Development in the SouthwestEnergy, Water, Land, and Sustainability Challenges
March 2010
Mike HightowerDistinguished Member of the Technical Staff
Sandia National Laboratories (505) 844-5499
Sandia is a multi-program laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
shortage sufficiency
• In 1990, poor water supply and sanitation was the 2nd leading cause of death and disability worldwide.
• In 1998, 25 million “water” refugees compared to 21 million war-related refugees .
• Over 50% of world’s major rivers are dry or heavily polluted.
• By 2025, 20% more fresh water will be needed for irrigation and 40% more for cities to maintain current per capita water levels.
1950
1995
2025“Water promises to be to the 21st century what oil was to the 20th century: the precious commodity that determines the wealth of nations.”
Fortune Magazine, May 15, 2000
CI_539b_10/31/00
Over half the world’s population will face severe water shortage in the next 50 years
Mid-latitude
Mid-latitude
Natural Resources Discussions – Often Narrowly Focused
Hydrogen Car Example:CH4 + 2H2O → 4H2 + CO2
Electric Car Example:
Electric Power Plant Major Location Selection Criteria
• A traditional thermoelectric power plant is located based on four major technical criteria:– Access to a fuel supply– Access to transmission capacity– Access to a water supply for cooling water– Airshed quality
• A renewable energy power plant is located based on similar technical criteria, plus:– Appropriate quality and appropriate areal extent of renewable or
distributed resource (wind, geothermal, solar, biomass, hydro) – Managing intermittency of the resource (mostly wind and solar concerns)
Growing Limitations on Fresh Surface and Ground Water Availability
• Little increase in surface water storage capacity since 1980
• Concerns over climate impacts on surface water supplies
• Many major ground water aquifers seeing reductions in water quality and yield
( Based on USGS WSP-2250 1984 and Alley 2007)
(Shannon 2007)
Most State Water Managers Expect Water Shortages Over The Next Decade Under Average Conditions
TX
CA
MT
AZ
ID
NV
NM
COIL
OR
UT
KS
WY
IANE
SD
MN
ND
OK
FL
WI
MO
AL
WA
GA
AR
LA
MI
IN
PA
NY
NC
MS
TN
KYVA
OH
SC
ME
WV
MI VTNH
MD
NJ
MACT
DE
RI
Legend
shortageStatewideRegionalLocalNoneNo response or uncertain
Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade
under Average Water Conditions
AK
HI
HI
HI
HI
HI
TX
CA
MT
AZ
ID
NV
NM
COIL
OR
UT
KS
WY
IANE
SD
MN
ND
OK
FL
WI
MO
AL
WA
GA
AR
LA
MI
IN
PA
NY
NC
MS
TN
KYVA
OH
SC
ME
WV
MI VTNH
MD
NJ
MACT
DE
RI
Legend
shortageStatewideRegionalLocalNoneNo response or uncertain
Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade
under Average Water Conditions
AK
HI
HI
HI
HI
HI
TX
CA
MT
AZ
ID
NV
NM
COIL
OR
UT
KS
WY
IANE
SD
MN
ND
OK
FL
WI
MO
AL
WA
GA
AR
LA
MI
IN
PA
NY
NC
MS
TN
KYVA
OH
SC
ME
WV
MI VTNH
MD
NJ
MACT
DE
RI
Legend
shortageStatewideRegionalLocalNoneNo response or uncertain
Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade
under Average Water Conditions
AK
HI
HI
HI
HI
HI
TX
CA
MT
AZ
ID
NV
NM
COIL
OR
UT
KS
WY
IANE
SD
MN
ND
OK
FL
WI
MO
AL
WA
GA
AR
LA
MI
IN
PA
NY
NC
MS
TN
KYVA
OH
SC
ME
WV
MI VTNH
MD
NJ
MACT
DE
RI
Legend
shortageStatewideRegionalLocalNoneNo response or uncertain
Survey ResponsesExtent of State Shortages Likely over the Next Decade
under Average Water Conditions
AK
HI
HI
HI
HI
HI
Source: GAO 2003
Southwest Climate History
10
12
14
16
18
20
Year
Avg. Precipitation
(inches)
• Most growth in water stressed regions
• Most new plants expected to use evaporative cooling
Growth in Thermoelectric Power Generation
Source: NETL, 2004
Projected Thermoelectric Increases(Capacity in 2025 vs 1995)
Utility-scale Solar Energy Resources
• Filtered data– Available, flat, no
environmental concerns, etc.
• Still tremendous resources at 6.75 kWh/m2/day– AZ 2.5 million MW– NM 1.9 million MW– CA 0.8 million MW– NV 0.7 million MW
• Significantly more resources at 6.0 kWh/m2/day
Utility-Scale Solar Opportunities and Needs
• Connected directly to transmission grid– Voltage > 69 kV– To date all PV systems are <69kV, though some are in planning– Kramer Junction Troughs are 115 kV
• As of August 2008 …– CSP
– 3,000 MW advanced stage of planning– 33,000 MW in CA ISO queue– 69,000 MW of applications to BLM
– PV– 11,000 MW in CA ISO queue– 21,000 MW of applications to BLM
• Expected CSP needs in the Southwest– 6,000-10,000 MW
Electric Power Generation Water Consumption
Plant-type Cooling Process
Water Use Intensity (gal/MWhe)Steam Condensinga Other Usesb
Withdrawal Consumption Consumption
Fossil/ biomass steam turbinec
Open-loop 20,000–50,000 ~200-300~30-90d,iClosed-loop 300–600 300–480
Dry 0 0
Nuclear steam turbinec
Open-loop 25,000–60,000 ~400~30dClosed-loop 500–1,100 400–720
Dry 0 0Natural Gas Combined-
Cyclec
Open-loop 7,500–20,000 10010eClosed-loop ~230 ~180
Dry 0 0Coal Integrated
Gasification Combined-
Cyclec
Closed-loop 200 170 150c,e
Dry 0 0 150c,e
Geothermal Steamf Closed-loop 2000 1350 NA
Concentrating Solarg,h
Closed-loop 900 900 10Dry 10 10 10
Wind and Solar Photovoltaicsj N/A 0 0 1-2
Carbon sequestration for fossil energy generation
Fossil or biomassk All ~90% increase in water withdrawal and consumption
Electric Power Generation Cooling Options
Condenser
Pump
Steam
Condensate
FreshwaterSupply
Blowdown
CoolingTower
WaterVapor
500-600 gal/MWh
~480 gal/MWh
Condenser
River
Steam
Condensate
20,000-50,000 gal/MWh
~300 gal/MWh
Increased River Evaporation
Once-Through Cooling Closed-Loop (Evaporative) Cooling
Dry-Cooled Power Plant
Dry and Hybrid Cooling Issues and Opportunities
• 90% Less water consumption
• 6 % loss in production
• 20% reduced capacity at hottest hours
• 10% increase in capital cost
• 1-2 ¢ /kWh increase in cost of power
Concentrating Solar Power Technology
Trough Towers Dishes
Steam Turbine Generator Stirling Engine-Alternator Dispatchable, Integrates with Storage High Efficiency, no Storage
• Most cost effective >250MW
• Operating temp: 400C• Annual efficiency:
14%
• Most cost effective >250 MW
• Operating temp: 560C
• Annual efficiency: 18%
• Modular 30 kW units – more flexibility in siting
• Operating temp: 800C
• Annual efficiency: 23%
Options to Address Renewable Generation Intermittency and
Capacity Factors
0 6 12 18 24
Solar Resource
CSP Generation w/ Storage
Hourly Load
Molten Salt Storage + Natural Gas Geographic Diversity of Energy Generation
Growing use of non-traditional water for cooling
Palo Verde – largest Nuclear Power Plant in the US, uses waste water for cooling
Growing Use of Non-traditional Water Resources
• Desal growing at 10% per year, waste water reuse at 15% per year• Reuse not accounted for in USGS assessments• Non-traditional water use is energy intensive
(Modified from Water Reuse 2007, EPA 2004, Mickley 2003)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Kw
h/m
^3
1 2 3 4 5Sea WaterRO
Today The Future
ConventionalTreatment
BrackishRO
BrackishNF
Power Requirements For Treating
(Einfeld 2007)
Non-traditional Water Resource Availability
Saline Aquifers Oil and Gas Produced Water
Electric Power Generation Land Requirements
Plant Type Plant Size(MWh)
Land Area(acres) Land Size Unuseable
Land SizeCapacity
Factor
Coal/ biomass or gasification w/ steam turbine
500 - 1000 MW 640 1 mi X 1mi All .95
Nuclear Steam 500 - 1000MW 640 1 mi x 1 mi All .95
Natural Gas Combined-Cycle 200 -500 MW 320 0.7 mi x 0.7 mi All .95
Geothermal Steam 200-500 MW 320 0.7 mi x 0.7 mi All .95
Concentrating Solar
500 MW 3000 2.2 mi x 2.2 mi All0.3 - 0.4
1000 MW 6000 2.8 mi x 2.8 mi All
Wind 500 MW 23000 6 mi x 6 mi 640 acres
0.3 - 0.41000 MW 46000 8.5 mi x 8.5 mi 1280 acres
Biomass and Water Use Impacts Will be Regional
Water Demand/Impact of Transportation Fuels
Gallons of Oil per Acre per Year
Corn 18Soybeans 48Safflower 83Sunflower 102Rapeseed 127Oil Palm 635Micro
Algae1000 -
7000• High biomass productivity potential• Oil feedstock for higher energy-content fuels• Can avoid competition with agricultural
lands and water for food & feed production• Can use non-fresh water, resulting in reduced
pressure on limited fresh water resources• Captures CO2 and recycles carbon for fuels and co-products
Land Needed for Biofuel to Replace 50% of Current Petroleum/Diesel using oil from: Corn Soybean Algae
Algae has potential advantages over corn, cellulosic materials, and other crops as an alternative to petroleum-based fuels
The Promise of Algae-Based Biofuels
Distribution of Non-Fresh Produced Water, Saline Aquifers, and CO2 Emitter Sources
Co-Location Opportunities for Algae Biofuels Production
Fire Frequency, Size, and Severity Are Increasing
Current trends show that the number, size, and severity of forest fires has grown significantly over the past two decades
Two sources contribute: forest management practices and climate change
Forest Management Contribution
Many small trees, high intensity fires
Few large trees, low intensity fires
• Past forest and fire management practices have contributed to increased fuel loads and fire severity.
• Future management practices must consider climate change impacts.
(Tree Diameter)
Climate Change ContributionsClimate change will compound already unhealthy forest conditions
Uncertainty is high, but potential consequences are severe
If trends continue, forest ecosystems in western states could be substantially reduced by 2030-2050.