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8/9/2019 ECOMIC OUTLOOK FOR U.S. COTTON 2010
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2010 Outlook in Brief
A Year for Recovery Economic growth projected to continue
Cotton demand improving
US acres and production reverse 3
years of decline
Further tightening in the balance sheet
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Key Assumptions
Farm & Trade Policy Generally assume current policies remain
in place during the timeframe of the
outlook For US, the 08 farm bill
India MSP and China import policy unchanged
General Economy International Monetary Fund released
projections in January
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Percent Change
8.710.0 9.7
4.33.9
-0.82.42.7
-2.5-4
-20
2
4
68
10
12
14
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
World US China
Economic Growth in 2010
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Con um n m n nd x
4
6
5 6 7 9
Low Con um Conf d nc
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Per ent nemployment
nemployment Remains High
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Billion Dollars
1,414
980
1,349
-400
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CBOs US Budget Deficit
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Cotton Demand
Yarn Values Improving Cotlook Yarn Inde up 2 % from year-ago
levels and % higher than Sep 08
Te tile Trade Up in Recent Months After peaking at $ billion in Jul 08, world
te tile e ports fell to $3 billion in May 0 Values in the low $ 0 billions in recent
months
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% Change in Mill Use
1.2 2.5
4.2
-12
-6
0
6
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
World Mill Use Rebounding
3% GDP
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% Change in Mill Use
7.06.0
-0.3
11.1
-12
-6
0
6
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
World Mill Use Rebounding
3% GDP
5% GDP
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% Change in Mill Use
-0.2-10.0
-12
-6
0
6
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
World Mill Use Rebounding
3% GDP
5% GDP
-1% GDP
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% Change in Mill Use
3.1 2.3
-12
-6
0
6
12
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
World Mill Use Rebounding
3% GDP
5% GDP
-1% GDP
4% GDP
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Million Bales
117.3114.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
WorldCotton Mill Use
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Cotton Mill Use (Mil Bales)
0 /08 08/0 0 /10 10/11
China 1. .0 .8 8.0
India 18. 1 . 18.8 1 .3
Pakistan 12.0 11. 12.1 12.
Other Intl 3 .8 33.1 33. 3 .0
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Million Bales
3.43.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
USCotton Mill Use
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Co on Fu u C n Lb
4
5
6
7
9
ug p No n F b p un u
9
P i En ou ging
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US Acreage Intentions
200 2010 %Change
Southeast 1,8 1 2,123 12.2
Mid-South 1, 2 1, 8.Southwest ,2 3 , 18 .1
West 2 312 2 .
All Upland ,008 , 1 10.1ELS 1 2 1 2 .
US Cotton ,1 10,0 3 10.3
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Million Bales
12.4
15.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
USCotton Production
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Million Tons
4.2
5.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
USCottonseedProduction
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Million Acres
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
China
04-07 08 09 10f
Intl Cotton Area
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Million Acres
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
China India
04-07 08 09 10f
Intl Cotton Area
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Million Acres
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
China India OtherN Hem
04-07 08 09 10f
Intl Cotton Area
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Million Acres
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
China India OtherN Hem S Hem
04-07 08 09 10f
Intl Cotton Area
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Million Bales
102.7
113.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Increased WorldProduction
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Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Cotton Imports
China
All Others
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Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Cotton Imports
China
All Others
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Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Cotton Imports
China
All Others
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Million Bales
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Cotton E ports
US
All Others
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Million Bales
11.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Cotton E ports
US
All Others
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Million Bales
12.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Cotton E ports
US
All Others
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World Balance Sheet*
08/0 0 /10 10/11 Change
Production 10 . 102. 113. 11.2
Mill Use 111.1 11 . 11 .3 2.
Trade 30.2 3 .2 3 . 1.
Stocks 0. 1. 0. -0.
* Unaccounted of -2.5 million bales
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US Balance Sheet
08/0 0 /10 10/11 Change
Production 12.8 12. 1 . 3.1
Mill Use 3. 3. 3. 0.0
E ports 13.3 11. 12.1 0.
Stocks .3 3. 3. 0.0
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Cents/Lb
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Nov-09
Cotton A Index
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Percent & Cents/Lb
43%
45%
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
Stocks-to-Use vs Price
AIndex
Stocks-to-Use
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Issues to Watch
US export pace and 0 /10 endingstocks
China and India production
Can consumer spending sustain
recovery?
US $ and commodity prices
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