Dividend policy

Theories of investor preferencesSignaling effectsResidual modelDividend reinvestment plansStock dividends and stock splits Stock repurchases

When deciding how much cash to distribute to stockholders, financial managers must keep in mind that the firm’s objective is to maximize shareholder value.

Thus, the target payout ratio should be based on investor preferences for cash dividends or capital gains.

If the firm increases the payout ratio, D1 will increase, resulting in a higher stock price other things being equal.

However, if the firm increases D1, there will be less money available for reinvestment causing g to decline (remember g equals the retention ratio times ROE). If g falls, this will lower the stock price.

Therefore, when setting the optimal dividend policy the financial manager should strike a balance between current dividends and future growth so as to maximize the firm’s stock price.

What is “dividend policy”?

It’s the decision to pay out earnings versus retaining and reinvesting them. Includes these elements:1. High or low payout?2. Stable or irregular dividends?3. How frequent?4. Do we announce the policy?

Do investors prefer high or low payouts? There are three theories:

Dividends are irrelevant: Investors don’t care about payout.

Bird in the hand: Investors prefer a high payout.

Tax preference: Investors prefer a low payout, hence growth.

Dividend Irrelevance Theory

Modigliani-Miller support irrelevance.Investors are indifferent between dividends and

retention-generated capital gains. If the firm’s cash dividend is too big, you can

just take the excess cash received and use it to buy more of the firm’s stock. If the cash dividend is too small, you can just sell a little bit of your stock in the firm to get the cash flow you want.

Theory is based on unrealistic assumptions (no taxes or brokerage costs), hence may not be true. Need empirical test.

Bird-in-the-Hand Theory

Investors think dividends are less risky than potential future capital gains, hence they like dividends.

If so, investors would value high payout firms more highly, i.e., a high payout would result in a high P0.

Tax Preference Theory

Retained earnings lead to long-term capital gains, which are taxed at lower rates than dividends: 20% vs. up to 39.6%. Capital gains taxes are also deferred.

This could cause investors to prefer firms with low payouts, i.e., a high payout results in a low P0.

Implications of 3 Theories for Managers

Theory Implication

Irrelevance Any payout OK

Bird in the hand Set high payout

Tax preference Set low payout

But which, if any, is correct???

Possible Stock Price Effects

Stock Price ($)

Payout 50% 100%

40

30

20

10

Bird-in-Hand

Irrelevance

Tax preference

0

Possible Cost of Equity Effects

Cost of equity (%)

Payout 50% 100%

15

20

10

Tax Preference

Irrelevance

Bird-in-Hand

0

Which theory is most correct?

Empirical testing has not been able to determine which theory, if any, is correct.

Thus, managers use judgment when setting policy.

Analysis is used, but it must be applied with judgment.

What’s the “information content,” or “signaling,” hypothesis?

Managers hate to cut dividends, so won’t raise dividends unless they think raise is sustainable. So, investors view dividend increases as signals of management’s view of the future.

Therefore, a stock price increase at time of a dividend increase could reflect higher expectations for future dividends themselves, not to a change in the dividend payout policy.

What’s the “clientele effect”?

Different groups of investors, or clienteles, prefer different dividend policies.

The dividend clientele effect states that high-tax bracket investors (like individuals) prefer low dividend payouts and low tax bracket investors (like corporations and pension funds) prefer high dividend payouts. So different groups desire different levels of dividends.

Clientele effects impede changing dividend policy. Taxes & brokerage costs hurt investors who have to switch companies.

What’s the “residual dividend model”?

Find the retained earnings needed for the capital budget.

Pay out any leftover earnings (the residual) as dividends only if more earnings are available than are needed to support the optimal capital budget.

This policy minimizes flotation and equity signaling costs, hence minimizes the WACC.

Using the Residual Model to Calculate Dividends Paid

Dividends = – .Net

income

Targetequityratio

Totalcapitalbudget[ ]))((

Data for SSC

Capital budget: $800,000. Given.Target capital structure: 40% debt, 60%

equity. Want to maintain.Forecasted net income: $600,000.How much of the $600,000 should we

pay out as dividends?

Of the $800,000 capital budget, 0.6($800,000) = $480,000 must be equity to keep at target capital structure. [0.4($800,000) = $320,000 will be debt.]

With $600,000 of net income, the residual is $600,000 – $480,000 = $120,000 = dividends paid.

Payout ratio = $120,000/$600,000 = 0.20 = 20%.

How would a drop in NI to $400,000 affect the dividend? A rise to $800,000?

NI = $400,000: Need $480,000 of equity, so should retain the whole $400,000. Dividends = 0.

NI = $800,000: Dividends = $800,000 – $480,000 = $320,000. Payout = $320,000/$800,000 = 40%.

How would a change in investment opportunities affect dividend under the residual policy?

Fewer good investments would lead to smaller capital budget, hence to a higher dividend payout.More good investments would lead to a lower dividend payout.

Advantages and Disadvantages of the Residual Dividend PolicyAdvantages: Minimizes new stock issues and

flotation costs.Disadvantages: Results in variable dividends,

sends conflicting signals, increases risk, and doesn’t appeal to any specific clientele.

Conclusion: Consider residual policy to help set their long-run target payout ratios, but not as a guide to the payout in any one year.

Setting Dividend PolicyForecast capital needs over a planning

horizon, often 5 years.Set a target capital structure.Estimate annual equity needs.Set target payout based on the residual model.Generally, some dividend growth rate

emerges. Maintain target growth rate if possible, varying capital structure somewhat if necessary.

Dividend Payout Ratios forSelected IndustriesIndustry Payout ratioBanking 38.29Computer Software Services 13.70Drug 38.06Electric Utilities (Eastern U. S.) 67.09Internet n/aSemiconductors 24.91Steel 51.96Tobacco 55.00Water utilities 67.35*None of the internet companies included in the Value Line Investment Survey paid a dividend.

Stock Repurchases

Reasons for repurchases:As an alternative to distributing cash as

dividends.To dispose of one-time cash from an asset

sale.To make a large capital structure change.

Repurchases: Buying own stock back from stockholders.

Advantages of Repurchases

Stockholders can sell or not. With a cash dividend, stockholders must accept the payment and pay the taxes.

Helps avoid setting a high dividend that cannot be maintained.

Repurchased stock can be used in take-overs or resold to raise cash as needed.

Income received is capital gains rather than higher-taxed dividends.

Stockholders may take as a positive signal--management thinks stock is undervalued.

Disadvantages of Repurchases

IRS could impose penalties if repurchases were primarily to avoid taxes on dividends.

Selling stockholders may not be well informed, hence be treated unfairly.

Firm may have to bid up price to complete purchase, thus paying too much for its own stock.

Stock Dividends vs. Stock Splits

Stock dividend: Firm issues new shares in lieu of paying a cash dividend. If 10%, get 10 shares for each 100 shares owned.

Stock split: Firm increases the number of shares outstanding, say 2:1, but the price of each share will drop to half.

Both stock dividends and stock splits increase the number of shares outstanding, so “the pie is divided into smaller pieces.”

Unless the stock dividend or split conveys information, or is accompanied by another event like higher dividends, the stock price falls so as to keep each investor’s wealth unchanged.

But splits/stock dividends may get us to an “optimal price range.”

When should a firm consider splitting its stock?There’s a widespread belief that the optimal

price range for stocks is $20 to $80.

Stock splits can be used to keep the price in the optimal range.

Stock splits generally occur when management is confident, so are interpreted as positive signals.