Prepared For:
Farmington Downtown Development Authority
Prepared By:
Gibbs Planning Group
Interim Summary Draft
04 April 2020
Retail Market Analysis
City of Farmington, Michigan
Downtown
Interim Draft
INTRODUCTION
Figure 1: Aerial photo of downtown Farmington looking northwest (Source: Google Maps) .
Executive Summary
This interim draft study finds that downtown Farmington can presently (pre-recession) support up
to an additional 144,500 square feet (sf) of retail and restaurant development which could
generate as much as $50.5 million in sales by 2025. If achieved, this growth could include new
retail stores totaling 102,800 sf and new restaurants totaling 41,700 sf. This growth could be
absorbed by 40-50 new retail businesses and 10-15 new restaurants, or by existing stores through
expanded operations and marketing. If managed per industry best practices, these new stores
could generate above average sales of $343 per square foot per year.
Given a wider selection of retail destinations downtown, it is plausible that a larger proportion of
residents in the surrounding neighborhoods will choose to shop retailers in Farmington over
driving a considerable distance to other shopping areas. Furthermore, a critical mass of retail and
restaurant destinations could have broad appeal, which has the potential to attract patrons from
the greater Metro-Detroit region. The leading categories of supportable retail growth are
restaurants, general merchandise stores, grocery stores, hardware stores and apparel stores.
Given Farmington’s diverse demographics and shopping preferences, GPG finds that the
downtown should focus on moderate-to-moderate-upscale retailers and restaurants offering
popular brands or specialty goods and services with perceived value, as well as locally made
products. While many households living within the downtown’s trade areas will on occasion
purchase luxury brands, such retailers and restaurants should not be the primary focus of the
Farmington’s tenant mix.
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Figure 2: The shopping experience in downtown Farmington is a mix of walkable historic charm (left) and suburban
convenience (right).
Existing conditions in the downtown reflect a district caught between historic charm and suburban
convenience, which has limited the success of existing retailers. Recent investment into streetscape
and pedestrian infrastructure, and investment in the Farmington Farmers and Artisans Market and
other events at Riley Park have improved the appeal of downtown and positions several sites along
the primary shopping streets of Grand River Avenue and Farmington Road for infill or
redevelopment. A charismatic supply of historic buildings, a statewide-renewed interest in
placemaking, shifting consumer preference for local shopping in walkable downtowns and an
improving economy offer Farmington the potential to expand the scale of supportable retail to
include a broad range of retailers.
Figure 3: Downtown Farmington hosts many popular events such as the Harvest Moon Celebration. (Image Source:
(right) Farmington DDA).
The downtown Farmington primary trade area encompasses roughly 39 square miles. The primary
trade area includes 110,000 year-round residents and 46,600 households with an average income of
$96,000 per year. Many trade area residents are gainfully employed, and the average age is 42.6
years. Forty-six percent of the trade area’s residents have a four-year college degree and 49.5 percent
earn over $75,000 per year.
RETAIL & RESTAURANT DEMAND
See GPG’s supportable retail table, Figure 4. Note, these figures are in addition to existing businesses
and only reflect potential new demand. This study does not necessarily recommend that Farmington
pursue any or all of this forecast commercial demand.
Interim Draft
Figure 4: Supportable Retail Table 2020
Figure 4: Estimated additional retail and restaurant demand for downtown Farmington. GPG estimates that downtown
Farmington is able to support up to 102,800 sf of additional retail space and 41,700 sf of additional restaurant space
totaling 144,500 sf. Note: Sales stated in constant 2020 dollars.
LIFESTYLE TAPESTRY DEMOGRAPHICS
As a part of this analysis, GPG has purchased third-party demographic research prepared by ESRI.
The ESRI data includes tapestry lifestyles, which creates 65 classifications, or lifestyle segments,
that help determine purchasing patterns. These segments are broken down to the U.S. Census Block
Group level and used by many national retailers to help determine future potential locations. The
most prevalent ESRI lifestyle groups in the primary trade area are Savvy Suburbanites, Comfortable
Empty Nesters, Rustbelt Traditions, Traditional Living and Enterprising Professionals.
The top five Tapestry Lifestyle groups profiled above portray a mix of singles and older couples who
prefer a suburban lifestyle and investing in their homes. Overall, there is a preference for American-
made goods and local shopping. Downtown Farmington could improve the capture of retail
6 Downtown Farmington Retail Market Study Summary Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.
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expenditure from these households with further restaurant and entertainment development as well as
locally sourced or produced retail goods.
DEMOGRAPHICS
Figure 5: Farmington Demographic Comparisons
Demographic Characteristics Primary
Trade Area
Secondary
Trade Area
Metro
Detroit MSA
State of
Michigan
2020 Population 110,000 266,000 4,361,000 10,098,000
2025 Population 112,000 268,000 4,412,000 10,234,000
2020-25 Projected Annual Growth Rate 0.24% 0.16% 0.23% 0.27%
2020 Households 46,600 111,300 1,723,600 3,983,300
2025 Households 47,300 112,700 1,750,400 4,048,000
2020-2025 Projected Annual HH Growth Rate 0.31% 0.24% 0.31% 0.32%
Persons Per Household 2020 2.34 2.36 2.50 2.48
Median Age 2020 42.6 44.3 40.9 40.4
2020 Median Household Income $74,000 $73,000 $60,000 $56,000
2020 Average Household Income $96,000 $98,000 $85,000 $78,000
2025 Median Household Income $84,000 $83,000 $69,000 $63,000
2025 Average Household Income $111,000 $113,000 $98,000 $90,000
% Households w. incomes $75,000+ 49.5% 49.1% 40.9% 37.3%
% Bachelor’s Degree or higher 46.1% 44.9% 31.8% 29.7%
Figure 5: This side-by-side table compares and contrasts the primary trade area demographic statistics with those of the
secondary trade area, MSA and State of Michigan.
Figure 6: Relative Proportions of the Primary Trade Area’s Tapestry Lifestyles
Figure 6: The relative proportions of the Tapestry Lifestyle segments found in the primary trade area.
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Figure 7: Farmington Primary Trade Area Tapestry Lifestyles
Lifestyle Group Farmington Primary
Trade Area Statistics Lifestyle Summary
Savvy Suburbanites
Population
15,300
Households
6,800
Median HH Income
$108,700
Farmington Households
15 %
US Market Share
3.0 %
Savvy Suburbanites neighborhoods are full of
wealthy, educated people. Many of them are
empty nesters or have adult children living at
home. 48.1 percent of this group consists of
college graduates while over 75 percent have
some college education. They have a low
unemployment rate and stay up to date with the
latest technology.
Members of this lifestyle use technology as
much as they can, whether for banking or
shopping. Many also like to be informed
shoppers and often do research before making
purchases. They are willing to spend a
premium to have healthy food and good wine.
Savvy Suburbanites employ others to take care
of housekeeping, though many maintain the
lawn themselves. They are also active investors
and try their best to remain physically fit.
Comfortable Empty
Nesters
Population
11,300
Households
5,400
Median HH Income
$75,000
Farmington Households
12.0 %
US Market Share
2.5 %
Residents in this large, growing segment are
older, with nearly half of all householders aged
55 or older; many still live in the suburbs
where they grew up. Most are professionals
working in government, health care, or
manufacturing. These Baby Boomers are
earning a comfortable living and benefitting
from years of prudent investing and saving.
Their net worth is well above average (Index
314).
Many are enjoying the transition from child
rearing to retirement. They value their health
and financial well-being.
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Rustbelt Traditions
Population
10,200
Households
5,300
Median HH Income
$51,800
Farmington Households
11.0 %
US Market Share
2.2 %
Members of the Rustbelt Traditions segment
are determined, white-collar workers with a
modest income – around $49,000 on average.
Many do skilled work in manufacturing, health
care, and retail trade. Their neighborhoods are
situated in metropolitan areas built in the
1950s, causing many households to have two
or more cars.
Rustbelt Traditions citizens are family-oriented
and enjoy spending time at home. They stick to
a budget and prefer to buy American-made
goods.
Traditional Living
Population
9,100
Households
4,700
Median HH Income
$39,300
Farmington Households
10.0 %
US Market Share
1.9 %
These residents are mostly young, married-
couple families or singles. They are new
householders and juggle the responsibilities of
new marriage while retaining youthful
interests. Their median household income
($39,300) and median net worth ($33,900) is
below average.
They shop for discount groceries at Walmart
supercenters and frequent convenience stores.
Enterprising
Professionals
Population
7,000
Households
3,700
Median HH Income
$86,600
Farmington Households
8.0 %
US Market Share
1.4 %
Enterprising Professionals are well educated
and are often involved in math and science-
related industries. The market is extremely fast
paced and fast growing, with many households
moving frequently. This segment is younger
and over half of all residents have a bachelor’s
degree. Over 50 percent have smart phones and
many work long hours in front of a computer.
They often buy the latest gadgets in hopes of
impressing their friends and shop in the most
convenient way possible – usually over the
internet. Enterprising Professionals make
many trips to the dry cleaners and prefer digital
books when reading.
Figure 7: The top five Tapestry Lifestyle groups profiled above portray a mix of singles and older couples who prefer a
suburban lifestyle and investing in their homes. Overall, there is a preference for American-made goods and local shopping.
Downtown Farmington could improve the capture of retail expenditure from these households with further restaurant and
entertainment development as well as locally sourced or produced retail goods.
Interim Draft
Retail Category Definitions
Retail categories in the Supportable Retail Table correspond to the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS), the standard used by Federal statistical agencies in classifying business
establishments for the purpose of collecting, analyzing, and publishing statistical data related to the U.S.
business economy. The following NAICS codes and definitions are provided by the U.S. Census Bureau:
Retail
Auto Supply Stores (4411): establishments known as automotive supply stores primarily
engaged in retailing new, used, and/or rebuilt automotive parts and accessories, automotive
supply stores that are primarily engaged in both retailing automotive parts and accessories and
repairing automobiles; establishments primarily engaged in retailing and installing automotive
accessories; and establishments primarily engaged in retailing new and/or used tires and tubes or
retailing new tires in combination with automotive repair services.
Furniture Stores (4421): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new furniture, such as
household furniture (e.g., baby furniture box springs and mattresses) and outdoor furniture; office
furniture (except those sold in combination with office supplies and equipment); and/or furniture
sold in combination with major appliances, home electronics, home furnishings and/or floor
coverings.
Home Furnishings Stores (4422): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new home
furnishings (except furniture).
Electronics and Appliance Stores (4431): establishments primarily engaged in retailing the
following new products: household-type appliances (refrigerator, dishwasher, oven), cameras,
computers/software, televisions and other electronic goods.
Hardware Stores (4441): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new building materials
and supplies (lumber, plumbing, electrical, tools, housewares, hardware, paint, and wallpaper).
Lawn and Garden Supply Stores (4442): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new
lawn and garden equipment and supplies. (Nursery, farm and garden products, outdoor power
equipment).
Grocery Stores (4451): establishments primarily engaged in retailing a general line of food
products (canned/frozen food, fruits and vegetables, meat, fish, poultry, milk, bread, eggs, soda).
Specialty Food Stores (4452): establishments primarily engaged in retailing specialized lines of
food (meat, fish/seafood, fruits/vegetables, baked goods, candy, nuts, confections, popcorn, ice
cream, items not made on the premises).
Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores (4453): establishments primarily engaged in retailing packaged
alcoholic beverages, such as ale, beer, wine and liquor.
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Health & Personal Care Stores (4461): establishments primarily engaged in retailing health and
personal care products (pharmacies/drug stores, first aid, beauty products, household supplies,
candy, prepackaged snacks, optical goods, vitamins/supplements).
Clothing stores (4481): men’s and boys’ clothing stores; women’s and girls’ clothing stores;
children’s and infants’ clothing stores; family clothing stores; clothing accessories stores.
Shoe Stores (4482): Shoes (men’s, women’s, child/infant, athletic).
Jewelry Stores (4483): Jewelry, luggage, and leather goods (silverware, watches, clocks,
handbags, briefcases, belts, gloves).
Sporting Goods Stores (4511): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new sporting goods
(fitness equipment, bikes, camping, uniforms and footwear).
Book & Music Stores (4512): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new books,
newspapers, magazines, and prerecorded audio and video media.
Department Stores (4521): establishments known as department stores primarily engaged in
retailing a wide range of the following new products with no one merchandise line
predominating: apparel; furniture; appliances and home furnishings; and selected additional
items, such as paint, hardware, toiletries, cosmetics, photographic equipment, jewelry, toys and
sporting goods. Merchandise lines are normally arranged in separate departments.
General Merchandise Stores (4529): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new goods in
general merchandise stores (except department stores) (warehouse clubs, supercenters, apparel,
auto parts, dry goods, hardware, groceries, housewares, no line predominating).
Florists (4531): establishments known as florists primarily engaged in retailing cut flowers, floral
arrangements, and potted plants purchased from others. These establishments usually prepare the
arrangements they sell.
Office Supplies & Gift Stores (4532): establishments primarily engaged in one or more of the
following: (1) retailing new stationery, school supplies, and office supplies; (2) retailing a
combination of new office equipment, furniture, and supplies; (3) retailing new office equipment,
furniture, and supplies in combination with retailing new computers; and (4) retailing new gifts,
novelty merchandise, souvenirs, greeting cards, seasonal and holiday decorations and curios.
Miscellaneous Retailers (4539): establishments primarily engaged in retailing new
miscellaneous specialty store merchandise (except motor vehicle and parts dealers; furniture and
home furnishings stores; consumer-type electronics and appliance stores; building material and
garden equipment and supplies dealers; food and beverage stores; health and personal care stores;
gasoline stations; clothing and clothing accessories stores; sporting goods, hobby, book, and
music stores; general merchandise stores; florists; office supplies, stationery, and gift stores; and
Interim Draft
used merchandise stores). Pet supplies, art dealers, manufactured home dealers, tobacco/cigar
stores,
Restaurants
Full-Service Restaurants (7221): establishments primarily engaged in providing food services to
patrons who order and are served while seated (i.e., waiter/waitress service) and pay after eating.
Establishments that provide these types of food services to patrons with any combination of other
services, such as carryout services are classified in this industry.
Limited-Service Restaurants (7222): establishments primarily engaged in providing food
services where patrons generally order or select items and pay before eating. Most establishments
do not have waiter/waitress service, but some provide limited service, such as cooking to order
(i.e., per special request), bringing food to seated customers, or providing off-site delivery
(cafeterias, snack/ juice bar, ice cream/soft serve shops, cookie shops, popcorn shops, donut
shops, coffee shops, bagel shops).
Special Food Services (7223): establishments primarily engaged in providing one of the
following food services (2) a location designated by the customer; or (3) from motorized
vehicles or non-motorized carts.
● Food Service Contractors: Establishments may be engaged in providing food services
at institutional, governmental, commercial, or industrial locations of others based
(cafeteria, restaurant, and fast food eating-place) on contractual arrangements with
these types of organizations for a specified period of time. Management staff is always
provided by the food services contractor.
● Caterers: providing single event-based food services. These establishments generally
have equipment and vehicles to transport meals and snacks to events and/or prepare
food at an off-premise site. Banquet halls with catering staff are included in this
industry. Examples of events catered by establishments in this industry are graduation
parties, wedding receptions, business or retirement luncheons and trade shows.
● Mobile Food Services: establishments primarily engaged in preparing and serving
meals and snacks for immediate consumption from motorized vehicles or non-
motorized carts. The establishment is the central location from which the caterer route
is serviced, not each vehicle, or cart. Included in this industry are establishments
primarily engaged in providing food services from vehicles, such as hot dog carts and
ice cream trucks.
Drinking Places (Alcoholic Beverages) (7224): establishments primarily engaged in preparing
and serving alcoholic beverages for immediate consumption (bars, taverns, nightclubs).
Shopping Center Definitions
This study utilizes the shopping centers typologies defined by the International Council of Shopping
Centers (ICSC) as follows:
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● Convenience Centers: Convenience centers are 30,000 sf or less, unanchored, and generally
will service a trade area of up to one mile. These centers include banking, carryout foods,
florists, mail centers, small restaurants, small food markets, and professional services such as
real estate and financial consulting. The centers typically include six to eight businesses.
● Neighborhood Centers: Neighborhood centers are anchored with a full-sized supermarket
and typically range from 60,000 to 100,000 sf. They service a trade area of two to three miles
and can include apparel, banks, carryout food, hardware, mail centers, restaurants, sporting
goods and professional services such as financial consulting and real estate.
● Community Centers: Community centers typically range from 150,000 to 300,000 sf and
are almost always anchored with a full-sized department store. They also include junior
anchor retailers selling books, crafts, shoes, and sporting goods. Community centers often
include large home improvement stores and medium-sized discount apparel stores. Their
service area is typically five to seven miles in suburban locations.
● Lifestyle Centers: Lifestyle centers average 150,000 to 200,000 sf and feature popular
apparel, book, and home furnishing stores, as well as cinemas and a wide selection of
themed restaurants. The centers are frequently planned as walkable areas with main streets.
Recently, lifestyle centers have included large anchors such as department stores, public
libraries, and supermarkets. These centers typically have a trade area of four to six miles
when developed in suburban settings. Lifestyle centers that include civic, employment, and
residential buildings along with the retail land use are defined as ‘town centers.’
● Regional Centers: Regional centers average trade areas of eight to 12 miles and are
anchored with multiple department stores. The centers can range from 800,000 to
1,500,000 sf, and often include cinemas along with 200,000 sf of national brand
fashion.
Limits of Draft Study
The findings of this study represent GPG’s best estimates for the amounts and types of retailers and
restaurants that may be reasonably supportable in downtown Farmington as of 04 April 2020. Every
reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this study reflect the most accurate
and timely information possible and are believed to be reliable. Information discussed by individuals and
in focus groups have not been independently verified by GPG.
This study is based on estimates, assumptions, and other information developed by GPG independent
research effort, general knowledge of the industry, and consultations with the client and its
representatives. This study is designed as objective third-party research and GPG does not recommend
that any or all of the supportable retail be developed in the study area.
Interim Draft
No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, its agent and representatives or in
any other data source used in preparing or presenting this study. This report is based on information that
was current as of 06 April 2020 and GPG has not undertaken any update of its research effort since such
date.
This report may contain prospective financial information, estimates, or opinions that represent GPG’s
view of reasonable expectations at a particular time, but such information, estimates, or opinions are not
offered as predictions or assurances that a particular level of income or profit will be achieved, that
particular events will occur, or that a particular price will be offered or accepted.
The actual amounts of supportable retail could be significantly higher or lower depending on multiple
market and not market factors including the type, design and quality of the new development. It is
plausible that a walkable town center, with well-designed buildings and public realm, could draw visitors
from beyond this study’s estimated trade area boundaries and considerably outperform the site’s location
and limited market potential. This would require an extraordinary development team and retailer mix
unique to the market, including anchor retailers. On the other hand, a poorly implemented commercial
center or badly managed businesses could underperform the location and the estimates of this study.
Actual results achieved during the period covered by our prospective financial analysis may vary from
those described in our report, and the variations may be material. Therefore, no warranty or representation
is made by GPG that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will be achieved. This
study should not be the sole basis for programming, planning, designing, financing, or development of
any commercial center.
GPG recommends the City update this study during the next 12 months to calibrate its findings to the
COCID-19 Pandemic and the pending economic downturn
END of DRAFT
14 Downtown Farmington Retail Market Study Summary Gibbs Planning Group, Inc.
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Appendix A1: Primary Trade Area Business Summary
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Appendix A2: Primary Trade Area Business Summary
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Appendix B1: Primary Trade Area Community Profile
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Appendix B2: Primary Trade Area Community Profile
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Appendix B3: Primary Trade Area Community Profile
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Appendix B4: Primary Trade Area Community Profile
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Appendix B5: Primary Trade Area Community Profile
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Appendix B6: Primary Trade Area Community Profile
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Appendix B7: Primary Trade Area Community Profile
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Appendix C1: Primary Trade Area Housing Profile
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Appendix C1: Primary Trade Area Housing Profile
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Appendix C1: Primary Trade Area Dominant Tapestry Descriptions