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At 12,000 YBP, 2/3rds of Canada was covered with ice. DOME C_TEMPERATURE VARIATION (deg C) 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Years Before Present -12 -8 -4 0 4 DOME C_TEMPERATURE VARIATION (deg C) -12 -8 -4 0 4 VOSTOK_TEMPERATURE VARIATION (deg C) 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Years Before Present -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 VOSTOK_TEMPERATURE VARIATION (deg C) VOSTOK TEMPERATURE vs. DOME C TEMPERATURE Temp: Age of Ice (using CDIAC, Jouzel, Petit, EPICA Dome C Ice Core data) G. Stewart, 2009 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Years Before Present -12 -8 -4 0 4 -12 -8 -4 0 4 TEMPERATURE VARIATION (deg C) HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE TYPE CURVE VOSTOK & DOME C AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (for Cycle 1) LAST 20,000 YEARS Temp: Age of Ice (using CDIAC, Jouzel, Petit, EPICA Dome C Ice Core data) G. Stewart, 2009 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 Years -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 TEMPERATURE VARIATION (deg C) PLEISTOCENE (CYCLE 2) TEMPERATURE TYPE CURVE VOSTOK & DOME C COMBINED AVERAGE TEMPERATURE Temp: Age of Ice (using CDIAC, Jouzel, Petit, EPICA Dome C Ice Core data) G. Stewart, 2009 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 -5000 -10000 -15000 -20000 -12 -8 -4 0 4 TEMPERATURE VARIATION (deg C) Cycle 2 Type Curve -12 -8 -4 0 4 TEMPERATURE VARIATION (deg C) Holocene HOLOCENE vs. PLEISTOCENE TEMPERATURE TYPE CURVES COMPARISON Dome C & VOSTOK ICE CORES (Temp Variation over Time) LAST 30,000 YEARS with Forward Projection Temp: Age of Ice (using EPICA, CDIAC, Jouzel, Petit data) G. Stewart, 2009 HOLOCENE TEMPERATURE COMPARISON VOSTOK & DOME C TEMPERATURE CURVES (for Cycle 1) LAST 20,000 YEARS Temp: Age of Ice (Using CDIAC, Jouzel, Petit, EPICA Dome C data) G. Stewart, 2009 3000 2000 1000 0 -1000 -2000 -3000 -2 -1 0 1 2 TEMPERATURE VARIATION (deg C) Cycle 2 Type Curve -2 -1 0 1 2 TEMPERATURE VARIATION (deg C) Holocene Are the “glory days” over? WE PROJECT TO APPROXIMATELY HERE ON THE GRAPH. 1. Dome C & Vostok Temperature Comparison (Last 400,000 Years) 3. Pleistocene and Holocene Type Curves T e m p e r a t u r e M a x i m u m ( + 5 . 4 d e g r e e s C ) TMax: 5.46 dC TMax: 3.62 dC Temp Rise: 0.65 dC/10yrs Temp Fall: -0.66 dC/10yrs Temp Rise: 0.11 dC/10yrs Temp Fall: -0.15 dC/10yrs Cycle 2 128,662 YBP Cycle 3 242,072 YBP Cycle 4 334,000 YBP Cycle 5 406,860 YBP Temp Rise: 0.74 dC/10yrs Temp Fall: -0.82 dC/10yrs Cycle 1 10,527 YBP 80% of Time Spent in Ice Ages 20% of Time Spent in “Warm” Ages Where is the 41,000 yr. 2nd Order Milankovitch Cycle? 1st Order Milankovitch Cycles I c e A g e T r a n s i t i o n I c e A g e T r a n s i t i o n I c e A g e T r a n s i t i o n I c e A g e T r a n s i t i o n I c e A g e T r a n s i t i o n Temp Rise: 0.07 dC/10yrs TMax: 3.15 dC TMax: 2.73 dC T e m p e r a t u r e M a x i m u m ( + 5 . 4 d e g r e e s C ) SEE ENLARGEMENT OF THE PLEISTOCENE CYCLE 2 BELOW These two Type Curves were hung on 0 degree temperature rise Vostok Temperature: Red Dome C Temperature: Blue The Holocene lacks a Temperature Max Spike DOME C & VOSTOK ICE CORE COMPARISON ? ?????? ???? ??????????? M EL ANGE INTERNA TIONAL,LL C 475 17th St., Suite 540 Denver, CO 80202 DOME C & VOSTOK ICE CORE COMPARISONS (Part 2) Gary Stewart, 2009 [email protected] For Denver Climate Study Group ftp://cdiac.ornl.gov/pub/trends/co2/vostok.icecore.co2 Jouzel, J., C. Lorius, J.R. Petit, C. Genthon, N.I. Barkov, V.M. Kotlyakov, and V.M. Petrov. 1987. Vostok ice core: a continuous isotope temperature record over the last climatic cycle (160,000 years). Nature 329:403-8. Jouzel, J., N.I. Barkov, J.M. Barnola, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, C. Genthon, V.M. Kotlyakov, V. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, J.R. Petit, D. Raynaud, G. Raisbeck, C. Ritz, T. Sowers, M. Stievenard, F. Yiou, and P. Yiou. 1993. Extending the Vostok ice-core record of palaeoclimate to the penultimate glacial period. Nature 364:407-12. Jouzel, J., C. Waelbroeck, B. Malaize, M. Bender, J.R. Petit, M. Stievenard, N.I. Barkov, J.M. Barnola, T. King, V.M. Kotlyakov, V. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, D. Raynaud, C. Ritz, and T. Sowers. 1996. Climatic interpretation of the recently extended Vostok ice records. Climate Dynamics 12:513-521. Petit, J.R., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N.I. Barkov, J.-M. Barnola, I. Basile, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, M. Davis, G. Delayque, M. Delmotte, V.M. Kotlyakov, M. Legrand, V.Y. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, L. Pepin, C. Ritz, E. Saltzman, and M. Stievenard. 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429-436. Please cite the following work when using these data:: Stewart, G.C., 2009 Denver Climate Group, Unpublished “Little Ice Age” 2. Dome C & Vostok Temperature Comparison (Last 20,000 Years) - The purpose of the Type Curve is to cancel “noise” and amplify true events; - Cycle 2 (Pleistocene) Temperature data from both the Dome C and Vostok Cores were re-sampled on a 10-year frequency, summed and averaged to create this “Type Curve”; - Since Temperature sample frequency decreased with time within each core, and the 1st Order Milankovitch Cycles varied in duration for the five 1st Order Cycles within each core, stacking data from Cycles 2 through 5 within the same core to create a Type Curve resulted in stacking data “out of phase” with each other. Therefore the identical cycle temperature data from each core were stacked together to create individual Cycle Type Curves shown here; - Original Temperature sample frequency for Cycle 2 in both cores ranged from 20 to 50 years 41,000 yr. 2nd Order? 41,000 yr. 2nd Order? Where is the Holocene Temperature Maximum spike? SUMMED & AVERAGED - The Holocene Type Curve constructed from the Vostok and Dome C cores lacks a Temperature Maximum spike; - The Holocene Temperature has hovered within one degree C of the transition to an ice age; - A small 1 degree C Temperature dip threw part of the world into the “Little IceAge”; - The Temperature Maximum from the Dome C prior cycles is a full 5 degrees C warmer than the Holocene average; - Temperature Sample Frequency for Cycle 1 ranges from 10 to 20 years 4. FUTURE PREDICTION AND CLIMATE MODELS (ENLARGEMENT) CONCLUSIONS: 1. The 10,000 years of the Holocene temperature “glory days” may be drawing to a close; 2. The 1st Order Milankovitch Cycle appears to be the dominate factor with global temperatures and overwhelms any CO2 warming effects (below 300 ppmv); 3. The 1st Order Milankovitch Cycle must be understood and included in any forward-looking climate prediction models; 4. In the event the world has already started falling into the next ice age cycle, the rate of temperature rise measured since 1980 may be actually higher; 5. A 4 to 5 degree C temperature rise apparently does not create a catastrophic global warming, and apparently does not significantly release gas hydrates; 6. The rate of historic temperature rise (measured in the Dome C core) is more than triple the rate of temperature rise experienced during the last two decades; 7. Currently the Earth teeters on the brink of entering the next ice age and we must be extremely cautious to embrace geoengineering at this point. 8. Temperature either rises or falls. Those are your only two choices. If one does not like those choices, one needs to find another planet to live on. NOTE: Assuming the four temperature maximums are related to the 1st Order 100,000 year Milankovitch cycles, CO2 had little effect in maintaining the high temperatures. As seen in Cycle 4, even though CO2 levels were at maximum 299 ppmv CO2 (Vostok), temperature did not continue to increase, but actually made a abrupt reversal. It therefore appears that the mechanical temperature rise & fall associated with 1st order Milankovitch cycles appear to overwhelm any warming effect associated with CO2, for CO2 levels below 299 ppmv; Cyc le 2 Tempe ratur e Type Curve Holocene Temperature Type Curve Cycl e 2 Te mper a ture Type Curv e Years in the Future Years Before Present Years in the Future Years Before Present http://www.youtube.com/user/KoshlandSciMuseum#p/a/u/2/GoVPRJbvg1w LOCATION MAP Industrial Revolution Stone Age Bronze Age Columbus Discovers America “Little Ice Age” Check out how much closer we are to the Ice Age Transition vs. Temperature Max SEE ENLARGEMENT Industrial Revolution Stone Age Bronze Age Columbus Discovers America “Little Ice Age”
