Earthquake ForecastingInteroperability

GGF17 Grid Interoperability Session

Tokyo Japan

May 11 2006

Geoffrey FoxComputer Science, Informatics, Physics

Pervasive Technology Laboratories

Indiana University Bloomington IN 47401

http://grids.ucs.indiana.edu/ptliupages/presentations/gcf@indiana.edu http://www.infomall.org

APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation ACES is a seven year-long collaboration among scientists

interested in earthquake and tsunami predication

• Primary goal predicting event occurrence; other related work discusses consequences of event (Earthquake Engineering)

• http://www.quakes.uq.edu.au/ACES/

Chartered under APEC – the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation of 21 economies

100 Years After the San Francisco Earthquake

It is now known that the M ~ 7.9 San Francisco earthquake and fire of April 18, 1906 killed more than 3000 persons. Estimates are that if such an event were to happen again today, damages could easily total well in excess of $500 Billion, with potential fatalities of many thousands of lives.

Ruins of financial district (Museum of San Francisco collection)

More than 100 researchers in earthquake physics and computational science participated in this workshop from around the world.

Participating Institutions CSIRO Australia Monash University Australia University of Western Australia, Perth,

Australia University of Queensland Australia

University of Western Ontario Canada University of British Columbia Canada

China National Grid Chinese Academy of Sciences China Earthquake Administration China Earthquake Network Center

Brown University Boston University Jet Propulsion Laboratory Cal State Fullerton San Diego State University

UC Davis UC Irvine UC San Diego University of Southern California University of Minnesota Florida State University US Geological Survey Pacific Tsunami Warning Center PTWC

Hawaii

National Central University, Taiwan (Taiwan Chelungpu-fault Drilling Project)

University of Tokyo Tokyo Institute of Technology (Titech) Sophia University National Research Institute for Earth

Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) Japan

Geographical Survey Institute, Japan

Historical Tsunami Epicenters

In its first seven years, ACES has:

Enhanced international cooperation and understandingStimulated new computational science and technologyLaid the foundations for a the new field of earthquake

simulationsEstablished earthquake science that is analytical and

predictiverather than simply descriptive & observational

In its second five years, ACES must:Exploit inevitable “data deluge” and detailed simulations

across micro to macro scalesDevelop a series of science-based hazard mitigation productsCentralize the role of information technology with cross

economy infrastructureExpand the membership to include other economiesSupport integrated science and products of public

interest across the member economies

iSERVO International Solid Earth Research Observatory(synergy with other sciences!)

1992 Landers, California Earthquake

(Courtesy H. Zebker, Stanford)

Deformation in the Eastern Mojave Shear Zone

(Courtesy G. Peltzer, UCLA)

Role of Space TechnologySynthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) can detect changes (both large and small) in surface deformation of the earth’s crust over synoptic scales.

At present we are limited to isolated, static images.

Role of Information Technology and Grids in ACES

Numerical simulations of physical, biological and social systems

Engineering designEconomic analysis and planningSensor networks and sensor websHigh performance computingData mining and pattern analysisDistance collaborationDistance learningPublic outreach and educationEmergency response communication and planningGeographic Information SystemsResource allocation and management

Background: Earthquake Forecast – Published Feb 19, 2002, in PNAS.

( JB Rundle et al., PNAS, v99, Supl 1, 2514-2521, Feb 19, 2002; KF Tiampo et al., Europhys. Lett., 60, 481-487, 2002; JB Rundle et al.,Rev. Geophys. Space Phys., 41(4), DOI 10.1029/2003RG000135 ,2003. http://quakesim.jpl.nasa.gov )Color Scale Decision Threshold

D.T. => “false alarms” vs. “failures to predict”

CL#

03-2

015

Plot of Log10 (Seismic Potential)Increase in Potential for significant events, ~ 2000

to 2010

Eighteen significant earthquakes (M > 4.9; blue circles) have occurred in Central or Southern California. Margin of error of the anomalies is +/- 11 km; Data from S. CA. and N. CA catalogs:

After the work was completed 1. Big Bear I, M = 5.1, Feb 10, 2001 2. Coso, M = 5.1, July 17, 2001After the paper was in press ( September 1, 2001 ) 3. Anza I, M = 5.1, Oct 31, 2001After the paper was published ( February 19, 2002 ) 4. Baja, M = 5.7, Feb 22, 2002 5. Gilroy, M=4.9 - 5.1, May 13, 2002 6. Big Bear II, M=5.4, Feb 22, 2003 7. San Simeon, M = 6.5, Dec 22, 2003 8. San Clemente Island, M = 5.2, June 15, 2004 9. Bodie I, M=5.5, Sept. 18, 2004 10. Bodie II, M=5.4, Sept. 18, 2004 11. Parkfield I, M = 6.0, Sept. 28, 2004 12. Parkfield II, M = 5.2, Sept. 29, 2004 13. Arvin, M = 5.0, Sept. 29, 2004 14. Parkfield III, M = 5.0, Sept. 30, 2004 15. Wheeler Ridge, M = 5.2, April 16, 2005 16. Anza II, M = 5.2, June 12, 2005 17. Yucaipa, M = 4.9 - 5.2, June 16, 2005 18. Obsidian Butte, M = 5.1, Sept. 2, 2005

6 ≤ M5 ≤ M ≤ 6

Status of World Forecast - Jan 1, 2000 ~2010Circles are events M > 7 since Jan 1, 2000

Interoperability Summary Need to define common infrastructure and domain specific standards

• Not too many “historical” constraints; could adopt GT4, OMII, ……• Build Interoperable Infrastructure gatewayed to existing legacy

applications and Grids Generic Middleware

• Grid software including workflow• Portals/Problem Solving environments incl. visualization• We need to ensure that we can make security, job submission, portal, data

access (sharing) mechanisms in different economies interoperate Geographic Information Systems GIS

• Use services as defined by Open Geospatial Consortium (Web Map and Feature Services) http://www.crisisgrid.net/

Earthquake/Tsunami Science Specific• Satellites, sensors (GPS, Seismic)• Fault, Tsunami … Characteristics stored in databases

QuakeTables developed by SERVOGrid can be used Internationally

GONET Hi-net K-NET

Database for ModelConstruction

Plate Motion

Platform for Integrated SimulationData Processing, Visualization, Linear Solvers

Simulation Output

PC clusters for small-intermediate problemsEarth Simulator for large-scale problems

GIS UrbanInformation

Tectonic Loading EarthquakeRupture

Structure OscillationWave Propagation

Tsunami Generation

Earthquake Generation

Strong Motion and Tsunami Generation

JST-CREST Integrated Predictive Simulation System

Artificial Structure OscillationCrustal Movement

Data AnalysisSeismic Activity

Data AnalysisStrong MotionData Analysis

Country

and/or

Economies

Data (shared

as part of acollaboration)

Earthquake

Forecast/Model

Wave

Motion

Infrastructure

Institutions

Australia Seismic data, fault database, GPS

Finley, LSM

PANDAS

prototype Access

Canada Polaris Radarsat Pattern Informatics

P.R. China Seismic GPS LURR CAS China National Grid

Japan GPS

Seismic

Daichi (InSAR)

GeoFEM JST-CREST Earth Simulator

Naregi

ChineseTaipei

FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F/C)

U.S.A. QuakeTables

Sesismic

InSAR

PBO (GPS)

Pattern Informatics

ALLCAL

GeoFEST, PARK,

VirtualCalifornia

TeraShake SERVOGrid

GEON

SCECGrid

Vlab

International IMS Pacific Rim Universities

(APRU ) PRAGMA

ACES Components

Japanese Earthquake Simulation Grid

Integrated Integrated Observation-SimulationObservation-Simulation

Data GridData Grid

PC ClusterERI,

64xOpteronparaAVS

Data-ServerGSI

8xOpteron20TB

Data-ServerNIED

48xG5, 15TB

PC ClusterEPS,

64xOpteronparaAVS

Super SINET (10Gbps)

Earth Simulator5,120xSX6

Current PTWC Network of Seismic Stations

(from GSN & USNSN & Other Contributing Networks)

Tokyo

Forecasting Shallow Earthquake Locations in Japan(<20 km Depth)

Tokyo Area, Japan. JMA Catalog is used. (K. Nanjo, JBR, J Holliday, DLTurcotte, 2004).

Image at right was shown during lectures at Kyoto University October 13, 2004 and at Tokyo University, October 14, 2004.

Copies are available from Professor James Mori, Kyoto U. or Professor Mitsuhiro Matsu’ura, Tokyo U.

The October 23, 2004, M = 6.8 Niigata, Japan earthquake killed at least 37 people and injured thousands. Its main shock and principal aftershocks with M 5 are shown (arrow).

Figure by by K. Nanjo

6 ≤ M5 ≤ M ≤ 6

Plot of Log10 (Seismic Potential)Forecast for the period: January 1, 2000 ~

December 31, 2010.