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Dutch State Treasury Agency Investor presentation 10-year DDA on 10 March 2020 Dutch State Loan 2030 Latest update: 3 March 2020
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Page 1: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Dutch State Treasury Agency

Investor presentation10-year DDA on 10 March 2020

Dutch State Loan 2030

Latest update: 3 March 2020

Page 2: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Contents

Introduction and DDA details

Economic Outlook

Budgetary Outlook

Funding and Issuance

Liquidity and investor base2

4

9

16

18

25

Page 3: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Contents

Supplement I: Current government policy

Supplement II: The economy continued

Supplement III: The DDA explained

Supplement IV: Funding instruments

Supplement V: Policy Framework

3

35

40

54

61

66

Supplement VI: Green Bond70

Page 4: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

The Dutch Ministry of Finance

4

Minister

Secretary-General

Tax and

Customs Administration

T&C Policy

and LegislationBudget Treasury

DSTA

Central

Directorate

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 5: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

The Dutch State Treasury Agency

5

Agent

Cash Management, Issuance and Trading

Policy and Risk Management

Control, Accounting and Reporting

Treasury and Debt Operations

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 6: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

› Founded in 1841 in Amsterdam

› Moved to The Hague in 2009

› Part of the Ministry of Finance

› Autonomous decisions within a mandate:

– Compatibility: only the Finance Minister canborrow on behalf of the State

– Minister granted this mandate to the DSTA

› Main objective: to manage the State’s debtefficiently and effectively and to meet theState’s funding requirement by borrowing andlending money

The Dutch State Treasury Agency

6Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 7: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Details new 10-year Dutch State Loan

7

Details new DSL 2029

DDA date Tuesday 10 March 2020

Maturity date 15 July 2030 (short first coupon)

Reference bond DBR 0.00% 15 February 2030

Target volume € 4 - 6 billion

Pricing Aim to price on the auction day, but no later than 12:00 CET on 11 March 2020

Settlement date Two business days after pricing

Coupon To be announced on Friday 6 March 2020

Initial spread guidance To be announced on Monday 9 March 2020

Country ratings Aaa/AAA/AAA

Total fees € 13 million (incl. advisory fees) for 2 DDAs in 2020

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 8: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

› Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020

› Final spread guidance will be announced no later than 15:00 CET on the auction day

› Book closes at the latest 17:00 CET on theauction day

› Allocation communicated as soon as possible after closing the book; preferably on the auction day but no later than 09:00 CET the following

› Pricing from 30 minutes after allocation and preferably on the auction day itself; but no later than 12:00 CET the following business day

Time schedule 10-year DDA

8Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 9: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Economic Outlook

Page 10: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Key economic figures 2018-2020 (% change, y-o-y)

Projections: strong economic performance

10

2018 2019 2020

GDP growth 2.6 1.7 1.4

Household consumption 2.3 1.4 1.9

Government consumption 1.6 1.2 2.5

Investments (incl. inventories) 2.2 4.6 0.4

Exports 3.7 2.6 2.7

Imports 3.3 3.2 3.3

Unemployment (% of labour force) 3.8 3.4 3.2

Inflation (HICP) 1.6 2.7 1.6

Source: CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), Forecast March 2020 (www.cpb.nl)

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 11: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Broad-based economic growth

11

Source: CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), Forecast March 2020 (www.cpb.nl)

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Household spending Government spending Business Investment Exports Housing Investment GDP growth

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 12: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Dutch GDP growth stands out positively

12

GDP growth (% y-o-y)

Source: European Commission (EC) economic forecast autumn, November 2019

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020

Netherlands Germany Belgium United Kingdom Eurozone

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 13: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Strong current account surplus

13

Current account balance 2020 (% of GDP)

Source: EC economic forecast autumn, November 2019

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 14: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Risks to the outlook

14

› EU/UK trade negotiations

– Transition period runs until 31 December 2020. A 2-year extension can be granted once if mutually agreed prior to 1 July 2020, but this seems unlikely

– The IMF estimates a long-run reduction in output of 0.7% with a standard free trade agreement and a 1.0% reduction should the EU and the UK default to WTO rules

› Underutilization of government budget

– 2019 saw a 1,4% underutilization of the government budget, mainly due to labor market constraints and to a lesser extent due to the nitrogen-crisis. An underspending of €4,0 billion (1,3% of budget) is estimated this year, which results in a reduction of 0,5% GDP growth

› Protectionism

– While a relatively small share of Dutch exports goes to the United States, the largest proponent of trade restrictions over the last few years, flow on effects of decreased world trade could impact GDP growth.

– Trade is becoming more and more a geopolitical weapon, leaving The Netherlands, as a traditional trading nation, exposed

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 15: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Strong fundamentals and policies

15

› Brexit contingency measures are being taken

– Contingency plans include increased personnel for border security to ensure relatively smooth trading should increased border checks become reality

› The Netherlands is among the most competitive countries in the world

– Strong competitive position (no. 4 WEF) puts The Netherlands in a healthy place to cope with decreased trading activity

› Strong public finances leave the government with a comfortable buffer should risks materialize

› Households have a strong net asset position

– Pension assets are the highest in the world

› Government policies address concerns around housing market

– Reduction of interest rate deductibility

– Obligatory repayment of mortgage within 30 years

– Reduced Loan-to-value ratio (100%)

– Government announced plans in September 2019 to invest 2 billion euros to increase supply in the housing market

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 16: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Budgetary Outlook

Page 17: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Public finances show strong improvement

17

EMU-debt and EMU-balance over 2015-2020

Source: Ministry of Finance, September 2019

-2.5%

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

EMU-debt (% GDP; LHS) EMU-balance (% GDP; RHS)

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 18: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Funding and Issuance

Page 19: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Debt outstanding

19

Key figures at the end of January 2020

Instrument (€ bn)

DSL (T-bonds)275.5

DTC (T-bills)15.3

Commercial Paper 3.6

Private loans0.4

Cash0.6

Cash collateral10.9

Total debt outstanding306.3

Source: DSTA, Monthly Report

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 20: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

DSL redemption profile

20

Redemptions of DSLs, position at the end of February 2020 (€ bn)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047

10-years 5-years 7-years 20-years 30-years

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 21: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Strong public finances result in a more modest funding requirement

21Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

€ -

€ 20

€ 40

€ 60

€ 80

€ 100

€ 120

€ 140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Funding requirement (billions)

Funding requirement

Page 22: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Borrowing requirement 2020

22

Borrowing requirement 2020 (€ bn)

Capital market redemptions 2020 29.9

Money market ultimo 2019 (excl. cash collateral) 14.3

Cash balance 2020* -1.5

Total 42.7

Source: DSTA, Update borrowing requirement for 2020, January 2020

* A cash surplus is shown as a negative number because it decreases the total borrowing requirement

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 23: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Funding in 2020

23

Source: DSTA, Update borrowing requirement for 2020, January 2020

Funding 2020 (€ bn)

Capital market issuance (DSLs) in nominal terms 21-26

Money market ultimo 2020 16-18

Total 42.7

• Money market is primary buffer

• Some flexiblity on capital market

• Target range as announced in Outlook 2020

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 24: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Issuance in 2020

24

Source: DSTA

Total DSL funding (€ bn)

DSL Indicative (€bn) Realised (€bn)

New 10-year DSL 2030 12 -

Reopening 20-year Green Bond 2 1.37

New 30-year DSL 4 -

Off the runs 3 - 8 1.50

Total DSL funding 21 - 26 2.87

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 25: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Liquidity and investor base

Page 26: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

› Annual issuance of a new 10-year bond; andclarity at start of the year on other benchmark issuances (shorter-dated bonds, longer-datedbonds)

› Raising the outstanding amount of the 10-year bond to size of around € 12 bn within 1 yearof issuance

› Quotation obligation for Primary Dealers toensure tradable prices to be available at alltimes

› Repo facility available to Primary Dealers (‘lender of last resort’)

Secondary market turnover per maturity bucket (€ bn.)

Ensuring sufficient liquidity in secondary markets

26Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 -1 > 1 - 3 > 3 - 5 > 5 - 7 > 7 - 10 > 10 - 15 > 15

2017 (Q1 - Q3) 2018 (Q1 - Q3) 2019 (Q1 - Q3)

Source: DSTA Secondary Market Trade Reports, 1 November 2019.

Page 27: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Dutch yield spreads attractive vs German bund

27

Yields of Nether Jul2029 versus DBR Aug2029 (in bps)

Source: Bloomberg

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10-7-2019 10-8-2019 10-9-2019 10-10-2019 10-11-2019 10-12-2019 10-1-2020

NETHER 0.25 07/15/2029 DBR 0.0 08/15/2029

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 28: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Tight interdealer bid/offer spreads

28

Tightest interdealer bid/offer spread of Nether Jul2029 (in cents)

Source: DSTA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2019-02-14 2019-03-28 2019-05-14 2019-06-4 2019-08-06 2019-09-17 2019-10-29 2019-12-10 2020-01-31

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 29: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

QE and DSLs

29

› ECB actively buys net securities under their current policy and is also reinvesting maturing securities that have been bought under the APP

› As of the end of December 2019, the ECB holds approximately € 114.8 bn of Dutch paper (sovereign and agencies) under theprogramme

› Next to DSLs, ECB can buy bonds from three other Dutch agencies:

– Bank Nederlandse Gemeenten N.V. (BNG)

– Nederlandse Waterschapsbank N.V. (NWB)

– Nederlandse Financieringsmaatschappijvoor Ontwikkelingslanden N.V. (FMO)

› Average maturity of Dutch debt held by ECB was 7.2 years at end of December 2019

› Dutch Central Bank (DNB) has a securities lending facility

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 30: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Holdings of DSLs

30

Holdings of Dutch government securities (€ mln), Q3 2019

Source: Dutch Central Bank (DNB), December 2019

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019

Banks Pension funds and investment funds Insurers Dutch Central Bank (DNB) Other Foreign investors

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 31: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Holdings of DSLs per maturity segment

31

Domestic sector holdings (% of outstanding debt in the specific segments), Q3 2019

Source: Dutch Central Bank (DNB), December 2019

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0-2 years 2-5 years 5-10 years >10 years

Banks Pension funds and investment funds Insurers

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 32: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Diversified investor base: 10-year DSL Dutch Direct Auctions 2011-2019

32

Source: DSTA, 2019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Asset Liability Management Asset Management Bank & Trusts Central Bank Hedge Fund Insurance Company

Other Trading Desk Pension Fund Private Bank Supranational Fund Manager

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 33: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Diversified investor base: 10-year DSL Dutch Direct Auctions 2011-2019

33

Geographical breakdown of primary issuance

Source: DSTA, 2019

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 34: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Reasons to buyDSL 2030

› Strong economy: 1.3% GDP growthprojected for 2020, steady growinghousing market and low unemployment

› Solid budget: Budget surplus, andEMU-debt level below 60% GDP. Solid reputation of consensus-based fiscaldiscipline

› Liquidity: commitment to raiseoutstanding amount of bond to a sizeof around €12 bn within one year of issuance

› Tradability: Continuous availability of secondary market prices

› Highly rated issuer (Aaa/AAA/AAA): only triple A rated EMU sovereign withan attractive yield compared toGermany

34

Page 35: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Current Government Policy

Supplement I

35

Page 36: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

› Government of Rutte (III) took office on 26 October 2017

› Long-standing tradition of ‘trend-based’ budgetary policy government expenditure levels are determined at the beginning of the government term, are fixed and cannot be exceededduring the government term

› Specific investments are in the field of defense, education, security, environment, infrastructure and elderly care

› The government plans contribute to the continued strong economic outlook for theNetherlands

› Elections are scheduled for March 2021

Present political situation

36Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 37: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Governmental plans

37

Housing market

› Accelerated reduction of the mortgage interest deduction: in steps of 3% per year to the base rate

› Maximum LTV for new mortgages down to 100%

› Government announced plans in September 2019 to invest 2 billion euros to increase supply in the housing market

Pensions/retirement

› New pension agreement, more suited to the current era, has been agreed on 5 June 2019 by government and social partners

› Retirement age increased to 67+ from 2024 onwards (initial plans called for 2021)

Investment fund

› The Dutch Minister of Finance is currently working out the details of an investment fund to safeguard the economic growth of the Netherlands in the future

Labour market

› Lower tax rates on labour (and higher rate on consumption)

› Institutional changes to reduce labour market segmentation; increase attractiveness foremployers to offer fixed contracts.

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 38: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

The pension System

38

› New pension agreement, more suited to the current era, has been agreed on 5 June 2019 by government and social partners

› The rise in pension age will be slower than initially proposed by the government, but is linked to life expectancy, which will make the pension system more sustainable

› Pension funds are seeing lower coverage ratios due to the lower interest rates

› Sustained lower interest rates can result in cuts in pensions/ increased contributions in 2021. This is a risk to the outlook for consumption

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 39: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Fiscal spending

39

› The Dutch Minister of Finance is considering an investment fund to safeguard future economic growth of the Dutch economy

› The specifics of the fund are currently worked out by a working group in the Ministry of Finance

› The Minister has since clarified the Dutch State will not pre-fund any investment projects on the capital market

› The DSTA therefore does not envisage a large, immediate, increase in funding due to these plans

› In the long term this specific fund should be supportive for the Dutch economy and its growth potential

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 40: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

The economy continued

Supplement II

40

Page 41: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Housing market recovery

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

41

Transactions and prices %-change (y-o-y)

Source: CBS, December 2019

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Transactions (LHS) Prices (RHS)

Page 42: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Regional divergence in housing prices

42

Housing prices in different provinces (%-change y-o-y)

Source: CBS, December 2019

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Netherlands Noord-Holland (PV) Zeeland (PV)

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 43: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Labour market strength

43

Source: CBS, December 2019

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Job Growth all industries (thousands; y-o-y, LHS) Unemployment (%Labour force, RHS)

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 44: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Unemployment is low and projected to remain relatively low

44

Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted data (% of labour force)

Source: Eurostat, November 2019

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%

Greece

Spain

Italy

France

Euro area

Sweden

Finland

Belgium

Ireland

Denmark

Austria

Netherlands

Germany

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 45: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Households have strong asset position

45

Households assets and liabilities (% of GDP)

Source: Ministry of Finance, September 2018

0

200

400

600

2000 2010 2017

Other assets

Deposits

Housing assets

Pension assets

0

200

400

600

Net assets

Other liabilities

Mortgages

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 46: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Pension assets internationally

46

International pension assets in 2018 (% of GDP)

Source: Willis Towers Watson, Global Pension Asset Study, February 2019

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%

Netherlands

Australia

Switzerland

US

UK

Canada

Japan

South Africa

Ireland

Hong Kong

Germany

Brazil

France

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 47: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Pension funds

47

Pension fund coverage ratios

Source: Dutch Central Bank (DNB), December 2019 Source: CBS, July 2018

Pension fund holdings at the end of 2017

66%

27%

3%3%

Direct real estate Stocks and other equity Debt instruments

Financial derivatives Long term loans Other investments

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2010 2011 2012 20132014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 48: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Export breakdown by product category

48

Export breakdown by product category, January - November 2019

Source: CBS, December 2019

13%

5%

13%

17%8%

29%

12%

Food and live animals

Beverages and tobacco

Crude materials, inedible

Mineral fuels, lubricants

Animal and vegetable oils, fats and wax

Chemicals and related products

Manufactured goods classified

Machinery and transport equipment

Miscellaneous manufactured articles

Commodities and transactions not classifiedelsewhere

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 49: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Export breakdown by country

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Share of exports: EU and non EU (% of total), January – November 2019

Source: CBS, December 2019

Rank Country Share

1 Germany 22.2%

2 Belgium 10.1%

3 United Kingdom 7.8%

4 France 7.8%

5 USA 5.2%

6 Italy 4.0%

7 Spain 3.1%

8 Poland 2.6%

9 China 2.5%

10 Sweden 1.9%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

EU Non-EU

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 50: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Among the most competitive countries worldwide

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Top 15 countries on the WEF Competitiveness Index

Source: World Economic Forum, 2019 Rankings

Rank Country

1 Singapore

2 United States

3 Hong Kong SAR

4 Netherlands

5 Switzerland

6 Japan

7 Germany

8 Sweden

9 United Kingdom

10 Denmark

11 Finland

12 Taiwan, China

13 Korea, Rep

14 Canada

15 France

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 51: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

GDP per capita among the highest in Europe

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Real GDP per capita (PPS, 2018, index)

Source: Eurostat, August 2019

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Norway

Netherlands

Austria

Denmark

Sweden

Germany

Euro area

United Kingdom

France

EU

Italy

Spain

Portugal

Greece

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 52: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

GDP on the rise

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%-change, year-on-year

Source: CBS, December 2019

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 53: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

• During the credit crisis in 2008 the State had to intervene in the financial sector to maintain financialstability of our economy. As a result, several financial institutions have been nationalized of whichABN Amro and insurer ASR (2008) and later on bank-insurer SNS REAAL (2013).

› In the past few years, the Dutch State gradually reduced its stakes in these financial institutions. This resulted in privatization of the insurance and real estate part of SNS REAAL (respect. in July 2015 and September 2016), and a completed privatization of ASR (ended in September 2017).

› The remaining stakes are:

– ABN Amro: remaining 56% stake (current market value ≈ € 8.8 bn) will be sold in coming years

– Volksbank (former banking part of SNS REAAL) – no decision yet on privatization

Financial sector interventions

53Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 54: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

The DDA explained

Supplement III

54

Page 55: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

› Rule-based auction all investors receive equal treatment

› Primary auction with direct participation of end-investors

› A single uniform price winner’s curse avoided

› Bids can be placed via Primary Dealer(s) of choice and orders can be split via several dealers

› There is no pot in the DDA: Primary Dealers receive a total of € 13,000,000 including advisory fees for their performance over the two

DDA’s in 2020.

› The DSTA is the sole book runner

– Level playing field among all Primary Dealers

– Confidential participation of investors

› PDs must sign a DDA Allocation and Price Compliance Statement as indicated in the General Conditions for PDs

(https://english.dsta.nl/subjects/d/dealers)

The DDA rules can be found on our website: www.english.dsta.nl/ddarules

A short overview

55Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 56: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

› Bids are placed at increments of 0.5 bps to the reference bond or ‘at best’

› Maximum bid of € 300 million per spread point per investor (per investor type)

› An investor may split orders among Primary Dealers up to the maximum allowed(€ 300 million per spread)

› Investors can submit both € 300 million at ‘at best’ and € 300 million at the tightest spread point

› Bids ‘at best’ are at all times treated as if their spread is equal to the tightest spread

› Investors that operate from multiple locations (e.g. US and UK offices) will only be allowed to bid from one location per investor type.

Bidding

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Page 57: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Focus on Real money accounts

› Allocation: Real money accounts receive priority at the cut-off spread

Safeguarding instant liquidity

› DSTA reserves the right to raise theallocation to ‘Other accounts’ up to35% of the total allocated amount

Investor classification

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Real money accounts Other accounts

Asset and Fund managers Hedge funds

Central banks, agencies, and supranationals

All accounts of banks, except treasury / ALM accounts and private banks

Insurance companies Other trading desks

Pension funds

Private banks

Treasuries / ALM accounts of banks

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 58: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Details

Mechanics of allocation: an example

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Transaction

Spread 17 to 18 bp

Target size € 4 - 6 bn

Book size € 10.5 bn

Spread At best 17 17.5 18

Real money 1500 1000 1500 1500

Other 1000 2000 1000 1000

Total 2500 3000 2500 2500

Cumulative 5500 8000 10500

Order book

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 59: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Order book

Mechanics of allocation – scenario 1

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Allocation

Spread At best 17 17.5 18

Real money 1500 1000 1500 1500

Other 1000 2000 1000 1000

Total 2500 3000 2500 2500

Cumulative 5500 8000 10500

Spread At best 17 17.5 18

Real money 1500 1000 500 0

Other 1000 2000 0 0

Total 2500 3000 500 0

Cumulative 5500 6000

Allocated amount: € 6000

Uniform cut off: +17.5

Allocation at cut-off:Real Money 33 %Other 0 %

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 60: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Order book

Mechanics of allocation – scenario 2

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Allocation

Spread At best 17 17.5 18

Real money 1500 1000 1500 1500

Other 1000 2000 1000 1000

Total 2500 3000 2500 2500

Cumulative 5500 8000 10500

Spread At best 17 17.5 18

Real money 1500 1000 0 0

Other 833 1667 0 0

Total 2333 2667 0 0

Cumulative 5000 0

Allocated amount: € 5000

Uniform cut off: +17

Allocation at cut-off:Real Money 100 %Other 83 %

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 61: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Funding instruments

Supplement IV

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Page 62: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Dutch State Loans (T-bonds)

› Focus on issuance in EUR

› Maturities: annual issuance of 10-year DSL; additional focus on shorter end and longer end of thecurve (up to 30 year segment)

› Auctions on fixed dates: 2nd and if needed on 4th Tuesday of the month

› Quarterly issuance calendars (Q1 2020, released 13 December 2019)

› Dutch Direct Auctions for new medium and longer-dated DSLs

› Benchmark sizes to ensure liquidity

› Buy-backs for cash management purposes (up to 24 months remaining maturity)

Funding instruments: the capital market

62Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 63: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Dutch Treasury Certificates (T-bills)

› Maturities: 3 to 6 months

› Auctions: twice a month on the 1st and 3rd Monday

Commercial Paper (CP)

› USCP (SEC Rule 144A compliant) and ECP

› Maturities up to 1 year (focus on 3-28 dayssegment)

› In EUR, USD, GBP, CHF and NOK

› No auctions, dependent on cash needs

› Foreign currencies fully hedged

Deposits (“Cash”)

› Borrowing short term; large amounts ifnecessary

› Lending: unsecured and secured (reverse repo: buy-sell-back)

› Also in USD (borrowing)

Funding instruments: the money market

63Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 64: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

› Transparency: calendars, press releases, website

› Consistency: no surprises, live up to commitments

› Liquidity

– Minimum outstanding volumes of bonds

– Quotation obligations for PDs

– Repo facility for PDs

Funding strategy

64Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 65: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Primary Dealer group for 2020

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ABN AMRO Barclays Citigroup

Goldman Sachs HSBC France ING Bank

Jefferies Natixis NatWest Markets

Nomura Nordea Rabobank

Société Générale

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 66: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Policy framework

Supplement V

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Page 67: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

› Designing the framework is mainly about the optimal funding strategy and the optimal trade-off between costs and risks

› In the past the Framework was evaluated every four years

› Recommendations from this evalution lead to changes to the framework

› In 2020 a new framework has come into force for a period of 6 years.

› There will be an evaluation of the risk indicators every two years in order to be able to respondquicker to market circumstances

Policy framework

67Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 68: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

The two risk indicators from the previous framework will be maintained

› The average maturity will be increased further, towards 8 years

– Lock in low rates

– Contribute to budget stabilization

– Follow market appetite

› The 12-month refixing amount will be capped at 30% of debt years

– Healthy budget and lower debt levels -> higher capacity to bear risk

– The rise in the refixing amount follows from the composition of the swap portfolio: mainly payer swaps are set to expire in the years ahead

Policy Framework 2020-2025

68Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 69: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Average maturity debt portfolio 2020+

69

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

First internalevaluation

? 6-8 yr

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 70: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Green Bond

Supplement VI

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Page 71: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

On 21 May 2019 the State of The Netherlands issued its inaugural green bond.

› DSTA felt the issuance of the Green bond was appropriate as it was embedded in wider government policy as well as the agenda for the financial sector:

– Netherlands Energy Agreement in 2013

– Climate ambition in Coalition Agreement 2017

– National climate and energy was agreed by lower house in 2018 and signed into law June 2019

› Agenda financial sector: encouraging the sector

– More attention in supervision

– Active contribution of financial sector

– Attention for ESG criteria

The Green DSL

71Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 72: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Motivations for issuance of Green Bond.

› Practise what you preach: Minister of Finance concluded after extensive study that issuance of a green bond is feasible and desirable.

› Further support of the green finance market: introducing a solid asset class to this market as well as adding critical mass

› Set an example: provide other borrowers with a best practice green bond framework which can beused as guidance for future issuance

The Green DSL

72Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 73: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

1. DSTA Use of proceeds

2. Process for expenditure evaluation & selection

– Interdepartmental working group to conduct annual evaluation

3. Management of Proceeds

– Eligible Green Expenditures will be monitored via the National Financial Annual Report. DSTA intends to allocate at least 50% of the proceeds to expenditures in the budget year of issuance of future budget years.

4. Allocation & Impact Reporting will occur until full allocation

5. External Reviews

Overview of the Green Bond Framework

73

Renewable Energy

Clean Transportation

Energy Efficiency

Climate Change Adaptation & Sustainable Water Management

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 74: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Expenditures to support the development of renewable energy generation capacity. Currently this encompasses solar energy and onshore and offshore wind energy

Expenditures for the improvement of energy efficiency in the built environment, the public-, commercial- and industrial sector.

Expenditures for the development, maintenance and management of railway infrastructure relating to upgrading trajectories for higher-frequency passenger rail travel, railway capacity management, bicycle parking space at rail stations, and linkages to other modes of public transportation

Expenditures under the Dutch Delta Programme to ensure flood risk management, freshwater supply, and spatial planning will be climate-proof and water-resilient reinforcing flood defences, monitoring and management of water levels, water distribution and related measures to anticipate on higher (fresh) water levels

Definition of Eligible Green Expenditures

74

Renewable Energy

Clean Transportation

Energy Efficiency

Climate Change Adaptation &

Sustainable Water Management

Which SDG Annual

expenditure

€ 652 mn

€ 130 mn

€ 1960 mn

€ 1042 mn

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 75: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Anticipated Impact Indicators

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Eligible Green Expenditures Result indicators Environmental impact indicators

Renewable Energy

• Stimulation of Sustainable Energy Production (SDE)

• Number of projects• Number of projects split per

renewable energy technology• Total subsidized renewable

energy capacity (in MW)

• Actual annual energy production (in MWh)

• Annual Greenhouse Gas emission avoidance (in CO2 equivalent)

Energy Efficiency

• Energy savings in the rental housing sector

• Number of applications• Number of houses upgraded for

energy performance

• Annual energy savings (in MWh)• Annual Greenhouse Gas emission

reduction (in CO2 equivalent)

Clean Transportation

• Maintenance and management of railway infrastructure

• Development of railway infrastructure for passenger rail

• Realised projects (case studies)• KM of infrastructure maintained

• Annual passenger train kilometres

Climate Change Adaptation & Sustainable Water Management

• Deltafonds

• KM and percentage of dykes reinforced to a safe level

• Number and % of flood defences reinforced to safe level

• Availability of flood defences (%)• Reduction of flood risk / frequency

Investor presentation - 10-year DDA

Page 76: Dutch State Treasury Agencypresentation+DSL+2030.pdf · Investor presentation - 10-year DDA › Book opens 10:00 CET on Tuesday 10 March 2020 › Final spread guidance will be announced

Contact details

english.dsta.nl

[email protected]

Twitter: @dsta_nl

Bloomberg: DSTA07 <GO>

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