ECMUN 2018INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

President’s Letter

Honorable Delegates,

Welcome to the Earlham College Model United Nations Conference 2018. We are excited that you have decided to participate in ECMUN’s UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

My name is Kitty Nguyen and I am excited to chair IPCC with Smirthy. I’m an international student from Hanoi, Vietnam. I am a sophomore Politics major who is also interested in Computer Science. I’ve had a lot of experience with Model UN while in Vietnam. In my experience, I have chaired ECOSOC, UN Woman and the Security Council. This is only my second year working with ECMUN: last year, I’ve had the pleasure of chairing the General Assembly I had a wonderful time with the committee. In addition to that, I am currently the General Secretary for the club. Coming from a country that’s heavily affected by climate change, I am honored to have a change to chair IPCC. Through this experience, I hope to gain a better understanding of different stances and approach on Climate Changes.

My name is Smirthy Ganesan and I thrill to be a part of MUN this year, especially with IPCC. I am also an International student and I came from Thanjavur, India. Currently, I’m a Junior with a major in Bio-Chemistry. I’ve had a great time chairing for previous MUN conference; thus, I’m happy to be chairing again. I am super eager to participate alongside my co-chair, Kitty, since I experience Model UN differently with different people. I hope that all of us have a great conference and most importantly, have fun!

We are both looking forward to working with you this year on Climate Change. IPCC was created as a response to the environment’s cry for help and economic consequence that follow. I hope your ECMUN experience will be a fun and educational experience that helps you develop your soft skill set like: communication, ability to work with other, fast thinking, and exposure to international policy challenges. We encourage you to acquaint yourself with diplomatic procedure before-hand as well as do research on the committee topics thoroughly. Please contact us if you have any questions or concerns about ECMUN or the committee.

Kind regards,

Kitty Nguyen (khnguyen16@earlham.edu)Smirthy Ganesan (sganes15@earlham.edu)

Committee Background

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change. It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic impacts. The initial task for the IPCC as outlined in UN General Assembly Resolution 43/53 of 6 December 1988 was to prepare a comprehensive review and recommendations with respect to the state of knowledge of the science of climate change; the social and economic impact of climate change, and possible response strategies and elements for inclusion in a possible future international convention on climate. Currently 195 countries are Members of the IPCC. Governments participate in the review process and the plenary Sessions, where main decisions about the IPCC work programme are taken and reports are accepted, adopted and approved. The IPCC Bureau Members, including the Chair, are also elected during the plenary Sessions. Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work of the IPCC. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure an objective and complete assessment of current information. The first IPCC Assessment Report was published in 1990; The IPCC Second Assessment Report was published 5 years later: 1995; The Third Assessment Report came out in 2001 and the Fourth in 2007. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was released in four parts between September 2013 and November 2014. The Sixth Assessment Report is expected to be finalized in 2022. The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle. During this cycle, the Panel will produce three Special Reports, a Methodology Report on national greenhouse gas inventories and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Topic I: Sustainable Agriculture

Overview

The goal of sustainable agriculture is to meet society’s food and textile needs in the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. There are many practices commonly used by people working in sustainable agriculture and sustainable food systems. Growers may use methods to promote soil health, minimize water use, and lower pollution levels on the farm. Consumers and retailers concerned with sustainability can look for “values-based” foods that are grown using methods promoting farmworker wellbeing, that are environmentally friendly, or that strengthen the local economy.However, sustainable agriculture is more than a collection of practices. It is also process of negotiation: a push and pull between the sometimes-competing interests of an individual farmer or of people in a community as they work to solve complex problems about how we grow our food and fiber.

Historical Background:

Agriculture has changed dramatically, especially since the end of World War II. Food and fiber productivity soared due to the invention of new technologies, the usage of mechanization, and increased chemical use, specialization. The government also help by introducing policies that favored maximizing production. These changes allowed people to produce more, and thus, enable agriculture to feed more people. Especially with the number of population increasing and the number of farmer decreasing.Although these changes have had many positive effects and reduced many risks in farming, there have also been significant costs. Some of the consequence of sustainable agriculture are: topsoil depletion, groundwater contamination, the decline of family farms, continued neglect of the living and working conditions for farm laborers, increasing costs of production, and the disintegration of economic and social conditions in rural communities, etc. A growing movement has emerged during the past two decades to question the role of the agricultural establishment in promoting practices that contribute to these social problems. Currently, this movement for sustainable agriculture is garnering increasing support and acceptance within mainstream agriculture. Not only does sustainable agriculture address many environmental and social concerns, but it offers innovative and economically viable opportunities for growers, laborers, consumers, policymakers and many others in the entire food system.

Current Situation:

Climate change is affecting crop yields. Maize and wheat yields have taken a hit in some of the world’s most important breadbaskets. For example, in China maize production has decreased by 7 percent and wheat yields in Russia have plummeted by 14 percent. It is also affecting prices. Seasonal climate extremes mean major crops like wheat and maize have failed to yield expected

results. When this happens, food prices, as the outcome, rise. When this happened, many people all over the world would be affect; the most being people in Africa and South Asia. This is because poor people in these regions spent the majority on food while people from developed country don’t spent as much. For example: Malawi spend nearly 78 percent of their income on food, while poor in the US, spend just 21 percent. The good news is Farmers are already adapting to climate change by changing their planting dates, adjusting marketing arrangement, and using different kinds of crops. However, these efforts have not been able to keep up with dramatic climate change and more systematic modification is needed. It’s critical to adapt crops, livestock and fisheries. Farmers might need to switch to new varieties or crops that are more tolerant to heat, drought or salinity. Livestock keepers will need to think about the rise of new diseases affecting their cattle and crops. Fishers might need to restore degraded breeding sites like mangroves to maintain fish populations. Thus, we need major revolutions in how we eat and farm to cope with the changing climate. This might include changing what we eat or shifting the way we use entire areas of land.

Questions to Consider: What changes can we do to promote a more sustainable life style? How to aid countries with failing crops How will these changes affect the global economy?

Resources: Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Program

o http://asi.ucdavis.edu/programs/sarep/about/what-is-sustainable-agriculture Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

o http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

o https://www.c2es.org/content/ipcc-fifth-assessment-report/

Topic II: Hurricane preparedness and response:

Overview:

Hurricanes are a form of tropical cyclones that are capable of causing devastating damage to communities. Hurricanes are storm systems with circulating air and sustained wind speeds of 74 miles per hour or higher. The strongest hurricanes can have wind speeds exceeding 155 miles per hour.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 31 March 2014 issued a report saying the effects of climate change are already occurring on all continents and across the oceans. The world, in many cases, is ill-prepared for risks from a changing climate. The report also concludes that there are opportunities to respond to such risks, though the risks will be difficult to manage with high levels of warming.

Historical Background:

The science summed up in the new IPCC report shows that since the 1950s there have been clear changes in many types of extreme events. Some of this is new, but some of it was summarized in a special report on extreme events the IPCC published in 2012. We’ve experienced more hot days and heat waves, fewer cold nights, and an increase in the intensity and number of heavy rainfall events, as an image from Chapter 2 of the report shows:

On hurricanes, climate models predict it is more likely than not – meaning that there is over a 50 per cent chance – that the number of the most intense storms will increase in certain parts of the world. Globally, however, the IPCC says it’s likely the number of tropical cyclones will “either decrease or remain essentially unchanged”. It’s hard to make predictions about these types of storms as the processes involved occur on much smaller scales than climate models can currently replicate.

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory warns that Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC mid-range scenario). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.

There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very intense tropical cyclones globally–an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones. However, there is at present only low confidence that such an increase in very intense storms will occur in the Atlantic basin.

Current Situation:

Climate change is now affecting every country on every continent. It is disrupting national economies and affecting lives, costing people, communities and countries.People are experiencing the significant impacts of climate change, which include changing weather patterns, rising sea level, and more extreme weather events. Due to climate change, many of the recent natural disasters have increased in magnitude and impact. For example, hurricane Irma caused catastrophic damage in Barbuda, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, Anguilla, and the Virgin Islands as a Category 5 hurricane. As of October 10, the hurricane has caused at least 134 deaths. Preliminary estimates place the amount of damage that Hurricane Irma caused in the US at a minimum of $50 billion. Hurricane Maria hit Dominica last month, and the category-5 storm made landfall on 18 September, thrashing the country with extreme winds and rain. It left people without electricity and water, destroyed homes and health clinics and isolated communities on the mountainous island. The UN and its partners recently launched an appeal for $31.1 million to reach over 90 per cent of Dominicans – some 65,000 people – in the next three months. Prior to the event, aging infrastructure across the island makes the grid more susceptible to damage from storms; the median age of PREPA power plants is 44 years. Inadequate safety also plagues the company and local newspapers frequently describe poor maintenance and outdated controls.

Questions to Consider:

Has the effort by the IPCC been able to catch up with the dramatic environmental changes?

How to bring more country into this discussion? How do we better prepare and/or prevent hurricane disaster? Is the need for aid or the need for prevention more crucial?

Resources:

Global Warming and Hurricanes:o https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes official website:o http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.shtmlo http://www.ipcc-data.org/

UN Enviroment:o http://www.unenvironment.org/

Topic III: Sustainable Energy: Nuclear Energy and its Uses

Overview:

Until about 30 years ago, energy sustainability was thought of merely in terms of accessibility relative to the rate of use. But at the moment, in the context of the ethical framework of sustainable development, including particularly concerns about global warming, other aspects are also very important. These contain environmental effects and the question of wastes, even if they have no environmental effect. Generally, 'renewable' relates to harnessing energy from natural forces which are renewed by natural processes; for example: wind, waves, sun and rain, heat from the Earth's crust and mantle... And though it shares many attributes with technologies harnessing these natural forces – for instance radioactive decay produces much of the heat harnessed geothermally – nuclear power is usually categorized separately from ‘renewables’. Conventional nuclear power reactors do use a mineral fuel and demonstrably deplete the available resources of that fuel.

Historical Background:

In 1990, The IPCC releases its First Assessment Report in which, notably, nuclear power is the only option included among both short-term and medium/long-term non-fossil and low-emission energy sources for electricity generation.

In 1995, The IPCC’s Second Assessment Report noted that nuclear power development had been slowing due to capital costs and concerns about safety from the public. Still, it had high hope for nuclear generated energy to replace fossil fuel.

In 2001, The IPCC’s Third Assessment Report conveys serious reluctant about the economics of building new nuclear plants. Concerns on where or how to dispose of nuclear wastes is also a rising issues among professional. Still, hope for nuclear energy remains, solely based on the argument that technology will be developed to reuse this chemical.

In 2007, The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report put nuclear power as “an effective [greenhouse gas] mitigation option.” However, the western hemisphere was moving away from nuclear power as it prevails mostly in Asia.

In 2011, between assessment reports, the IPCC publishes a special report, "Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation." While nuclear is included as an option in “the most optimistic scenario," it is portrayed as one to be minimized, along with fossil fuels.

In 2014, The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report slams down enthusiasm about renewable energy. Nuclear is once again grouped with renewable energy as the key elements of a low-carbon energy system, along with carbon dioxide capture and storage.

Current Situation:

It’s projected that the world population is going to increase for decades to come. And with the rate of technological growth we are experiencing, the demand for energy is going to be even greater. However, there are disagreements on whether or not we should distribute generation base on strong trend or continue using the grid system. Much demand is for continuous, reliable supply of electricity on a large scale, and this qualitative consideration will continue to dominate. There is abundant coal in many parts of the world, but with the constraints imposed by concern about global warming, it is likely that this will increasingly be seen as chemical feedstock and its large-scale use for electricity production will be scaled down.Meanwhile, fuel for nuclear power is abundant, and uranium is even available from sea water at costs which would have little impact on electricity prices. Furthermore, if well-proven but currently uneconomic fast neutron reactor technology is used, or thorium becomes a nuclear fuel, the supply is almost limitless.Wastes, however, are a major concern. Nuclear waste cannot readily be destroyed or denatured, this generally means that they need to be removed and isolated from the biosphere. This also cause a problem regarding where will the waste be stored. One possible solution involves deep geological repositories; however, no country has yet disposed of any spent fuel or high-level waste in such a repository because of public and political opposition. Nuclear power is a mature technology with 434 nuclear reactors operating in 32 countries in 1999, with a total capacity of around 349GWe generating 2,398 TWh or some 16% of global electricity generation in 1999 (IAEA, 2000b). In general, the majority of current nuclear power plants worldwide are competitive on a marginal cost basis in a deregulated market environment. Whether or not nuclear power would be accepted in the market place depends on new capacities becoming economically competitive and on its ability to restore public confidence in its safe use.

Questions to Consider:

Is nuclear a sustainable source of energy? Can we utilize nuclear power without doing harm to the environment? If yes, how? What will the long-term consequence of using nuclear possibly be?

Resources:

World Nuclear: Sustainable energy

o http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/energy-and-the-environment/

sustainable-energy.aspx

IPCC: Reports Assessment Reports

o http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg3/index.php?idp=128

The Guardian: world must urgently switch to clean sources of energy

o https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/apr/12/ipcc-report-world-must-

switch-clean-sources-energy

Topic IV: Sea Level Rise

Overview:

Global mean sea level rise is caused by an increase in the volume of the global ocean. This in turn is caused by:

Warming the ocean (thermal expansion). Loss of ice by glaciers and ice sheets. Reduction of liquid water storage on land.

It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue for many centuries beyond 2100, with the amount of rise dependent on future emissions. Larger sea level rise could result from sustained mass loss by ice sheets, and some part of the mass loss might be irreversible.

Historical Contexts:

During deglaciation, as the result of the rapid melting of the British-Irish Sea, Fennoscandian, Laurentide, Barents-Kara, Patagonian, Innuitian ice sheets and parts of the Antarctic ice sheet around 19,000 and 8,000 calendar-years ago, sea level rose at extremely high rates.Since 1880, the ocean began to rise briskly, climbing a total of 210 mm (8.3 in) through 2009 causing extensive erosion worldwide and costing billions. Sea level rose by 6 cm during the 19th century and 19 cm in the 20th century. Evidence for this includes geological observations, the longest instrumental records and the observed rate of 20th century sea level rise. For example, geological observations indicate that during the last 2,000 years, sea level change was small, with an average rate of only 0.0–0.2 mm per year. This compares to an average rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm per year for the 20th century.

Current Situation:

In recent times, fresh water crises are becoming more common.

With climate change causing more extreme weather events, the Marshall Islands faces rising sea water levels and declining fresh water supplies. The 34 islands that make up the atoll nation are on average 3 to 4 meters above sea level and would be heavily inundated by a 1-metre rise in sea level.

Climate change has also put further stress on the already limited food supply. Eighty percent of people in the Solomon Islands live in rural areas and are prone to climate change impacts such as flooding, higher tides and more intense storms. Staple foods like the giant swamp taro (known as kakake) have declined during the increasingly wet conditions and salt water has inundated many garden plots.

Sea levels could rise nearly twice as much as previously predicted by the end of this century if carbon dioxide emissions continue unabated, an outcome that could devastate coastal communities around the globe. For an unmitigated future rise in emissions (RCP8.5), IPCC now expects between a half meter and a meter of sea-level rise by the end of this century. The best estimate here is 74 cm.

Questions to Consider: How could these problems be addressed?

Between aid and long-term prevention, which is more important?

How to raise awareness on the issue?

Resources: IPCC: Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level

o http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch5.html

Projections of sea level rise

o https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/unfccc/cop19/3_gregory13sbsta.pdf

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

o http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/#.UlvpNH_Ix8E

United Nations Conference Concludes with Call for Action to Restore Ocean Health,

Protect Marine Ecosystems through Stronger Partnerships

o https://www.un.org/press/en/2017/sea2056.doc.htm