O x
f o
r d
R
e s
e a
r c
h
Falkoner allé 20
DK-2000 Frederiksberg
Tlf.: 33 69 13 69
Fax: 33 69 13 33
E-mail: [email protected]
Hjemmeside: www.oxfordresearch.dk
Tourism Industry: Employment and labour market challenges
Prague June 2009
Scenarios for the hotels & restaurant sector
Presentation by
Jakob Stoumann, Senior analyst
Oxford ResearchCopenhagen
- a company in the Oxford Group -
Definition of the sector
Hotels and other short stay accommodations 55.1 Hotels 55.10 Hotels 55.2 Camping sites and other provision of short-stay accommodation 55.21 Youth hostels and mountain refuges 55.22 Camping sites, including caravan sites 55.23 Other provisions of lodging n.e.c.
Restaurants and bars, 55.3 Restaurants 55.30 Restaurants 55.4 Bars 55.40 Bars
Canteens and catering 55.5 Canteens and catering 55.51 Canteens 55.52 Catering
Different characteristics:• The Hotels, restaurants, and bars sub-sectors are both closely connected to tourism; Catering and canteens are barely linked to it at all.
• In the Hotels, Restaurants and bars sub-sectors SME’s are very important. Parts of the catering sector (the contract catering sector) are characterized by high company concentration.
- a company in the Oxford Group -
The Scenario methodology
The general economic development:• Continued economic growth and
globalisation or,• Economic recession and nationalism
The development of certain consumer trends• Puritanism or,• Escapism
Two uncertain but very important drivers for the Hotels and restaurants sector has been identified. Scenarios describe possible developments until 2020.
- a company in the Oxford Group -
Crossing drivers of change
Puritanism
Consumers will develop a more puritan and
spiritual approach to consumption. The
personal responsibility concerning for example
health, environment, climate and fair trade is
taken very serious. Saving before spending
becomes more important. Economic recession and nationalism
A recession will influence the society for the next 10-12 years. It will result in increased nationalism and regionalism where regions
and nations turn their back to global cooperation concentrating on their own lack of
resources.
Economic growth and globalisation
The ongoing economic crisis is just a minor and short economic slow down. With such a positive economic development increased
globalisation will follow.Escapism
Consumption is typically driven by the ‘faster, better, bigger’ ideology. Climate problems for example are not seen as a personal responsibility´. The escapists are concerned about health and the fairness of the world but tend to escape via wellness and traditional luxury.
- a company in the Oxford Group -
The four scenarios
Economic recession and nationalism
Continued economic growth and globalisation
Scenario 1
The Marco Polo Scenario
Scenario 2
The Sunny Beach
Scenario
Puritanism
Scenario 3
The Body Shop Scenario
Scenario 4
The Asceticism Scenario
Escapism
- a company in the Oxford Group -
The Marco Polo Scenario
Escapism
Economic growth and globalisation
The Marco Polo Scenario
• High individualisation • Some specialisation possibilities • Polarisation of the market• High growth in both inbound and outbound tourism• Wellness and traditional luxury
- a company in the Oxford Group -
The Sunny Beach Scenario
Escapism
Economic recession and nationalism
The Sunny Beach Scenario• Mass produce, economies of scale • Highly price driven market • Conformity• Comfort – but no luxury• Regionalisation of travelling
- a company in the Oxford Group -
The Body Shop Scenario
Puritanism
Economic growth and globalisation
The Body Shop Scenario
• High individualisation• Many specialisation possibilities • Segmentation of the market• Healthy lifestyle and holidays• Goodness: volunteering, fair trade, organic food, etc.
- a company in the Oxford Group -
The Asceticism Scenario
Puritanism
Economic recession and nationalism
The Asceticism Scenario
• Basic living – simple holidaying• ‘Close-to-home’ tourism• Experiences: healthy, sustainable and cheap• Food: vegetarian, organic, local produce, simple
- a company in the Oxford Group -
Scenarios implications
Table 5.1: Scenarios’ implications Hotels and restaurants
Issue
Scenario
Companyconcentration
Role of SMEs Level of emerging
competences &skills
Employmentlevel
Scenario 1: The Marco Polo Scenario
High Medium Medium High
Scenario 2: The Sunny Beach Scenario
High Low Low Stagnation
Scenario 3: The Body Shop Scenario
Medium Medium High Medium
Scenario 4: The Asceticism Scenario
Low High Medium Decrease
Source: Oxford Research 2008
- a company in the Oxford Group -
Emerging Competences in the scenarios
Tasks and emerging competences Main occupationa
l function
The Marco Polo Scenario
The Sunny Beach Scenario
The Body Shop Scenario The Asceticism Scenario
General Managemen
t
• Entrepreneurship• Knowledge about health, environment and climate• CSR• Knowledge about ICT• International financial management•Intercultural management
• International financial management• Knowledge about ICT• Contract management• Rationalisation methods and techniques
• Entrepreneurship• Project management• Multicultural
management • International networking• Knowledge about ICT• Knowledge about health, environment and climate• CSR
• Knowledge about health, environment and climate• CSR• Rationalisation methods and techniques
Marketing • International corporate branding• Branding through ICT• Employer branding
• International corporate branding• Branding through ICT
• Incorporating sustainability
and CSR in corporate branding
• Exploring new, individualised
market segments• Employer branding• Branding through ICT
• Employer branding• Incorporating
sustainability and CSR in branding • Branding through ICT
R&D • Developing new, uniqueindividualised hospitality experiences• Developing and applying ICT and internet solutions
• Developing and applying ICT and internet solutions
• Developing new individualised
hospitality experiences• Developing sustainableresorts and healthy menus • Developing and applying
ICT and internet solutions
• Developing sustainable resorts and healthy menus
Production/service
• Multi-skilling andflexibility• ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions• Intercultural competences
• Multiskilling and lexibility• ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions
• Language skills• Intercultural competences• Cooperation and team
spirit• Multiskilling and flexibility• Knowledge about health, nutrition, environment and
climate• ICT skills
• Multi-skilling and flexibility
• Knowledge about health, nutrition, environment and climate• ICT skills: using ICT and internet solutions
- a company in the Oxford Group -
Scenarios’ common skills needs
extended service skills Different lifestyles with increased focus on health, soundness and sustainability together with the increased expectation of high quality personalised services will require more knowledge and capabilities from the personnel in most of the scenarios;
social and (inter)cultural skills Also relates to the need for extended service skills, but includes cooperative ability, team spirit, self management, innovativeness, entrepreneurship, etc.;
skills within ICT and digitalisationIn all of the scenarios, the sector will experience the increased use of ICT and digital and online solutions in most parts of the work organisation.
financial managementincreased globalisation, competition, company concentration, and squeezed profit margins are all processes that contribute to making financial management more and more important within the Hotels and restaurants sector.
flexibility and multiskilling in all of the scenarios, increased employee flexibility will be relevant in terms of working hours and/or in relation to work tasks and employees qualifications, and
combinations of traditional hospitality skills with new specialised skillsThis is a trend prevalent in all of the scenarios, though the specific skill combinations vary. In general, most of the scenarios suggest an increase in new complex and highly interdisciplinary occupations and skills needs.
- a company in the Oxford Group -
DenmarkOxford Research A/SFalkoner Allé 20, 4. sal2000 Frederiksberg CDanmarkPhone: (+45) 33 69 13 69Fax: (+45) 33 69 13 33
www.oxfordresearch.dk
NorwayOxford Research ASKjøita 424630 KristiansandNorgePhone: (+47) 40 00 57 93
www.oxford.no
SwedenOxford Research ABBox 582201 25 MalmöSverigePhone: (+45) 33 69 13 69Fax: (+45) 33 69 13 33
www.oxfordresearch.se
