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Demand for Higher Education Programs
Results through June 2019
JANET SIEFFManager of Business [email protected]
Absolutely experiencedAbsolutely effective
Absolutely higher ed
ENROLLMENT DEVELOPMENT & MARKETING
DIGITAL & TRADITIONAL ADVERTISING
STAFF DEVELOPMENT & TRAINING
MARKET RESEARCH
WEB SERVICES
VIDEO
CAMPUS EVENTS
OVER 500 HIGHER ED CLIENTS We’ve driven college enrollment for over 30 years
THE MOST COMPREHENSIVE AND RESOURCE-RICH HIGHER EDUCATION MARKETING AGENCY IN THE COUNTRY
120+STRONG
Confidential 7
Data-Driven? Or Data-Informed?Most institutional decisions should be data-informed.
Data-DrivenAlgorithmically feasible, high volume:
e.g., Google keyword bidding
Data-InformedData and judgement needed,
low volume, high value: e.g., program selection, scholarship offers
Data-FreeUnimportant, low-cost, first try,
intuitively sensible
Academic Program Decisions
Confidential 8
Program Sustainability: An Integrated View
We envision four foundations of program sustainability.
StudentDemand Employment
DegreeFit
CompetitiveIntensity
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Who is Gray?
Program and MarketEvaluation Data
Employment
Placement Rates
Student Demand
DemographicsWages
Programs Price ProjectsPlace§ Program Evaluation System§ Program Economics Platform§ Integrated Program Analysis
§ Market Analysis Platform§ Location selection§ Campus consolidation
§ Price elasticity§ Price positioning§ Price optimization
§ Business strategy § Strategy implementation§ Complex analytics
Advanced AnalyticsPredictive Models
Geo-Analytics
Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Stakeholders
Competition
Employer Requirements
Gray Proprietary
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§ Inquiries- National- Online and On-Campus- Program, Degree, and City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands
§ Program of the Month: Mental Health Counseling§ Summary
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100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels
2017 2018 2019
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§ We started tracking inquiries in 2012 and Google search volumes in September 2016.§ In our webinars, we share data for the last three years.
Overall Student Inquiries (All Sources)Gray has tracked demand for several years.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National InquiriesAll Programs and Award Levels
2017 2018 2019
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Student Inquiries (All Sources)In June, inquiries rose 13% year-over-year, continuing an eight-month winning streak.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+ 13%YoY
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05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Total Inquiry ConversionsAll Programs and Award Levels
2017 2018 2019
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Student Inquiry Conversions (All Sources)
In the last “mature” month, March 2019, conversions declined year-over-year.
1. Conversions are counted in the month in which the inquiry is received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries are received.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-6%YoY
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Immature Months1
§ Conversions are now up 2% for February 2019.§ March 2019 might catch up with last year, if a few more inquiries convert.
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§ Price-per-inquiry decreased $2 from May.
Average Price for Pay-per-InquiryPrice-per-inquiry decreased 7% year-over-year in June.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2017 $45.38 $45.29 $45.50 $45.38 $45.52 $45.79 $45.23 $44.57 $45.09 $46.08 $45.92 $46.732018 $47.12 $46.56 $46.33 $47.41 $49.49 $49.25 $48.34 $50.31 $48.36 $47.60 $49.09 $47.552019 $48.02 $47.13 $43.74 $47.49 $48.00 $45.99 $- $- $- $- $- $-
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
Average Price per Inquiry for PPIAll Programs and Award Levels
2017 2018 2019
Note: PPI means “Pay per Inquiry.” Inquiry price is the average price per inquiry from PPI.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-7%YoY
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§ Inquiries- National- Online and On-Campus- Program, Degree, and City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands
§ Program of the Month: Mental Health Counseling§ Summary
Gray Proprietary
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Inquiries for Online ProgramsInquiries for online programs increased 6% in June.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries for Online ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2017 2018 2019
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
+6%YoY
§ Inquiries for online programs have increased year-over-year in each of the past 15 months.
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Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsIn June, inquiries for on-campus programs decreased 14%.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Inquiries for On-Campus ProgramsAll Programs and Award Levels
2017 2018 2019
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
-14% YoY
§ This ends the three-month run of 24% or more declines in on-campus inquiries.
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§ Inquiries- National- Online and On-Campus- Program, Degree, and City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands
§ Program of the Month: Mental Health Counseling§ Summary
Gray Proprietary
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§ Business Administration and Medical Assistant inquiries rose 24% or more year-over-year.
The Big 5 ProgramsInquiries for all five of the “Big 5” programs increased year-over-year in June.
27%24%
19%
13%
1%0%
10%
20%
30%
BusinessAdministration
Medical Assistant Criminal Justice Registered Nursing Medical OfficeAssistant
The Big 5 ProgramsSince 2012
Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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The Fast 5 Programs1
In June, three of the five fastest-growing programs were in healthcare fields.
1. Selected from the 75 programs with the highest inquiry volume since January 2012; excludes programs with <1,000 inquiries in prior year.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
115%
72% 62% 56% 49%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Computer SystemsNetworking and
Telecommunications
Mental HealthCounseling
HealthInformation/Medical
Records Admin.
HealthcareAdministration
Communication andMedia Studies
The Fast 5 ProgramsSince 2012
Year-over-Year Change in June Inquiries
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The Fast 5 Emerging Programs1
Volumes for the two fastest-growing programs more than quintupled in June, but off a low base in 2018.
1. Selected from the 75 programs with the highest inquiry volume since January 2012; excludes programs with <100 inquiries in prior year.
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
475167 291 205 186
3,150
1,161949
695 555
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500
Operations Mgmt.and Supervision
Applied Psychology Social Work Engineering Science Purchasing,Procurement, andContracts Mgmt.
The Fast 5 Emerging ProgramsTotal June Inquiries
2018 2019
2019 Requested Award Level
Bachelor’s: >99% Bachelor’s: >99% Master’s: 96% Bachelor’s: >99% Certificate: 75%Associate’s: 25%
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The Big 5 Cities1
Four of the Big 5 Cities continued to grow, but Philadelphia fell again.§ LA had strong inquiry growth in June for the past two years.
-3%
16%
2%
-7%
6%
19% 18%13% 12%
-7%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Houston, TX Los Angeles, CA Chicago, IL New York, NY Philadelphia, PA
The Big 5 CitiesYear-over-Year Change in June Inquiries
2018 YoY % Change 2019 YoY % Change
1: The largest five cities are determined by inquiry volume for a market definition of a 15-mile radius around the population center of the city’s CBSA.Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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Inquiry Volumes by Degree LevelInquiries at all award levels increased year-over-year in June.
0.4%
14%
24%
10%
10%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Undergraduate certificate
Associate's degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Doctor's degree
Change in InquiriesJune YoY
Source: GrayReports – Inquiry Trends, Gray’s Program Evaluation System
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§ Inquiries- National- Online and On-Campus- Program, Degree, and City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands
§ Program of the Month: Mental Health Counseling§ Summary
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§ Gray tracks search volume for the 200 largest higher-education programs. - We track approximately 20 keywords for each program.
Google Search Trends: ProgramsGray’s Google search index has risen every month for the past year, up 13% in June.
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches200 Largest Programs*
2017 2018 2019
*Google Searches for 25 keywords for each of the 200 largest programs based on IPEDS completions.
+13%YoY
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Google Search Trends: Shrinking Programs
In June 2019, Google searches declined the most for Occupational Therapist Assistant. Google searches continued to decline in several STEM programs; these were also among the fastest-declining programs in May.
-36%
-23%
-18%
-17%
-14%
-14%
-11%
-8%
-8%
-6%
-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
Occupational Therapist Assistant
Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General
Chemistry, General
Elementary Education and Teaching
Religion/Religious Studies
Bible/Biblical Studies
Physics, General
Journalism
Computer Programming/Programmer, General
Medical Administrative/Executive Assistant and Medical…
Fastest-Declining ProgramsJune Google Searches
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs. Minimum 10,000 monthly searches
Gray Proprietary
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Google Search Trends: Growing Programs
Vocational programs continue to make up a large portion of the fastest-growing programs’ list. Searches for electrician programs grew 70% year-over-year in June.
70%
53%
52%
52%
42%
37%
36%
35%
33%
31%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Electrician
Finance, General
Aesthetician/Esthetician and Skin Care Specialist
Nail Technician/Specialist and Manicurist
Child Development
Social Work
Dental Assisting/Assistant
Cosmetology/Cosmetologist, General
Medical Insurance Coding Specialist/Coder
Veterinary/Animal Health Technology/Technicianand Veterinary Assistant
Fastest-Growing ProgramsJune Google Searches
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for Largest 200 IPEDS Programs. Minimum 10,000 monthly searches
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§ Interest may be shifting from college brands to specific programs–and their related careers.
Google Search Trends: BrandsGray increased the number of brands we track from 75 to 350 institutions.
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Google Searches350 Brands
2017 2018 2019
Source: Gray Associates research, keyword search trends for 350 college and university brands.
-5%YoY
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Fastest-Growing BrandsSearches for “Oberlin College” grew from 40,020 in June 2018 to 234,920 in June 2019.
443%
147%
128%
123%
94%
87%
85%
79%
74%
67%
0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500%
Oberlin College
Indiana University
Vanderbilt University
Bellarmine University
Illinois State University
St John's University-New York
Hondros College of Nursing
Texas A & M University-College Station
Cincinnati State Technical andCommunity College
University of Maine
Fastest-Growing BrandsYear-over-Year Change in Google Searches
Source: Gray Associates Research, Keyword Search Trends for 350 Brands. Minimum 10,000 Google searches.
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§ Inquiries- National- Online and On-Campus- Program, Degree, and City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands
§ Program of the Month: Mental Health Counseling§ Summary
Confidential 31
Program Sustainability: An Integrated View
We envision four foundations of program sustainability.
Foundations of Program Sustainability
Program ScoringWe suggest using four categories of market data.
StudentDemand
Employment
DegreeFit
CompetitiveIntensity
Confidential 33
Program Markets: Program RankScoring on metrics in the four categories identifies potentially attractive programs.
National Program Scores and Ranking
Score
Confidential 34
§ Total volume for inquiries ranks in the 95th percentile.- This is an increase in volume of 53% from last year.
§ Total Google Search volume and Completions are in the 70th percentile.- Year-over-year unit changes are in the 95th percentile.
Program Scorecard: Student DemandStudent Demand volumes range from the 70th to the 95th percentiles.
Confidential 35
§ 21 institutions added programs from the prior year.§ Marketing metrics – average cost per inquiry, cost per click, and Google competitive index – are in
the top 5% of the least-expensive programs.§ 8% of institutions offer an online program, however those institutions produce 25% of completions.
Program Scorecard: Competition210 institutions offer Mental Health Counseling programs nationally.
Confidential 36
Program Scorecard: Employment The employment opportunities in Mental Health Counseling are growing.
§ Total job postings and current employment are in the 70th percentile.
§ Year-over-year percent growth in total employment is in the 90th
percentile.
Confidential 37
§ 52% of the workforce hold Master’s degrees.
Program Scorecard: Degree Fit93% of Mental Health Counselor national completions are at the Master’s level.
Confidential 38
Program Scorecard: Mental Health Counseling
Confidential 39
Market Analysis: Opportunity ScoresUsing a weighted scoring system to evaluate completions opportunity, CBSAs with the most potential for Mental Health Counseling programs are in California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Texas.
40Gray Proprietary
§ Inquiries- National- Online and On-Campus- Program, Degree, and City
§ Google Search Trends- Programs- Brands
§ Program of the Month: Mental Health Counseling§ Summary
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§ Total student inquiries were up 13% year-over-year.- Inquiries for online programs continue to rise.- Inquiries for on-campus programs continue to fall.
§ But, inquiry conversions declined slightly in May§ Inquiries increased at every degree level.
§ Google program search volume also rose 13%, but branded searches fell.
§ Inquiries rose 72% for Mental Health Counseling.- This follows a 169% increase year-over-year in May.
§ In 2017, 21 institutions had their first completions from Mental Health Counseling programs.- 18 of these programs were at the Master’s level.- All three year-over-year unit changes in Student Demand metrics are in the 95th percentile.- 25% of completions are in programs offered online.- Total employment is above average and growing, but wages are poor.- Unemployment rates are low.- Market completions opportunity scores are highest in California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Texas.
As always, good market data enables better program decisions.
Key Demand Trends and Observations
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Upcoming WebinarsOn August 8th, Gray will present its final Master Class on “Academic Program Assessment”. The topic will be how to integrate and sustain data-informed program decision-making.
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Webinar Topic Date
Master Class 6: Integrate and Sustain August 8, 2:00 pm ET
GrayReports: Monthly Demand Trends Webcast Featuring Study Portals
August 22, 2:00 pm ET