https://www.bot.or.th/English/MonetaryPolicy/EconomicConditions/PressRelease/Pages/default.aspx
Monetary Policy Group October 2019
Economic and Monetary Conditions September 2019
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
Content 1 Executive Summary 1
2 The Thai Economy 3
2.1 Supply 3 Agricultural sector Manufacturing sector Service sector Real Estate
2.2 Domestic Demand 6 Private consumption Private investment Fiscal position
2.3 The global economy and external sector 8 The global economy External sector Balance of payments
2.4 Monetary and financial conditions 10 Corporate financing Interest rates Exchange rates
2.5 Financial stability 12 Inflation Labor market External stability
3 Link to related statistics and contents 14
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
1
1. Executive Summary
In September 2019, the Thai economy continued to be on a decelerating trend. The value of merchandise exports continued to contract, consistent with the economic slowdown of trading partners. Manufacturing production and private investment indicators deteriorated. Private consumption indicators expanded at a similar pace compared with the previous month. Nonetheless, public spending rebounded from capital expenditures. The tourism sector also continued to expand mainly thanks to an increase in the number of Chinese and Indian tourists.
On the stability front, headline inflation edged lower on the back of falling energy prices and core inflation. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged; however, the number of employed persons continued to decrease. The current account registered a smaller surplus from trade balance. The capital and financial accounts posted a deficit from the asset position.
Details of the economic conditions are as follows: The value of merchandise exports dropped by 1.5 percent from the same period last year. Excluding
gold, the value of merchandise exports continued to contract for the eleventh consecutive month at 3.3 percent. This was a result of 1) the economic slowdown of trading partners; 2) the continued downturn in electronic cycle; and 3) the contraction of global crude oil prices. Nevertheless, the value of exports expanded in some categories, including automotive and parts, agro-manufacturing products, and electrical appliances, due to the low base effect and the benefits of substituting exports to the US and China, as well as the relocation of production base to Thailand.
Private investment indicators continued to deteriorate from the same period last year. Investment in machinery and equipment continued to decrease from imports of capital goods, domestic machinery sales, and the number of newly registered motor vehicles for investment. This partly reflected that businesses had sufficient production capacity to accommodate future demand. Meanwhile, investment in construction declined from permitted construction area in almost every purposes, consistent with subdued construction and real estate activities.
Private consumption indicators moderately expanded at a similar pace compared with the previous month, although the government launched the economic stimulus measures to support the purchasing power this month. Spending on services and semi-durable goods grew at a faster pace, offsetting softer growth of spending on non-durable goods and further contraction in spending on durable goods due to lower domestic vehicle sales. Softened spending was in line with weakening fundamental factors from continued contraction in non-farm income, lower consumer confidence, and financial institutions’ tightening of credit standards for auto-leasing loans after credit quality deteriorated. Manufacturing production consistently contracted following softer domestic and external demand.
Public spending, excluding transfers, slightly rebounded due to the central government’s capital expenditures for transportation projects. However, current expenditures fell from purchases on goods and services. Also, state enterprises’ capital expenditures contracted from the disbursement of the Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRTA) and PTT Public Company Limited (PTT).
The value of merchandise imports contracted by 4.5 percent from the same period last year. Excluding gold, the value of merchandise imports declined by 3.5 percent due to the contraction of 1) imports of raw materials and intermediate goods, particularly electronic parts consistent with lower
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
2
production and exports, and crude oil which contracted in both price and volume partly due to the oil refinery shutdown for maintenance and 2) imports of capital goods excluding aircrafts, ships, floating structures, and locomotive, particularly telecommunication equipment and machinery and electric generating sets, in line with private investment indicators. Nonetheless, imports of consumer goods rebounded partly due to the low base effect.
The number of foreign tourist arrivals accelerated to 10.1 percent compared with the same period last year. This was driven by 1) the low base effect from the tour boat incident in Phuket; 2) the exemption of the visa on arrival fee, encouraging more visitors from China, India, and Taiwan; and 3) the political unrest in Hong Kong, persuading some tourists to shift their destination to Thailand. Moreover, tourists from other Asian countries continued to grow such as Laos, Japan, and South Korea.
On the stability front, headline inflation was at 0.32 percent, decelerating from last month on the back of higher contraction in energy prices from the high base effect last year and the deceleration of core inflation following a decline in processed food prices. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was flat; however, the number of employed persons in all non-farm sectors continued to decrease. The current account surplus narrowed, attributed to the smaller trade balance surplus as a result of a decrease in the value of gold exports. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from the asset position due to investment in short-term debt securities in Japan by the Other Depository Corporations (ODCs) and outward foreign direct investment of Thai investors, particularly in the form of direct loans extended to affiliated companies.
Overall economic activities in the third quarter of 2019 were on the decelerating trend. The value of merchandise exports excluding gold which continued to contract had more impacts on domestic economic activities. Private consumption indicators grew at a slower pace in almost all categories. Consequently, manufacturing production and private investment indicators contracted. Only public spending and the tourism sector continued to expand well, partly due to the low base effect from the tour boat incident in Phuket last year. On the stability front, headline inflation declined on the back of lower domestic retail petroleum prices consistent with global crude oil prices, and the deceleration of core inflation. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate slightly increased from the previous quarter from a decline in the number of employed persons. The current account registered higher surplus attributed to trade balance due to an increase in gold exports and high contraction of merchandise imports value. The capital and financial accounts recorded a surplus from the liability position.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
3
2.1 Supply
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
MPI Classified by Export Share
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul
Export<30% 30%<Export<60% Export>60%
Sources: Office of Industrial Economics , calculated by Bank of Thailand
-2.0 %
-2.2%
-2.8 %
%MoM sa
Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)
Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Industrial Economics and seasonally adjusted by Bank of Thailand
(%YoY)Share2016R 2018
2018 2019
H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepP %MoM sa
Food & Beverages 1 . . . . . 1. 1. . .1 . Automotives 1 . . 11. . . 1. . . . . - Passenger Cars . 1 . 1 .1 1 . . . . . . . - Commercial Vehicles .2 1 . 12.1 . . .2 .1 . . 2.1- Engine 1. . 1 . .2 2. . . .1 1. 2. Petroleum . . . 2. 1.2 . . .2 11.2 . Chemicals .2 . . 2. . 1. 1. . . . Rubbers & Plastics . 1.2 .2 2.1 .1 .2 . . 12.2 . Cement & Construction . . . . . 1. .2 . 2. . IC & Semiconductors . 2. . . 2. . 12. 1 .2 . 2. Electrical Appliances . . . .1 2. . 1. .1 .2 1. Textiles & Apparels . 2. . . . . . 1 .2 . 1. Hard Disk Drive . 2. 12. . 1 .2 1 . . 1 . . 1 . Others 1 . . 1. 1. .1 . . . .1 1. MPI 1 . . . 2. 1.2 2. .2 . . 2. MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod
1 . 2. . 2. . 2. . 2.
Capacity Utilization (SA)
. . . . . . . .
Farm income expanded at a similar pace compared with the previous month, mainly owing to the expansion in agricultural prices. Manufacturing production continued to contract from the same period last year in almost all categories, consistent with softer domestic and external demands. Meanwhile, services sector expanded at a slower pace, mainly from trading sector.
Farm Income(%YoY) 20182018 2 1
H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep
Nominal farm incomeP 1.6 . .1 .2 . . .1 .
Agricultural productionP 7.7 1 . . . 2. 1.1 1. 1.
Agricultural price
-5.7 . 2.1 . 2.1 2. 2. 2.
Nominal Farm Income
Note: Farm income does not include government subsidies and transfers. P = Preliminary dataSource: Office of Agricultural Economics and calculated by Bank of Thailand
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
4
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
SPI Hotel and Restaurant (8%) SPI Finance (14%)SPI Trade (26%) SPI Transport (13%)SPI Real Estate (16%)
Service Production Index (SPI) by SectorIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Service Production IndexNon-market Services (share 24.8%)Market Services (share 75.2%)
Service Production Index (SPI)Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014 = 100)
Note : Latest data estimated by Bank of Thailand Market services covering trade, hotels and restaurants, transportation and telecommunication, financial intermediation, real estate, and business services Non-market services covering public administration and defence, education, health, and social work Source: Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), Ministry of Commerce, National Statistical Office, The Revenue Department, The Office of Industrial Economics ,and Ministry of Tourism and Sports
Capacity Utilization (sa)
(%) Weight 2016R
2018 2019
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sepp
Food & Beverages 1 . .2 .1 .2 .2 . . . .
Automotives 1 . . . . . . .2 . .
Petroleum . . . . . . . 2. .
Chemicals .2 1. . . 1. . . . .
Rubbers & Plastics . 2. 2. . .1 . . . .
Cement & Construction . .1 . . . . . . 2.
IC & Semiconductors . .1 . . . . 2.2 1. .
Electrical Appliances . . 1. 2. 1. 2. . . .
Textiles & Apparels . . . .2 .2 . . . .1
Hard Disk Drive . . . . .2 .2 .1 .2 .
Others 1 . . . . .2 . . . .
CAPU sa 1 . .1 . . . . . . .
Source: Office of Industrial Economics
Note: the new Capacity Utilization series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2016)R = 2019 Revision P = Preliminary data
* The latest month was estimated by the BOT80
90
100
110
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul
Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)
Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)
Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production
Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by Bank Of Thailand
%MoM sa
-0.8 %
-6.4 %
-1.1 %
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
5
Newly Launched Propertiesin Bangkok and Vicinity Area
11 11
22
05
1015202530354045
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
2016 Q1
2017 Q1
2018 Q1
2019Q1
Low-rise residents Condominium Total
Source Agency for Real Estate Affairs AREA and calculated by Bank of Thailand
Thousand units,sa
Q3/2019
New Mortgage Loans from Commercial Banks in Bangkok and Vicinity Area*
107
17
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
2016 Q1
2017 Q1
2018 Q1
2019 Q1
Low-rise residents Condominium Total
* seasonally adjusted by Bank of ThailandSource: Bank of Thailand
Q3/2019Thousand units,sa
Housing Price index
100
120
140
160
180
200
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
2016 Q1
2017 Q1
2018 Q1
2019 Q1
Single house TownhouseCondominium Land
Source Mortgage loan reported by commercial banks, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Index (Jan2009 = 100)Q3/2019
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
6
2.2 Domestic Demand
Private Consumption Indicators
%YoY 20182018 2019P
H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepP %MoM sa
Non-durable index . . . 2. . . . . . Semi-durable index 2. 2. . . . . . . . Durable index . . .2 . . . . . . Service index . . . . 2.2 2. 2. . .
less Net tourist spending . . . 2. . . . . .
Private Consumption Index . . . .2 2. . . . . Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
405060708090
100
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Total CurrentNext 6 months Average 5 years
Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 100)
Average 5 years = 76.2
Source: The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, calculated by Bank of Thailand
% YoY 20182 2 P
H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep %MoM sa
Permitted Construction Area (9mma) . . . . . . .2 . 0.5
Construction Materials Index . . . . 2. . . . 1.4
Real Imports of Capital Goods . .2 2.2 2. 2. . . 2. 2.6
Real Domestic Machinery Sales . . . 2. . . . . -0.6
Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment . . . . . 2. .2 . -1.9
Private Investment Index . .2 2. . . . . . 0.5
Private Investment Indicators
Note: %MoM is calculated from seasonally adjusted data P = Preliminary DataSource: Bank of Thailand
Note: * Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector** Expenditure of non-resident in Thailand subtracted by expenditure of resident abroad
Source: Bank of Thailand
6080100120140160180
8090
100110120130140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Service Index sa, 3mmaNet tourist spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100
Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index**Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel IndexJan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100
90100110120130140150160
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, mmaFuel Index, sa (RHS)Fuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)
Source: The Nielsen company and Department of Energy Business, calculated by Bank of Thailand
80
90
100
110
120
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Semi-durable Index sa,3mma
Durable Index sa, 3mma
Jan 2014 = 100Durable and Semi-durable Indices
Source: Bank of Thailand
Private consumption indicators moderately expanded at a similar pace compared with the previous month, although the government launched the economic stimulus measures to support the purchasing power this month. Private investment indicators continued to deteriorate from the same period last year, from both investment in machinery and equipment and investment in construction, in line with the slowdown of economic activities. However, public spending, excluding transfers, slightly rebounded due to the central government’s capital expenditures.
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
7
Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets, except loan repayments 2/ Excludes loan principal and interest payment
Fiscal Position (Cash basis)Billion baht FY2018 FY2019
FY2018 FY2019Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Aug Sep
Revenue 2, 2, 2 22 (%YoY) . . . . 2. 2. 2. . . 2 . Expenditure1/ 2, 2 2, 2 2 (%YoY) . .2 . 2. 2.2 . . . . 22. Budgetary B/L 2 2 Non-Budgetary B/L 2 2 2 2 2 2 Cash B/L (CG) 2 2 2Primary balance 2/ 2 2 2 Net Financing 2 2 2 2Treasury B/L 2 2 2
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2016-18 FY2018 FY2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
avg. FY2016-18 FY2018 FY2019
Sep-3.0%
Sep14.0%
Billion baht Central Government Current Expenditure(Excl. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)
Billion baht
Source: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office and Bank of Thailand
Source : Bank of Thailand
Diffusion Index (Unchanged = 50)
40
50
60
Jan 2014
Jul Jan 2015
Jul Jan 2016
Jul Jan 2017
Jul Jan 2018
Jul Jan 2019
Jul
BSI Expected BSI (next 3 months)
Dec 19 54.1
Sep 19 .
Business Sentiment Index
4,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000
707580859095
100105
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)
Investment in Construction1,000 m2
9mmaIndex sa
(Jan 2014=100)
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: NSO and Bank of Thailand
Investment in Machinery and EquipmentIndex sa
(Jan 2014 = 100)
60
80
100
120
140
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Registered for Investment
Note: All data is in real terms.Source: Department of Land Transport, Customs Department, Revenue Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Economic and Monetary condition, September 2019
8
2.3 The global economy and external sector
Aug 2019 = 21.9 Bn USD Ex. gold = 20.0 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 15.8 Bn USD
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
%YoYShare 2018
2018P
2018P 2019P
H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepSep
(%MoM)Agriculture .2 . . 2. 2. . . . . . Fishery . . . . . .2 2. 2.2 . . Manufacturing . . .2 . . . . . 2. .
Agro-manufacturing 2. . .2 .2 . . . . . . Electronics . . 2. . . . . . . .
Electrical Appliances . . . . . 2.2 2. . . .
Automotive .2 . . . . . . . . .
Machinery & Equipment
. . . . 2. .2 .2 . . .
Petroleum Related . 2 . 2 . . .2 . . 2 . .2 . Total (BOP Basis) . . 2. 2. . .2 . 2. . .
Ex. Gold .2 2. . .2 . . . . .
Ex. Gold & Petroleum Related
. . 2. . . 2. . . .2
Export ValueSep 2019 = 20.4 Bn USD Ex. gold = 19.8 Bn USD
75
85
95
105
115
125
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Asian Export PerformanceIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)
Note: Thai export excludes gold. Indonesian export excludes oil&gas.Source: CEIC, Customs Department, calculated by Bank of Thailand
PH INDOMYTHTWCNSGKR
The current account registered a lower surplus, mainly from the trade balance in which the value of gold exported decreased. The overall capital and financial accounts registered a deficit from the assets positions.
%YoYShare 2018
2018P
2018P 2019P
H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepSep
(%MoM)
Consumer . 2. . . . . . 2.2 . 2.
Raw material & Intermediate
. . . . . . . . . .
o/w Fuel . . . . . . . . 2 . 2 .2
o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel
. . . . 2. .2 . .2 . .
Capital 22. . . . . . . . . .
Others . . .2 . . 2. 2 . . . .
Total (BOP Basis) . . . . 2. . . . . .
Ex. Gold - . . . . . 2. . . .
Ex. Gold&Fuel
- . . .2 . . . . . .
%MoM calculated from seasonally adjusted data. P = Preliminary data.Note: 1/ Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents. 2/ Import of consumer goods In July includes temporarily imported jewellery for exhibition but is excluded in the total import value in BOP basis due to no changes in ownership.Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data
Import ValueAug 2019 = 18.3 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 17.6 Bn USD
Sep 2019 = 17.7 Bn USD Ex.Gold = 16.9 Bn USD
Economic and Monetary condition, September 2019
9
Millions of USD 2018P 2018P 2019PYTDH1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepE
1. Assets 22 2 2 TDI 2 2 2 2 - Equity 2 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2
Thai portfolio investment 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Equity security investment 2 22 22 - Debt security investment 2 2 2
Loans 2 2 Other investments 2 2 2 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Deposits abroad 22 2 2 2
2. Liabilities 2 2 2 2 2 2 FDI 2 - Equity 2 2 2 2 2 2 - Reinvestment of earnings 2 2 2 2
Foreign portfolio investment 2 2 2 2 2 - Equity security investment 2 2 2 2 2 - Debt security investment 2 2
Loans 2 2 2 2 2 2 Other investments 2 2 - Trade credits 2 2 - Deposits abroad 2 2 2 2 2
Total financial flows (1+2) 2 2
Net Financial Flows
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data
Balance of Payments
Billion USD 2018P2018P 201 P
H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepE YTDTrade Balance 22. . . . . . . 2. 2 . Exports (f.o.b.) 2 . 2 . 2 . . . . 2 . 2 . .
%YoY . 2. 2. . .2 . 2. . 2. Imports (f.o.b.) 22 . . . . . . . . .
%YoY . . . 2. . . . . . Net Services, Income & Transfers . . . . . .2 . . . Current Account 2 . . . 2.2 . . . . 2 . Capital and Financial Account . 2. . . .2 .2 . . . Overall Balance . . . . . . . . 2.
50
100
150
200
Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Total China (28%)Malaysia (11%) Asia ex. CN MY (30%)Europe ex. Russia (14%) Russia (4%)
Index sa(Jan 2015 = 100)
Tourists Classified by Nationality
Note: denotes share of total tourist arrivals in 2 P = Preliminary dataSource: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, calculated by Bank of Thailand
%YoY (Share in
2018)2018
2018 2019%MoM
saH1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepP
China (27.6%) . 2 . . . .2 . . . .
Malaysia (10.6%) . 2. 2 . . . . . . .
Asia ex. China & Malaysia (29.9%)
.2 . . .2 . . . . 2.
Russia (3.9%) . . . . . 2. . . .2
Europe ex. Russia (13.8%)
2. . .2 2. . 2. 2. 2. .
Others (14.3%) . . . . . .2 . . . Total(million persons)
. (38.2)
. (19.4)
2. (18.8)
2. .
. .
.2 .
. .
. 2.
2.2
Inbound Tourists by Country of Origin
Source: Ministry of Tourism and Sports
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
10
2.4 Monetary and financial conditions
Commercial Bank Interest Rates*% p.a. 2017 2018 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q /19 24 Oct 19
2-month deposit rate
Average of 5 largest Thai banks**
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
MLR
Average of 5 largest Thai banks
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
MRR
Average of 5 largest Thai banks
Average of other Thai banks
Average of foreign branches and subsidiary
1.37
1.48
1.11
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.46
8.54
1.37
1.46
1.11
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.46
8.54
1.42
1.48
1.19
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.47
8.54
1.46
1.48
1.19
6.28
7.31
7.58
7.19
8.50
8.54
1.4
1.
1.1
6.28
7.31
7.58
8.
8.54
1.4
1.
1.1
6.28
7.31
7.58
8.
8.54
End of Period Bangkok Bank, Krung Thai Bank, Kasikorn Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Bank of Ayudhya
Source: Bank of Thailand
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Jan-
17Ma
r-17
May-1
7Ju
l-17
Sep-
17No
v-17
Jan-
18Ma
r-18
May-1
8Ju
l-18
Sep-
18No
v-18
Jan-
19Ma
r-19
May-1
9Ju
l-19
Sep-
19
1D BRP 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y
Government Bond Yields
Sources: Bank of Thailand and ThaiBMA
As of 24 Oct 19
1.5 1.4 1.4
1. 1.4
Note: Data for other depository corporations’ (ODCs) private credit and the ODCs’ private credit extended to households have been revised since January 2016 due to reflect the improvement in the data processing system.Source: Bank of Thailand
Billion baht
New Private Credit Extended by Other Depository Corporations
-0.8
-0.2
0.4
1.0
1.6
-80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8Oc
t-18
Jan-
19Ap
r-19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
17Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7Oc
t-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8Oc
t-18
Jan-
19Ap
r-19
Jul-1
9
MoM, SA % MoM change, SA (RHS)
BusinessHousehold
%
Total corporate financing slightly decreased compared with the previous month mainly due to financing through debt securities. New credit slightly decelerated from credit extended to households. As for the exchange rate, Thai baht against the U.S. dollar remained unchanged while the NEER slightly depreciated when compared to the month-end level of the previous month.
Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value.
Source: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET
Sources of Corporate Financing Billion baht
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
Business Credits (SA) Equity Debt 3MMA
2017 2018 2019
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
11
30.1
31.1
32.1
33.1
34.1
35.1
36.198
100102104106108110112114116118120122124126128130
30-D
ec-1
6
20-F
eb-1
7
7-Ap
r-17
30-M
ay-1
7
17-Ju
l-17
04-S
ep-1
7
20-O
ct-1
7
12-D
ec-1
7
30-Ja
n-18
19-M
ar-1
8
9-M
ay-1
8
26-Ju
n-18
15-A
ug-1
8
1-Oc
t-18
19-N
ov-1
8
9-Ja
n-19
26-F
eb-1
9
17-A
pr-1
9
7-Ju
n-19
24-Ju
l-19
11-S
ep-1
9
NEER25
USDTHB (RHS)
Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of Thailand
Exchange Rates
Index (2012 = 100) USDTHB (reverse)
Appreciation
24 Oct 2 9USDTHB = 30.28NEER25 = 127.40
Sources: Reuters, Bank of Thailand
% p.a.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
30-D
ec-1
624
-Jan-
1715
-Feb
-17
8-M
ar-1
729
-Mar
-17
24-A
pr-1
717
-May
-17
7-Ju
n-17
28-Ju
n-17
20-Ju
l-17
11-A
ug-1
74-
Sep-
1725
-Sep
-17
17-O
ct-1
79-
Nov-
1730
-Nov
-17
25-D
ec-1
717
-Jan-
187-
Feb-
1828
-Feb
-18
22-M
ar-1
817
-Apr
-18
9-M
ay-1
831
-May
-18
21-Ju
n-18
12-Ju
l-18
6-Au
g-18
28-A
ug-1
818
-Sep
-18
9-O
ct-1
81-
Nov-
1822
-Nov
-18
17-D
ec-1
89-
Jan-
1930
-Jan-
1921
-Feb
-19
14-M
ar-1
94-
Apr-1
930
-Apr
-19
24-M
ay-1
917
-Jun-
198-
Jul-1
930
-Jul-1
921
-Aug
-19
11-S
ep-1
92-
Oct
-19
HKD THB CNY IDR INR KRW MYR PHP SGD
As of 24 Oct 2019
Regional Exchange Rate Volatility
-1.2%
-0.4% -0.2% -0.1%0.0%
0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8%1.0%
1.2%
2.1%
-0.9%
0.4%
1.2%
0.0%
1.0%
-0.4% -0.3%
0.1%
-0.6%
0.3%
1.2%
0.5%
2.5%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
JPY EUR PHP VND THB IDR MYR CNY INR SGD TWD KRW GBP
End of Sep 19 compared to end of Aug 1924 Oct 19 compared to end of Sep 19
Exchange Rate Movement
Sources: Reuters, calculated by Bank of ThailandNote: End-period data, + = Appreciation against USD
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
12
2.5 Financial stability
Headline inflation continued to decline from the previous month due to a higher contraction in energy and lower core inflation. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged from last month. However, the number of employed persons continued to decrease in the non-farm sector. External stability continued to be strong and thus provide cushion against the volatility coming from the global financial markets.
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Raw food (15.69%)Energy (11.75%)Core Inflation (72.56%)
Headline inflation contribution%YoY
Sep0.32%( ) Share in Headline Inflation
0
1
2
3
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)
Core inflation contribution%YoY
Sep0.44%
( ) Share in Core Inflation
0.5
1.0
1.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Unemployment Rate
Sep 2019Unemployment rate 1.0 %Unemployment rate (sa) 1.0 %
%
Note: Data from 2014 onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing CensusSource: Labor Force Survey, NSO
80859095
100105110115
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Total Agriculture (31%) Manufacturing (17%)Construction (6%) Trade (17%) Service (29%)
Employment Index
Note: Data from 2014 onward are based on The 2010 Population and Housing Census.( ) denotes share in total employment
Source: Labor Force Survey, NSO calculated by BOT
Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2014=100)
EmploymentThousand persons sa, 3mma
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
Jan2014
Jul Jan2015
Jul Jan2016
Jul Jan2017
Jul Jan2018
Jul Jan2019
Jul
Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Agriculture (sa) (RHS)Not in Labor Force (sa, 3mma) (RHS) Not in Labor Force (sa) (RHS)
Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT
Thousand persons sa, 3mma
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
13
External Debt Outstanding
Note: *including BOT bonds held by non-residents and SDRs allocations by IMF Source : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data
Billion USD 2018P2018P 2019P
Change Sep19-Aug19
H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepE Total
1. General government . 2 . . .2 . . . . . 2. Central Bank* . 5. . . 5. . . . . 3. Other Depository Corporations (ODC) . 5. . . . . . . . 4. Other Sectors . . . . . 2. . 2. .
- Other Financial Corporations (OFC) .5 . .5 . . . .2 . .5- Non Financial Corporations (NFC) . 2. . 5. . . .2 . .2O/W Foreign Trade Credit 25. 2 . 25. 25. 2 . 2 .2 2 . 2 .2 .
5. Total 2. 5 .2 2. .5 . . . . . Short-term (%) . 2. . .5 . 5. . 5. Long-term (%) . 5 . . .5 2. . . .
External Stability Indicators
Criteria 2018P2018P 2019P
H1 H2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug SepE
Solvency Indicators Current Account / GDP (%)
Debt / GDP (%) < /
Debt / XGS1/ (%) < /
Debt Service Ratio (%)
Liquidity Indicators
Gross Reserves / ST Debt > 1 time
Gross Reserves / Imports2/ > 3 times
ST Debt / Total Debt (%)
Note: XGS – Export of Goods and Services (3-year average) Monthly Import of Goods and Services (1-year average)
Severely indebted countriesSource : Bank of Thailand P=Preliminary data E=Estimated data
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
14
3. Link to related statistics and contents
Agricultural sector
Agricultural prices: Agricultural prices
Agricultural production: Agricultural products
More information: Office Of Agricultural Economics www.oae.go.th Manufacturing sector
Manufacturing production: Manufacturing production index (MPI)
Capacity utilization rate: Capacity utilization rate
More information: Office of Industrial Economics www.oie.go.th Real estate sector
Property Indicators: Property Indicators (EC_EI_009_S2)
More information: Real Estate Information Center www.reic.or.th/ Public finance
Central government revenue: Government revenue
Central government expenditure (GFSM2001): Government expenditure (EC_PF_011)
Fiscal Position (GFSM2001): Fiscal position in cash basis (EC_PF_009)
More information: Fiscal Policy Office www.fpo.go.th Labor market
Labor force survey: Labor force survey (EC_RL_009_S4)
Employment: Number of employed persons classified by occupation (EC_RL_012)
Average wage: Average wage classified by industry (EC_RL_014_S2)
More information: National Statistical Office www.nso.go.th
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
15
Inflation
Inflation: Consumer price index (CPI)
More information: Bureau of Trade and Economic Indices www.price.moc.go.th
Other reports of Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand
Monthly report on Business Sentiment Index: Business Sentiment Index
Quarterly report on Business Outlook: Business Outlook Report
Quarterly report on Credit Condition: Senior Loan Officer Survey
Economic and Monetary Conditions, September 2019
16
Contact
Agricultural sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 6637
Manufacturing sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5650
Service sector Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2356 7300
Real estate sector Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7096
Private consumption Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5647
Private investment Macroeconomics Team 1-2 0 2283 5639
Public finance Public Finance Team 0 2356 7877
The global economy International Economics Division 0 2283 5147
External sector and balance of payments Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 6726
Monetary and financial conditions Monetary Policy Strategy Division 0 2283 6186
Inflation Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2283 7090
Labor market Sectoral Analysis Division 0 2283 5645
Financial Stability Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098
Financial Position Macro Surveillance Team 1-2 0 2356 7098
External stability Balance of Payment Division 0 2283 5636