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An Integrated Transport System for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries
Mohamad K. Hasan
Associate Professor
Department of Quantitative Methods and Information Systems
College of Business Administration, Kuwait University
P.O. Box 5486, Safat, 13055, Kuwait
Fax: (965) 2483-9406Tel.: Work: + (965)2498-8453, Home: + (965) 2482-6500, Mobile: +
(965)9782-2073
Email: [email protected]
Safwat, K. N. A., & Hasan, M. K. (2004). Predicting International Freight Flows for Trade: Simultaneous Multimodal, Multicommodity, Network Equilibrium Model. Transportation Research Record 1882, pp. 129-139., TRB, National Research Council,
Washington, D.C.,USA.
Hasan, M. K. (2009). Multimodal, Multicommodity International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model. Telecommunication Systems, Volume 40, Numbers 1-2, pp. 39-54, Springer, USA.
Presentation OutlinesPresentation Outlines1. Problem Definition 1. Problem Definition
2. Integrated Transport System in Arab Mashreq (ITSAM)2. Integrated Transport System in Arab Mashreq (ITSAM)
3. International Freight Simultaneous Transportation 3. International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium ModelEquilibrium Model ( (IFSTEM ) IFSTEM )
4.4.Application to a PrototypeApplication to a Prototype
5.5.Conclusions and Future and Current Activities Conclusions and Future and Current Activities
6.6.Recent Implementation Recent Implementation of IFSTEMof IFSTEM
1- Problem Definition
The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) is one of five UN regional economic commissions in the world that was established in 1973.
ESCWA is made up of 13 member countries, namely: Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
The main objective of the ESCWA secretariat is to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of sustainable social and economic development processes in Western Asia by developing and strengthening regional cooperation and integration. One of the most important issues within this context is intraregional trade. Between 1990 and 1997 the intra-regional trade among the ESCWA countries was very low. Their export share fell from 10.9 to 8.6 percent of their total world exports and their import share rose from 9.1 to 10.4 percent of their total world imports.
Among the main reasons were complicated, costly and time consuming border controls and customs formalities In order to overcome these obstacles and to promote greater economic integration between its members, ESCWA developed an Integrated Transport System in the Arab Mashreq (ITSAM). ITSAM comprises three basic components:
• ITSAM-NETWORK, an integrated transport network • ITSAM-INFOSYS, an associated information system • ITSAM-FRAMEWORK, a methodological framework for
issue analysis and policy formulation This paper focuses on developing an International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model (IFSTEM) to predict equilibrium freight flow patterns (times and costs) that can describe the behaviour of exporters and importers of different commodities over an international multimodal network covering ESCWA member countries.
2. Integrated Transport System in Arab 2. Integrated Transport System in Arab Mashreq (ITSAM)Mashreq (ITSAM)
ITSAM-NETWORK, an integrated transport networkITSAM-NETWORK, an integrated transport network
ITSAM-INFOSYS, an associated information system ITSAM-INFOSYS, an associated information system
ITSAM-FRAMEWORK, a methodological framework ITSAM-FRAMEWORK, a methodological framework for issue analysis and policy formulationfor issue analysis and policy formulation
ITSAM-NETWORK an integrated transport network
Aqaba
Bab Al Hawa
Aleppo
Homs
Damascus
Amman
Ma'an
Tabuk
Qalibah
Medina
Rabigh
Mecca
Abha
Sana'a
Aden
Ta'izz
Al-Mukha
Hodeidah
Ad-Darb
Jeddah
Yanbu
Dhuba
Nuweiba
Suez
Zakho
Mosul
Baghdad
Amarah
Basrah
Kuwait
Abu Hadriyah
Dammam
Salwa
Bathaa
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Fujairah
Sohar
Muscat
Nizwa
Thumrayt
SalalahMukalla
Sulayyil
Sakakah
Deir Ez-Zor
Hasakah
Kamishli
BouKamal
Ramadi
Hadithah
Jerusalem
Tripoli
Beirut
Tartous
Lattakia
Gaza
Rafah
Arish
PortSaidAlexandria Damietta
Naqoura
Al- Shahid Basil Al- Asad
Kassab
Midan Ikbis
Tadmur
Rutbah
Ar'ar
Nasiriyah
UmmQasr
Jubail
DhahranManama
Doha
Sharjah
KhorFakkan
Al-Ayn
Hufuf
HaradAl-Kharj
Buraydah
NakhlShatt
Ismailia
VerdunBridge
KantaraBridge
Tanta
Cairo
Salum
Qena
Halaib
Mutt
WadiHalfa
Arqine
Luxor
AbuAjram
Yaaroubiyeh
Irbil
Khanaqin
Hafar El BatinHurghada
Safaga
Samaweh
Qua'im
Riyadh
King Khaled
King Abdul Aziz King Fahed
Saddam
Queen Alia
Bahrain
Seeb
Ayn Sukhna
Jeddah
Sultan Qabous
RashedJebel Ali
Zayed
Sulman
Shuwaikh
Shuaiba
Iraq-Iran Border
Iraq-Iran Border
Iran
Gulf
Red Sea
Sudan
MediterraneanSea
Lybia
Turkey N
S
EW
Legend
Main Road
Railways
Airport
Sea port
M05
M05
M05
M05
M05
M05
M05
M05
M05
M05
M05
M05
M07
M07
M09
M15
M15
M15
M25
M25
M25
M35
M35
M35
M35
M35
M45
M45
M45
M45
M45
M45
M45
M45
M45
M45
M45
M45
M45
M47
M55
M55
M55
M55
M55
M55
M55
M55
M55
M55
M55
M55
M55
M65
M65
M65
M65
M67
M67
M75
M75
M75
M10M10
M10M10
M10
M12
M55
M20M20
M30M30 M40M40M40
M40
M40
M40
M40
M40M40
M40M40M40
M50
M50
M50
M50M50
M50
M50M50
M60M60M60
M70
M70
M70M70
M80M80M80
M90M90
M90
M90
M90
M90
M90
M92
M100
M100M100
R05
R05
R05
R05
R05
R05
R05
R05
R05
R05
R05
R05
R05
R15
R15
R25
R25
R25
R25
R25
R25
R25
R25
R25
R25
R25
R25
R35
R35
R35
R10R10
R10
R10
R10
R10
R20R20
R30
R40
R40
R40
R40
R40
R50
R50R50R50
R50
R60R60
R70R70
R70
R72R72
R74
R80
R80
R80R80R80
Figure 1: Schematic Multimodal Network for ESCWA Countries Members
Traffic Flows
Activity System
Relationship 1
Main Variables and Relationships in the Methodological Framework
Transport System
Relationship 2
Relationship 3
ITSAM FRAMEWORK
Other operation borderoperations(I,Tin,Tot,RE)
IFSTEM
ShiplineCostf ()Timef ()
RailwayCostf ()Timef ()
Land BorderDocumentsProcedures
Costf ()Timef ()
Procedures
Cost
Time
Documents
Origin
Mode of Transport
Trip Distribution Flows
Destination
Demand-Performance EquilibriumModel
AirlineCostf ()Timef ()
RoadCostf ()Timef ()
SeaportDocumentsProcedures
Costf ()Timef ()
AirportDocumentsProcedures
Costf ()Timef ()
ZonesTrip DistributionSocio-economic
factors
Data Base Structure for the ITSAMFramework
Cost
Volume of Traffic Flow
Time
STEM OUTPUT
Maintenance cost
Operating cost
Upgrading cost
Planning cost
Management cost
R. C. M. OUTPUT
Users
CostTime
SafetyEase of Procedures(related to customs,
borders,trade)
Owners
Infrastructure-Finanacing
Infrastructure-ConditionsOperations
Traffic VolumeMaintenance Costs
Upgrading CostsCapital Costs
Operators
Operating costsMaintenance Costs
Capital CostsUpgrading CostsVehicle FinancingLevel of service
Regulators
SafetyEase of Procedures(related to customs,
borders,trade)
EnforcementEntities
Coordinators
Increase TradeEase of Procedures(related to customs,
borders,trade)Regional sustainable
developmentUnification of Specs.
and measures
Financers
Internal Rate ofReturn (IRR)
Benefit Cost Ratio(B/C)
Society
EnvironmentalImpacts
ResoucreConsumption
Model
SeaportsAirportsCustoms
Infra.RoadRailway
SecurityInfra.
Fleet/Containers
OUTPUTS
Management costPlanning cost
Construction costPurchase cost
Maintenance costOperating costUpgrading cost
ResoucreConsumption
Model
ResoucreConsumption
Model
ResoucreConsumption
Model
ResoucreConsumption
Model
ResoucreConsumption
Model
ResoucreConsumption
Model
Alternative Policy ScenarioResource Consumption
Alternative Policy ScenarioPerformance
Alternative Policy ScenarioInternational Fright Demand
International Passenger Demand
Evaluation / Selection
Policies options(the differentScenarios)
Outputs ofImpact Models
Selected Action PlanEvaluation Results
(in scores or weights) Implementation of ActionPlan and Follow up
A_Object_themes.dbf
OUID
A_Type
Objective_Description
A_Priority_Level
Objective_Name
A_Subject
A_Scope
A_Finance_Source
A_Finanace_Size
A_Followup_by
A_Implemented_by
A_Time_to_complete
A_Actions_projects.dbf
OUID
AUID
ActualOthers
........
A_Activities_tasks.dbf
AUID
ActualOthers
.......
TUID
Object_themes.dbf
Type
Objective_Description
OUID
Priority_Level
Objective_Name
Subject
Scope
Actions_projects.dbf
OUID
Finance_Source
Finanace_Size
Followup_by
Implemented_by
Time_to_complete
AUID
Type
Action_Description
Priority_Level
Action_Name
Subject
Scope
Finance_Source
Finanace_Size
Followup_by
Implemented_by
Time_to_complete
Activities_tasks.dbf
AUID
Type
Task_Description
Priority_Level
Task_Name
Subject
Scope
Finance_Source
Finanace_Size
Followup_by
Implemented_by
Time_to_complete
TUID
Action Plan
Items to be added tothe Data base
Items already exit inthe Data base
LEGEND
Airlink.dbf
Cost
Time
UFID
Route_Name
Type
Length
Airport.dbf
Const_Operation
Maint_Operations
Type
UFID
Maint_Standards
Const_Standards
Signs/Marks
Current_Develop
Proposed_Develop
Updating
Maint_Cost
Const_Cost
Devel_Manage_Cost
Financing_Size
Financing_Cost
Country
Seaport.dbf
Const_Operation
Maint_Operations
Shipping_Services
Packaging_Cargo
Cargo_handling
Type
UFID
Maint_Standards
Const_Standards
Signs/Marks
Current_Develop
Proposed_Develop
Updating
Maint_Cost
Const_Cost
Devel_Manage_Cost
Financing_Size
Financing_Cost
Country
Cntry_name
Ship_Delay_in
Ship_Movement
Prberth_sail_Delay
Cntry_Name
searoute.dbf
Cost
Time
UFID Name
Cap_Plane
Cap_Psngr
Psngr_Tot
Plane_Tot
Cargo_Out
Cargo_In
Operation
CmtdPrjNo
PandPrjNo
CmtdPdesc
PlandPdesc
Continent
Name
Local_name
ContBerth
PrtLength
Depth
TrmnlArea
Storage
ContArea
ContFlw86
Traffic
ContFlw92
ContFlw93
ContFlw94
ContFlw95
Operation
CmtdPrjNo
PandPrjNo
CmtdPdesc
PlandPdesc
Route_Name
Type
Length
Basin_Name
Pipe_link.dbf
Const_Operation
Maint_Operations
capacity
Diameter
Seg_Length
Util_Type
UFID
Maint_Standards
Const_Standards
Signs/Marks
Current_Develop
Proposed_Develop
Updating
Maint_Cost
Const_Cost
Devel_Manage_Cost
Financing_Size
Financing_Cost
Country
Cntry_name
Util_Name
CmtdPrjNo
PlandPrjNo
CmtdPdesc
PlandPdesc
Pipe_node.dbf
Country
Util_Cap
Type
UFID
RailLink.dbf
Type
UFID
Country
Cntry_name
Continent
Way_Flag
Rr_intldir
TrkType
TrkWidth
OF_Comdt_9
PF_Comdt_9
Net_tons
Gross_tons
Tons_Km
Psngr_Km
Const_Operation
Maint_Operations
Railway_Tracks
Railway_Lines
Railway_Gauges
Maint_Standards
Const_Standards
Signs/Marks
Current_Develop
Proposed_Develop
Updating
Maint_Cost
Const_Cost
Devel_Manage_Cost
Financing_Size
Financing_Cost
Overlay_Types
Speed_Limit
LinkLength
Anode
Bnode
Rr_ID
Rr_Company
Rr_intlnum
CmtdPrjNo
PandPrjNo
CmtdPdesc
PlandPdesc
Roadnode.dbf
CheckPoint
transfrPnt
BordrCrsng
City_town
ZoneCenter
UFID
WeighStn
Industrial
Intersectn
DelayPrvt
DelayTaxi
DelayTruck
DelayBus
DelayOther
Population
Zone_Char
Operation
Area_type
City_name
Country
Type
Nsb
RoadLink.dbf
Const_Operation
Maint_Operations
UnpavedR_CompType
PavedR_BasType
PavedR_SerType
Type
UFID
Maint_Standards
Const_Standards
Signs/Marks
Current_Develop
Proposed_Develop
Updating
Maint_Cost
Const_Cost
Devel_Manage_Cost
Financing_Size
Financing_Cost
Intlflag
Resealing_Type
Axle_Type
Speed_Limit
Length
Country
Cntry_name
Continent
Anode
LinkLength
Bnode
Way_Flag
Speed_Dsgn
Speed_Oprt
Capacity
Rd_Lane
Func_Class
Rd_IntClas
Rd_IntlNum
Rd_Intldir
Rd_Sectn
Rd_Name
Rd_Number
Rd_Length
Rd_Divid
Area_type
Isle_Width
ShldrWidth
PvmntWidth
Pvmnt_Type
Pvmnt_Cond
MxLoadSngl
GTW
MxLoadDual
CountStn
ADT_Total
ADT_Prvt
ADT_Taxi
ADT_Truck
ADT_Bus
OF_Comdt_0
PF_Comdt_0
PF_Comdt_1
OF_Comdt_1
OF_Comdt_2
PF_Comdt_2
OF_Comdt_9
PF_Comdt_9
CmtdPrjNo
PandPrjNo
CmtdPdesc
PlandPdesc
Railunion.dbf
Nonelect_e
Electric_n
Electric_e
TrkType
Rr_Company
Rr_ID
Nonelect_n
Length_tot
Steamengin
Dieselengin
Electengin
Seatingtot
Wagoncovrd
Uncovrdsid
Wagonflat
Tanks
Wagonconic
Wagonprivt
Wagontotal
Psngrtrn
Psngrtrnkm
Comdtykm
Trainkmtot
Psngrnum
Psngr_km
Luggagetion
Merchndton
Mrch_kmton
Railnode.dbf
Delay
Capacity
Stn_Name
Type
Country
UFID
Area_type
Operation
CmtdPrjNo
PandPrjNo
CmtdPdesc
PlandPdesc
Rr_Length
Rr_Name
Rr_Sectn
TainPsngr
TrainCargo
OF_Comdt_0
PF_Comdt_0
PF_Comdt_1
OF_Comdt_1
OF_Comdt_2
PF_Comdt_
Assist_Service.dbf
Road-UID
Rail-UID
Type
InfrastructurePDLR.dbf
Num_of_Signitures
Standard_Document
Procedures
Laws
Regulations
Country
Num_of_Docments
Procedure_num_steps
Docments
Agreement.dbf
Adoption_Date
Scope
Name
Type
Subject
Last_update
Num_Acceding_Count
Sponsor
Code
Agree_Count.dbf
Date_Acceded
Code
Doc_Complex_measure
Commencement_Date
Adoption_Place Commencement_Date
Law_Complex_measure
Reg_Complex_measure
Procd_Complex_measure
Type_Operation (E,I,..)
PDLR_ID
Mode_of_Transport
Country
Type_Operation
Agree_ID
Organization.dbf
Financing_Size
Financing_Source
Training_Programs
Name
Country
Org_structure
City
Plans
Production_Averages
Budgets
Responsibilities.dbf
code
Responsibility
code
Transport_Mode
Human_allocation
Soft_Hard_Ware
Type
Ownership
Transport_Type
Country
Type_Operation
Organ_ID
Country.dbf
Region
Continent
Country
Fao
Island_rank
Eec
Land_ocean
Stat_flag
Escwacntry
Escwacntry
Cntry_name
Ibrd
Ga
Iaea
Ga_memb_yr
Unesco
Imf
Sc
Opec
Cereals
Who
Escwa_flag
Wmo
Pulses
Tomatoes
Citrus
Olives
Potatoes
Industry2
Technology
Export.dbf
UID
Oper_type
Com_ID
Transp_entity
From
Mode
Pre_Export.dbf
UID
To
Mode
Oper_Type
Com_ID
Transp_entity
From
Transfer.dbf
UID
To
Cost
Oper_type
Trans_Type
From
Transferpoints
Cost
Zone.dbf
Continent
Income
Population
GNP
Transit_traffic
pop_year
Country
Cntry_name
UFID
PDLR/Agreements/Organizations
Demand Factors
To the Rest ofthe
Commodities
To the Rest ofthe
Commodities
OF_Comdt_0
PF_Comdt_0
PF_Comdt_1
OF_Comdt_1
OF_Comdt_2
PF_Comdt_2
OF_Comdt_9
PF_Comdt_9
To the Rest ofthe
Commodities
OF_Comdt_0
PF_Comdt_0
PF_Comdt_1
OF_Comdt_1
OF_Comdt_2
PF_Comdt_2
OF_Comdt_9
PF_Comdt_9
To the Rest ofthe
Commodities
10 O-DCommodity
Files
O_D_Comdt_0.dbf
Road
Origin
Destination
OD_ID
Air
Rail
Maritime
Obser_Volume
Pred_Volume
10 ZonalCommodity
Files
Zone_Comdt_0.dbf
Obser_Trips_to_destination
Obser_Trips_from_origin
Pred_Trips_from_origin
UID
Variable2
Pred_Trips_to_destination
Zonal_ID
Variable3
Variable4
Node_ID
CN_ID
UID
Node_ID
CN_ID
UID
Node_ID
CN_ID
UID
Node_ID
CN_ID
UID
From
To
From
To
From
To
From
To
CN_ID
Node_ID
UID
Consider
PDLR_ID
Agree_ID
Organ_ID
Dummy.dbf
UID
To
Oper_type
From
Borders/Ports/ZonesOperations
To
UID
Com_ID
Transp_entity
Mode
Other Zonal operationoperations(Pre_Import)
Fleet_Agrg.dbf
Purchase_Cost
Maint_Cost
Av%_time_Inoperation
technical_specs
Age(5-10yrs)
Type_of_Owner
Type
Updating
Management_Cost
Empty_wt
Loaded_wt
Age(<5yrs)
Class
Country
City
Fleet_unit.dbf
Purchase_Cost
Maint_Cost
%_time_Inoperation
technical_specs
Year_of_Production
OwnerShip
Type
Updating
Management_Cost
Empty_wt
Loaded_wt
Type_of_Owner
Class
Country
City
Age
Age(10-15yrs)
Age(>15yrs)
Size_of_Financing
Source_of_Financing
Cont_Agrg.dbfCont_unit.dbf
Storage_Cost
Operation_Cost
Purchase_Cost
Length
Type
Width
Height
Country
City
Rent_Cost
Ownership
Size_of_Financing
Source_of_Financing
Capacity
Storage_Cost
Operation_Cost
Purchase_Cost
Length
Type
Width
Total_Number
Country
Rent_Cost
Ownership
Size_of_Financing
Source_of_Financing
Capacity
Total_Number
Height
Data Base Group
Models
OUTPUT/Action Plan
Models Developed inthe Prototype
Transport Flows at Equilibrium
Cost at Equilibrium
Time at Equilibrium
Resource ConsumptionModel
Impact Models
Evaluation & Selection
Evaluation.dbf
Scenario_Score
Scenario_Description
Scenario_ID
Weights.dbf
Construction_Cost
Management_Cost
Planning_Cost
Purchase_cost
Upgrading_cost
Maintenance_cost
Operating_cost
Procedures
Cost
Documents
Scenario_ID
Time
Trade_flows
Mode
Oper_type
Com_ID
Transp_entity
Look Up table.dbf
UID
Time
Variable1
Variable2
Variable3
Variable1
Variable2
Variable3
Variable1
Variable2
Variable1
Variable2
IFSTEM RelatedText
ITSAM DATA BASE
3. IFSTEM ModelingNetwork Representation
Model Description and AssumptionsDelivery Cost (Price)Utility FunctionLink Cost FunctionsAccessibilityTrip GenerationTrip Distribution Modal Split and Trip AssignmentThe IFSTEM Model
Model SolutionAn Equivalent Optimization Problem
The Solution ProcedureThe Calibration ProcessComputer Program code
102101 200 201
Border LineCountry X Country Y
(a) Physical Road Network
101 102
10211
10214
200
20012
20013
201
road link
export
Transit-outroad link road link
(b) A possible directed ALO from country X to country Y
road link road link
import
Transit-in
13413411631
13414124 114 104
Air (sea) node
Rail nodeRoad node
transfer links
Export
Maritime (air) Links
transit-out
Sea (air) port node
Maritime (air) Links
Sea (Air) port
(c) A possible directed ALO from a seaport (airport) combined with possible node transfers
631 134
13412
13413
114
124transfer links
transit -in link
Import link
Road node
Railnode
Air (Sea)node
(d) A possible directed ALO to a seaport (airport) combined with possible node transfers
Sea (Air) port maritime
(air) links
104
Delivery cost (price)
rp
rp
rp
ri
rp
rrij TCTRALCPCtu
r = the value of time of the exporters of commodity r ,
rpt = the total time (sum of ALO and transport times) on a multimodal path
p from origin i to destination j for commodity r ,
riPC = the unit price of commodity r at origin i ,
rpALC =ALO (export, import, transit-in, transit-out, pre-export, pre-import and/or
transfer) costs on a multimodal path p from origin i to destination j for commodity r ,
rpTR = the tariff cost (at the origin, en route, and at the destination) on a
multimodal path p from origin i to destination j for commodity r
rpTC = the transportation cost on a multimodal path p from origin i to
destination j for commodity r .
Utility Function
ri j
ri j
ri j V
rj
rij
ri
rwjw
W
w
riw
rij
ri
rij AuAguV
)(
1
rij = the utility of exporting commodity r from origin i to destination j , r
ijV = the measured (observed) utility of exporting commodity r from origin i
to destination j , rij = the random (unobserved) utility of exporting commodity r from origin
i to destination j . rwjA = the value of the thw socio-economic variable that influences the number
of tons of commodity r imported at destination j ,
rwjw Ag = a given function specifying how the thw socio-economic variable r
wjA
influences the number of ton of commodity r imported at destination j , and
rjA = a composite measure of the effect that socio-economic variables
exogenous to the transport system have on the number of tons of commodity r imported at destination j .
Link Cost Functions The modal link cost function can be expressed as follows:
aFTCFtFC ra
ra
ra
ra
rra
ra links modal allfor )()()(
r
aF = the flow, in tons, of commodity r on link a,
)( ra
ra FC = the generalized cost per unit of flow of commodity r on link a , using
one of the feasible modes for raF ,
)( ra
ra Ft = a function representing the delay per unit of flow of commodity r , on
link a , using one of the feasible modes for raF ,
)( ra
ra FTC = a function representing the monetary cost per unit of flow of commodity
r , on link a , using one of the feasible modes for raF , and
r = the value of the time as perceived by the exporters of commodity r .
The operational link cost function can be expressed as follows:
ra
r
rr
EDIL ),(tariffc
),,(nsiginfccproctproc)(
rra
ri
ra
ri
k
rka
k
rka
rra
ra
FPC
FPCFC
rkatproc = the time taken to finish administrative procedure k of operation a for
commodity r ,
rkacproc = the administrative cost of procedure k of operation a for commodity r ,
rinfc = the informal cost as a function of the number of signatures, nsigr; the unit
price of commodity r at origin i , riPC ; and the flow r
aF ,
rtariffc = the tariff cost of commodity r as a function of the unit price of commodity
r at origin i , riPC , and the flow r
aF ,
raEDIL = the electronic data interchange (EDI) level of implementation used to
perform operation a for commodity r ; this level ranges from 0 to 5, with 0 representing full implementation of EDI and 5 representing no implementation of EDI, and
r = a parameter to be estimated that measures the cost of the limited
implementation of EDI for the export of commodity r .
Accessibility
The accessibility is defined as a composite measure of transportation system performance and socio –economic system attractiveness as perceived by a typical exporter of a given commodity from a given origin and it can be measured by the expected maximum utility to be obtained from a particular export choice situation.
rij
Dj
ri r
i
ES max
riS = the accessibility of exporter of commodity r at origin i .
E = the expectation operator
C r and I i )(V expln rrij
Dj
ri
riS
C r and I i } )( expln,0m ax{ r
Dj
ri
rj
rij
ri
ri AuS
):( r
irij
ri
ri DjuSS
Trip Generation The trip generation model assumed that the number of tons of a given commodity exported from a given
origin is a function of the socio-economic activities at that origin, the socio-economic characteristics of the exporter, and transport system performance.
)(1
rlil
L
l
rl
ri
rri EqSG
C r and I i r ri
ri
rri ESG
riG = the number of tons of commodity r exported from origin i ,
rliE = the value of the thl socio-economic variable that influences the number of tons of
commodity r exported from origin i , r
lil Eq = a given function specifying how the thl socio-economic variable, rliE , influences the
number of tons of commodity r exported from origin i
riE = a composite measure of the effect that the socio-economic variables, which are exogenous
to the transport system, have on the number of tons of commodity r exported from origin i .
):( ri
rij
ri
ri DjuGG
Trip Distribution The trip distribution model assumed that the probability that a typical
exporter at any given origin will choose to export a specific commodity to any given destination , accessible from that origin, is equal to the probability that the utility of exporting to that destination is equal to or greater than that of exporting to any other destination
Pr rij Probability rir
ikrij Dkvv ,
riDk
rik
rijr
ij
V
V
)exp(
)exp(Pr
Each importer will consider competitive alternative delivery costs for each commodity he wishes to import from different exporters at different origins, e.g., if an importer at destination j knows the average selling price of commodity r , r
jSP , and specifies a profit margin of rjMP , he will import
commodity r from an exporter at origin i as long as
0 criterionimport the rj
rij
rj MPuSPimc
Cr,
otherwise 0
0 if
)exp(
)exp(
r
Dk
rk
rik
ri
rj
rij
rir
irij Rij
imc
Au
AuG
Tri
):( r
irij
rij
rij DjuTT
Modal Split and Trip Assignment It is assumed that each exporter will choose the mode and route combination that minimizes the total cost of delivery to import destination node j from export origin node i . These assumptions on modal split, trip assignment and system performance imply a Wardrop user equilibrium model of (multimodal) path choice. More precisely, if r
iju is identified as the minimum delivery cost, the perceived delivery costs on all used
multimodal paths for any given O-D pair are equal to or less than those on unused multimodal paths
r
rij
rp
rijr
p Riju
HuC
,Pp
0H if
0 if r
ijrp
rr
ara
Aa
rap
rp RijFCC
r
,Pp )( rij
rrap Rij
pa
,Pp otherwise 0
path to belongs link if 1 rij
rpH = the flow of commodity r on multimodal path p and the link-path incidence
relationships are given by rr
pPp
rap
ra AaHF
r
The IFSTEM Model
Assumptions
The demand for the transport of one commodity is independent of that of another. In other words, the movement of different commodities is assumed to involve independent interaction with the transportation system. For this reason, they can be modelled separately, and IFSTEM may therefore be decomposed by commodity type.
Capacity issues are generally not a principle concern in
regional or international freight transportation planning, it is not necessary to simultaneously assign multi-commodity flows to this international network; a simplified separation of freight into commodity groupings is sufficiently relevant.
Each commodity or sector becomes a layer, and together all
relevant layers provide an aggregate estimate of all freight traffic volumes at a level of accuracy that is useful for planning.
IFSTEM: for each commodity Cr , r
Dj
I i } )( expln,0m ax{ ri
rj
rij
ri
ri AuS
rI i ri
ri
rri ESG
r
Dk
rk
rik
ri
rj
rij
rir
irij Rij
imc
Au
AuG
Tri
otherwise 0
0 if
)exp(
)exp(
r
rij
rp
rijr
p Riju
HuC
,Pp
0H if
0 if r
ijrp
rr
ara
Aa
rap
rp RijFCC
r
,Pp )( rij
Model Solution
An equivalent optimization problem
The solution procedure
The calibration process
Computer program code
An equivalent optimization problem and
The solution procedure
4. Application To A Prototype
Prototype Network Representation
Prototype Link Cost Functions
Prototype Socio-economic Parameters and Variables Assumed Values
Prototype Output Results
Lebanon
IraqSyria
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Beirut MasnaJdeidetYabus
Damascus Tanf
Al-WalidBaghdad
Safwan
Abdally
Kuwait
Nuwayseeb
Khafji
Dammam
Riyadh
Jeddah
JedeidatAr'ar
Hadithah
Omari
Al-Mudawara
HalatAmmar
Amman
Jaber
NasibTarabil
Karameh
Jordan
Kuwait
601 600403
401 400
305303
304
103
301
202
201
200
102
101
100
104
402 500 306
503
502
504
106
501
105
Legend
Road (Rail) Link
Airport
Sea port
Figure 3: Prototype Multimodal Network
Table 1: Commodity O-D Pairs
O-D Pair Number Origin Destination 1 15416 (Jeddah) 35317 (Baghdad) 2 15016 (Riyadh) 65117 (Beirut) 3 45116 (Damascus) 25117 (Kuwait) 4 45116 (Damascus) 15417 (Jeddah)
Prototype Link Cost Functions
(a) Modal link cost function for road, rail, air and maritime transport:
aaaaa eDistdFcFbFC 2)(
b, c, d and e are constants whose values are assumed depend on the mode type;
aF is the link flow
aDist is the link length in kilometers (km).
(b) Operational link cost function for export, import, transit-in, transit-out, pre-export, pre-import and transfer procedures:
aaa mFnFC )(
n and m are constants whose values are assumed depend on the type of operation.
Table 2 : Parameter File for Link Cost Function
Parameters Mode/Operation b c d e n m
Road 10 .005 .0005 .30 - -
Rail 10 .002 .0001 .15 - -
Air 200 .080 .0001 .80 - -
Maritime 100 .050 .0001 .10 - -
Export - - - - 20 .11
Import - - - - 20 .12
Transit-in - - - - 20 .03
Transit-out - - - - 20 .04
Pre-export - - - 20 .16
Pre-import - - - - 20 .17
Transfer - - - - - .0008
Prototype Socio-economic Parameters and Variables Assumed Values
Table 3: Socioeconomic zonal File Zone Node Number
Production Socioeconomic Variable 1
Production Socioeconomic Variable 2
Production Socioeconomic Variable 3
Attraction Socioeconomic Variable 1
Attraction Socioeconomic Variable 2
Attraction Socioeconomic Variable 3
15416 1000 3000 2000 2000 2000 400 15016 2000 5000 3000 3000 3000 600 45116 5000 9000 5000 6000 9000 500 35317 4000 1000 6000 5000 8000 800 65117 6000 2000 2000 9000 6000 900 25117 7000 3000 5000 8000 4000 700 15417 1000 3000 2000 2000 2000 400
Table 4: Alpha’s Parameters File
^
1
^
2
^
3
^
500 0.21 0.47 2.5
Table 5: Theta’s Zonal Parameters File Zone Node Number
^
i ^
1i ^
2i ^
3i
15416 0.05 0.0001 0.0003 0.0001 15016 0.05 0.0002 0.0004 0.0002 45116 0.05 0.00025 0.0006 0.0004 35317 0.09 0.0007 0.0009 0.0005 65117 0.08 0.0009 0.0006 0.0001 25117 0.01 0.0001 0.0004 0.0006 15417 0.05 0.0001 0.0003 0.0001
Prototype Output Prototype Output ResultsResults
Lebanon
IraqSyria
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Baghdad
Jeddah
Jedeidat Ar'arJordan
Kuwait
314
114
113
313
Rail
Legend
Final Solution for Jeddah-Baghdad O-D pair
Lebanon
IraqSyria
SaudiArabia
Kuw ait
B e i ru t M a s n aJ d e i d e tY a b u s
D a m a s c us
Riyadh
J e d d a h
H a d i th a h
O m a ri
A m m a n
J a b e r
N a s i b
Jo r d an
Kuw a it
4 1 2
5 1 3
5 1 4
6 1 04 1 3
4 1 1
5 1 2 1 1 6
6 1 1
1 1 4
1 1 0
Rail
Legend
M arit im e
Path 1
Path 2
Final Solution for Riyadh-Beirut O-D Pair
Prototype Output Results Table 6: Final Solution for Riyadh-Beirut O-D pair Path No. From To Path Flow
in Tons Path Cost in cost units
1 15016(Riyadh) 65117(Beirut ) 119.41559 646.2239 From To Cost Mode or Operation Type 15016 (Riyadh) 10016 (Riyadh) 0.00E+00 18 Dummy Origin (Riyadh Road) 10016 (Riyadh) 100 (Riyadh) 51.84399 16 Pre-export 100 (Riyadh) 110 (Riyadh) 1.59E-01 10 Transfer (Road to Rail) 110 (Riyadh) 114 (Jeddah) 155.3648 2 Rail 114 (Jeddah) 134 (Jeddah) 6.37E-02 10 Transfer (Rail to Seaport) 134 (Jeddah) 13411(Jeddah) 33.13572 11 Export (at Jeddah Seaport ) 13411 (Jeddah) 631 (Beirut) 317.3968 4 Maritime 631 (Beirut) 63112 (Beirut) 34.32987 12 Import (at Beirut Seaport) 63112 (Beirut) 601 (Beirut) 9.55E-02 10 Transfer (Seaport to Road) 601 (Beirut) 60117 (Beirut) 53.83424 17 Pre-import 60117 (Beirut) 65117 (Beirut) 0.00E+00 18 Dummy Destination (Beirut Road)
Path No. From To Path Flow in Tons
Path Cost in cost units
2 15016(Riyadh) 65117(Beirut ) 79.2978 651.1414 From To Cost Mode or Operation Type 15016 (Riyadh) 10016 (Riyadh) 0.00E+00 18 Dummy Origin (Riyadh Road) 10016 (Riyadh) 100 (Riyadh) 51.84399 16 Pre-export 100 (Riyadh) 110 (Riyadh) 1.59E-01 10 Transfer (Road to Rail) 110 (Riyadh) 116 (Hadithah) 232.343 2 Rail 116 (Hadithah) 11611 (Hadithah) 24.36138 11 Export (at Hadithah Border Point) 11611 (Hadithah) 514 (Omari) 11.7365 2 Rail 514 (Omari) 51413 (Omari) 22.38828 13 Transit-in (at Omari Border Point) 51413 (Omari) 512 (Amman) 37.04298 2 Rail 512 (Amman) 513 (Jaber) 27.89298 2 Rail 513 (Jaber) 51314 (Jaber) 23.18438 14 Transit-out (at Jaber Border Point) 51314 (Jaber) 412 (Nasib) 12.29298 2 Rail 412 (Nasib) 41213 (Nasib) 22.38828 13 Transit-in (at Nasib Border Point) 41213 (Nasib) 411 (Damascus) 26.39298 2 Rail 411 (Damascus) 413 (Jedeidat Yabus) 18.59299 2 Rail 413 (Jedeidat Yabus) 41314 (Jedeidat Yabus) 23.18438 14 Transit-out (at Jedeidat Yabus Border Point) 41314(Jedeidat Yabus) 610 (Masna) 12.29298 2 Rail 610 (Masna) 61012 (Masna) 29.55313 12 Import (at Masna Border Point) 61012 (Masna) 611 (Beirut) 21.59299 2 Rail 611 (Beirut) 601 (Beirut) 6.37E-02 10 Transfer (Rail to Road) 601 (Beirut) 60117 (Beirut) 53.83424 17 Pre-import 60117 (Beirut) 65117 (Beirut) 0.00E+00 18 Dummy Destination (Beirut Road)
Lebanon
IraqSyria
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Damascus Tanf
Al-WalidBaghdad
Safwan
Abdally
Kuwait
Jordan
Kuwait
211
313411 410
315
311
212
Rail
Legend
Final Solution for Damascus-Kuwait O-D pair
Lebanon
IraqSyria
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Beirut MasnaJdeidetYabus
Damascus
Jeddah
Al-Mudawara
HalatAmmar
Amman
Jaber
Nasib
Jordan
Kuwait
412
513
610413
411
512
511
115
611
114
Rail
Legend
Maritime
Final Solution for Damascus-Jeddah O-D pair
Table 7: Path Total Costs O-D Path 1
Flow Path 1 unit cost
Path 1 total cost
Path 2 Flow
Path 2 unit cost
Path 2 Total cost
O-D total cost
Jeddah-Baghdad 128.29 487.76 62574.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 62574.48 Riyadh-Beirut 119.42 646.22 77169.21 79.61 651.14 51836.96 129006.17 Damascus-Kuwait
127.71 560.80 71617.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 71617.40
Damascus-Jeddah
141.46 593.73 83991.04 75.39 601.61 45357.36 129348.40
Totals 392546.45
5. Conclusions and Future and Current Activities
Conclusions
Future and Current Activities
Conclusions
An international freight simultaneous transportation equilibrium model (IFSTEM) was developed to predict equilibrium flow patterns that can describe the behaviour of exporters and importers of different commodities over an international multimodal network covering ESCWA member countries.
IFSTEM is considered a central component of the ITSAM-
FRAMEWORK, which is one of the three major elements of the Integrated Transport System in the Arab Mashreq.
The network representation associated with IFSTEM exemplifies
the multimodal concept, whereby a commodity can be transferred from one mode to another during its journey from its origin to its destination.
Administrative and logistical operations are mathematically
represented by links that are considered integral components of any multimodal path.
The delivery cost from an origin to a destination using any
multimodal path will be influenced by the ALO costs all along that path. Therefore, the model can test different policy scenarios that take into account the variables affecting ALO cost.
The main objective of IFSTEM is to show how the increase in trade between ESCWA member countries that would result from supply-related improvements in the region’s transport system could be measured. Such improvements would involve the establishment of a better transportation infrastructure, increased transportation network integration (based on the multimodal concept), and the facilitation of border procedures and regulations (ALOs) in terms of cost and time. IFSTEM is capable of measuring the effects of these supply improvements when applied to real world situations.
The model can also be used to measure changes in demand (through an assessment of changes in socio-economic variables) and to predict how such changes will affect the supply side.
The prototype results show that the model satisfies the
behavioural aspects of the application and its solution procedure is computationally tractable. This should encourage the full implementation of IFSTEM as a policy analysis tool and a decision-support system for transport policy makers in the region.
Future and Current Activities
The design and implementation of a calibration process for the IFSTEM demand models (the calibration of trip generation and trip distribution models to estimate the model parameters)
The design and implementation of a calibration process for the
IFSTEM performance models (the calibration of link performance functions for different mode and operation types)
The validation of the models’ capability to reproduce base-year
inputs The validation of models’ predictive power to forecast future
flows
Future and Current Activities (Cont.)
The development of simulation models for ALO operations at land border points, seaports and airports, and their integration within IFSTEM
The geographic integration of IFSTEM with its database
The development of a user-friendly interface to perform graphic
policy scenario analyses on ITSAM using IFSTEM. Proper data collection and management is essential for the implementation of most of these steps; thus, parallel efforts are needed to develop ITSAM-INFOSYS.
Multimodal, Multicommodity International Multimodal, Multicommodity International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Freight Simultaneous Transportation Network Equilibrium Model (Recent Network Equilibrium Model (Recent
ImplementationImplementation
Data Collection
Black Sea
Americans
'Damascus
Amman(Jordan)
Bab Al Hawwa
Lattakia(Syria)
Tartous(Syria)
Tripoli(Lebanon)
Beirut(Lebanon)
Aqaba(Jordan)
Masna(Lebanon)
Nasib(Syria)
Jaber(Jodan)
West Mediterranean Sea
North and North East Europe
Far East andSouth East Asia
(Turkey)
(Syria) (Syria)
Jdeydet Yabus(Syria)
Figure 1: Original Network for Goods Flows through the Ports and Lands of Jordon, Syria, And Lebanon
810
710
910
310
210
421
422
621
600
521
811
413
611
411
401
402
403
404
405
501
502
503
504
505
506
603602601
503
504
502
505
506
501
402
403
404
405
401
511412
411
500
Figure 2: IFSTEM Basic Network Representation for Goods Flows through the Ports and Lands of Jordon, Syria, And Lebanon
DEMAND MODELS ASSUMPTIONS
)(1
liE
lq
L
lli
E
1. 1l 2. o
ii GE 1 (observed trip generation at origin i )
3. 60.1 for all origins Hence
Ii 60.0 oi
oi GE
That is the observed composite measure of the effect of the socio-economic variables, which are exogenous to the transport system, is counted for 60% of the number of tons of the general goods that exported from that origin
)(1
wjw
W
wiwj AgA
We assumed that RijTA o
ijij ln
the a proxy measure of jA as a composite measure of the effect that socio-economic variables
exogenous to the transport system have on the number of tons of the general goods imported at each destination j that is exported from the origin i only. By this assumption each destination has deferent attractive with respect different origins. We assume that this attractive composite measure is the dominate of the exporter observed utility function
I i ln oi
oi GS
IiGLn
Goi
oi
i )(
4.0
We estimate i =0.0000005 for all origins by the following method:
we run the computer code that solve IFSTEM model for different values for till we got this value )0000005.( that satisfied the condition
40.1
Ii
pi
Ii
oi
G
G
where p
iG is the predicted trip generation for origin i for year 2001. This value of
will keep the affect of system performance (supply), as measure by the delivery cost iju ,
on the predicted trip generated from origin to be 40% in average less than the observed trip generation.
This 40% decrease is what we gain when we assumed before that 0iju to
represent the observed trip generation behavior of exporters as an initial solution to IFSTEM.
LINK COST FUNCTIONS ASSUMPTIONS
The following link cost function was used:
vtxxiclcxC )()( where x = number of tons of general goods
)(xC = Cost of x tons of general goods in US dollar lc = legal transport or operation cost per ton in US dollar ic = illegal transport or operation cost per ton in US dollar i = transportation or operation time in days v = 3.7, the value of time per ton per day as estimated in ESCWA, 2003a study. The values ,, iclc and i for each import, export, transit-in, and transit-out operational link
and maritime transport were obtained from Tables A2-A4.
The distance of land transport for each path and its entire links were computed, and then the land transport time i for each link was computed as follows:
time transportlandpath x distancepath
distancelink i
comparing the results of the IFSTEM final solution, with the observed ones:
The O-D flows (the trip generation for IFSTEM) decreases from 984492.00 to 752001.06 for O-D 1, from 660405.00 to 507237.61 for O-D 2, from 422467.00 to 320847.82 for O-D 3, from 1443743.00 to 945609.10 for O-D 4, from 805484.00 to 522465.15 for O-D 5, and from 525185.00 to 344711.23 for O-D 6 and
4.1
1.427
3392871.97
4841776.00
23.34471115.5224651.94560982.32084761.50723706.752001
5251858054841443743422467660405844929
Ii
pi
Ii
oi
G
G
as mentioned in Section III for the choice of 0000005. to satisfy the above equation.
These decreases in the trip generations for all origins support the IFSTEM model concepts that state: if the observed utility ijV decreases, the number of trip generation will decrease.
the above finding doesn’t mean that only the predicted trip generation should be
distributed, but we can keep the relative paths distribution and distribute all observed trip generation, i.e.,
Adjusted predicted path flow = flows D-O observedflow D-O predicted
flowpath predicted
Path O-D 1 cost cost/ton O-D 2 cost cost/ton
1 99331.74 13751802.13 138.44 80315.67 11769712.28 146.54
2 188800.43 25154062.43 133.23 126280.74 18314620.45 145.03
3 152277.79 19056936.64 125.15 116561.43 16339398.16 140.18
4 191179.57 23961349.44 125.33 149867.62 21196413.13 141.43
5 245317.65 28876156.99 117.71 187379.54 26459731.94 141.21
6 107584.83 27209055.67 252.91
Total 984492.00 138009363.31 892.77 660405.00 94079875.96 714.40
Average cost 140.18 Average cost 142.46
Table 1: Adjusted Final Solution Based on Legal and Illegal Costs for Year 2001
Path O-D 3 cost cost/ton O-D 4 cost cost/ton
1 55722.54 9675839.89 173.64 250092.78 70311867.12 281.14
2 113027.63 19455563.78 172.13 286652.29 80156859.87 279.63
3 37486.11 5490903.52 146.48 263701.49 66631670.93 252.68
4 64679.05 9555313.85 147.73 327227.55 83094289.80 253.93
5 151551.67 25659096.34 169.31 316068.88 93464466.50 295.71
Total 422467.00 69836717.37 809.30 1443743.00 393659154.22 1363.10
Average cost 165.31 Average cost 272.67
Table 1: Adjusted Final Solution Based on Legal and Illegal Costs for Year 2001 (Cont.)
Path O-D 5 cost cost/ton O-D 6 cost cost/ton
1 189330.04 51134579.13 270.08 183620.45 37009664.49 201.56
2 195085.36 51587036.95 264.43 225795.99 43747963.12 193.75
3 137153.49 26940419.20 196.43 115768.56 33660306.09 290.76
4 140684.24 27606571.92 196.23
5 143230.87 29093463.52 203.12
Total 805484.00 186362070.71 1130.29 525185.00 114417933.71
Average cost 231.37 Average cost 217.86
Total Average
Cost 1169.84
Table 1: Adjusted Final Solution Based on Legal and Illegal Costs for Year 2001 (Cont.)
O-D
Observed
Average cost
per ton
Predicted
Average cost
Per ton
Observed
O-D Flows Saving in the total cost
1 139.7304751 140.1833263 984492 -445,828.44
2 141.3222818 142.4578493 660405 -749,934.47
3 169.4769156 165.3069172 422467 1,761,686.74
4 295.5521543 272.6656713 1443743 33,042,199.65
5 266.8040219 231.3665706 805484 28,544,300.02
6 195.6931669 217.8621509 525185 -11,642,817.83
Total 1208.579016 1169.842485 4841776 50,509,605.67
Table 2: Comparison between Observed and Adjusted IFSTEM Final Solution Based on Legal and Illegal Costs for Year 2001
O-D
Observed
Average cost per
ton
Predicted
Average cost
Per ton
Observed
O-D Flows Saving in the total cost
1 139.0997441 138.5581836 984492 533,161.92
2 141.0280027 140.9379905 660405 59,444.47
3 169.261728 163.8659082 422467 2,279,555.82
4 295.4742529 270.6974938 1443743 35,771,272.61
5 254.6557169 224.6689715 805484 24,153,843.65
6 195.0256607 215.3559631 525185 -10,677,169.88
Total 1194.545105 1154.084511 4841776 52,120,108.58
Table 3: Comparison Between Observed and IFSTEM Final Solution Based on Legal Costs Only For Year 2001
O-D
Predicted Average
cost per ton Based
on legal and
illegal costs
Predicted
flows Based
on legal and
illegal costs
Predicted
Average cost per
ton Based on
legal costs only
Predicted flows
Based on legal
costs only
Observed
O-D
Flows
Saving in the
total cost
1 140.1833263 752001.06 138.5581836 753489.02 984492 1,599,939.99
2 142.4578493 507237.61 140.9379905 508223.26 660405 1,003,722.33
3 165.3069172 320847.82 163.8659082 321361.64 422467 608,778.73
4 272.6656713 945609.1 270.6974938 945895.2 1443743 2,841,542.49
5 231.3665706 522465.15 224.6689715 523458.71 805484 5,394,808.89
6 217.8621509 344711.23 215.3559631 345608.54 525185 1,316,212.21
Total 1169.842485 3392871.97 1154.084511 3398036.37 4841776 12,765,004.64
Table 4: Comparison between IFSTEM Final Solution Based on Legal and Illegal Cost and IFSTEM Final Solution Based on Legal Costs Only For Year 2001
THE OUTPUT PREDICTION RESULTS FOR YEAR 2007
After we tested and validated IFSTEM model using the base year 2001 data, we assumed that there will be 6% annual growth in the socio-economic activities. The estimated-observed O-D pair flows for year 2007 are computed as follows: Estimated-Observed O-D pair flows for year 2007 = (Observed O-D pair flows for year 2001) x(1.06)6 For IFSTEM model application, The growth is reflected through new values for the socio-economic variables iE and ijA as follows:
iE for year 2007 = ( iE for year 2001)x(1.06)6
ijA for year 2007 = ( ijA for year 2001)x(1.06)6
O-D
Predicted
Average
cost per ton
for year
2007
predicted
flows for
year 2007
Predicted
Average cost
per ton for
year 2001
predicted
flows for
year 2001
Estimated-
Observed
O-D Flows
Saving in the
total cost
1 138.3074934 1017474.3 138.5581836 753489.02 1396521 350,094.15
2 140.9739634 683701.64 140.9379905 508223.26 936797 -33,699.33
3 162.819756 434408.23 163.8659082 321361.64 599278 626,935.51
4 270.6014559 1342685.2 270.6974938 945895.2 2047977 196,683.23
5 221.8480839 744003 224.6689715 523458.71 1142594 3,223,130.46
6 215.8258424 496942.9 215.3559631 345608.54 744985 -350,052.96
Total 1150.376595 4719215.27 1154.084511 3398036.37 6868151.793 4,013,091.07
Table 5: Comparison between IFSTEM Final Solution Based On Legal Costs Only For Year 2001 and IFSTEM Final Solution Based on Legal Costs Only For Year 2007
CONCLUSIONS
Although some socio-economic variables, which are not available, were required for IFSTEM model calibration, some reasonable assumptions were made and it were good enough to draw the following main findings:
1. The IFSTEM model was able to replicated the observed path and O-D pair goods flows for year 2001 through its initial solution.
2. The IFSTEM final solution suggested that the path distribution for most observed O-D pairs flows is not optimal due to the exporters depend only one some measure of attractiveness in their path choice and it should be redistributed to save in the total cost.
3. The IFSTEM can be consider as a good decision support tool that is able to evaluate the
value of any scenario that can be reflected through any change in the costs and/or times of its link cost function, as the case of canceling illegal cost, or any change in the socio-economic variables, as the case of year 2007 prediction.
4. The three countries of Jordon, Syria, and Lebanon import only goods from countries outside the ESCWA region which is not the main objective of the development of IFSTEM and ITSAM to increase the trade between ESCWA countries. It is also very difficult to collect the socio-economic data that required for IFSTEM methodology for these outsider countries.
FUTURE ACTIVITIES
A limitation of a full implementation of IFSTEM to all ESCWA countries or a group of them is suggested and should include all of the following:
1. Data collection program to collect all the socio-economic data needed to
perform a real calibration of the trip generation and trip distribution models parameters.
2. Data collection program to collect data needed to perform a real calibration of the link performance (generalized cost) function for different mode and different operation.
3. Implement IFSTEM using the data collected in activities 1 and 2 Integrating the above future activities with the following current activities:
1. The integration of IFSTEM with its Geographic Information System (GIS) database.
2. The development of a user-friendly interface to perform graphic policy scenario analyses on ITSAM using IFSTEM.
will result in a very important Decision Support System that help the decision makers of ESCWA countries to take a right decision that is based on a scientific approach regarding what they have to do to increase the goods trade among their countries.
An Integrated Transport System for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries
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