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Econ 339X, Spring 2011 ECON 339X: Agricultural Marketing Chad Hart Assistant Professor [email protected] u 515-294-9911 John Lawrence Professor [email protected] u 515-294-7801
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Econ 339X, Spring 2011
ECON 339X:Agricultural Marketing
Chad HartAssistant [email protected]
John [email protected]
Econ 339X, Spring 2011
Planting Progress
Source: USDA - NASS
Econ 339X, Spring 2011
Planting Progress
Source: USDA - NASS
0
20
40
60
80
100
4/1 4/8 4/15 4/22 4/29 5/6 5/13 5/20 5/27 6/3
% P
lant
ed
Maximum since 1980 Minimum since 19802011 20105-yr Average (2006-2010)
Econ 339X, Spring 2011 Source: USDA - NASS
Econ 339X, Spring 2011
Crop Conditions
Source: USDA - NASS
Econ 339X, Spring 2011
Corn vs. Wheat(CME July 2011 futures)
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
3/25
/200
9
5/25
/200
9
7/25
/200
9
9/25
/200
9
11/2
5/20
09
1/25
/201
0
3/25
/201
0
5/25
/201
0
7/25
/201
0
9/25
/201
0
11/2
5/20
10
1/25
/201
1
3/25
/201
1
$ pe
r bus
hel
Corn Wheat
Econ 339X, Spring 2011
U.S. Corn Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011
Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 92.2
Yield (bu./acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 161.7
Production (mil. bu.) 12,092 13,092 12,447 13,537
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 675
Imports (mil. bu.) 14 8 20 20
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 13,729 14,774 14,175 14,232
Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,182 5,140 5,150 5,120
Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,709 4,568 5,000 5,000
Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,316 1,371 1,400 1,440
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,849 1,987 1,950 2,000
Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,056 13,066 13,500 13,560
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 675 672
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.06 3.55 5.40 ?.??
Econ 339X, Spring 2011
U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2008 2009 2010 2011
Area Planted (mil. acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 76.6
Yield (bu./acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 43.4
Production (mil. bu.) 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,268
Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 205 138 151 140
Imports (mil. bu.) 13 15 15 15
Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,185 3,512 3,495 3,423
Crush (mil. bu.) 1,662 1,752 1,650 1,650
Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 106 108 125 115
Exports (mil. bu.) 1,279 1,501 1,580 1,575
Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,047 3,361 3,355 3,340
Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 138 151 140 83
Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.97 9.59 11.50 ??.??
Econ 339X, Spring 2011
Thoughts for 2011 and BeyondGeneral economic conditions
Continued worldwide economic recovery is a major key for crop prices
Supply/demand concernsPlanting intentions vs. realizationsBiofuel growth and energy demandWill supply be able to keep pace with demand?
2010/11USDA
2011/12 Futures (4/25/11)
Corn $5.40 $6.65Soybeans $11.50 $13.40Wheat $5.60 $9.38
Econ 339X, Spring 2011
Corn Futures During Class
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
$ pe
r bus
hel
July Dec
Econ 339X, Spring 2011
Soy Futures During Class
12.00
12.50
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
15.00
$ pe
r bus
hel
July Nov
Econ 339X, Spring 2011
Class web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Classes/econ339/Spring2011/
