Desarrollo de los biocombustibles en los países de ALC y su relación
con la producción de alimentos.
Luiz A Horta Nogueira Consultor
VII Seminario Latinoamericano y del Caribe de Biocombustibles Guayaquil, Ecuador
Julio, 2015
Biofuels development in La2n American and Caribbean countries and its effect in food security
Outline
1. Bioenergy potential in LAC
2. The current status of bioenergy programs
3. Food and biofuels
4. Final remarks
3
This region presents excellent condi2ons to produce bioenergy.
About 360 Mha of land suitable for rainfed agriculture are available for expanding agriculture in LAC (FAO, 2012); 37% of global total and more than 3X the area required to meet future world food needs.
20% of this area, managed properly and using efficient processes (3 Mha/EJ) could produce annually 24 EJ of liquid biofuels, equivalent to 11 million bpd, more than current US or Saudi Arabia oil produc2on.
Bioenergy produc2on poten2al in La2n America and the Caribbean
4
Since the 80’s several LAC countries have promoted biofuels produc2on and use.
Several countries have introduced ethanol and biodiesel mandates: Argen2na, Brazil, Colombia, [Costa Rica], Ecuador, Honduras, Jamaica, [Panamá], Peru, and Uruguay.
Programs for bioelectricity and biogas produc2on have been also implemented.
Current status of biofuel programs in LAC
E5 in an Ecuadorian gas station
5
Several countries are producing liquid biofuels, in some cases for just for trading. The relevance of produc2on depends on the domes2c market.
Current status of biofuel programs in LAC
0%#
5%#
10%#
15%#
20%#
25%#
30%#
Argen-na# Colombia# Costa#Rica# Honduras# Nicaragua# Paraguay# Peru# Uruguay#
##Bioetanol#
##Biodiesel#
0"
500"
1.000"
1.500"
2.000"
2.500"
3.000"
Argen-na" Colombia" Costa"Rica" Honduras" Nicaragua" Paraguay" Peru" Uruguay"
M"liter/year"
Bioetanol"
Biodiesel"
Average blending level (from official data, 2012/2013)
Ethanol/ biodiesel production (from official data, 2012/2013)
6
The analysis of this issue is often hampered by ideological assumptions. After all, what is food security?
Food security depends on food availability and conditions to access, process and use properly. Detailed studies of price changes and its causes indicate that it is effectively reduced the impact of biofuels sustainable production on the availability and cost of food.
Biofuels actually can improve food security
From World Agriculture: Towards 2015-2030, FAO, 2004
Food and Biofuels
7
Obesity is currently a more serious problem than hunger in most countries.
Effectively there is no shortage of food, there is lack of access to food resources, due to limited resources of social groups in poverty. The growing food waste indicates the untapped surplus production.
The Lancet, Volume 378, Issue 9793, Pages 804 - 814, 27 August 2011
The global obesity pandemic: shaped by global drivers and local environments
Prof. Boyd A Swinburn MD a , Gary Sacks PhD a, Kevin D Hall PhD c, Prof Klim McPherson PhD d,
Prof Diane T Finegood PhD e, Marjory L Moodie DrPH b, Prof Steven L Gortmaker PhD.
Summary
The simultaneous increases in obesity in almost all countries seem to be driven
mainly by changes in the global food system, which is producing more processed,
affordable, and effectively marketed food than ever before. This passive
overconsumption of energy leading to obesity is a predictable outcome of market
economies predicated on consumption-based growth. The global food system
drivers interact with local environmental factors to create a wide variation in
obesity prevalence between populations…!
There is no lack of fuel, there are people not able to access food
Food and Biofuels
8
The expansion of sugarcane fields in Brazil has basically occurred in pastures associated with notable increase livestock productivity through improvement in feeding, cattle breeding and management techniques.
0"
50"
100"
150"
200"
250"
1970" 1975" 1980" 1985" 1990" 1995" 2000" 2005" 2010"
""pasture"area"(million"ha)"
""ca9le"heard"(million"head)"
Pasture area and cattle herd in Brazil (IBGE, 2012)
In the Brazilian case, ethanol produc2on is expanding mainly in pastures
Food and Biofuels
“El cambio climá,co y la competencia entre los productos agrícolas alimentarios y no alimentarios -‐como la bioenergía-‐ han hecho más complejos los problemas de la alimentación del futuro. Pero es importante no olvidar que los biocombus,bles surgieron con fuerza como fuente de energía alterna,va debido a la necesidad de mi,gar los gases producidos por los combus,bles fósiles y los de efecto invernadero, y esa necesidad no ha cambiado. Tenemos que pasar del debate de alimentos contra combus2bles a un debate sobre alimentos y combus2bles. No hay duda: los alimentos son lo primero, pero los biocombus,bles no deben ser vistos simplemente como una amenaza o como una solución mágica. Al igual que sucede con otras cosas, pueden ser buenos o malos”.
José Graziano da Silva, Director General de la FAO, en el Foro Global de Agricultura y Alimentación (Berlin, 2015)
La opinión de la FAO, Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Agricultura y Alimentación, sobre biocombus2bles
10
La2n America and the Caribbean present a large poten2al for biofuel produc2on
Food and Biofuels
Studies carried out by ECLAC, OLADE, BID, FAO and other international agencies have assessed and confirmed the technical and economic feasibility of producing biofuels and bioenergy in this region. Particularly for ethanol, the availability of molasses is a relevant upside.
!! Escenarios!Contexto'consolidado' Nuevas'fronteras'
Países!seleccionados! Hasta'4'millones'de'tonelada'de'caña'
Hasta'4'millones'de'tonelada'de'caña'
Productos! Azúcar,'etanol'y'electricidad' Azúcar,'etanol'y'electricidad'Expansión!de!caña!de!azúcar! No' Sí!Producción!de!etanol! Sólo'a'par?r'de'melaza' A'par?r'de'melaza'y'jugo'Area!de!pastaje!asignada!para!caña! 0%' 3%'Consumo!de!electricidad! 550'kWh/residencia.año' 550'kWh/residencia.año'Electricidad!excedente! 30'kWh/t'caña' 80'kWh/t'caña'Caldera! 42'kg' 65'kg'Porcentaje!de!caña!cul=vada!en!zona!de!pastos!u=lizada!para!la!producción!de!etanol!
No'hay'expansion' 50%'
Produc=vidad!de!etanol! 12'L/t'caña'(sólo'melaza)' 12'L/t'caña'(melaza)'+''80'L/t'caña'(jugo'directo)'
11
E20
E53
E55
E35
E196
E25
E16
E88
E149
E67
E19
E9
E163
E20
E67
E40
E3
E191
E405
E155
E51
E253
E34
E32
E101
E168
E98
E24
E31
E284
E40
E487
E150
E17
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
Argentina
Bolivia
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
República Dominicana
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Jamaica
México
Nicaragua
Panamá
Paraguay
Perú
Venezuela
106 Litros/año
Demanda de etanol - Escenario Contexto Consolidado Demanda de etanol - Escenario Nuevas Fronteras
§ Almost all countries would be able to replace more than 10% of the gasoline by using only molasses!
§ Guatemala and Colombia could even produce surplus ethanol by only using molasses!
§ A 20% blend would be able in all countries for NP Scenario, except Venezuela.
(2012/2013 data)
Poten2al for ethanol blending considering the current condi2ons of sugarcane agroindustry in LAC
12
112%
145%
75%
75%
102%
38%
44%
78%
118%
60%
41%
98%
55%
119%
43%
34%
13%
20%
19%
25%
36%
13%
13%
28%
43%
20%
15%
31%
16%
17%
9%
6%
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Argentina
Bolivia
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
República Dominicana
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Jamaica
Nicaragua
Panamá
Paraguay
Perú
Venezuela
GWh/año
Potencial eléctrico - Contexto Consolidado Potencial eléctrico - Nuevas Fronteras
Poten2al for bioelectricity produc2on from cogenera2on powered by sugarcane bagasse
13
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400 1.500 1.600 1.700 1.800
US$
/L
Million Liter
Gasoline price Ethanol from exportation sugar Ethanol from domestic sugar
Ethanol from exportation molasses
Ethanol from domestic molasses
3
4
1
2
3
4
2
1
Availability and Parity Costs for Ethanol from Sugarcane in Guatemala
(preliminary)
from M. Melgar, B. Villatoro, B. Brán
Land%Use%in%Guatemala%
Natural'Forests'37.3%'
Grasses%and%Shrubs%30.6%%
Annual%agriculture%12.5%%
Evergreen'Agriculture'
8%'
Others%4.6%%%@Waterbodies%@Infrastructure.%@Arid%zones%
''
Other%crops%4.6%%%
Sugarc
ane'2.5
%'
Modern bioenergy is expanding in La2n America and the Caribbean. The produc2on of biofuels is increasing, there are advances in the regulatory framework, new projects has been implemented, biofuel use is growing. However, there is s2ll a large room for grow and improvement. This desirable expansion should be kept under sustainability guidelines, which means to promote social welfare, to follow environmental legisla2on and its good prac2ces, and necessarily to adopt efficient agroindustrial processes, presen2ng high produc2vity and reduced use of natural resources, such as energy, land and water. Under these condi2ons, biofuels will be certainly a source of food security in this region.
Final remarks
16
Sugarcane Ethanol: Energy for Sustainable Development Available in English, Spanish, French and Portuguese, 300 pg, 2008 For download: www.sugarcanebioethanol.org
Contents 1. Bioenergy and biofuels 2. Ethanol as a vehicle fuel 3. Bioethanol production 4. Co-products of sugarcane bioethanol 5. Advanced technologies in the sugarcane
agro-industry 6. Sugarcane bioethanol in Brazil 7. Sustainability of sugarcane bioethanol:
the Brazilian experience 8. Perspectives for a global biofuel market 9. An outlook for bioethanol fuel
SCOPE Bioenergy & Sustainability is a collec2ve effort with contribu2ons from 137 researchers of 82 ins2tu2ons in 24 countries, discussing bioenergy sustainability across its whole lifeline and crosscuZng aspects including energy security, food security, environmental and climate security, sustainable development and innova2on. Launched in March 2015, available at: hep://bioenfapesp.org/scopebioenergy/
Bioenergy and Sustainability: bridging the gaps
18
Biofuels in Brazil: Evolution, achievements and perspectiveson food security
Luiz Augusto Horta Nogueira n, Rafael Silva CapazInstitute of Natural Resources, Federal University of Itajubá, Avenida BPS, 1303, CEP 37500-903 Itajubá, Minas Gerais, Brazil
a r t i c l e i n f o
Article history:Received 10 December 2012Accepted 29 April 2013
Keywords:BrazilEthanolBiodieselLand use
a b s t r a c t
Liquid biofuels, as ethanol and biodiesel, supply 25% of the road transport fuel consumed in Brazil.Ethanol blending has been mandatory since 1931, pure ethanol has been used since 1975, and nowadaysflex-fuel cars are widely used. In 2008, ethanol production reached 28 Mm³, but recently, governmentefforts to reduce gasoline prices have reduced the demand for ethanol. In turn, biodiesel blending waslaunched in 2005, and B5 has been mandatory since 2010. In 2011, the land dedicated to production ofthese biofuels in Brazil was of 8.82 Mha or 11.8% of total cultivated area, a considerable fraction of theland available, considering improvements in cattle breeding and agro-ecological zoning for bioenergy.Social development associated with biofuel programs has been relevant to food security. The Brazilianbiofuel programs demonstrate the relevance of adopting efficient agro-industrial routes and thepossibility of sound coexistence between bioenergy and other uses of agriculture.
& 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The volatility of world oil prices, the security of the energysupply and global climate change concerns are the main drivingforces in the search for alternatives to fossil fuels, which areresponsible for 80% of the global energy supply (IEA, 2011). Thetransport sector is supplied mostly by fossil fuels and liquidbiofuels. Ethanol produced from sugarcane, corn and other cerealsand biodiesel from oilseed crops represent approximately57.6 Mtoe or 2.4% of the fuel consumed by this sector (IEA, 2012).
Despite concerns about the impacts of bioenergy, global interestin transport biofuels is growing, and their production is expandingfaster than the production of conventional oil. According to the IEAAlternative Policy Scenario, biofuel production could reach approxi-mately 7% of the forecasted total for road transport fuels in 2030.Even with this huge increase in production, the participation ofbiofuels in agricultural production will continue to be relativelymodest; the arable land requirement for liquid biofuel production isestimated to increase from 14 Mha in 2004, or just 1% of the worldcultivated land, to 53.0 Mha in 2030, or 3.8% of the land used foragriculture, depending to a great extent on the feedstock mix to beeventually used (IEA, 2007).
In Brazil, about half of the total energy supplied comes fromrenewable sources, mainly hydroelectric power, sugarcane and wood(Fig. 1). Sugarcane bioenergy is important; in 2011, it accounted for15.7% of the national energy supply (42.8 Mtoe), slightly greater thanthe contribution of hydroelectric power (EPE, 2012). In the road
transport sector, the share of biofuels has been considerable: 25.1%in 2011 as ethanol (20.6 Mm³) and biodiesel (2.7 Mm³), as shown inFig. 2 (EPE, 2012). Ethanol is consumed by Brazilian cars as anhydrousethanol (less than 0.6% of water by mass) blended with gasoline (20–25% by volume) in conventional gasoline engines and as hydrousethanol (approximately 6% water), pure or in any blend with Braziliangasoline, in dedicated engines or flex fuel engines.
The expanding biofuels global market has raised concernsabout its effective sustainability. Some recurrent issues are thepotential impact of biofuels on food security and agriculturalcommodity prices, the effective reduction of greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions in the production chain, and the social andenvironmental impacts in terms of deforestation, monoculture,water resources depletion, and labor conditions. In this context,several studies have assessed the advantages of biofuels comparedto fossil fuel substitutes and have shown the great influence ofwhere and how the biofuel is produced and used (Msangi et al.,2006; Charlemann and Laurence, 2008; Escobar et al., 2009;Rosillo-Calle and Johnson, 2010).
The objective of this paper is to describe the evolution andgeneral characteristics of the Brazilian ethanol and biodieselprograms, stressing their nexus with food security. This reviewand analysis can help to better understand the impacts of thoseprograms and their potential benefits and limits.
2. Ethanol production and use in Brazil
2.1. Evolution of ethanol policies
Sugarcane has been cultivated in Brazil since the 16th centuryand, during the colonial period, it was extensively and successfully
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/gfs
Global Food Security
2211-9124/$ - see front matter & 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2013.04.001
n Corresponding author. Tel.: +55 35 3629 1442; fax: +55 35 3622 3596.E-mail address: [email protected] (L.A. Horta Nogueira).
Global Food Security 2 (2013) 117–125
L. A. Horta Nogueira Universidade Federal de Itajubá
Universidade Estadual de Campinas
Brasil
