Direct and indirect effects of climate
change on the livestock sector from an
economic and social perspective
UMR SELMET, 2015, coll.
A.Ickowicz, V.Alary, A.Aboul-Naga, J.Lasseur, P.Lecomte, C.Manoli,
M.A.Osma, I.Touré, A.Wane ….
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 1
Actually World animal production provides (FAO 2014):
26% of proteins consumption
13% of calories
1 billion poor people with livelihood
1.3 billion ‘jobs’
Contributes
14,5% of world GHG emissions
Accounts for
23 billion animals
1.4 trillion $
Uses
35% of crop production
30% of ice free land
Global sector view
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 2
Distribution of livestock systems
Source : Livestock Long Shadow, FAO-
LEAD 2006
Diversity of functions, services and systems
Descheemaeker et al. 2014 RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015
4
Roles of livestock in adaptation process
Livestock part of the NRM at the
regional level:
use of rangelands and marginal lands,
maintaining landscapes and increasing
ecosystems resilience (biodiversity, fire
hazards), natural resource management
(including water)
Livestock part of
household/community livelihoods:
significant contribution in food security and
livelihood improvement
Livestock: creation of links between
families, communities and regions through
transhumance and migration social capital
(protection, insurance, cement between the
cities and its hinterlands)
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 5
Effects of Climate Change on Livestock
Systems : Economic and social point of view
Direct effects
Productivity
Ressource availability
Ressource access
Indirect effects
Market prices
Conflicts
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 6
Exemples on case studies…
Egypt (ANR Elvulmed) : APRI / ARC;
SDCMR; Icarda
South of France (ANR Elvulmed, Climed)
Sahel (ANR Eclis): PPZS, ISRA, ILRI, CNRS,
IRD
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 7
Two case studies: PACA (Provence Alpes- Côte d’Azur, France) and
North Coastal zones (CZWD, Egypt)
Source: Bonnet, P., 2013, QGIS RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015
8
Main Global Changes in the Mediterranean
Context Doubling of the population
during the last 40 years in
the Mediterranean basin Urbanization in the coastal zones
and rural emigration
“hot spots” of climatic
change (Christensen et al., 2007)
high variability of
temperature and rainfall
109 108
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275
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402
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98 105 115
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nth
years
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 9
CZWD: CC within global changes and vulnerability
1. Climatic change
2. Demography Urbanization
3. Wadi development
4. Market change
5. Tourism and migration
employment, land pressure and
access,
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 10
Direct impacts : Strong reduction of flock size
Zones
No of
breeders a 2011 1995
Variation
of flock
1995-2011
Flock size
Rainfed (From Sidi Barani to
Debaa) 119 73 204 -64%
Newly reclaimed land (El
Hammam+ Borg el Arab) 29 153 162 -6%
Siwa oasis 28 43 62 -31%
Total 176 81 174 -53%
Sheep
Rainfed (From Sidi Barani to
Debaa) 117 91 168 -46%
Newly reclaimed land (El
Hammam+ Borg el Arab) 24 193 172 12%
Siwa oasis 20 28 46 -39%
Total 161 98 154 -36%
Goats
Rainfed (From Sidi Barani to
Debaa) 111 23 42 -45%
Newly reclaimed land (El
Hammam+ Borg el Arab) 20 20 31 -34%
Siwa oasis 19 26 42 -38%
Total 150 23 41 -43% 11
Direct impacts : Land Cover Change 8700 Hectares of vegetation cover have been lost due to
Drought
Vegetation
Bare soil Dry trees
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 12
Development of semi intensive poultry systems
Increase in the number of poultry production units between 2007 (1 farm)
and 2012 (54 farms) in the wadi of Naghamish (Matrouh Goverornate).
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 13
Vulnerable profiles in the rainfed zone
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
Family members
head education
rainfed area
wadi area
Ewe number
goat number
gov job
private job
occasional job
net income per capita
average
profile 1. Most vulnerable with very weak tribal links
profile 4. highly vulnerable with strong social tribal links
profile 2. Less vulnerable with only tribal links
profile 3. Least vulnerable with strong out and in-tribal links
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 14
Diversity of adaptation process according to capital
asset profiles
Clusters Major sources of risk How do households respond?
Most vulnerable (profile 1) Drought and access on pastureland (reduction of plants and shrubs)
Livestock mobility and animal transaction
Highly vulnerable (profile 4) Drought Economic or political instability
Diversification in cash crops (Fig and Olive) thanks to strong internal and external family bonds
Less vulnerable (profile 2) Drought Economic activity in Marsa Matrouh
Invest in education for diversification out of agriculture thanks to the proximity of the city Marsa Matrouh
Least vulnerable (profile 3) Drought Trading activities and business with Libya
Strong family bonds within the tribes 15
• Climate change induce more drought hazard
• In PACA region, livestock system respond through more mobility
toward mountain resources
• In 2000s, sheep owners developed:
• more regular summer transhumance (longer in dry
periods)
• Winter transhumance in plains for mountain production
systems due to decrease in forage production
France PACA : Enhance adaptation capacity
through governance mecanisms at local level
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 16
Transhumance patterns modification in Provence
Summer transhumance for « Basse Provence » herds
Winter and summer transhumance for « Alpin » herds 17
• Modification of livestock spatial density and land use which
need specific governance mecanisms
• Local debates on the appropriate mecanisms (private and/or
collective)
• Competition on spatial resources (tourism, crop,
conservation,…) which need local regulations (Ex: Plan
d’Occupation Pastoral organised by local collective
organisations (CERPAM).
Need for governance mecanisms
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 18
Sahel Case study : Possible scenarios
2°C scenario RCP2.6 4°C scenario RCP8.5
Floods or Droughts ???
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 19
Key Challenge for the Sahel Annual variations in the Sahel rainfall index between 1900 and 2010
Intra-annual
variation
20
Exacerbation of social tensions (1) Competition on
land and natural resources
Strong tension on land and resources with land tenure risks
Young people increasingly removing pastoral activities
Touré et al, 2013
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 21
Exacerbation of social tensions (2) Increased
mobility and conflict risks
Summary of recent national and transborder herd movements and
commercial cattle trade channels
Touré et al, 2013 RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 22
Campement
AMA016 WED172
WED207 WED13 TES007
TES095 TES071 TES048 TES045 AMA001 TES121 WED200 TES074
WED062
AMA031 AMA034
Activité E E+autrePonctuel
E+AutrePonctuel E E E E E E E+Autre E+Autre E+Autre E+ Autre
E+Autre
E+Autre+ agric
E+Autre+Agric
Comm. E E E E(tefo) E(dioula) E (dioula) E (dioula) E (Tab) E (Tab) E (Tab) E (dioula) E (dioula) E (dioula) E (Tab) E E
Nombre Gall 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 3 ou 4 3 ou 4
Nombre Foyr 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 1 ou 2 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 3 ou 4 1 ou 2? sup a 4 sup a 4
Pop Adulte P P P P P M M M G M G G G M G G
Effectifs PR P P P P M M G G G G G G M M P M
Eff. Bovins 0 0 < 20 < 20 21-50 51- > 51- > 51- > 51- > 51 -> 51- > 21-50 21-50 21-50 51- > < 20
Saloum non non non non non oui (fini!) oui oui non non partie partie non non partie non
Orga.Gestion Centr Centr. Centr. Centr. Centr. Coll. Centr. Centr. Centr. Centr. centr. Coll. Coll. Centr. Centr. Centr.
Entraide FP FP FP FP FP FP FP I I FP FP FP FP I FP ?
Small-holders focused on livestock activities.
Vulnerable
Diversified livestock keepers.
Least vulnerable
Small capital. Diversified Vulnerable
Small traders Technical livestock keepers
Large herd and family with external activities
Manoli, 2012
23
Exacerbation of market problems and shocks
low local market prices during crisis
effect on terms of trade
trade exchanges correlated to harvest and rainfall (in Mali in 2010, terms of trade equivalent to those of the worst year of the decade)
delayed transmission of rising food prices from international to local markets
lack of harmonized information on markets
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160 180 200
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2002-2003 (bad year) 2007-2008 (good year) 2009-2010
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 24
Exacerbation of regulation instability
(-) no shared vision
(-) disparities of legal texts, pastoral codes and regulation modes : conflicts
(-) weakness of law enforcement agencies
(+) progressive recognition of the role and function of pastoralism
(+) recognition of the need to harmonize regional legal texts
Touré et al, 2013 RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 25
Conclusions
Economical and social adaptation strategies of
livestock systems are diverse and dependant on
capital and context
Need to adapt a diversity of resources (animal,
forage, feed,….) to changing environment with
different pathways
Institutions and regulations have to adapt to new
situations and dynamics (mobility, land use,
markets, conflict resolution,…)
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 26
RECOLAD Workshop, Paris, 11-12 February 2015 27
THANKS
