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Demographic Ageing of the Polish Society in Comparison with Other Countries Anna Blaczkowska Alicja Grzeskowiak Klaudia Przybysz Wroclaw University of Economics
Demographic Ageing of the
Polish Society in Comparison with
Other Countries
Anna Blaczkowska
Alicja Grzeskowiak
Klaudia Przybysz
Wroclaw University of Economics
Demographic Ageing As a Process
Demographic (Population) Aging - the
shift in the country’s population
distribution toward older ages
an increase in average or median age
a decline in the fraction of children
a rise in the fraction of the elderly
Demographic Ageing Factors
Direct factors:
fertility
mortality
migrations
Indirect factors:
wealth of the society
promoted model of family
womens` professional activity
social security and health care
education level
social policy of the state
Population Ageing – Main Implications
economic:
increase of GDP per capita is positively
correlated with the increase of population in
productive age and negatively correlated with
retirement age population
a statistically significant dependence between
the analysed demographic variables and
savings rate in GDP
participation of productive age population is
positively correlated with investment
participation in GDP
Population Ageing – Main Implications
social:
bigger expences on pension systems and helth
protection in countries with high rate of
retirement age population
medical:
the need of adjusting services and security for
the increasing number of population in
retirement age – the necessity of providing
sufficient health care in hospitals
Population Ageing – Main Implications
cultural:
increasing participation in social and cultural
life
political:
the change of electoral expectations, the
electoral campaigns orientated also on old-
age electorate
The Principal Aim of the Analysis
A comparison of the process of society
ageing in Poland with chosen countries
levels of ageing indicators
dynamics of ageing indicators
Data Sources
National Statistical Offices
World Population Ageing 1950-2050:
the report prepared by United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social
Affairs, Population Division
U.S. Census Bureau (International
DataBase)
Considered Countries
Brazil
Czech Republic
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Korea
Lithuania
Mexico
Morocco
Poland
Norway
United
Kingdom
Population Ageing Indicators
Suggested by UN Population Division
Ageing Index (number of persons 60+ per
hundred persons under 15)
Median age (age that divides population
into two groups of the same size)
Population Ageing Indicators
Suggested by UN Population Division
Total dependency ratio (number of
persons 0-14 plus number of persons 60+
per hundered persons 15-59)
Youth dependency ratio (number of
persons 0-14 per hundred persons 15-59)
Old-age dependency ratio (number of
persons 60+ per hundred persons 15-59)
Other Indicators Describing
Population Ageing
Youth Indicator (number of persons under
15 to total number of persons)
Old-Age Indicator (number of persons
65+ to total number of persons)
Bilateral Indicator (number of persons
65+ to number of persons under 15)
Ageing According to Median Age
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Germany
UK
Norway
Czech Rep
France
Hungary
Greece
Lithuania
Poland
Korea
Brazil
Mexico
Morocco
Median under 24 population demographically young
Median 25-29 population demographically ageing
Median 30-34 population demographically old
Median 35+ population demographically very old
Ageing According to Median Age
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Med
ian
Poland
Hungary
Lithuania
Norway
Czech Rep
UK
Greece
France
Germany
Mexico
Brazil
Korea
Morocco
Ageing According to Median Age
Chosen European Countries
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Media
n
Poland
Hungary
Lithuania
Norway
Czech Rep
UK
Greece
France
Germany
Ageing According to Ageing Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Czech Rep,
Hungary
Poland
Lithuania
Norway
UK
France
Germany
Mexico
Greece
Brazil
Morocco
Korea
Total Dependency Ratio
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Norway
UK
Greece
France
Germany
Lithuania
Korea
Morocco
Mexico
Brasil
Youth Dependency Ratio
0
20
40
60
80
100
120 Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Norway
UK
Greece
France
Germany
Lithuania
Korea
Morocco
Mexico
Brasil
Old-Age Dependency Ratio
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Norway
UK
Greece
France
Germany
Lithuania
Korea
Morocco
Mexico
Brasil
Youth Indicators
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Poland
Norw ay
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Greece
Czech Republic
Hungary
Lithuania
Mexico
Korea
Morocco
Brazil
Synthetic Measure on Youth Indicators
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
Morocco
Mexic
o
Brazil
Korea
Norw
ay
France
United
Kin
gdom
Pola
nd
Lithuania
Hungary
Greece
Czech
Republic
Germ
any
Synthetic
measure
Average
av.+ standard
dev.
av.-standard
dev.
Old-Age Indicators
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,01950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Poland
Norw ay
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Greece
Czech Republic
Hungary
Lithuania
Mexico
Korea
Morocco
Brazil
Econometric Modelling of Old-Age Indicators
Synthetic Measure on Old-Age Indicators
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
Germ
any
France
Greece
United
Kin
gdom
Norw
ay
Czech
Republic
Hungary
Lithuania
Pola
nd
Korea
Mexic
o
Brazil
Morocco
Synthetic
measure
Average
Av.+standard
dev.
Av.-standard
dev.
Bilateral Indicators
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
400,01950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Poland
Norway
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Greece
Czech Republic
Hungary
Lithuania
Mexico
Korea
Morocco
Brazil
Population Pyramids for Poland
Source: Population Division, DESA, UN
Big Cities in Poland
Warszawa
Krakow
Poznan
Lodz
Lublin
Gdansk
Wroclaw
Ageing Index for Big Cities in Poland
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Wroclaw
Krakow
Warszawa
Lodz
Poznan
Lublin
Gdansk
Median Age for Big Cities in Poland
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Wroclaw
Krakow
Warszawa
Lodz
Poznan
Lublin
Gdansk
Youth Indicators for Big Cities in Poland
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Warszawa
Gdansk
Krakow
Lublin
Lodz
Poznan
Wroclaw
Old-Age Indicators for Big Cities
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Warszawa
Gdansk
Lublin
Lodz
Poznan
Wroclaw
Synthetic Measure on Youth Indicators
and Old-Age Indicators
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
Lublin
Kra
kow
Gdansk
Poznan
Wro
cla
w
Wars
zaw
a
Łodz
Synthetic measure
Average
Bilateral Indicators for Big Cities in Poland
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Warszawa
Gdansk
Krakow
Lublin
Lodz
Poznan
Wroclaw
Population Ageing - Conclusions
a common phenomenon affecting almost all populations
different pace of changes in considered countries
acceleration in the twenty-first century in comparison with the last century
a persistent process, no turning points expected
profound implications for many aspcets of human life
demographic ageing in Poland moves forward relatively quickly
Thank You For Your Attention
