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8/13/2019 On Scientific Military Decisionmaking Process
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On Scientific DecisionMaking Process
Group 1 Team 3
8/13/2019 On Scientific Military Decisionmaking Process
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How Can DecisionBeing Scientific?
thinking on
How
Military
ec s on a ng rocess e ng
Scientific
8/13/2019 On Scientific Military Decisionmaking Process
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AIM: to determine how to make
SCOPE OF PRESENTATIONTheoretical frameworkThe scientific Structure of MDMP
and its drawbacks
Conclusions
8/13/2019 On Scientific Military Decisionmaking Process
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8/13/2019 On Scientific Military Decisionmaking Process
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The scientific
Structure
of
DMP and its drawbacks
InputInformation
Fog and Friction
Decision Neurosis – Emotions
Subject ofDecisionFRICTION
Maker
Output ofGroup Think - Subjectivity
FRICTION
InstructionsMicromanagement
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The scientific Structure of MDMP and its drawbacks
is given by the uncertainty ofthe actual forces in the
Develop a scientific IPB. Notgreat amount of information
The Foga e e suc as enemy,
allies, civilians, armed
groups.
means e er . coube an “Information
Overload” Technology
products
In this step the friction is Is not necessary to be a
The Friction
given to commander in otherwords, WT. . . . the senior
.sense when you give morethan one task, give priority
should do!!!!! .
could help if make easy theunderstanding of the task.
8/13/2019 On Scientific Military Decisionmaking Process
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The scientific
Structure
of
MDMP and its drawbacks
Drawbacks Description SolutionMilitary organization could Scientific leaders’ selection
Neurosis
people, when becamecommanders, they could bevictims of co nitive
.against cognitive dissonance
dissonance
The human brain decidemore b emotions than
The technology could help toshow onl the critical
mo ons reason information to focus therationality in such decision.
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Cognitive dissonance is anuncomfortable feeling caused byholding conflict ing ideassimultaneously. The theory ofcognitive dissonance proposes
that people have a motivational.
do this by changing theirattitudes, beliefs, and actions.
justifying, blaming, and denying.It is one of the most influentialand extensivel studied theoriesin social psychology.
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Cognitive dissonance is anuncomfortable feeling caused byholding conflict ing ideassimultaneously. The theory ofcognitive dissonance proposes
that people have a motivational.
do this by changing theirattitudes, beliefs, and actions.
justifying, blaming, and denying.It is one of the most influentialand extensivel studied theoriesin social psychology.
8/13/2019 On Scientific Military Decisionmaking Process
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MOVIE: a brid etoo far
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=4ZB2F23S&w=696&h=
359
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The scientific
Structure
of
MDMP and its drawbacks
Drawbacks Description SolutionIt is the general designation Again the training and
undesiredeffects ofthe team
phenomenon when a groupshould develop a decisionmakin rocess. We onl
.sociology we can build upgroups that think in differentwa s. The technolo could
work talk about the Group Thinkand Abilene Paradox
help to get information and tolink this groups.
The COA is not related b The COA should beSubjectivityin COA
the Mission or in notconfronted against the ECOA
considered as hypothesisand should be analyzed andverified by experimentation
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The scientific Structure of MDMP and its drawbacks
Subordinate leaders don’tcarry out orders in the
Auftragstaktik : is aphilosophy of MDMP. It
’
Friction(again..)
wait for orders under
unexpected circumstances or
education by pedagogies
that enhance initiative,
orders when the situation haschanged
responsibility. Also impliedthe confidence between highand lower level leaders.
Micromana
The information advantage isnullified when the Cdr tries to
The technology should befocused in the future threats.
gemen the chain of command. subordinates’ s AOR of
leaders are their business
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Intuitive Analytical ArtUnderstandEx lanation
ScienceKnowledgeConcrete
Divergences Assumptions
PerceptionConcepts
ObservationConvergence
FactsTasks
UncertaintyCertainly
Good planners balanced betweenanalysis and intuition
Why? How?
The nature gives the human brain with analytical and intuitivemeans, so is no reason to block and avoid to use one of them
The nature gives the human brain with analytical and intuit ive means,so is no reason to block and avoid to use one of them instead of theother. The rationally tools should be well balanced with the intuit ive
.with the intuitive tools.
More facts more rational, less facts more intuit ive
.More facts more rational, less facts more intuitive.Technology should mean t iming and get into the Enemy’s OODA loop.
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Intuitive Analytical ArtUnderstandEx lanation
ScienceKnowledgeConcrete A good plan violently executed NOW is
Divergences Assumptions
PerceptionConcepts
ObservationConvergence
FactsTasks
UncertaintyCertainlybetter than a perfect plan next week.
GEN GEORGE S. PATTON JR
Good planners balanced betweenanalysis and intuition
Why? How?
The nature gives the human brain with analytical and intuitivemeans, so is no reason to block and avoid to use one of them
The nature gives the human brain with analytical and intuit ive means,so is no reason to block and avoid to use one of them instead of theother. The rationally tools should be well balanced with the intuit ive
.with the intuitive tools.
More facts more rational, less facts more intuit ive
.More facts more rational, less facts more intuitive.Technology should mean t iming and get into the Enemy’s OODA loop.
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The MDMP is a science and an artNo need large amount of information
we need timely and accurateintelligence.
The MDMP could be scientific if the
selection and training of leadersecame more sc ent c . ere
psychology and sociology are useful.The MDMP should trend to be
.absolutely scientific because thehuman nature.
,but don’t become a “ technoslave”
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Trained and Scientific Scientific
Leaders IPB COA
Psychologicaland Scientific
Sociologicalshortcomings
MDMP