CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT1
DISNEY (WALT) CO (DIS)
Risk
Probability of Default 0%
Average Credit Rating A
Accounting Quality Above Average
Momentum
6m 3m 1m
CFROI Revisions -0.23 0.00 0.05
Price Change % 11.85 11.42 1.36
Valuation
Price USD 56.36 downside
-11% Warranted Price 50.09
Dividend Yield 1.3%
Relative Wealth Chart
Current 20.9
Regional Industry 17.6
Low13.6
Median19.6
High24.3
Economic PE Ratio 5 year observed range
Summary Movies & Entertainment Market Cap: 101.448 USD
Media, US-Americas
CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT2
DISNEY (WALT) CO
Relative Wealth Chart Movies & Entertainment Price: 56.36 (Mar 6, 2013) Market Cap: 101.448 USD Warranted Price: 50.09 USD (-11%)
CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT3
DISNEY (WALT) CO
Sales, Margins & Turns Movies & Entertainment Price: 56.36 (Mar 6, 2013)
Market Cap: 101.448 USD Warranted Price: 50.09 USD (-11%)
CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT4
DISNEY (WALT) CO
HOLT Warranted Upside/Downside
Economic PE
HOLT Price to Book (Value Cost Ratio)
Valuation Movies & Entertainment Price: 56.36 (Mar 6, 2013)
Market Cap: 101.448 USD Warranted Price: 50.09 USD (-11%)
DISNEY (WALT) CO Media
HOLT Warranted Price
Price
DISNEY (WALT) CO Media
CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT5
DISNEY (WALT) CO
Valuation-Expectations Movies & Entertainment Price: 56.36 (Mar 6, 2013)
Market Cap: 101.448 USD Warranted Price: 50.09 USD (-11%)
Historical Expectations
Spread:Market Implied CFROI vs. T+1 Forecast CFROI
Market Implied CFROI
T+1 Forecast CFROI T+5 HOLT Forecast CFROI
CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT6
DISNEY (WALT) CO
Market vs HOLT Warranted Price
Warranted % Change
High 60.21 7
Best 50.09 -11
Low 43.22 -23
Statistics
Deviation 7% Very Good
Bias -18%
Valuation-Price Tracking Movies & Entertainment Price: 56.36 (Mar 6, 2013)
Market Cap: 101.448 USD Warranted Price: 50.09 USD (-11%)
CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT7
DISNEY (WALT) CO
4 Above Average 2 Below Average 5 Good 4 Above Average 3 Average
Accounting Quality
Risk Movies & Entertainment Price: 56.36 (Mar 6, 2013)
Market Cap: 101.448 USD Warranted Price: 50.09 USD (-11%)
Risk of Default
DISSector Peers
(Median)
Credit Peers
(Median)
Probability of Default(%) 0 4 0
Average Credit Rating A BB- A
5 Year CDS 26 224 54
Credit Metrics
DISSector Peers
(Median)
Credit Peers
(Median)
Traditional Leverage(%) 15 17 14
HOLT Leverage(%) 23 36 22
Interest Coverage FY1 8.4 3.1 9.1
HOLT Fixed Charge Ratio FY1 2.0 1.4 1.6
CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT8
DISNEY (WALT) CO
Price Momentum
18 mth 1 yr 6 mth 1 mth 1 wk
Absolute 70.46 30.62 11.85 1.36 1.99
Rel. To Peers -2.39 -5.58 -7.48 -0.92 0.25
EPS Estimates From 29 Estimates
2013 Growth % 2014 Growth %
High 3.66 15.5 4.12 12.6
Consensus 3.43 8.2 3.89 13.6
Low 3.37 6.3 3.70 9.8
CFROI Revisions
6 mth 3 mth 1 mth 1 wk
CFROI Revisions -0.23 0.00 0.05 0.00
As % of CFROI -1.90 0.00 0.42 0.00
Average of Peers -0.23 -0.15 -0.15 -0.02
Weekly Price (18 Month)
CFROI Revisions (18 Month)
Momentum Movies & Entertainment Price: 56.36 (Mar 6, 2013)
Market Cap: 101.448 USD Warranted Price: 50.09 USD (-11%)
Media, US-Americas
Media, US-Americas
Earnings Surprises
Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013
EPS Surprise 9.78 -1.45 2.60
Cash Flow Surprise
6.46 -0.86 1.61
1 Month CFROI Revisions 3 Month CFROI Revisions
CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT9
DISNEY (WALT) CO
Sensitivity Movies & Entertainment Price: 56.36 (Mar 6, 2013) Market Cap: 101.448 USD Warranted Price: 50.09 USD (-11%)
2010 2011 2012 t + 1 t + 5 t + 10
CFROI % 10.14 10.44 11.43 12.22 11.87 11.44
Real Asset Growth % 1.53 8.49 4.69 3.53 2.50 2.50
Discount Rate 4.91 6.08 5.49 5.02
CFROI & Asset Growth Inputs
Warranted Valuation Amount (MM) Per Share
+ PV Cash Flow Existing Assets 95,102 52.83
+ NPV Cash Flow Future Investments 29,773 16.54
+ Market Value Investments 2,440 1.36
Total Economic Value 127,315 70.73
- Market Value of Debt & Equivalents 31,945 17.75
- Market Value of Minority Interest 5,206 2.89
Warranted Equity Value 90,164 50.09
Shares Outstanding 1,800 downside
-11%
CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT10
DISNEY (WALT) CO
Estimator Movies & Entertainment Price: 56.36 (Mar 6, 2013) Market Cap: 101.448 USD Warranted Price: 50.09 USD (-11%)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Sales Growth % 3.39
EBITDA % 25.66
Asset Turns 0.56
CFROI % 11.43
Real Asset Growth % 4.69
Discount Rate 5.49 5.02
Sales, Margins & Turns Inputs
Warranted Valuation Amount (MM) Per Share
+ PV Cash Flow Existing Assets 95,102 52.83
+ NPV Cash Flow Future Investments 29,773 16.54
+ Market Value Investments 2,440 1.36
Total Economic Value 127,315 70.73
- Market Value of Debt & Equivalents 32,805 18.22
- Market Value of Minority Interest 5,206 2.89
Partial Year Adjustment 0 0
Warranted Equity Value 90,164 50.09
Shares Outstanding 1,800 downside
-11%
CLARITY IS CONFIDENCE HOLT11
DISNEY (WALT) CO
Burbank, CA 91521
818-560-1000
The Walt Disney Company operates as an entertainment company worldwide. Its Media Networks segment engages in broadcast television network,
television production and distribution, television stations, broadcast radio networks and
stations, and publishing and digital operations. This segment operates the ABC
Television Network and 8 owned television stations, the ESPN Radio Network and Radio Disney Network, and 35 owned and operated radio stations. It also
produces, licenses, and distributes live-action and animated television programming;
and operates ABC-, ESPN-, ABC Family-, and SOAPnet-branded Internet businesses. The
company's Parks and Resorts segment owns and operates the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida that includes theme parks; resort hotels; a retail,
dining, and entertainment complex; a sports complex; conference centers; campgrounds; water parks; and other recreational facilities, as well as the Disneyland Resort
in California. This segment also manages and markets the Disney Vacation Club, Disney Cruise Line, Adventures by Disney, and mixed-use Disney Resort and
Spa in Hawaii; manages Disneyland Paris and Hong Kong Disneyland Resort; and
licenses the operations of Tokyo Disneyland Resort. Its Studio Entertainment segment
produces and acquires live-action and animated motion pictures, direct-to-video content, musical recordings, and live stage plays. The company's
Consumer Products segment licenses trade names, characters, and visual and literary
properties to retailers, show promoters, and publishers; operates The Disney Store
and DisneyStore.com; publishes children's books and magazines, and comic books; and operates English language learning centers. Its Interactive
segment creates and delivers entertainment and lifestyle content across interactive media
platforms, including online, mobile, and video game consoles; and provides mobile
phone service and content to consumers. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.
Walt Disney Co (The.
500 South Buena Vista Street
Business Segment Sales Geographic Segment Sales
Company Description Movies & Entertainment Price: 56.36 (Mar 6, 2013)
Market Cap: 101.448 USD Warranted Price: 50.09 USD (-11%)