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UPGRADE OF FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IN SLOVENIAGregers Jørgensen DHIJanez Polajnar, Nejc Pogačnik and Sašo Petan

Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia

For all water environments, from urban water, to marine water, to surface & ground water

© DHI

Gregers Jørgensen DHI

Presented by Stephen Blake DHI

Client / Project Partners

Nejc Pogačnik, Mojca Sušnik, Sašo Petan, Janez Polajnar,

Andrej Golob and Marjan Moderc

Meteorological and Environmental Services

Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (ARSO)

Early warning and forecast systems

© DHI

SloveniaThe user-friendly online forecasting

system provides decision makers

with an overview of the entire

system. The system is running

automatically, providing new 6-day-

forecasts at 74 locations in the river

network every hour 365 days a year.

With the new system we expect to reduce

costs caused by flooding by 20-30%.”

Janez Polajnar, Head, Flood Forecasting Department,

ARSO

Early warning and forecast systems

© DHI

Trained staff in the operation room

Status map in MIKE CUSTOMISED RealTime

Slovenia

Background

ARSO and DHI started cooperation in 2006 with the implemention of the Mura Project within the framework of the EU Interreg III B Cadses program for Alpine Space. Transboundary forecasting model for Mura.

An subsequent project began in 2009 for upgrade of the flood foracasting system for the Slovenian rivers Sava and Soča within the BOBER program with support from EU.

A second phase has been completed in 2015 that expands the flash flood forecast system to the entire country, and provides real-time floodmapping, forecast verification and visualization.

(Soča basin, Vipava River, September 2010 )

Project Setting

4 Geographic Units:

• Alps

• Dinaric Alps

• Pannonian Plain

• Mediterranean/Coastal

Complex geography

and hydro-meteorology

Project Location2 Major Basins Sava River Basin:

97,713 km2 in ex-Yugoslavia,

10,880 km2 in SloveniaSoca River Basin:

3,412 km2 in Slovenia/Italy

Flood characterization:

• Long duration flood periods

• Diverse flash flooding

• Lowland flowing

• Karst floods, and

• Urban floods

• Upper Soca Basin – among

wettest areas in Europe

Rainfall 1200 – 3500 mm / yr

(40 – 138 in /yr)

Slovenian Flood Damage Assessment

1994 -2008

B. Komac and M. Zorn, in D. Loczy et al, Geomorphological impacts of extreme weather: case

studies from central and eastern Europe, Springer Geography, 2013, pp 121-139.

• Extensive, country wide

flood risk and damages;

amount by some estimates

to 20% GNI

• Routinely experienced over

study period

• Extensive flooding in recent

years (inc. 2010 and 2014)

Challenge

• Upgrade of the existing services with new content and expanded to the Sava

and Soca river basins, with countrywide flash flooding and regional mapping

• How to get access to all real time information required

for a fast and efficient forecasting system, across national boundaries ?

• How to build a sustainable forecasting system ?

• Development of a User Friendly Decision

Support System

for flood forecasting

• Collaboration: Working together with

forecasters and forecast community

• Comprehensive training program of

ARSO Forecasting Personnel involved in

all aspects of the implementation

Solution• Integration with Online Databases

− Accessibilty of data across borders

− Telemetric data measured in the field

− Weather forecast – 17 case ensembles

− Forecasting results

• Development of Hydrological/Hydraulic

MIKE11 models for Sava and Soca rivers

• Development of a New Platform for ARSO

for real time operation

• Detailed real-time floodmapping and

countrywide flash flood warning

• Presentation and visualization of results

Value

• Improved and upgraded Flood Forecasting System

• Improved understanding of flood modelling and forecasting

• Consistent overview of watersheds/rivers combining measuring and modelling

• Open system platform enables further development, upgrade path and sustainability

• Provision to act faster before and during floods

• Earlier reactions on flooding -Saving property/life/money

Flood Watch • User friendly platform for real time

operation

• Fast access to forecast

• Automatic / Offline

• Graphical and Tabular view of Water Level, Discharge, Profiles and Precipitation

• Detailed station information with online access to data / RT camera

• Easy configuration

• Direct access to MIKE11

• Provision to view forecast presented via Google/GIS

• Provision to run alternative scenarios

Flood Forecasting and Early Warning UpgradeSecond Phase: Nov 2012 to Jan 2015

• Supplement and improve the elements and tools from the first

stage of the project (Upgrade to MC Real-time)

• Create a countrywide hydrological forecasting system

for flash flood forecasting

• Determine flood areas by means of a 2D

and a quasi 2D hydrodynamic model

• Presentation and visualization on web

• Forecast evaluation and verification

Comprehensive training programme

Expanded forecasting group: 4 persons -> 6 persons

Feature Additions

• Input temperature data distribute temperature into elevation zones -

depending of the availability of temperature stations and distribution of

temperature from meteorological models with various grid size

• The calibration of snowmelt improved during snow melt periods and

included in the flash flood model

− includes time series for both temperature and radiation.

• Automatic extraction of flood maps for a given time.

− Flood maps are extracted from the 2D-HD result file -> ESRI -> Oracle

− Visualized using a GIS WEB service

• Add features for uncertainty, ensemble, and forecast skill & verification

Flash Flood Warning Model

• 171 branches

• 227 sub catchments

• statistics 1, 3 6 hours rainfall events

and surface runoff

• The Flash Flood model has been

included in MIKE CUSTOMISED Real-

time, which will then be used to run

scenarios and for detailed visualization

• Results from the Flash Flood Model

are also stored in ORACLE for further

utility for subcatchment forecasts

Flood Mapping in real-time

• Quasi 2D methods used for larger systems

• Full 2-D mapping used in select locations

• Inflow from flash flood hydrologic forecast

use within these models.

Flood mapping in MIKE11

Flood map prepared with the Barje model during the flood at 22.10.2014.

• MIKE11

• Quasi 2D

• 5 min run

Operational Flood mapping

• MIKE FLOOD

• Full 2D coupled

• Coarse grid 20m

• 3 day forecast

• 90 min run

MIKE CUSTOMISED Real-time

Example: Animation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

© DHI

MIKE CUSTOMISED RealTime

Example: Flood Map Ljubljana - Provision to zoom to street level

© DHI


Example: Scenario simulation of alternative reservoir operation

© DHI

© DHI

DHI Platform for managing and operating flood forecasting and warning

Approach:

• Continuous data collection and real-time operation

• Numerical modelling with physical based model packages

• Decision and Information Management system: Open Architecture

• Goals: Provision of accurate forecasts and lead time

Targeted & feature-rich dissemination of forecasts

Efficient operation and forecast management

Open, Extendable Architecture

Slovenia Project for RT FFC: Technology Applied

Real-time Flood Forecasting with a IMS approach

© DHI

Extending the Platform: Model Forecast Evaluation Tools and Capabilities

Currently implemented:

Skills scores: automated, spatial mapping

Using R with MC Platform / HydroGOF

NCAR Toolset for Forecast Evaluation

Error model

Probabilistic Forecasting

DHI Platform for Real-time IMS and Model Management

Evaluation of Forecast System

- Forecast skill scores

• Assessment of the performance of the

forecast system

• Used for evaluating

o Overall confidence of the forecast system

o How the skill changes with forecast lead time

o Where we need to improve the forecast system

o Real-time detection of changes in skill

• A number of skill scores available

o Categorical (e.g. hits/false alarms)

o Goodness-of-fit measures (e.g. bias, RMSE)

o Scores for ensemble forecast (e.g. Brier score)

© DHI

Observed

Yes No

Fo

rec

as

ted Yes Hit False Alarm

No Miss Correct

Negative

Categorical skill assessment

of forecast of exceedance of

warning level

© DHI

Real Time River Flow Forecasting System, Sava River, Slovenia

© DHI

1

2

34

5

No

DA

DA

No DA

DA

No

DA

D

AMuthusamy

(2014)

© DHI

Extending the Platform: Model Forecast Evaluation Tools and Capabilities

Forecast Uncertainty Estimation – Probabilistic Forecasting

Currently implemented:

• Uncertainty post-processor

• Uncertainty pre-processor

• Hydro-meteorological ensemble prediction

• Weather generator

DHI Platform for Real-time IMS and Model Management

Hydro-meteorological Ensemble Prediction System

© DHI

MIKE CUSTOMISED REAL TIME

© DHI

Thank you for your interest

To learn more

Workshop for hands on introduction (offered May 31)

- materials, in-person intro, & webinars available

Visit the DHI booth this week

Stephen Blake [email protected]

Gregers Jørgensen [email protected]

www.dhigroup.com/MIKECUSTOMISEDbyDHI

[email protected]

© DHI

mailto:[email protected]


MIKE Platform - Real-Time Interface

Example: Easy Configuration and modification of setup

© DHI


Example: Publication – Flood warning generation to E-mail

© DHI


Example: Scenario simulation of alternative reservoir operation

© DHI

Models and Scenarios

Scripts

Spreadsheets

© DHI

Configuration User Interface

Time series

Data

base

Maps

(GIS)

Open architecture (API)

Add User tools

© DHI

Different users – Different views

Tailor made interfaces Data

base

Operator/Forecaster interface Platform Interface

Tool types

© DHI

Import tools

Import tools typically appears when the

database node, or a group node is selected.

When the tool is executed, entities are

imported to the selected group.

Export tools

Export tools typically appears when a group

or entities are selected. When the tool is

executed, the selected groups/entities are

exported.

Processing tools

Processing tools performs an operation on

the selected input, and produces new output

entities.

Tools with a user interface

Some tools have a user interface that starts

up when the tool is executed.

Job Manager - Workflows and scheduling

© DHI

Job Manager

A job is a sequence of the

operations that makes up the

application logic. An application

can consist of a single or

several jobs.

Jobs can be executed

manually, programatically or

scheduled.

When a Job is executed, the

execution log is stored in the

database.

Job

Log

Scripting

© DHI

Time

seriesGIS Spreadsheet Scenario System Indicator

Analysis

MCA/CBADocument Metadata

Scripting

Scripting

The script manager includes an Iron Python

programming environment, as well as

functionality to store and manage scripts.

It provides full access to all functionality in all

modules.

Best practices

It is possible to build the entire application in

a script. It is however recommended that the

Job Manager is used to define the application

workflows, and that scripts are used to

perform isolated tasks (that may executed

from the Job Manager)

The most common plug-in types

© DHI

5. Add your own toolstrips to existing

views (IToolstrip)

1. Add your own project tools to the

toolbox (ITool)

2. Add your own spreadsheet functions

(ISpreadsheetFunction)

Pop-up, or

tab

4. Add your own context

menu entries, and make

custom forms pop-up

(IVisualizer)

3. Create your own

job tasks.

7. Build User Interface

(IShellExtension + IDataView)

6. DataProviders

8. Model adapters

MIKE CUSTOMISED Real-time for operations:

Example: Sava – Status Map

© DHI


Example: Easy Configuration and modification of setup

© DHI


Example: Flood Map Ljubljana - Provision to zoom to street level

© DHI


Example: Animation of Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

© DHI


Example: Publication – Flood warning generation to E-mail

© DHI


Example: Scenario simulation of alternative reservoir operations

© DHI


Example: Dissemination of Flood Information to web/mobile

© DHI

Presentation of resultsPresentation via web

mapping used for

preparation of forecasts

and flood warnings

- Forecasts for the next 6

days

- Forecasting of Flow and

Water Levels at 74

locations

- New forecasts each

hour 365/24

- Forecast results from 5

different system setups

Quick Access for

Special Users

Public Presentation as

Hydrologic Alarm

Thank you for your interest

To learn more

Stephen Blake [email protected]

Gregers Jørgensen [email protected]

www.dhigroup.com/MIKECUSTOMISEDbyDHI

[email protected]

© DHI



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