“DRAFT” RMATS 2008 Base Case (To be presented at the RMATS Stakeholders Meeting) March 17, 2004.

“DRAFT”

RMATS 2008 Base Case(To be presented at the RMATS Stakeholders Meeting)

March 17, 2004

2

RMATSRMATS 2008 Base Case- March 17, 2004

Overview

Modeling Approach

Purpose & Scope – Base Case

Key Assumptions

Base Case Results

3


Modeling Approach

Modeled with ABB Market Simulator•Production cost model

•West-wide scope with a particular focus on the RMATS region

•Detailed transmission representation

•Calculates nodal / bus prices (LMPs)•Hourly resolution

LP dispatch optimization is based on: Treatment of hydro and wind generationSingle test year – 2008

4


LMPs: Marginal Costs at the Nodal Bus Level

The cost of delivering the next 1 MW of power to a particular location, or the savings from reducing load by 1 MW at that location (sometimes called shadow price)

In concept, transmission congestion (bottlenecks) an losses cause differences in marginal prices at the nodal/bus level

LMPs are calculated separately for loads and generation LMPs tend to decrease as relatively low cost resources are

added• High wind capacity sensitivity is an example

Targeted transmission investments levelize/stabilize marginal prices because congestion is relieved but the investment cost may outweigh the benefit

5


Modeling Limitations

Modeling assumes a single, seamless west-wide market with no rate or loss pancaking

LP optimizes dispatch on a west-wide basis (perfect knowledge)

Not modeled:• Must-run generation

• Unit commitment

• Transmission wheeling and loss charges

• Generator forced outages

• Contractual / tariff constraints

• Bid behavior

• Sub-hourly operations

• Actual heat rate curves- approximate only

6


Implications of Modeling Approach

Tends to make fuller, more optimal use of transmission than operations currently allow• Analogous to a seamless, single RTO world

Tends to mask the tariff and contractual constraints of today

Makes wind appear more economic because fewer constraints lead to greater dispatch

Fifteen percent planning margin used may be conservative• Margin is calculated off nameplate

• Covers generator forced outages and operating reserves that ABB MS does not model

7


Base Case Objectives

Focus on congestion and congestion costs

Assess the current system• Include existing system, plus new, viable investment already in progress

• Identify incidence and duration of congestion

• Estimate the resulting congestion costs

• Include several load, gas price, and hydro sensitivities

• Review plant performance

Illuminate opportunities for cost-effective projects• Estimate the incremental value of expansion on congested paths

2008 Load

2008 Load w/ additional

wind

High Load*

$4 Gas X X X

$5 Gas X X X

* 2013 loads applied to 2008 resources and transmission

Base Case Runs

Key Assumptions

9


# Assumption Subcommittee Consensus

Assumption Description

1 Inflation rate 2.5% annual escalation applied to fuel and variable O&M

2 Transmission topology 33 bubble topology

3 Transmission path ratings & nomograms

As modeled by SSG-WI. Modifications spotlight the Rocky Mountain States

4 Transmission additions WECC 2008 case, as validated by the RMATS Transmissions Additions Team

5 RMATS regional loads and average annual load growth

As provided by Load Forecast Work Group (LFWG), based on WECC Load Forecast issued in 2003

6 Gas prices 2008 US average wellhead set at $4.00 and $5.00 / MMBtu

7 Treatment of DSM DSM decremented against load, based on WECC Load Forecast issued in 2003

8 Existing thermal plants Existing thermal plants as modeled in the SSG-WI base case.

9 Resource additions Resources in progress

13 Generator cost curves All generators by class and vintage are assumed to have similar cost curves

14 Renewable resources As modeled by SSG-WI, with additions per RMATS Resources Team

15 Wind modeling Assumptions consistent with SSG-WI Study. NREL provided wind shapes

For more complete details on "Assumptions", see Appendix on RMATS website for additional material.

Key Assumption Summary

http://psc.state.wy.us/htdocs/subregional/home.htm

10


System “Balloon” Diagram

B.C. Hydro

Sandiego

SOCOLIF

PG & E

Northwest

Alberta

Aquila

LADWP

Mexico -C

Sierra

Nevada

RMATS2008 BASE CASE

MONT

WYO

IDAHO

UTAH

COLO

MPC

MdptBoise

& Snake KGB

JB

SWWyo

Bonz

ColW

Wyo

BHB

Ywtl

Bdvw CrsOvr

& Colsp

UT S

IPP

Bhills

LRS

MilesCity DCWest of

Broadview

MPC -Wyo

YellowtailSouth

Tot - 4B

Mont - NW

Idaho -Montana

JB West

IPC -Wyo

Tot - 4A

Monmt -Ngtn

Path C

FlamingGorge

Tot - 5BonanzaWest

IPP - Mona

Gonder - Pavant

BorahWest

West ofCrossover

Tot - 2A

Tot - 2BTot - 2C

Tot - 2

33 Bubbles

ColE

Tot - 2A

West ofColstrip

UTN

TOT1AWF - S

WAPA L.C.

ImperialCA

Arizona

NewMexico

11


Loads – 2008 Base Case Based on WECC L&R Forecast issued in 2003, with updates for Rocky Mountain States

NWPP-Canada

NWPP-US

Rocky Mt. StatesAZ, NM & S. NV

California

Mexico - CFE

Summer: 58.4Winter: 44.8

Annual GWh with Coincidental Summer & Winter Peaks (GW)






165,719309,324

14,425

156,763 143,595

130,743

Load: 920,569 GWh

Summer Peak: 157 GW

12


Coal, 16,896 Gas, 6,838

Hydro, 4,629

Wind, 508

Other, 227 Geothermal, 23

Resource Additions- 2008 Base Case

Facility Location TechnologyCapacity

(MW)Springerville Expansion Arizona Coal 400

Nebo Utah Gas- CCCT 147

Currant Creek Utah Gas- CCCT 525

Bennett Mountain Idaho Gas- SCCT 167

Pleasant Valley Wyoming Wind 144

Additional Colorado Wind Capacity Colorado Wind 23

Total 1,406

2008 Rocky Mountain Area Total Resources (MW)

Total Capacity

29,121 MW

• All plants in service by 2006

• Does not include additional wind capacity of 1750 MW

Incremental Additions

13


Hydro, DSM, Wind – 2008 Base Case

Hydro• Hydro generation is simulated for median water conditions• Used SSG-WI hourly shapes for Canada and the Northwest

DSM • For the 2008 Base Case, efficiency and DSM programs are decremented against

loads in the WECC forecast

Wind• High wind sensitivity - added 1742 MW nameplate to the 508 MW in the base

case, bringing the total to 2250 MW of wind in the Rocky Mountain Area• Did not consider transmission impacts other than on monitored interfaces

(feasibility may require significant transmission additions)

Base Case Results

15


Base Case Observations

The top 5 congested paths in the Rocky Mountain sub-region are also export-related paths:• Idaho to Montana

• TOT 2C

• Bridger West

• IPP DC

• TOT 3

16


LMP PricesAverage Annual

Load LMP Generation LMP

$4 Gas/ 2008 Load

$4 Gas/ High Wind

$4 Gas/ High Load

$5 Gas/ 2008 Load

34 3438 38 34 3438 38 44 4343 43 42 4246 46

38 3738 3743 4246 45

37 3737 3643 4245 45

37 37 37 3737 37 37 3743 42 43 42

38 38 45 45 45 4538 37 37 3843 43 36 3746 46 42 43

45 46

38 3738 37 37 37 37 3745 44 38 38 35 35 35 3546 45 38 38 43 43 37 36 43 43

45 45 45 45 35 34 45 4546 46 43 42

45 44

36 36 37 3739 39 33 33 35 34 36 3638 38 44 44 43 43 35 3445 46 44 44 45 45 42 4247 47 44 44

38 3840 41 37 37 37 3640 40 37 37 44 4445 45 43 43 46 46 37 3648 49 45 45 36 35

37 37 43 4236 36 45 44 37 3743 43 36 36

39 40 45 45 43 4439 40 37 37 37 36 45 4545 46 37 36 36 3547 48 36 37 44 43 42 41

36 36 45 45 44 4442 4244 44

41 4241 4246 4649 50 40 44

40 4445 4948 53 37 36

36 36 38 3640 39 42 41 37 3640 39 44 44 43 4245 45 46 4449 47

38 3838 3767 6646 46

BC Hydro

Montana- West

Broadview

West of Colstrip

Yellowtail

Idaho- West

Goshen

Jim Bridger

Utah- North

Utah- South

IPP

Bonanza

Colorado- West

Colorado- East

Laramie RiverSW Wyoming

C Wyoming

N Wyoming (BHB) Black Hills

Aquila

LADWP

San Diego

SOCOLIF

PG & E

Northwest

ArizonaNew Mexico

Nevada

Sierra

WAPA L.C.

Mexico C

Imperial

AlbertaAlberta

17


January 2008 Monthly Average LMP$4 Gas

NELWAY

BRIDGER

COLSTRIP

GOSHEN

BORAH

KINPORT

M IDPOINT

SUM M ERLAKE

M ALIN

CAPTJACK

M ERIDIAN

ALVEY

ALLSTON

KEELER

PEARL

ROUNDM T

OLINDA

JOHN DAY

M ARION

LANE

GRIZ Z LY

BUCKLEY

THEDALLES

OSTRANDER SLATT

M cNARY(1169 M W)

BOARDM AN

PAUL /CENTRALIA

RAVER

M ONROE

CUSTER

ECHOLAKE

CHIEFJOE GRAND COULEE

SCHULTZ

HANFORD

ASHE

VANTAGE

LOWM ON

LITGOOSE

LOWGRANITE

TAFT

GARRISON

DWORSHAK

TOWNSENDBROADVIEW

BELL

DIXONVILLE

BENLOM OND

NAUGHTON

ANACONDA

ATLANTICCITY

ROCKSPRINGS

M ONUM ENT

M USTANG

SPENCE

BILLINGS

YELLOWTAIL

CUSTER

GREATFALLS

OVANDO

HOTSPRINGS

CABGORGE

NOXON

LOLO

HELLSCANYON

ROUNDUP

OXBOW

BROWNLEE

BOISE

ENTERPRISE

WALLAWALLA

LAGRANDE

HATWAI

M OSCOW

BENEWAH

RIVERTON

BUFFALO

OREGONBASIN

THERM OPOLIS

WYODAK

CASPER

SHERIDAN

PLATTE

DAVE JOHNSTON

M ILES CITYDC TIE

GRANTSPASS

COPCO

LONEPINE

ROSS

ONTARIO

CALDWELL

BURNS

WANETA

BOUNDARY

VACA-DIXON

TRACY

TESLA

TABLEM T

LOSBANOS

M OSSLANDING

TERM INAL

M ONA

FOUR CORNERS

90SOUTH

CAM PWILLIAM S

BONANZ A

HUNTINGTON

SIGURD

IPP

GONDER

HARRYALLEN

M ACHACEKFTCHURCHILL

AUSTIN

PAVANT

HUNTER

SYLM AR

ADELANTO

GLENCANYON

VALM Y(562 M W)

HUM BOLDT

TRACY

VALLEYROAD

CROSS-OVER

AM PS

JEFFERSON

DILLONPETERSON

FLATS

DRUM

WEEDJCT

CASCADE

RESTON

OLYM PIA

INGLEDOW

ROCKYREACH

M IDWAY

LIBBY

HUNGRY HORSE

CRAIG

SAN JUAN

HAYDEN

LARAM IERIVER

ARCHER

AULT

RIFLE

M ONTROSE

PINTO

CURECANTI PONCHA

SIDNEY

STORY

L E G E N D:

500KV

+-500KVDC

345KV

230KV

115-161KV

LANGE

WESTHILL

STEGAL

COM ANCHEM IDWAY

DANIELS PARKM ALTA

SM OKY HILL

PAWNEE(530 M W)

VALM ONT

DILLON

BEAVER

WARNERHILL TOP

BORDERTOWN

REDBUTTE

FLAM INGGORGE

TREASURETON

K-FALLSCO GEN

BOYLE

NLEW ISTO N

DIABLO

GATES

M IDWAY

RINALDI

VINCENT

VICTORVILLE

LUGO

M IRALOM ASERRANO

VALLEY

DEVERS

M IGUEL IM PERIALVALLEY

M OJAVE

EL DORADO

M CCULLOUGH

M EAD

M ARKETPLACE

NAVAJO

M OENKOPI

YAVAPAI

TABLE M ESA

PALO VERDE

WESTWING

FLAGSTAFF

PINNACLE PEAK

CHOLLA

NORTH GILA LIBERTY

KYRENE SILVERKING

CORONADO

SOUTH

BICKNELLVAIL

GREENLEE

SPRINGERVILLE

SAGUARO

TORTOLITA

PARKER

PRESCOTT

ROUNDVALLEY

SELIGM ANDAVIS

CAM INO

EAGLEM T.

BLYTHE

KNOB

GILATIJUANA

M ETROPOLIJUAREZ

LOM AS

CIPRES

LAROSITA

SAN LUIS

M EXICALI

INTERGENSEM PRA

M ERIDIAN

CHEEKYE

M ALASPINA

DUNSM UIR

SAHTLAM

GOLD RIVER

ARNOTT

CLAYBURN

ROSEDALE

WHALEACH

BRIDGERIVER

NICOLA

KELLYLAKE

100 M ILEHOUSE

SODACREEK

BARLOW

WILLISTON

GLENANNAN

TELKWA

SKEENA

PRINCE RUPERT

KITM AT

KEM ANO

SAVONA

M ICA

REVELSTOKE

ASHTONCREEK

SELKIRK CRANBROOK

INVERM ERE

NATAL

PEIGAN N. LETHBRIDGE

LANGDON

JANETSARCEE

REDDEER

BENALTO

BRAZ EAU

BICKERDIKE KEEPHILLSELLERSLIE

W. BROOKS

WAREJTN. JENNER

EM PRESS

SHEERNESS

EAST EDM ONTON

CLOVERBAR

LAM OUREUX

DEERLAND

WHITEFISHLAKE

M ARGUERITELAKE

RUTH LAKE

M ITSUE

N. CALDER

N. BARRHEAD

LITTLESM OKY

LOUISECREEK

SAGITAWAH

WABAM UN

SUNDANCE

M CKINLEY

P.E.G.S.

AM BROSIA WESTM ESA

B-A

NORTON

OJO

TAOS

BLACKWATER

ARTESIAAM RAD

CALIENTENEWM AN

ARROYO

DIABLO

LUNA

HIDALGO

LEUPP

EL CENTRO

KENNEDY

PEACE CANYON

PEACE RIVER

BATTLE RIVER

M ETISKOW

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METI S644

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METI S644

No congested

paths!

18


June 2008 Monthly Average LMP$4 Gas

NELWAY

BRIDGER

COLSTRIP

GOSHEN

BORAH

KINPORT

M IDPOINT

SUM M ERLAKE

M ALIN

CAPTJACK

M ERIDIAN

ALVEY

ALLSTON

KEELER

PEARL

ROUNDM T

OLINDA

JOHN DAY

M ARION

LANE

GRIZ Z LY

BUCKLEY

THEDALLES

OSTRANDER SLATT

M cNARY(1169 M W)

BOARDM AN

PAUL /CENTRALIA

RAVER

M ONROE

CUSTER

ECHOLAKE


SCHULTZ

HANFORD

ASHE

VANTAGE

LOWM ON

LITGOOSE

LOWGRANITE

TAFT

GARRISON

DWORSHAK

TOWNSENDBROADVIEW

BELL

DIXONVILLE

BENLOM OND

NAUGHTON

ANACONDA

ATLANTICCITY

ROCKSPRINGS

M ONUM ENT

M USTANG

SPENCE

BILLINGS

YELLOWTAIL

CUSTER

GREATFALLS

OVANDO

HOTSPRINGS

CABGORGE

NOXON

LOLO

HELLSCANYON

ROUNDUP

OXBOW

BROWNLEE

BOISE

ENTERPRISE

WALLAWALLA

LAGRANDE

HATWAI

M OSCOW

BENEWAH

RIVERTON

BUFFALO

OREGONBASIN

THERM OPOLIS

WYODAK

CASPER

SHERIDAN

PLATTE

DAVE JOHNSTON

M ILES CITYDC TIE

GRANTSPASS

COPCO

LONEPINE

ROSS

ONTARIO

CALDWELL

BURNS

WANETA

BOUNDARY

VACA-DIXON

TRACY

TESLA

TABLEM T

LOSBANOS

M OSSLANDING

TERM INAL

M ONA

FOUR CORNERS

90SOUTH

CAM PWILLIAM S

BONANZ A

HUNTINGTON

SIGURD

IPP

GONDER

HARRYALLEN


AUSTIN

PAVANT

HUNTER

SYLM AR

ADELANTO

GLENCANYON

VALM Y(562 M W)

HUM BOLDT

TRACY

VALLEYROAD

CROSS-OVER

AM PS

JEFFERSON

DILLONPETERSON

FLATS

DRUM

WEEDJCT

CASCADE

RESTON

OLYM PIA

INGLEDOW

ROCKYREACH

M IDWAY

LIBBY

HUNGRY HORSE

CRAIG

SAN JUAN

HAYDEN

LARAM IERIVER

ARCHER

AULT

RIFLE

M ONTROSE

PINTO

CURECANTI PONCHA

SIDNEY

STORY

L E G E N D:

500KV

+-500KVDC

345KV

230KV

115-161KV

LANGE

WESTHILL

STEGAL

COM ANCHEM IDWAY

DANIELS PARKM ALTA

SM OKY HILL

PAWNEE(530 M W)

VALM ONT

DILLON

BEAVER

WARNERHILL TOP

BORDERTOWN

REDBUTTE

FLAM INGGORGE

TREASURETON

K-FALLSCO GEN

BOYLE

NLEW ISTO N

DIABLO

GATES

M IDWAY

RINALDI

VINCENT

VICTORVILLE

LUGO

M IRALOM ASERRANO

VALLEY

DEVERS


M OJAVE

EL DORADO

M CCULLOUGH

M EAD

M ARKETPLACE

NAVAJO

M OENKOPI

YAVAPAI

TABLE M ESA

PALO VERDE

WESTWING

FLAGSTAFF

PINNACLE PEAK

CHOLLA

NORTH GILA LIBERTY

KYRENE SILVERKING

CORONADO

SOUTH

BICKNELLVAIL

GREENLEE

SPRINGERVILLE

SAGUARO

TORTOLITA

PARKER

PRESCOTT

ROUNDVALLEY

SELIGM ANDAVIS

CAM INO

EAGLEM T.

BLYTHE

KNOB

GILATIJUANA

M ETROPOLIJUAREZ

LOM AS

CIPRES

LAROSITA

SAN LUIS

M EXICALI

INTERGENSEM PRA

M ERIDIAN

CHEEKYE

M ALASPINA

DUNSM UIR

SAHTLAM

GOLD RIVER

ARNOTT

CLAYBURN

ROSEDALE

WHALEACH

BRIDGERIVER

NICOLA

KELLYLAKE

100 M ILEHOUSE

SODACREEK

BARLOW

WILLISTON

GLENANNAN

TELKWA

SKEENA

PRINCE RUPERT

KITM AT

KEM ANO

SAVONA

M ICA

REVELSTOKE

ASHTONCREEK

SELKIRK CRANBROOK

INVERM ERE

NATAL


LANGDON

JANETSARCEE

REDDEER

BENALTO

BRAZ EAU


W. BROOKS

WAREJTN. JENNER

EM PRESS

SHEERNESS

EAST EDM ONTON

CLOVERBAR

LAM OUREUX

DEERLAND

WHITEFISHLAKE

M ARGUERITELAKE

RUTH LAKE

M ITSUE

N. CALDER

N. BARRHEAD

LITTLESM OKY

LOUISECREEK

SAGITAWAH

WABAM UN

SUNDANCE

M CKINLEY

P.E.G.S.

AM BROSIA WESTM ESA

B-A

NORTON

OJO

TAOS

BLACKWATER

ARTESIAAM RAD

CALIENTENEWM AN

ARROYO

DIABLO

LUNA

HIDALGO

LEUPP

EL CENTRO

KENNEDY

PEACE CANYON

PEACE RIVER

BATTLE RIVER

M ETISKOW

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METI S644

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METI S644

Northwest to Canada

Congested Paths:

COI

Idaho to MontanaBridger West

Significant N-S Congestion

19


June 12, 2008 hr 06$4 Gas

NELWAY

BRIDGER

COLSTRIP

GOSHEN

BORAH

KINPORT

M IDPOINT

SUM M ERLAKE

M ALIN

CAPTJACK

M ERIDIAN

ALVEY

ALLSTON

KEELER

PEARL

ROUNDM T

OLINDA

JOHN DAY

M ARION

LANE

GRIZZ LY

BUCKLEY

THEDALLES

OSTRANDER SLATT

M cNARY(1169 M W)

BOARDM AN

PAUL /CENTRALIA

RAVER

M ONROE

CUSTER

ECHOLAKE


SCHULTZ

HANFORD

ASHE

VANTAGE

LOWM ON

LITGOOSE

LOWGRANITE

TAFT

GARRISON

DWORSHAK

TOWNSENDBROADVIEW

BELL

DIXONVILLE

BENLOM OND

NAUGHTON

ANACONDA

ATLANTICCITY

ROCKSPRINGS

M ONUM ENT

M USTANG

SPENCE

BILLINGS

YELLOWTAIL

CUSTER

GREATFALLS

OVANDO

HOTSPRINGS

CABGORGE

NOXON

LOLO

HELLSCANYON

ROUNDUP

OXBOW

BROWNLEE

BOISE

ENTERPRISE

WALLAWALLA

LAGRANDE

HATWAI

M OSCOW

BENEWAH

RIVERTON

BUFFALO

OREGONBASIN

THERM OPOLIS

WYODAK

CASPER

SHERIDAN

PLATTE

DAVE JOHNSTON

M ILES CITYDC TIE

GRANTSPASS

COPCO

LONEPINE

ROSS

ONTARIO

CALDWELL

BURNS

WANETA

BOUNDARY

VACA-DIXON

TRACY

TESLA

TABLEM T

LOSBANOS

M OSSLANDING

TERM INAL

M ONA

FOUR CORNERS

90SOUTH

CAM PWILLIAM S

BONANZA

HUNTINGTON

SIGURD

IPP

GONDER

HARRYALLEN


AUSTIN

PAVANT

HUNTER

SYLM AR

ADELANTO

GLENCANYON

VALM Y(562 M W)

HUM BOLDT

TRACY

VALLEYROAD

CROSS-OVER

AM PS

JEFFERSON

DILLONPETERSON

FLATS

DRUM

WEEDJCT

CASCADE

RESTON

OLYM PIA

INGLEDOW

ROCKYREACH

M IDWAY

LIBBY

HUNGRY HORSE

CRAIG

SAN JUAN

HAYDEN

LARAM IERIVER

ARCHER

AULT

RIFLE

M ONTROSE

PINTO

CURECANTI PONCHA

SIDNEY

STORY

L E G E N D:

500KV

+-500KVDC

345KV

230KV

115-161KV

LANGE

WESTHILL

STEGAL

COM ANCHE

M IDWAY

DANIELS PARKM ALTA

SM OKY HILL

PAWNEE(530 M W)

VALM ONT

DILLON

BEAVER

WARNERHILL TOP

BORDERTOWN

REDBUTTE

FLAM INGGORGE

TREASURETON

K-FALLSCO GEN

BOYLE

NLE W ISTON

DIABLO

GATES

M IDWAY

RINALDI

VINCENT

VICTORVILLE

LUGO

M IRALOM ASERRANO

VALLEY

DEVERS


M OJAVE

EL DORADO

M CCULLOUGH

M EAD

M ARKETPLACE

NAVAJO

M OENKOPI

YAVAPAI

TABLE M ESA

PALO VERDE

WESTWING

FLAGSTAFF

PINNACLE PEAK

CHOLLA

NORTH GILA LIBERTY

KYRENE SILVERKING

CORONADO

SOUTH

BICKNELLVAIL

GREENLEE

SPRINGERVILLE

SAGUARO

TORTOLITA

PARKER

PRESCOTT

ROUNDVALLEY

SELIGM ANDAVIS

CAM INO

EAGLEM T.

BLYTHE

KNOB

GILATIJUANA

M ETROPOLIJUAREZ

LOM AS

CIPRES

LAROSITA

SAN LUIS

M EXICALI

INTERGENSEM PRA

M ERIDIAN

CHEEKYE

M ALASPINA

DUNSM UIR

SAHTLAM

GOLD RIVER

ARNOTT

CLAYBURN

ROSEDALE

WHALEACH

BRIDGERIVER

NICOLA

KELLYLAKE

100 M ILEHOUSE

SODACREEK

BARLOW

WILLISTON

GLENANNAN

TELKWA

SKEENA

PRINCE RUPERT

KITM AT

KEM ANO

SAVONA

M ICA

REVELSTOKE

ASHTONCREEK

SELKIRK CRANBROOK

INVERM ERE

NATAL


LANGDON

JANETSARCEE

REDDEER

BENALTO

BRAZ EAU


W. BROOKS

WAREJTN.

JENNER

EM PRESS

SHEERNESS

EAST EDM ONTON

CLOVERBAR

LAM OUREUX

DEERLAND

WHITEFISHLAKE

M ARGUERITELAKE

RUTH LAKE

M ITSUE

N. CALDER

N. BARRHEAD

LITTLESM OKY

LOUISECREEK

SAGITAWAH

WABAM UN

SUNDANCE

M CKINLEY

P.E.G.S.

AM BROSIAWESTM ESA

B-A

NORTON

OJO

TAOS

BLACKWATER

ARTESIAAM RAD

CALIENTENEWM AN

ARROYO

DIABLO

LUNA

HIDALGO

LEUPP

EL CENTRO

KENNEDY

PEACE CANYON

PEACE RIVER

BATTLE RIVER

M ETISKOW

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METI S644

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METI S644

Significant S-N Congestion

20


June 12, 2008 hr 12$4 Gas

NELWAY

BRIDGER

COLSTRIP

GOSHEN

BORAH

KINPORT

M IDPOINT

SUM M ERLAKE

M ALIN

CAPTJACK

M ERIDIAN

ALVEY

ALLSTON

KEELER

PEARL

ROUNDM T

OLINDA

JOHN DAY

M ARION

LANE

GRIZZ LY

BUCKLEY

THEDALLES

OSTRANDER SLATT

M cNARY(1169 M W)

BOARDM AN

PAUL /CENTRALIA

RAVER

M ONROE

CUSTER

ECHOLAKE


SCHULTZ

HANFORD

ASHE

VANTAGE

LOWM ON

LITGOOSE

LOWGRANITE

TAFT

GARRISON

DWORSHAK

TOWNSENDBROADVIEW

BELL

DIXONVILLE

BENLOM OND

NAUGHTON

ANACONDA

ATLANTICCITY

ROCKSPRINGS

M ONUM ENT

M USTANG

SPENCE

BILLINGS

YELLOWTAIL

CUSTER

GREATFALLS

OVANDO

HOTSPRINGS

CABGORGE

NOXON

LOLO

HELLSCANYON

ROUNDUP

OXBOW

BROWNLEE

BOISE

ENTERPRISE

WALLAWALLA

LAGRANDE

HATWAI

M OSCOW

BENEWAH

RIVERTON

BUFFALO

OREGONBASIN

THERM OPOLIS

WYODAK

CASPER

SHERIDAN

PLATTE

DAVE JOHNSTON

M ILES CITYDC TIE

GRANTSPASS

COPCO

LONEPINE

ROSS

ONTARIO

CALDWELL

BURNS

WANETA

BOUNDARY

VACA-DIXON

TRACY

TESLA

TABLEM T

LOSBANOS

M OSSLANDING

TERM INAL

M ONA

FOUR CORNERS

90SOUTH

CAM PWILLIAM S

BONANZA

HUNTINGTON

SIGURD

IPP

GONDER

HARRYALLEN


AUSTIN

PAVANT

HUNTER

SYLM AR

ADELANTO

GLENCANYON

VALM Y(562 M W)

HUM BOLDT

TRACY

VALLEYROAD

CROSS-OVER

AM PS

JEFFERSON

DILLONPETERSON

FLATS

DRUM

WEEDJCT

CASCADE

RESTON

OLYM PIA

INGLEDOW

ROCKYREACH

M IDWAY

LIBBY

HUNGRY HORSE

CRAIG

SAN JUAN

HAYDEN

LARAM IERIVER

ARCHER

AULT

RIFLE

M ONTROSE

PINTO

CURECANTI PONCHA

SIDNEY

STORY

L E G E N D:

500KV

+-500KVDC

345KV

230KV

115-161KV

LANGE

WESTHILL

STEGAL

COM ANCHE

M IDWAY

DANIELS PARKM ALTA

SM OKY HILL

PAWNEE(530 M W)

VALM ONT

DILLON

BEAVER

WARNERHILL TOP

BORDERTOWN

REDBUTTE

FLAM INGGORGE

TREASURETON

K-FALLSCO GEN

BOYLE

NLE W ISTON

DIABLO

GATES

M IDWAY

RINALDI

VINCENT

VICTORVILLE

LUGO

M IRALOM ASERRANO

VALLEY

DEVERS


M OJAVE

EL DORADO

M CCULLOUGH

M EAD

M ARKETPLACE

NAVAJO

M OENKOPI

YAVAPAI

TABLE M ESA

PALO VERDE

WESTWING

FLAGSTAFF

PINNACLE PEAK

CHOLLA

NORTH GILA LIBERTY

KYRENE SILVERKING

CORONADO

SOUTH

BICKNELLVAIL

GREENLEE

SPRINGERVILLE

SAGUARO

TORTOLITA

PARKER

PRESCOTT

ROUNDVALLEY

SELIGM ANDAVIS

CAM INO

EAGLEM T.

BLYTHE

KNOB

GILATIJUANA

M ETROPOLIJUAREZ

LOM AS

CIPRES

LAROSITA

SAN LUIS

M EXICALI

INTERGENSEM PRA

M ERIDIAN

CHEEKYE

M ALASPINA

DUNSM UIR

SAHTLAM

GOLD RIVER

ARNOTT

CLAYBURN

ROSEDALE

WHALEACH

BRIDGERIVER

NICOLA

KELLYLAKE

100 M ILEHOUSE

SODACREEK

BARLOW

WILLISTON

GLENANNAN

TELKWA

SKEENA

PRINCE RUPERT

KITM AT

KEM ANO

SAVONA

M ICA

REVELSTOKE

ASHTONCREEK

SELKIRK CRANBROOK

INVERM ERE

NATAL


LANGDON

JANETSARCEE

REDDEER

BENALTO

BRAZ EAU


W. BROOKS

WAREJTN.

JENNER

EM PRESS

SHEERNESS

EAST EDM ONTON

CLOVERBAR

LAM OUREUX

DEERLAND

WHITEFISHLAKE

M ARGUERITELAKE

RUTH LAKE

M ITSUE

N. CALDER

N. BARRHEAD

LITTLESM OKY

LOUISECREEK

SAGITAWAH

WABAM UN

SUNDANCE

M CKINLEY

P.E.G.S.

AM BROSIAWESTM ESA

B-A

NORTON

OJO

TAOS

BLACKWATER

ARTESIAAM RAD

CALIENTENEWM AN

ARROYO

DIABLO

LUNA

HIDALGO

LEUPP

EL CENTRO

KENNEDY

PEACE CANYON

PEACE RIVER

BATTLE RIVER

M ETISKOW

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METI S644

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METI S644


21


June 12, 2008 hr 15$4 Gas

NELWAY

BRIDGER

COLSTRIP

GOSHEN

BORAH

KINPORT

M IDPOINT

SUM M ERLAKE

M ALIN

CAPTJACK

M ERIDIAN

ALVEY

ALLSTON

KEELER

PEARL

ROUNDM T

OLINDA

JOHN DAY

M ARION

LANE

GRIZZ LY

BUCKLEY

THEDALLES

OSTRANDER SLATT

M cNARY(1169 M W)

BOARDM AN

PAUL /CENTRALIA

RAVER

M ONROE

CUSTER

ECHOLAKE


SCHULTZ

HANFORD

ASHE

VANTAGE

LOWM ON

LITGOOSE

LOWGRANITE

TAFT

GARRISON

DWORSHAK

TOWNSENDBROADVIEW

BELL

DIXONVILLE

BENLOM OND

NAUGHTON

ANACONDA

ATLANTICCITY

ROCKSPRINGS

M ONUM ENT

M USTANG

SPENCE

BILLINGS

YELLOWTAIL

CUSTER

GREATFALLS

OVANDO

HOTSPRINGS

CABGORGE

NOXON

LOLO

HELLSCANYON

ROUNDUP

OXBOW

BROWNLEE

BOISE

ENTERPRISE

WALLAWALLA

LAGRANDE

HATWAI

M OSCOW

BENEWAH

RIVERTON

BUFFALO

OREGONBASIN

THERM OPOLIS

WYODAK

CASPER

SHERIDAN

PLATTE

DAVE JOHNSTON

M ILES CITYDC TIE

GRANTSPASS

COPCO

LONEPINE

ROSS

ONTARIO

CALDWELL

BURNS

WANETA

BOUNDARY

VACA-DIXON

TRACY

TESLA

TABLEM T

LOSBANOS

M OSSLANDING

TERM INAL

M ONA

FOUR CORNERS

90SOUTH

CAM PWILLIAM S

BONANZA

HUNTINGTON

SIGURD

IPP

GONDER

HARRYALLEN


AUSTIN

PAVANT

HUNTER

SYLM AR

ADELANTO

GLENCANYON

VALM Y(562 M W)

HUM BOLDT

TRACY

VALLEYROAD

CROSS-OVER

AM PS

JEFFERSON

DILLONPETERSON

FLATS

DRUM

WEEDJCT

CASCADE

RESTON

OLYM PIA

INGLEDOW

ROCKYREACH

M IDWAY

LIBBY

HUNGRY HORSE

CRAIG

SAN JUAN

HAYDEN

LARAM IERIVER

ARCHER

AULT

RIFLE

M ONTROSE

PINTO

CURECANTI PONCHA

SIDNEY

STORY

L E G E N D:

500KV

+-500KVDC

345KV

230KV

115-161KV

LANGE

WESTHILL

STEGAL

COM ANCHE

M IDWAY

DANIELS PARKM ALTA

SM OKY HILL

PAWNEE(530 M W)

VALM ONT

DILLON

BEAVER

WARNERHILL TOP

BORDERTOWN

REDBUTTE

FLAM INGGORGE

TREASURETON

K-FALLSCO GEN

BOYLE

NLE W ISTON

DIABLO

GATES

M IDWAY

RINALDI

VINCENT

VICTORVILLE

LUGO

M IRALOM ASERRANO

VALLEY

DEVERS


M OJAVE

EL DORADO

M CCULLOUGH

M EAD

M ARKETPLACE

NAVAJO

M OENKOPI

YAVAPAI

TABLE M ESA

PALO VERDE

WESTWING

FLAGSTAFF

PINNACLE PEAK

CHOLLA

NORTH GILA LIBERTY

KYRENE SILVERKING

CORONADO

SOUTH

BICKNELLVAIL

GREENLEE

SPRINGERVILLE

SAGUARO

TORTOLITA

PARKER

PRESCOTT

ROUNDVALLEY

SELIGM ANDAVIS

CAM INO

EAGLEM T.

BLYTHE

KNOB

GILATIJUANA

M ETROPOLIJUAREZ

LOM AS

CIPRES

LAROSITA

SAN LUIS

M EXICALI

INTERGENSEM PRA

M ERIDIAN

CHEEKYE

M ALASPINA

DUNSM UIR

SAHTLAM

GOLD RIVER

ARNOTT

CLAYBURN

ROSEDALE

WHALEACH

BRIDGERIVER

NICOLA

KELLYLAKE

100 M ILEHOUSE

SODACREEK

BARLOW

WILLISTON

GLENANNAN

TELKWA

SKEENA

PRINCE RUPERT

KITM AT

KEM ANO

SAVONA

M ICA

REVELSTOKE

ASHTONCREEK

SELKIRK CRANBROOK

INVERM ERE

NATAL


LANGDON

JANETSARCEE

REDDEER

BENALTO

BRAZ EAU


W. BROOKS

WAREJTN.

JENNER

EM PRESS

SHEERNESS

EAST EDM ONTON

CLOVERBAR

LAM OUREUX

DEERLAND

WHITEFISHLAKE

M ARGUERITELAKE

RUTH LAKE

M ITSUE

N. CALDER

N. BARRHEAD

LITTLESM OKY

LOUISECREEK

SAGITAWAH

WABAM UN

SUNDANCE

M CKINLEY

P.E.G.S.

AM BROSIAWESTM ESA

B-A

NORTON

OJO

TAOS

BLACKWATER

ARTESIAAM RAD

CALIENTENEWM AN

ARROYO

DIABLO

LUNA

HIDALGO

LEUPP

EL CENTRO

KENNEDY

PEACE CANYON

PEACE RIVER

BATTLE RIVER

M ETISKOW

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METI S644

LEUPP

ELCENTRO

KDY 5CX3

PCN500

GMS500

BAT RV79

METI S644


22


Key RM Transmission Constraints$4 gas, 2008 loads, base wind

Interface Location

[Direction]

Forward limit

(MW)

Reverse limit

(MW)

Opportunity cost of next

MW

% hours congested

Idaho to Montana E. Idaho to W. Montana [S – N]

337 337 $28,324 5%

TOT 2C S. Utah to S.E. Nevada [N – S]

300 300 $11,706 15%

Bridger West S.W. Wyoming to S.E. Idaho & to Northwest [E – W]

2,200 N/A $10,749 19%

IPP DC C. Utah to S. California [NE – SW]

1,920 300 $10,141 72%

TOT 3 S.E. Wyoming to N.E. Colorado [N – S]

1,424 N/A $5,649 8%

SW Wyoming to Bonanza*

S.W. Wyoming to E. Utah [N – S]

200 200 $2,590 3%

* $4 Gas- H load- $26,325; 12%

23


NELWAY

BRIDGER(2240 M W)

COLSTRIP(2280 M W)

GOSHEN

BORAH

KINPORT

M IDPOINT

TAFT

GARRISON

DWORSHAK(476 M W)

TOWNSENDBROADVIEW

BELL

BENLOM OND

NAUGHTON(723 M W)

ANACONDA

ATLANTICCITY

ROCKSPRINGS

M ONUM ENT

M USTANG

SPENCE

B R ID G ERW EST

T O T 4A

W EST O FB R O AD VIEW

BILLINGS

YELLOWTAIL

CUSTER

GREATFALLS

OVANDO

HOTSPRINGS

CABGORGE

(230 M W)NOXON

(561 M W)

LOLO

HELLSCANYON(450 M W)

OXBOW(220 M W)

BROWNLEE(730 M W)

BOISE

HATWAI

M OSCOW

BENEWAH

RIVERTON

BUFFALO

OREGONBASIN

THERM OPOLIS

WYODAK(375 M W)

CASPER

SHERIDAN

PLATTE

DAVE JOHNSTON(830 M W)

M ILES CITYDC TIE

CALDWELL

WANETA

B O R AHW EST

TERM INAL

M ONA

FOUR CORNERS(2060 M W)

90SOUTHCAM P

WILLIAM S

BONANZ A(425 M W)

HUNTINGTON(894 M W)

SIGURD

IPP(1800 M W)

GONDER

HARRYALLEN

M ACHACEK

PAVANTHUNTER

(1341 M W)

TO ADELANTO GLENCANYON

HUM BOLDT

M O NT AN A T ON O R T H W EST

CROSS-OVER

W EST O FC R O SSO VER

AM PS

ID AHO -M O NT AN A

JEFFERSON

DILLONPETERSON

FLATS

ID AHO -S IER R A

B R O W N LEEEAST

T O T 4B

B O N AN ZAW EST

IPPD C

PAVAN T -G O N D ER &IPP-G O ND ER

IPP -M O NA

IPP-G O N D ER

LIBBY(632 M W)

HUNGRY HORSE(322 M W)

W EST O FH AT W AI

COLO

MONTANA

W YOIDAHO

UTAH

PAT H C

CRAIG(1224 M W)

SAN JUAN(1798 M W)

HAYDEN(488 M W)

LARAM IERIVER

ARCHER

AULT

RIFLE

M ONTROSE

PINTO

CURECANTI

T O T2C

T O T2B

T O T2A

T O T1A

PONCHA

T O T3

SIDNEY

STORY

L E G E N D:

500KV

+-500KVDC

345KV

230KV

115-161KV

LANGE

WESTHILL

STEGAL

COM ANCHE(725 M W)

M IDWAY

DANIELS PARKM ALTA

SM OKY HILL

PAWNEE(530 M W)

VALM ONT

DILLON

REDBUTTE

SO UT H O FYELLO W T AIL

T O T 7

M O NT AN A T OW YO M IN G

SW W YO M IN GT O B O N ANZA

FLAM INGGORGE

TREASURETON

W EST O FC O LST R IP

M T - SE

NLE W IS TO N

Lamar

T O T 5

Falcon

T O T2B 2

T O T2B 1

W Y-LR S

B H -LR S

B H -W Y

B H -B HB

N to SU taH

Key Transmission Constraints$4 gas, 2008 loads, base case wind

Top Congested Paths

24


Western Interconnect Impact for 2008$4 gas, 2008 loads, high wind

Interface limitation

Annual VOM ($000)

Delta from Base

Annual VOM ($000)

Annual average LMP

Delta from base annual average

LMP

Load ($/MW)

Generator ($/MW)

Load ($/MW)

Generator ($/MW)

Base Case 13,683,646 37.97 37.24

All interfaces unconstrained

13,562,347 (121,299) 38.09 38.08 .12 .84

Only internal RM interfaces are unconstrained

13,642,615 (41,031) 38.01 37.41 .04 .17

Only top 5 congested interfaces are unconstrained

13,691,688 (8,042) 38.03 37.41 .06 .17

Evaluation of PotentialSolutions

26


Idaho to Montana ($4 gas, 2008 loads, base case wind)Potential solution

Potential Solution• Added phase shifter at

Peterson Flats to Amps

Results• System-wide “VOM” cost

decreases by ~$5 million in 2008

• Decreases binding congestion to 1% from 5% of the time

• Path loading increases by 1,673 MWh

2008 System

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-800 -650 -500 -350 -200 -50 100 250 400

MW

Fre

qu

en

cy

(#

hrs

in a

ye

ar)

Potential Line Loading(w/ phase shifter)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-800 -650 -500 -350 -200 -50 100 250 400

MW

Fre

qu

en

cy

(#

hrs

in a

ye

ar)

1,102,119 MWh

1,103,792 MWh

5%

1%

S N

S N

BEFORE

AFTER

27


IPP DC ($4 gas, 2008 loads, base case wind)Potential solution

Potential Solution• Increased line rating by 500

MW NE to SW (Forward limit ~ 2400 MW)

Results• System wide “VOM” cost

decreases by ~$4.6 million

• Line loading increases by 2,863,577 MWh

• Decreases binding congestion to 57% from 72% of the time

2008 System

0

1500

3000

4500

6000

0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400

MW

Fre

qu

en

cy

(#

hrs

in a

ye

ar)

Potential Line Loading(w/ 400 MW upgrade )

0

2000

4000

6000

0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400

MW

Fre

qu

en

cy

(#

hrs

in a

ye

ar)

14,952,799 MWh

17,816,376 MWh

72%

57%

NE SW

NE SW

BEFORE

AFTER

28


SW Wyoming to Bonanza ($4 gas, 2008 loads, base case wind)Potential solution

Potential Solution• Increased line rating by 100 MW

(increase line limit to 300 MW from 200MW); this can be accomplished by adding a transformer and possibly line compensation.

Results• System wide cost decreases by

~$4.3 million; hydro model does not allow hydro redispatch.

• Line loading increases by 7,170 MWh

• Alleviates binding congestion, which now occur 3% of the time

2008 System

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

-350 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350

MW

Fre

qu

en

cy

(#

hrs

in a

ye

ar)

Potential Line Loading(w/ 100 MW upgrade)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

-350 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350

MW

Fre

qu

en

cy

(#

hrs

in a

ye

ar)

902,434 MWh

909,604 MWh

3%

N S

N S

BEFORE

AFTER

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“DRAFT” RMATS 2008 Base Case (To be presented at the RMATS Stakeholders Meeting) March 17, 2004.

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