Deutsche Bank Global Industrials & Basic Materials Conference
Deb Butler, EVP Planning and CIO June 4, 2015 | www.nscorp.com
Current Railway Volumes Second Quarter through Week 21 (May 30, 2015)
2nd Quarter Volume: Down 2%
1,213.0 1,191.7
2014 2015
Change in Units 2QTD 2015 vs. 2014
Intermodal
Chemicals
Automotive
Paper
Agriculture
MetCon
Coal
18,067/ 3%
10,953/ 15%
1,543/ 2%
1,107/ 2%
(3,332)/ (3%)
(7,401)/ (6%)
(42,160)/ (19%)
1Q14 1Q15 2QTD14 2QTD15
Coal Volumes Through Week 21 (May 30, 2015)
Utility
Export
1Q14 1Q15 2QTD14 2QTD15
20% 30%
20%
6%
Fuel Surcharge Revenue
$295
$358 $368
$308
$163
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
($M) • WTI basis is down 50% in
2Q15 vs. 2Q14 ($51 vs. $101 per barrel)
• 1Q15 included favorable
$24M lag benefit
• 2Q15 unfavorable lag is expected
Further declines expected
Expense Headwinds
Service Recovery Costs Wage and Payroll Tax Increases Roanoke Relocation Expenses
Train Speed
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015 2014
Terminal Dwell
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 20
25
30
35
2015 2014
Composite Service Performance
83%
73% 75%
69%
63%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15
64%
Composite Service Performance
83%
73% 75%
69%
63%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2Q15
70%
6 percentage points
Business Outlook • Opportunities for highway conversions • Growth with strategic corridor projects • West Coast port disruptions • Growth of natural gas liquids • Crude oil shipments to East Coast refiners • Increased consumer spending • Strength in automotive production and sales • Improved construction activity • Growth in ethanol and soybean exports
• Softening steel production • Coal burn rate impacted by lower natural gas prices • High coal stockpiles • Strong competition in global coal markets
34%
42%
24% 33%
50%
17%
2009 Volume 2014 Volume
Coal Intermodal Merchandise
Managing Shifting Traffic Mix
Opportunities for Growth
Energy
• Oil and natural gas • Coal continues in
the mix
Manufacturing • Cost of US manufacturing • FDI in the US
Highway Conversions • Road congestion • Driver availability • $700B in US trucking
revenues
Guiding Principles
Deliver safe, reliable, efficient service Maximize incremental margin Reinvest in the core franchise Return funds to shareholders Advance shareholder interests