A  Comparative  Study  of  Privatized  Military  Firms  and  U.S.  Military  Forces  In  Iraq  –    Basrah  &  Thi-­‐Qar  

Debbie  Smith      *  P.W.  Singer  –  “Corporate  Warriors:  The  Rise  of  the  Privatized  military  Industry  and  Its  RamiAications  for  International  Security”      

Question:  From  2004-­‐2009,  were  PMFs  more  or  less  effective  than  U.S.  Military  Forces  at  deterring  incidences  of    insurgent  attacks  (IEDs)  in  Iraq,  speciAically  Basrah  and  Thi-­‐Qar?      Hypothesis:  PMFs  more  effective  than  U.S.  Military  Forces  due  to  4  conditions    Cases:  Iraq  -­‐  Basrah  &  Thi-­‐Qar  (2004-­‐2009)  

Prior  Research    P.W.  Singer  &  PMFs  

•  Privatized  Military  Firms  (PMFs):  “proAit-­‐driven  organizations  that  provide  professional  services  linked  to  warfare”    

•  Potential  effects  of  PMFs  on  the  future  of  IR:  •  Contractual  dilemmas  between  client  &  PMFs  •  Marketization  &  changes  in  the  balance  of  power  •  Adds  alternative  actors  into  policymaking  process    

•  BUT  all  depends  on  the  type  of  PMF  

From  2004-­‐2009,  were  PMFs  more  or  less  effective  than  U.S.  Military  Forces  at  deterring  incidences  of    insurgent  attacks  (IEDs)  in  Iraq,  speciAically  Basrah  and  Thi-­‐Qar?      •  Hypothesis:  PMFs  were  more  effective  than  U.S.  Military  Forces  due  to:  d  

•  Competition  within  global  market  &  proAit-­‐driven  •  Recruit  speciAically  for  operations  &  provide  specialized,  prerequisite  training  

•  Ability  to  utilize  corporate  Ainancing  •  Existence  of  legal  loopholes  

 Sources:      P.W.  Singer  -­‐  “Corporate  Warriors:  The  Rise  of  the  Privatized  military  Industry  and  Its  RamiAications  for  International  Security”                                                

Regions  of  Iraq  &  IED  attacks  

Variables:    •  Incidences  of  IEDs    (2004  –  2009)  

•  Population    •  Ethnic  makeup  •  Presence  of  PMF  vs  U.S.  Military  Forces  

Data:  Iraq  War  Logs  -­‐  provide  GPS  coordinates  of  IEDs  in  Iraq  from  2004  –  2009  

Matched  Study:    •  Basrah  •  Thi-­‐Qar    

Method  

Basrah  &  Thi-­‐Qar  

Sources:        UNHCR  Governorate  Assessment  Report  (2006)                                              Iraq  War  Logs  

Region   Population  (2006)  

Sunni   Shiite   Kurdish   Other   U.S.  Military  Forces   PMFs  

Basrah   1.8  million   Y   Y  *  

Thi-­‐Qar   1.5  million   Y   Y  

IED  Attacks  in  Basrah  &  Thi-­‐Qar    01/2004  –  12/2009  

Security  responsibility  shifted  over  to  Iraqi  Security  Forces  (ISF):    d  

*  Basrah  –  Dec.  2007    *  Thi-­‐Qar  –  Sept.  2006,  although  U.S.  Military  Forces  did  not  fully  withdraw  until  2011  

Tentative  Empirical  Conclusions,  Criticisms  &  Future  Research  •  Disproved  •  Surface  Level  Correlation:  With  presence  of  U.S.  Military  Forces,  we  see  lesser  incidences  of  IEDs  than  with  presence  of  PMFs    

•  *  Need  statistical  analysis  (signiAicance)    

•  Criticisms:  •  Potential  confounding  variables  in  matching    •  Lack  of  complete,  ofAicial  data    

•  Future  Research:    •  Combine  multiple  variables  (i.e.  HR  Abuses,  Economic  Development,  Coalition  Forces,  etc.)  

•  Compare  varying  types  of  PMFs  •  Cost-­‐efAiciency  analysis