Do Potential Studies Accurately Forecast What
is Possible in the Future?
Are we Mislabeling and Misusing them?
Presented at the ACEEE Energy Efficiency as a
Resource Conference
Little Rock, Arkansas
September 21, 2015
Philip Mosenthal
Optimal Energy
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Is This Really “Maximum Achievable”?
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2.76% (MA 2014)
3.40% (RI 2014)
1.30% (MA 2010)
1.67% (MA 2011)
2.07% (MA 2012)
2.34% (MA 2013)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
- 5 10 15 20 25
Ave
rage
An
nu
al S
avin
gs (
% o
f Sa
les)
Study Time Period (Years)
Electric Savings Maximum Achievable Potential (% of Sales)
Midwest Northeast South West Median MA 2014 RI 2014 MA
Sir Roger Bannister—May 6, 1954
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5
6
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Do Codes and Standards Eliminate Potential?
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Why are we Assuming Suboptimal Programs?
Recent Solar Forecasts—Chasing Reality
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Mosenthal & Loiter, National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies, U.S.
EPA, 2007
Is there an alternative?
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Mosenthal & Loiter, National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies, U.S.
EPA, 2007
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Mosenthal & Loiter, National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency: Guide for Conducting Energy Efficiency Potential Studies, U.S.
EPA, 2007
Pearl Harbor—December 7, 1941
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Optimal Energy, Inc.
10600 Route 116, Suite 3
Hinesburg, VT 05461
802-482-5607
Philip Mosenthal
