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Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO June 4, 2015 | www.nscorp.com
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Page 1: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference

Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO June 4, 2015 | www.nscorp.com

Page 2: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Current Railway Volumes Second Quarter through Week 21 (May 30, 2015)

2nd Quarter Volume: Down 2%

1,213.0 1,191.7

2014 2015

Change in Units 2QTD 2015 vs. 2014

Intermodal

Chemicals

Automotive

Paper

Agriculture

MetCon

Coal

18,067/ 3%

10,953/ 15%

1,543/ 2%

1,107/ 2%

(3,332)/ (3%)

(7,401)/ (6%)

(42,160)/ (19%)

Page 3: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

1Q14 1Q15 2QTD14 2QTD15

Coal Volumes Through Week 21 (May 30, 2015)

Utility

Export

1Q14 1Q15 2QTD14 2QTD15

20% 30%

20%

6%

Page 4: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Fuel Surcharge Revenue

$295

$358 $368

$308

$163

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

($M) • WTI basis is down 50% in

2Q15 vs. 2Q14 ($51 vs. $101 per barrel)

• 1Q15 included favorable

$24M lag benefit

• 2Q15 unfavorable lag is expected

Further declines expected

Page 5: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Expense Headwinds

Service Recovery Costs Wage and Payroll Tax Increases Roanoke Relocation Expenses

Page 6: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Train Speed

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2014

Page 7: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Terminal Dwell

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 20

25

30

35

2015 2014

Page 8: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Composite Service Performance

83%

73% 75%

69%

63%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15

64%

Page 9: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Composite Service Performance

83%

73% 75%

69%

63%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2Q15

70%

6 percentage points

Page 10: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Business Outlook • Opportunities for highway conversions • Growth with strategic corridor projects • West Coast port disruptions • Growth of natural gas liquids • Crude oil shipments to East Coast refiners • Increased consumer spending • Strength in automotive production and sales • Improved construction activity • Growth in ethanol and soybean exports

• Softening steel production • Coal burn rate impacted by lower natural gas prices • High coal stockpiles • Strong competition in global coal markets

Page 11: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

34%

42%

24% 33%

50%

17%

2009 Volume 2014 Volume

Coal Intermodal Merchandise

Managing Shifting Traffic Mix

Page 12: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Opportunities for Growth

Energy

• Oil and natural gas • Coal continues in

the mix

Manufacturing • Cost of US manufacturing • FDI in the US

Highway Conversions • Road congestion • Driver availability • $700B in US trucking

revenues

Page 13: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

Guiding Principles

Deliver safe, reliable, efficient service Maximize incremental margin Reinvest in the core franchise Return funds to shareholders Advance shareholder interests

Page 14: Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference · 2020. 7. 8. · Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference . Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO .

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