Date post: | 15-Apr-2017 |
Category: |
Science |
Upload: | department-of-housing-and-public-works-queensland |
View: | 231 times |
Download: | 3 times |
Looking to the future
Oscar Alves, Bureau of Meteorology
Plan/Timelines
• 2016 ACCESS-S1: Fast-track basic 60km system in collaboration with UKMO
– Experimental Products Q3 2016– Operational Products mid 2017 (replace current SCO products)– High accuracy– Much higher regional detail (60km vs 250km)
• 2018 ACCESS-S2: Comprehensive 60km version utilising local improvements
– Even Higher accuracy– Tailored for Australian Climate
• 2021/2 ACCESS-S3: 30 km ?
Enhanced resolution
August Mean Rainfall
Obs ACCESS-SPOAMA-2
mm/day
Higher resolution greatly improves the depiction of mean rainfall
Potential skill increase (First month)
GLOSEA-5 Regional Rainfall Skill (above median hit rate for first month)Indication of potential skill increase with higher resolution
CommentsWarning: Based only on 15 years and small ensemble size
Improvements likely to be lower beyond first month (further analyses available shortly)
Region POAMA2 GLOSEA-5 % Improvement
Australia 55.6 62.8 13%
Murray Darling Basin 57.0 62.5 10%
GRDC Western Region 56.4 57.2 1%
Queensland 56.7 65.5 16%
Northern Tropics 50.5 63.5 26%
Enhanced resolution for the atmosphere and land
Enhanced resolution for the ocean
Product Research: Seamless Products
Artists Impression: Tailored seamless products with user specific thresholds and designs
July August September
Frost Line
Climatology
Minimum Temperature6543210
Product Research: Seamless Products
Artists Impression: Tailored seamless products with user specific thresholds and designs
July August September
Soil Moisture
Plant stress
Real Working Example: Ingham
• Tailored seamless products with user specific thresholds and designs• Hope to have some experimental designs live in late 2016 for selected
stations/regions
OCT Nov