to consider

• What were the issues in the past?• Why certain decisions were made?•

What was the outcome?• 1ow does the past situation relate to the current situation?• 1ow ur!ent is it?

How Much !na"#sis $o You %ee$?

When makin! decisions, some people like to e#amine every little detail. elievin!that it is important to know everythin! before makin! decisions, they !et obsessedby collectin! data and analysin! to death2 Is it always better to do more analysis?

's you may suspect, more analysis and data collection leads to better decisionmakin!, but only up to a point. 'fter a certain level, the more you know the lesslikely you are to make a valid or optimal decision.$he problem with over analysin! is that you can easily evaluate a small number of variables a!ainst each other. y collectin! more and more data and analysin! inmore detail you will simply end up with a lot more variables that you need to seta!ainst each other. 's you will see later in the course, you can resort to toolswhich make this process easier. 1owever, beyond a certain point the sheer numberof variables will increase the comple#ity of your decision makin! si!nificantly andyou may no lon!er understand or comprehend your own analysis. $he decisionmakin! process becomes random. +ore analysis at this point only makes it moredifficult to decide. 1ence, always scale your analysis based on the si&e of the

problem so that your decision makin! process is not affected by 3 paralysis of analysis’.





' !ood measure is the potential implications of the decision. -hoosin! which clothto buy should take a lot less time proportionally to buyin! a house.

Durin! this course, you will be introduced to a series of tools and techni%ues thatwill help you to systematically make decisions. $hese tools can be broadly dividedinto three areas

• What actions can you take and how to choose the best one?• Is the action you are about to take !oin! to improve the situation?• 1ow to make optimal decisions as a !roup?

Let)s start with e#aminin! actions based on the available options and see whattools can be used to facilitate this.





& 'ra$e()* !na"#sis“In any moment of decision the best thing you can do is the right thing0 the

ne6t best thing is the wrong thing0 and the worst thing you can do is nothing."

#heodore 3oose elt


$hoose the best a ailable o!tion based on a number of criteria using a trade5off analysis

1avin! many variables and options to choose from means that you can no lon!erdecide just by comparin! the options in your head. $he comple#ity of the taskre%uires a more systematic approach. ' common techni%ue often employed in

many business environments such as sales, en!ineerin!, bankin!, marketin! andothers is Trade-off Analysis . $his techni%ue is also known as Grid Analysis , Decisionatri! Analysis , "u#h atri! Analysis and ulti-Attri$ute Utility Theory 4+'($5.

Whatever the name or variation, you are effectively settin! up a table of parameters versus options and score the options based on these parameters to findthe best course of action. $he followin! !uideline shows how this works inpractice.

When to +se

$his method is particularly useful when you have a number of alternative but

similar options to choose from. "very option seems to have its own advanta!es anddisadvanta!es and you may find it difficult to make an intuitive decision.

How to +se

'pplyin! a trade0off analysis is %uite easy. /ou need to create a table and carry outa number of calculations to derive a score for each potential option. /ou can thenchoose the option with the hi!hest score as your desired choice. 1ere is how itworks

• Ste! *' Identify the o!tions.o List a number of options you want to consider. /ou want to eventually

choose one of these as your desired solution.







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's you can see, considerin! the features and costs for each option, it is now moreideal to !o for 1$- $ouch 1D instead. /ou !et more for the features that you careabout for less money.

What you saw in this analysis is a simple way to calculate scores as you are simplyusin! a linear function. +ore sophisticated analysis can be carried out usin! morecomple# formula. otice that the wei!hts have a si!nificant effect on theoutcome. ecause trade0off analysis is dependent on wei!hts and the choice of formula which are both subjective, the result of this analysis should only be takenas a !uideline. $rade0off analysis helps you to %uickly see how thin!s compare.

y !oin! throu!h this analysis, you end up identifyin! a number of critical criteriathat can be used to compare the options with each other. $his is e#tremely usefulsince it allows you to understand your options better. 1owever, it is always best toput the result of this analysis ne#t to the result of other kinds of analysis and alsocompare it with your own jud!ement to make an optimal decision.

;ariations• /ou can use any formula to combine the wei!hts with the scores to calculate

a final score.• /ou can use any ran!e for scorin! the options for each criterion. /ou can

even use ne!ative numbers.• @ather than allocatin! a number between 9 and 8 for wei!hts, a point

system can be used. Ima!ine you have 977 points which can be distributedbetween a number of criteria. $his way, one criterion mi!ht receive a lar!enumber at the e#pense of another. $he total of these wei!hts should alwaysadd up to 977. $his method helps you to %uestion your interest in eachcriterion as you allocate points to them.





/ Paire$ Com arison !na"#sis

“3emember0 a real decision is measured by the fact that you; e taken new action. If there;s no action0 you ha en;t truly decided."

#ony 3obbins


2se a series of systematic com!arisons to identify the most ideal decision

When makin! decisions, sometimes you need to compare solutions or ideas thatare not related very much. In some cases, you may not be able to identifymeanin!ful set of criteria that can be used to compare all options a!ainst eachother. *or e#ample, you may need to decide whether to allocate departmentresources to buy a new colour laser printer, hire a new receptionist to ease off your workload or to spend it on machinery to e#tend your production capacity by97A. 's the number of choices !oes up, it becomes more difficult to intuitivelydecide. $o solve this problem you can use the techni%ue described in this sessionknown as "aired +o%parison Analysis or "aired +hoice Analysis.

When to +se?

(se "aired +o%parison to understand the value of each option relative to others.

It is ideal for situations where you can)t easily compare the options thou!h you canalways use this method when the options are close to each other. $his method canbe used in conjunction with trade0off analysis to !ive a better idea of thesituation.

$his method is also useful to !ive you an idea of where you need to focus most of your attention.

How to +se?

(sin! this techni%ue is rather simple. /ou want to compare each option withanother until all options are paired a!ainst one another. *or each pair, decidewhich option you prefer and how much. *inally, score the results to see whichoption is the most ideal.





• Ste! *' Identify the o!tions. o List the options you want to consider.

• Ste! +' Make rows and columns.o +ake a table with rows and columns of the list of your options.

• Ste! ,' $om!are the !airs. o *or each pair, compare the two options and write which option you

prefer in the table and score this preference. When there is nopreference use score 7 while when there is more preference use ahi!her number to indicate it. /ou can set a limit 4between 7 and 85 orno limit at all.

• Ste! 7' $om!ile the total scores. o >nce all scores are recorded, !o throu!h the table and compile a

total score for each option. $he option with the hi!hest score is the

most ideal course of action.Exam "e

-onsider the followin! e#ample it is the end of the year and you can spendB97,777 in the current ta# year to avoid payin! more ta#es ne#t year. 's the headof the en!ineerin! department, you want to spend the money wisely.

,te 1- .$entif# the ) tions

/ou have come up with the followin! options• uy a new ;D printer to allow rapid prototypin!. /our en!ineers will be able

to produce prototypes much %uicker which frees their time to do otherimportant tasks.

• @efurbish the lab with new desks, shelves, computer e%uipment, plants andprinters.

• -onvert a store room to a meetin! room and e%uip it with the latest videoconferencin! tools to facilitate communication with your clients andsuppliers.

• 'llocate the fund to send several of your lab personnel to conferences andtrainin! courses to encoura!e cross fertilisation of ideas, increase theirproductivity and make them feel that you care about them.

,te & 0 /- Make a 'a3"e an$ Com are the Pairs

:air the options a!ainst each other. 1alf the table is !reyed out since you don)twant to compare pairs twice or with themselves. Letters ' to D are used asdesi!nators for each option.





,D -rinter

< =

3efurbish Lab

<(=

>ideo$onferencing

<$=

#raining ?$onferences

<D=

,D -rinter

< =

3efurbish Lab<(= ', ;

>ideo$onferencing

<$=-, = , 9

#raining ?$onferences

<D=', 9 D, = D, C

,te - Ca"cu"ate the 'ota" ,cores

ow !o throu!h the table and add up all the points for each option.

' ; E 9 =

9

- =

D C E = F

/ou can then convert these to percenta!es of the total. $he sorted result is

D =7A

- CF.FA

' CF.FA

F.FA

It seems that you will be better off to !o with option D, sendin! your staff totrainin! and conferences. >ption , refurbishin! the office, doesn)t seem to bevaluable as much.

;ariations• /ou can perform this techni%ue individually or in !roups.• Dependin! on the problem under consideration and available options, you

can consider all choices based on their proportional votes. *or e#ample, inthe above scenario you can distribute the money accordin! to the calculatedpercenta!es.

• $o calculate the scores for each pair, introduce a number of criteria and usethem to score the difference.





• /ou can have an open discussion in a !roup for each paired comparison anddecide on each score collectively.

• /ou can introduce probabilistic models to further %uantify your decisionmakin! process. :lease refer to pairwise co%parison in the literature forfurther details.





2orce 2ie"$ !na"#sis


Make a decision using @uantifiable !ros and cons to e aluate the im!act of your decision

So far you have seen how to choose from a set of actions. 1owever, sometimes youmay need to know the implications of !oin! with a particular option and want tosystematically e#amine what happens if you !o with that option. ' traditionaltechni%ue is wei!hted pros and cons where you simply identify what is !ood about!oin! ahead with the option 4pros5 and what is bad about it 4cons5. In this session,you will be introduced to a useful variation of this method known as ,orce ,ield

Analysis .

When to +se?

(se this techni%ue to find out what affects the outcome of this option or choice./ou !et to analyse what works for or a!ainst it.

How to +se?

(se the followin! steps to carry out a *orce *ield 'nalysis.• Ste! *' Identify the !roblem.

o Identify the problems or options under consideration. (se thefollowin! dia!ram and write this in the bo# at the appropriatelocation.

• Ste! +' Identify the forces. o List all the forces that affect this option. Write the positive forces as

arrows towards the bo# and ne!ative forces as arrows pointin! out of the bo#.

• Ste! ,' Score the forces. o 6ive a score to each identified force between 9 and 8 where 9 is

weak and 8 is stron!.

Decision Making – Self Education and Learning Forum.-roblem A %!tion




Exam "e

Suppose you are considerin! chan!in! the location of your offices from the centreof the town to a lar!er buildin! in a brand new business park.

,te 1 0 &- .$entif# the Pro3"em an$ the 2orces

(sin! the template, your dia!ram may look like the followin!.


"ositi e ,orces for +han#e

'e#ati e ,orces for +han#e




,te /- ,core the 2orces

*or each force, assi!n a score of importance between 9 4weak5 and 8 4stron!5. /our

dia!ram may look like this. e#t calculate the totals for each set of forces.


Lar!er office space

o city centre traffic

-an impress visitors with ournew buildin!

-an)t eat out at lunch

Mo ing offices to the new business !ark

eed to commute to citycentre for customermeetin!s

Inability to do errands inthe city centre at lunchbreak



:ossible new recruitmentsand e#pansion

-ity centre buildin! pricecan rise more in the futurethan a buildin! in a businesspark. 'cts as investment.

-ost of movin!




!na"#sis

's you can see form the analysis it seems that not movin! offices is a better

option. @emember, as with many decision makin! tools, it is the process that isbeneficial and not necessarily just the outcome. $his techni%ue helps you to


Lar!er office space

o city centre traffic

-an impress visitors with ournew buildin!

-an)t eat out at lunch

Mo ing offices to the new business !ark

eed to commute to citycentre for customermeetin!s

Inability to do errands inthe city centre at lunchbreak



:ossible new recruitmentsand e#pansion

-ity centre buildin! pricecan rise more in the futurethan a buildin! in a businesspark. 'cts as investment.

-ost of movin!

;

C

;

9

=

=

C

;

=

#otal -ositi e' *+ #otal 4egati e' *73esult B +






5 PM. !na"#sis


Systematically analyse the im!lications of taking an action so you can decidewhether to go ahead with it or not

$he techni%ue described in this session helps you to decide if a course of action isworth takin!. It can be used in conjunction with methods that help you to choosethis action amon! other options. *or e#ample, you may use trade0off analysis toidentify the best course of action from a number of options. /ou can analyse thisoption further to see if it is actually worth takin!. It is possible that you mi!ht bebetter off not to take the action at all2 $his is somethin! that the trade0off

analysis mi!ht not show you and it is useful to use a techni%ue that can help youon this. $he useful techni%ue for this purpose is known as "lus* inus* nterestin#or " which is %uite easy to apply.

When to +se?

(se this techni%ue to understand the implications of your actions better. It iseffectively an improved variation of wei#hted pros and cons .

How to +se?

$o apply this techni%ue, identify the action under consideration and !o throu!h thefollowin! steps

• Ste! *' Identify the o!tion.o -hoose the option you want to analyse.

• Ste! +' $reate a -MI table.o -reate a table with three columns, "lus , inus and %plications .

• Ste! ,' -o!ulate the -MI table. o (nder "lus state everythin! that is positive about the options. (nder

'e#ati e state everythin! that is ne!ative about it and under%plications record the conse%uences of takin! that action whether it

is positive, ne!ative or neutral.• Ste! 7' Score the conce!ts.







,te 0 5- ,core the Conce ts 0 Ca"cu"ate 'ota"s

e#t, score each case based on how stron! you feel about it from 7 to 8.

-lus Minus Im!lications

"#panded market will leadto e#panded market share

C+

eed si!nificant initialinvestment to file foroverseas patents

57

Will have potentially moresales

C,

>ur e#pansion preventscompetitors from copyin!our desi!n

C*

eed to invest in e#tensivemarket research in variouscountries

5+

Will be reco!nised as aninternational player, hencewill be easier to attract newinvestors

C,

International sales mayfurther boost our brandand increase our localsales

C,

eed to setup new supplychains in unfamiliar markets

5*

Will need to recruit morestaff as this e#pansion willhave e#tensive overhead onmana!ement

5+

If international sales are notas e#pected, we may end upwith cash flow problems andlose both international andlocal markets

5+

>nce new supply chains arecreated, it will be easier tointroduce new products

C+

C9 5 C9

$he final score is F H E F ;

$he result su!!ests that !oin! ahead with the e#pansion is the preferred option.

'!ain, as with other decision makin! techni%ues, the process itself will help you tounderstand your problem better and make intuitive decisions in conjunction withthe calculated score.


$otal




-lus Minus Im!lications

*inal Score JJJJJJJJJJ


*&ACTICE4 *MI S5enario/ou recently attended an e#hibition within your industry. ' -"> of anothercompany showed !reat interest in your work. 'fter an hour of discussion with himover lunch, which was more like an informal interview, he decided to offer you a

job and promised to !ive you 87A more salary than you currently receive. $he jobwill re%uire you to move to the other side of the country. /ou are now faced withthe decision to take the offer or refuse it. /ou have a few days to think about thisbefore replyin!.

:erform a :+I analysis considerin! your current lifestyle and the conse%uences ofacceptin! this offer so you can decide whether to !o for it or not.

$otal




6 Cost <ene=t !na"#sis“Decide what you want0 decide what you are willing to e6change for it.

Establish your !riorities and go to work."

. L. unt


Make decisions based on !roblem analysis using a common currency and calculate the net benefits

Sometimes instead of makin! %ualitative decisions, you may need to resort to/uantitati e decision makin!. $his facilitates the process since you can converteverythin! to numbers and then carry out a numerical analysis. $his makes the

whole process much easier to handle. 'n a!e old techni%ue on %uantitativedecision makin! is known as +ost-0enefit Analysis +0A2 which is descri$ed in thissession. - ' in principle is very simple. "ffectively, you calculate the cost of everythin! and subtract it from the benefit of your actions. $he final resultsu!!ests if what you are about to do will cost you or will benefit you financially.

When to +se?

- ' is common in financial domains thou!h you can easily use it for any other fieldas lon! as you can convert everythin! to a common unit of currency. *or e#ample,you can apply cost benefit analysis to ti%e since some tasks can take a lot of time

4cost5 and other tasks can increase your productivity and save you time 4benefit5.*or the remainder of this session we will consider money as the common currencyas it is easier to follow and understand.

How to +se?

*irst, notice that costs and benefits are sli!htly different in respect with time.-osts are usually one0off or on!oin! such as bills. 1owever, benefits are oftenreceived over a period of time. ecause of this, in - ' you also need to considertime as a primary dimension alon! with currency.

'nother issue with - ' is that you need to convert everythin! to money. $his maynot always be easy especially when you are dealin! with intan!ible assets. *ore#ample, what is the benefit of reducin! traffic for the masses? What is the





financial benefit of reduction of -> C emissions if you cycle to work instead of drivin! your car? 's a result, you may need to rely on subjective analysis while!oin! throu!h - ' and need to clarify e#actly what assumptions to make in orderto know how much you can rely on the final results.

- ' has many varieties and can become %uite comple#. ' simplified e#ample thatshows the core concept is e#plained in this session. *or further details pleaseconsult the references.

$o carry out cost0benefit analysis follow these steps• Ste! *' Identify the -roblem.• Ste! +' Identify costs.

o Identify one0off costso Identify costs over timeo -alculate the total of these costs

• Ste! ,' Identify benefits.o Identify the benefits over timeo -alculate the total of these costs over a common unit of time

• Ste! 7' $alculate !ayback time.

Exam "e

Let)s !o throu!h an e#ample.

,te 1- .$entif# the Pro3"em

/ou are in char!e of introducin! a new time lo!!in! system for your staff.

"mployees will be able to use the software to lo! the time they spend on variousprojects or other duties which can be used for project mana!ement, resourcin!and monitorin! staff productivity. /ou want to know if introducin! this system willcost you more than it benefits you. /ou have a feelin! that at some point in thefuture, you may recoup your costs and start benefitin! from the scheme. In otherwords, you want to know how lon! it would take to break even.

,te &- .$entif# Costs

One-o Costs

$ime lo!!in! software with 87 licences BK,777

$wo new servers to run the software BC,777

Staff trainin! to use the software B977 per employee B8,777

!O!"# $14%000





On&oin& Costs

$ime lo!!in! software support B9777 M /ear

"mployee time lost due to spendin!time to fill in time lo!s

Spendin! an avera!e of 97 minutes perday

'vera!e cost of each employee includin!overhead per day is B977

$otal cost for 87 employees B999per day

BCG,GF7 per year

I$ support BG77 M year

!O!"# $30%660 'er (ear

#%# L $%S#S B *70 C , 099 B G77099 for the first year

,te /- .$entif# <ene=ts

Bene its

Increased productivity since everyone)stime is now lo!!ed B877 per person per year BC8,777 peryear

"fficient project mana!ement willresult in reduced penalties for latedeliveries

B9G,777 per year

'bility to draw new strate!y based onthis data, so staff)s time is distributedcorrectly between development, sales,marketin! and internal support

BC7,777 per year

!O!"# $63%000 'er (ear

,te - Ca"cu"ate Pa#3ack 'ime

:ayback $ime $otal -osts M $otal enefits ==,FF7 M F;,777 7.K7 year G.8months.

In other words, you will !et back your ori!inal investment in about G.8 month. $hisis known as the $rea -e en point. ' !reat way to see this trend visually is to !raphthe costs and the benefits as shown below.


Total +osts

Total 0enefits

reak0"ven:oint

$ime

B

+akin!Loss

+akin!:rofit




;ariations

's you saw in the e#ample, estimatin! cost and benefits can sometimes besubjective and as the parameters !et more comple# you may need to use moresophisticated analysis to calculate the benefits and costs before movin! on to do- '.

's the si&e of the project and the amount of money involved is increased you needto consider many new parameters, such as the cost of the interest, ta# rules,hidden char!es, insurance and so on. $he calculations can easily become comple#as you need to consider local laws which is a field in its own ri!ht. Interestedreaders should look into financial analysis, accountin! and bud!etin! literature forfurther details.





7 Decision 'rees“If you donHt design your own life !lan0 chances are youHll fall into someone

elseHs !lan. nd guess what they ha e !lanned for you 4ot much"

Jim 3ohn


1ra!h your decisions and the corres!onding outcomes isually and calculatethe best course of action

When analysin! a problem, sometimes you need to consider many options and theirimplications. /ou may want to evaluate each case)s risk and put it in perspectivewith other options. 's always, if you can carry out a %uantitative analysis, your

decision makin! becomes easier.Indeed, there is a techni%ue to achieve this. It is known as decision trees . /ou cancreate a tree of decisions alon! with associated risks, rewards and costs for eachoption.

When to +se?

(se this techni%ue to make a balanced decision and choose a course of actionappropriate for the level of risk you are willin! to take. It is also helpful when youhave limited resources and want to make an optimal decision. Decision tree helpsyou understand alternative courses of actions better, so when you make the final

decision you understand your !ains and sacrifices.

How to +se?

$o use a decision tree follow these steps• Ste! *' Identify the -roblem.• Ste! +' $reate a tree of choices.

o Draw a number of potential decisions.o *or each decision, identify possible outcomes or further decisions to

make.•

Ste! ,' Identify the costs0 benefits and !robabilities.





o Identify probabilities of each outcome and record the cost or benefitof each one of these possible outcomes.

• Ste! 7' -arse the tree.o :arse throu!h the tree startin! from the leaves and work backwards

to calculate the cost of each branch based on its probability and costvalue. >nce the entire tree is traversed, you will end with a value foreach decision which you can use to decide which decision is the mostideal for you.

Exam "e

Let)s !o throu!h an e#ample to better illustrate this

,te 1- .$entif# the Pro3"em

/ou have made a new invention and are considerin! various manufacturin! options./ou want to know the best course of action !iven the probabilities of eachoutcome for each decision and choose an option that would benefit you most.

,te &- Create a 'ree of Choices

Start from the left side of the pa!e and draw a small s%uare. ranch out of thiss%uare based on a number of decisions. 't each branch you have two choices

• Draw more decisions usin! a small s%uare• Identify a number of outcomes by drawin! a small circle and branchin! out.

*or e#ample, your decision tree may look like the followin!.





,te /- .$entif# the Costs> <ene=ts an$ Pro3a3i"ities

ow !o throu!h the tree and identify the followin!• -robabilities of each outcome. @emember, outcomes are drawn from small

circles so it is easy to see which branches need a probability. Write these aspercenta!e or as a number out of one. $he sum of all outcomes shouldbecome 9 or 977A.

• (enefits of each outcome. @ecord these in front of each outcome branch./ou need to use a common currency for all of your calculations in re!ardwith costs and benefits. *or this e#ample, a representative value is used foreach outcome showin! the profit made over a specific amount of time incase that outcome is realised. In reality, you need to carry out appropriateresearch to %uantify each outcome in this way.

• $ost of each decision. $his is a value that represents how much a particulardecision costs you. Decisions are drawn as branches connected to s%uares.







,te - Parse the 'ree

e#t, calculate the cost versus benefit for each decision. $o do this, for eachcircular node calculate a value usin! the probabilities and the benefits. $his valuerepresents the total benefit if you made that decision whatever the outcome.

e#t, subtract the cost of the decision you identified in the previous step from thebenefit you just calculated and write this ne#t to each decision 4branchesconnected to s%uares5. -alculations are shown below in the decision tree.

's you can see, two decisions actually lead to loss while two others lead to profit.$he most profitable option is to use local contract manufacturin!. $he leastprofitable option, which in facts leads to a loss of BCC=,777, is to build a localplant. It seems that the best option to roll out this invention is not to use othermanufacturers) services.

$he decision tree is a !reat tool to use to lo!ically or!anise your options andoutcomes for each decision. It is %uite powerful even if used just as a tree withoutprobability or costMbenefit. It can open up areas you mi!ht not have thou!ht of before much like usin! %ind %aps .

-alculatin! the probabilities and costMbenefit values is not always strai!htforward, thou!h even estimates can !uide you towards better areas of the decisiontree where you can spend more time to fine tune your decisions or increase theaccuracy of your estimates.






B977,777

BC7,777

B9G7,777

B9C7,777

G7,777

B87,777

B8,777

BC77,777

B977,777

BC7,777

7.K N 977,777E 7.; N C7,777 KF,777

7.F N 9G7,777 E7.C N 9C7,777 E7.9 N G7,777 9=7,777

7.G N 87,777 E7.8 N 8,777 =C,877

7.8 N C77,777 E7.; N 977,777 E7.C N C7,777 9;=,777





B977,777

BC7,777

B9G7,777

B9C7,777

G7,777

B87,777

B8,777

BC77,777

B977,777

BC7,777

KF,777

9=7,777

=C,877

9;=,777

-ost B;77,777

-ost B87,777

-ost B9;7,777

-ost B 7,777

KF,777 H ;77,777 0 CC=,777 4L>SS5

=C,877 H 9;7,777 0GK,877 4L>SS5

9=7,777 H 87,777 7,777 4 " "*I$5

9;=,777 H 7,777 ==,777 4 " "*I$5




;ariations

Decision trees can be %uite comple# and as more nodes are added morecalculations are re%uired. Dedicated software tools are available that canfacilitate the process of drawin! up the tree, easy modification and parsin! based

on your values.





8 Decision MakingPrinci "es

“(y three methods we may learn wisdom' First0 by reflection0 which isnoblestK Second0 by imitation0 which is easiestK and third by e6!erience0

which is the bitterest"$onfucius


#ake ad antage of many age old !rinci!les0 guidelines and heuristics to makethe wisest decisions

'lthou!h it is essential to be familiar with a set of decision makin! tools, you mustbe aware that not all decisions must be made. Some decisions are more importantthan others and interestin!ly optimum decisions may not always lead to yourbenefit.

In this session, we will e#plore a number of principles in re!ard with decisionmakin! that you must always consider before attemptin! any of the tools you learnin this course or others you learn anywhere else.

)ccam’s a@or

>ccam)s ra&or can be best described as follows

“/hen confronted with two com!eting theories that make e6actly thesame !redictions0 the sim!ler one is the better"

$he principle is attributed to William of >ckham, 9= th century "n!lish lo!ician.>ther than its philosophical implications 4such as refutin! the e#istence of !od and(*>)s5, when it comes to everyday decision makin! this principle effectively leadsto the followin!

“/hen you ha e se eral acce!table e6!lanations for a !articular !henomenon0 the sim!lest solution that best describes the !henomenonwithout any contradiction is the !referred o!tion"

In other words, if you have carried out some research and have found twoalternative e#planations where one is %uite simple and the other is e#tremely





elaborate and involves many fields and assumptions, the simpler option ispreferred. $he name ra4or su!!ests that you cut the search space of possibilitiesand leave out comple# solutions in favour of simpler ones. In short, si%plicity is

practical .

@emember, >ccam)s ra&or is used as a heuristic 4rule of thumb5 which can help youchoose between possible e#planations or eventual outcomes.


O55am9s &a:or in Disg7ise$he principle has been e#pressed and named in many ways and has inspirednumerous variations which effectively e#plain the same idea. 1ere are anumber of common variations or namin!.

4ames

OPISS :rincipleQ 4Peep It Simple, Stupid5

O:arsimony of :ostulatesQ

O:rinciple of :luralityQ

O:rinciple of SimplicityQ

-rinci!le

O"ntities should not be multiplied beyond necessityQ

O:luralities ou!ht not be posited without necessityQO"ntities are not to be multiplied without necessityQ

OWhen decidin! between two models which make e%uivalentpredictions, choose the simpler oneQ

OSimplicity is the ultimate sophisticationQ 4Leonardo da <inci5

O$he simplest answer is usually the correct answerQ

O+ake everythin! as simple as possible, but not simplerQ 4'lbert"instein5

OWe are to admit no more causes of natural thin!s than such as areboth true and sufficient to e#plain their appearancesQ 4Isaac ewton5

O>f two e%uivalent theories or e#planations, all other thin!s bein!e%ual, the simpler one is to be preferredQ

Rand for Latin enthusiasts O entia non sunt %ultiplicanda praeternecessitate5




Pareto Princi "e

:areto principles states that

“ of the effects come from + of the causes"

$his principle, also known as 67-87 rule , was discovered by <ilfredo :areto fromhis ori!inal observation of land ownership in Italy. 1e discovered that G7A of theland was owned by C7A of the population. 1owever, further research andobservation shows that this rule is universal and applicable to many fields. *ore#ample

• OG7A of your sales come from C7A of your clients.Q• OG7A of faults found in an electronic board come from C7A of the

componentsQ• OG7A of the world)s income is controlled by C7A of the world)s populationQ• OG7A of the software faults ori!inate from C7A of software bu!sQ• OC7A of your effort leads to G7A of your incomeQ 4'n e#tremely important

productivity principle5

When makin! decisions, always consider the :areto principles and pay theappropriate amount of attention to each option and outcome. -rucial decisionsmay lead to si!nificant outcomes which you need to consider in the conte#t of yourdecision makin! process.

@emember, the principle holds when the data under observation is sufficientlylar!e to be statistically meanin!ful. Don)t just apply the rule to everythin! hopin!for miracles2 *or e#ample, you mi!ht wron!ly decide that a project)s developmentmust fit the G70C7 rule and so you only need to allocate C7A of the resources to !et!ood results2 Instead, use the principle as an observation of a lar!e data set so youcan make strate#ically wise decisions to streamline your process and focus on theC7A that matters most.

4otes'• $here is nothin! special about G7. It is just that most observations end up

around G7 and hence the principle is e#pressed as G70C7 rule.• It is possible to have G7097 or G70;7. $he numbers don)t have to add up to

977.

Parkinson’s Law"ar inson’s 9aw states that

“/ork e6!ands to fill the time a ailable for its com!letion"

It was first articulated by -yril :arkinson in the "conomist in the 9 87s whenreportin! on the si&e of bureaucracies.

When makin! decisions you many need to think of resources, plans and schedules.(se the :arkinson)s Law to increase the efficiency of your decisions and plans.

>ther ways to e#press the law or its variations are as follows•

O$he demand upon a resource seems to e#pand to match the supply of theresource.Q







Aame 'heor#

Decisions can be captured mathematically usin! #a%e theory . "ffectively, eachdecision has a payoff and these payoffs can be set a!ainst the payoff of otherindividuals makin! decisions a!ainst you. 6ame theory was e#tensively researched

durin! the cold war to understand the effect of decisions made on deployin!nuclear weapons. $he subse%uent results helped many fields includin! naturalsciences as well as business decision makin!.

$he best way to e#amine this is with an e#ample Suppose there are two countrieswhere one has an abundance of banana and the other has plenty of oran!es. $hesetwo countries can trade with each other and both benefit from this transaction.$his is known as a non-4ero su% #a%e . In other words, if you add the benefits of both parties, you end up with a positive benefit which is not &ero. +akin! decisionin this case is not that difficult as the relationship will benefit both sides.

In contrast, you may have a situation where if you win you !et all the benefits andthe other party doesn)t, or if the other party wins, you !et nothin!. If you now addup all the benefits, the result would be &ero as the benefits will cancel each otherout. $his is called a 4ero-su% #a%e . *or e#ample, cuttin! a pie is a &ero0sum !amesince if you take a lar!er pie, others will receive smaller amounts. Tero0sum !ameslead to conflicts and are also known to be stron#ly co%petiti e.

' conflict can have a payoff %atri! which is illustrated below. Suppose there aretwo people makin! decisions, @ed 4 old5 and lue 4 ormal5. @ed has a choicebetween 'ction 9 and 'ction C while lue has a choice of 'ction ' and 'ction .

'

1 )20 , 0C7 -10 , E97

2 )10 , 097 )30 , 0;7

*or e#ample, if @ed selects 'ction 9 and lue selects 'ction ', @ed wins C7 andlue loses C7. Suppose they want to cast their votes secretly, what should they doto win the ma#imum amount of points?

@ed looks at the matri# and follows this reasonin! If I choose 'ction 9, I may lose97, but if I choose 'ction C, I win either 97 or ;7. So I will !o for 'ction C. Similarlylue thinks that choosin! 'ction ' means losin! either C7 or 97 while with 'ction C,at least there is hope of winnin! 97. If lue chooses 'ction and @ed chooses'ction C, @ed wins ;7 and loses ;7. $he situation !ets interestin! if lue thinks abit more and tries to be deceptive. lue may decide to choose 'ction ' insteadhopin! to only lose 097, assu%in# that @ed will choose 'ction 9. 1owever, @ed mayalso anticipate this and choose 'ction 9 which means @ed wins C7 and lue losesC7.

's you can see both parties have to consider the other person)s choices,

aspirations and reasonin!. $he solution, as was ori!inally su!!ested by Uon voneumann and later e#tensively elaborated by Uohn ash is to use probability.





'n interestin! situation in !ame theory is prisoner’s dile%%a . "ffectively, theseseries of e#periments and analysis show that followin! self0interest by everyonewhile ne!otiatin! may lead them to sub0optimal solutions while cooperation maylead to better results for all those involved.

$he interested reader should refer to classic works in !ame theory for furtherdetails. ' !ood start would be en.wikipedia.or!MwikiM6ameJtheory . ' !ood book isO(elfish Gene Q by @ichard Dawkins which e#plains !ame theory in detail and alsoits si!nificance and application in nature and evolutionary strate!ies.

'he 'rage$# of the Commons

So far in this course you have been introduced to many tools to improve yourdecision makin! process. 'fter all, the intention is to make decisions withoutcomes that improve your situation and is beneficial to you.

ut is it always better to make decisions thinkin! solely about your own benefits?

It turns out that if you are the only person makin! the decision, it is best to focuson personal benefit. 1owever, if you have a !roup of people who are armed with atoolbo# of decision makin! tools and are capable of makin! almost perfectdecisions, then it is possible that no one may !et optimal results2 In other words, itis possible for you to make a decision that is most ideal based on your owncircumstances and calculations, but still end up with sub0optimal results. >n postanalysis, you may discover that you deserved better despite havin! made theperfect choice2

1ow is this possible?

$his seemin!ly parado#ical concept was first e#plored and popularised by 6arrett1ardin in his 9 FG science essay O The tra#edy of the co%%ons5.

$he problem is best described by an e#ample. 1ardin stated that suppose you havea community with access to a common land for the !ra&in! of animals. Since theresource is limited, it is to everyone)s benefit to add more and more animals to theland and take advanta!e of the resource. $here is a lar!e incentive for people toact selfishly. $he problem is that the pasture is sli!htly de!raded by eachadditional animal. If people keep addin! animals, it will eventually e#haust theresource and ruin everythin!. 's 1ardin stated

:Therein is the tra#edy. ;ach %an is loc ed into a syste% that co%pels hi%

to increase his herd without li%it& in a world that is li%ited. <uin is thedestination toward which all %en rush& each pursuin# his own $est interestin a society that $elie es in the freedo% of the co%%ons. ,reedo% in aco%%ons $rin#s ruin to all.5

$he crucial fact is that one individual may !ain all the advanta!es, but thedisadvanta!e is shared between all the individuals usin! the resource.

1ence, everyone keeps e#ploitin! the resource until no one can benefit from itanymore. 3*ree rider) is sometimes used as the terminolo!y to describe thebehaviour of such e#ploitin! individuals. *ree riders are people who consume morethan their fair share of a resource, or shoulder less than a fair share of the costs of

its production.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory






9 %omina" Arou 'echniBue%b&ecti e'

(y the end of this session you will be able to'

Make o!timal decisions in grou!s by using e eryoneHs in!uts and !re entindi iduals from dominating the decision making !rocess

uite often you may need to make decisions in !roups. In this and subse%uentsessions, you will be introduced to a number of techni%ues that will help you !etthe best out of your meetin!s and take advanta!e of everyone)s uni%ue inputs.

'hinking in Arou s

Suppose a !roup of people !et to!ether to make a decision. -an they always makean optimal decision? "#perience shows that sometimes 4in fact more often thatdesired5 the !roup interaction actually reduces the %uality of the decisions made.

$here are many reasons behind this phenomenon. Some are as follows• $he !roup criticise each other continuously and novel ideas !et killed before

they have a chance to be e#amined.• ' senior member or a dominant individual imposes his or her opinion on

others.• Uunior members may feel shy to e#press their views in fear of lookin! stupid

or simply !ettin! a backlash from seniors.• $he !roup may fall into #roupthin . "veryone is so ea!er for the !roup to

reach consensus that the decision is made without thorou!h analysis.+embers avoid presentin! views which they think mi!ht be outside thecomfort &one of the !roup.

Is there a way to avoid these issues when thinkin! in !roups? It turns out that byusin! a systematic method to isolate decision makin! and emotional setup of the!roup you can si!nificantly increase the efficiently of !roup decision makin!.

$here are a number of tools developed specifically to address these issues and alsohelp the !roup to come up with new ideas rather than fallin! back on what theyalready know.

Let)s start with the 'o%inal Group Techni/ue .





%omina" Arou 'echniBue

$his techni%ue commonly abbreviated as 6$ helps to overcome problemsencountered when people attempt to make decisions as a !roup. In particular, itaddresses a common problem in !roup thinkin! where the votes of the lar!est

!roup or most talkative individual come to influence the outcomedisproportionately. 6$ helps to normalise the process of votin! so everyone)sviews are heard and their votes are counted.

When to +se?

(se 6$ when• /ou suspect some members mi!ht not fully participate.• /ou want to !enerate as many ideas as possible.• /ou have individuals who are more dominant than others.• /ou have a mi# of senior and junior members.• /ou have introverts in the !roup who prefer to think in silence, but are

capable of comin! up with !reat solutions if !iven a chance.• $he problem under consideration is seen as controversial and you e#pect

heated debates which may lead to conflicts.• /ou have some new members in the !roup who mi!ht be shy or reluctant to

talk over others to e#press their own opinion. @ecent !raduates usually brin!wealth of novel ideas to a company thou!h they can be hesitant to !oa!ainst the norms fearin! potential backlashes.

How to +se?*ollow these steps to carry out 6$

• Ste! *' Identify the !roblem.o $he !roup is introduced to each other and the problem is defined.

$his step should not be used to discuss potential solutions instead itshould be used to make sure everyone understands the true problem.$o streamline the process, a facilitator should be nominated. $heproblem can be distributed on paper 4memo or email5 to allindividuals in the !roup to prevent premature debates.

o Allocated ti%e ) 17 %inutes• Ste! +' 1enerate ideas silently.

o In this step, individuals should work in isolation and write their ideasand solutions on paper. $hey should !enerate as many ideas as theycan think of. 6roup members are not allowed to debate or share theirideas with each other.

o Allocated ti%e ) 17 to 37 %inutes• Ste! ,' 1rou! discussion.

o $he facilitator asks each member in turn to present his or hersolution to the !roup. >thers are encoura!ed to seek further details if

necessary to fully understand the proposed solution. $he facilitator





should make sure that all views are !iven e%ual time and everyone isheard. $he discussions should be free of criticism and jud!ement.

o 's a result of these discussions, new ideas mi!ht be !enerated whichshould be captured and recorded in the pool of all possible solutions.

o Duplicate solutions are removed so that by the end of this session, allthe representative ideas are captured systematically.

o Allocated ti%e ) 37 to =7 %inutes• Ste! 7' >oting.

o ' desi!nator is identified for each solution. "ach participant ranks thesolution as 9 st , Cnd, ; rd and so on.

o >nce all the rankin!s are recorded, the facilitator collects theproposed rankin!s from everyone and calculates a total by addin! theranks for each solution.

o $he solutions are sorted in order of these totals from low to hi!h. $helowest total is the best ranked solution and can be chosen as the

ideal solution.o +any variations e#ist in this step where the total ranks may identify

potential solutions that mi!ht become the ultimate solution withfurther work or fine tunin!.

o Allocated ti%e ) 37 %inutes

's you can see, this method encoura!es everyone to present their views withoutfear of others so all views are heard. In addition, because solutions are presentedindividually without interference from others, members will not be afraid of creatin! conflicts. $he votes will fully capture the opinion of the participants

without the risk of interference from others or the risk of upsettin! someone elsethrou!h a heated debate.





1: De" hi Metho$%b&ecti e'

(y the end of this session you will be able to'

2se a structured method to collect and !rocess o!inions of a !anel of e6!ertswhile a oiding common grou! discussion issues

When makin! decisions, sometimes you mi!ht need to make a forecast. *orecastin!may involve a number of e#perts who will provide their opinion on a variety of fields and work to!ether corporately. 's you have seen, unstructured !roupthinkin! can lead to a suboptimal outcome and when it comes to forecastin!, thiscan have !rave conse%uences. In business, !ettin! your forecastin! wron! is like!oin! throu!h a slow death and not knowin! where you have been hit. In thissession, you will be introduced to a powerful techni%ue popular in the business

world that helps you increase the accuracy of your forecastin! and decision makin!substantially when makin! decisions as a !roup.

Histor#

$he Delphi method was developed durin! the cold war and was used to forecastthe technolo!ical pro!ress of warfare. "ffectively, the system seeks the opinion of e#perts in the field usin! a structured approach and facilitates information flowwhile allowin! e#perts to remain anonymous 4if desired5 so they can present theirviews without fear of criticism and jud!ement.

When to +se?(se this techni%ue when

• /ou want to allow all e#perts to present their views freely• :articipants want to remain anonymous• :articipants want to correct themselves easily so they are encoura!ed not to

stick to their ori!inal idea even when they realise they were wron!

How to +se?

(se the followin! steps to apply the Delphi +ethod• Ste! *' Identify a facilitator.







• :articipants are encoura!ed to revisit their own positions and chan!e it if necessary. ecause the process is anonymous, it is much easier for e#pertsto chan!e position without worryin! about their e!o.

• :articipants remain anonymous even after a final consensus has beenreached. $his allows e#perts to freely e#press opinion and not to beaffected by authority or ridicule.

• $he process reduces the herd mentality seen in !roup discussion where mostof the talk seems to be around a few ideas that were initially proposed andthe !roup as a whole seem stuck in one corner of the search space.

• ecause participants may not know what others will su!!est, the need toconform to !roupthink is also reduced, allowin! !eneration of more ideas.

In !eneral, when usin! any decision makin! method, be aware of pitfalls. -aremust be taken to use this method correctly to !et optimum results. $he choice of e#perts is important in evaluatin! the %uality of their consensus. If they arei!norant about certain topics which is not brou!ht into the discussion, the Delphi+ethod can only increase their confidence in their i!norance. 'n amateur outsidermi!ht be able to beat the e#perts) forecasts easily due to e#tra knowled!e thatmi!ht not have been considered in the !roup. In any case, the method brin!s manyadvanta!es over unstructured !roup discussion which makes it an ideal tool forcertain applications.







with solutions they can present to others in the meetin!. otice thatthis is not just sendin! a memo out. /ou re%uire the participants tohave thou!ht about the solutions and to brin! supportin! resources tothe meetin! to present their ar!ument.

• Ste! +' Form a core grou!.o >n the day of the meetin!, select two people to form a core #roup .

'sk them to discuss the solution with each other.• Ste! ,' dd a !erson to the core grou!.

o 'dd a third person to the core !roup and ask him to present his caseto the !roup $efore hearin! what the current !roup thinks. e#t, thecore !roup presents their ideas and all three discuss the optionsto!ether.

• Ste! 7' dd another !erson to the grou!. o 'dd another person to the current !roup and repeat the process one

person at a time. +ake sure that the timin! is fair every time a new

person is added.• Ste! 8' $ontinue to 3each $onsensus.

o $he !roup carries on discussin! the options until a consensus isreached.

's you can see, the method helps the participants to avoid !roup think andencoura!es constructive discussion.

*or best results, use the Stepladder $echni%ue with a small !roup of = to 8 people.'s the number of people in a !roup is increased 4beyond or 975, reachin!decisions becomes e#ponentially more difficult due to the necessary increase ininteraction and increased number of people to satisfy.

Di*erences with the De" hi Metho$

$he Stepladder $echni%ue may appear similar to some e#tent to the Delphi +ethodyou saw earlier.

$he followin! are a number of differences between the two methods• $he Stepladder $echni%ue is %uicker than the Delphi +ethod.• $he Delphi +ethod is suitable for a lar!e number of people while the

Stepladder $echni%ue is ideal for smaller !roups.• $he Delphi +ethod is suitable for major decisions and forecasts where

formality of the process is important. $he Stepladder $echni%ue can be usedfor simpler problems.

• $he Delphi +ethod re%uires a facilitator who is in char!e of the process. Italso re%uires a lot more formal facilitation such as sendin! and receivin! theanonymous %uestionnaires. $he Stepladder $echni%ue does not re%uire afacilitator and all members are treated e%ual. $he initial core !roup and these%uence to add participants can be randomised as well to make the processcompletely fair.

• $he participants in the Delphi +ethod do not know each other and thesolutions are declared anonymously. In the Stepladder $echni%ue,

participants hold face0to0face discussions and the information flow is nolon!er controlled throu!h a facilitator.





eferences-ovey S., 49 G 5 :> a$its of hi#hly ;ffecti e people5 , WS ookwell.

Dawkins, @. 49 G 2 :(elfish Gene5 , >#ford :aperbacks Cnd @evised edition, ISKG079 CGF7 CK.

De ono, "., 49 85 :(erious +reati ity@ Usin# the "ower of 9ateral Thin in# to+reate 'ew deas5 , 1arper-ollins :ublishers Ltd, IS KG0777F;K 8G=

1ardin, 6., 49 FG5 :The Tra#edy of the +o%%ons5 , Science, <ol. 9FC, o. ;G84December 9;, 9 FG5, pp. 9C=;09C=G.

Poch, @. 4C7795 O$he G7MC7 :rinciple $he Secret of 'chievin! +ore with LessQ,icholas realey :ublishin! 4London5.

>rpen, -. 49 85 :Usin# the stepladder techni/ue to i%pro e tea% perfor%ance5$eam :erformance +ana!ement, 94;5, C=0CK.

:arkinson, -. ., 49 ;5 :"ar inson’s 9aw5 , uccaneer ooks, IS KG098FG= 7989

:opper, P. 49 C5 O The 9o#ic of (cientific Disco ery5& @outled!e, Cnd ed., London.pp. 9C9H9;C. IS KG07=98CKG==K

@owe V Wri!ht 4C7795 :;!pert pinions in ,orecastin#. <ole of the DelphiTechni/ue Q. :rinciples of *orecastin!, ' 1andbook of @esearchers and:ractitioners, oston Pluwer 'cademic :ublishers.

@ussell, S., orvi!, :. 4C77;5 :Artificial ntelli#ence@ A odern Approach5 , :earson"ducation, IS KG079;7G7;7C;

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2. Workbook DecisionMaking

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