Economic Forecast - Chase

Economic Forecast

OUTPUT AND EMPLOYMENT WHAT THE TABLE SHOWS:

Ohio’s GDP forecast is derived from the

national forecast by allocating output to each

of the 50 states based on employment

shares. So, forecast misses reflect surprises

in the aggregate forecast as well as

unexpected shifts in a state’s GDP share.

Ohio’s economy contracted more sharply

than the national economy in 2008 and

2009, but now is rebounding at a

respectable pace.

KEY MESSAGE:

Ohio’s economy is forecast to match the

pace of the national recovery in 2013.

Note: GDP figures are based on quarterly values that are

interpolated from annual GDP estimates using quarterly

employment changes. Unbolded figures are reported actual

values and bold figures represent forecasts.

Sources: US Department of Commerce;

US Department of Labor.

February 17, 2013

Regional Perspectives: Ohio Economic Outlook

Commercial Banking 2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

United States

Real GDP

$ billions (fourth quarter) $13,326 $12,884 $12,873 $13,181 $13,441 $13,648 $14,090 $14,654

% change over the four quarters 2.2% -3.3% -0.1% 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 3.2% 4.0%

Nonfarm employment

Job count (fourth quarter) 137,943,000 135,153,333 129,526,667 130,283,667 132,286,667 134,455,000 136,189,659 138,513,010


Average monthly change 99,750 -232,472 -468,889 63,083 166,917 180,694 144,555 193,613

Ohio

Real GDP

$ billions (fourth quarter) $437 $420 $408 $416 $422 $431 $443 $460

% change over the four quarters -0.7% -3.8% -2.9% 2.1% 1.5% 2.1% 2.8% 3.8%

Nonfarm employment

Job count (fourth quarter) 5,422,000 5,284,900 5,006,767 5,056,733 5,095,600 5,191,767 5,254,648 5,338,870


Average monthly change -153 -11,425 -23,178 4,164 3,239 8,014 5,240 7,018

The Economy’s Structure

PERCENT OF TOTAL GDP DERIVED FROM SELECTED INDUSTRIES WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

The figure compares the relative importance

of selected industries to the state’s economy

with the national footprint of each industry

(state and national figures reflect the value

added of each industry as a percent of

aggregate state or US nominal GDP,

respectively).

Auto production has an outsized footprint in

Ohio’s economy.

KEY MESSAGES:

The reviving motor vehicle industry now is

an asset for Ohio. And the health care

industry provides a steady backdrop.

Source: US Department of Commerce. Updated through

2011.

February 17, 2013



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Agr

icul

ture

Min

ing

Util

ities

Con

stru

ctio

n

Dur

able

man

ufac

turin

g

Non

dudr

able

man

ufac

turin

g

Who

lesa

le tr

ade

Ret

ail t

rade

Tra

nspo

rtat

ion

Info

rmat

ion

Fin

ance

and

insu

ranc

e

Rea

l est

ate

Pro

fess

iona

l and

tech

nica

l ser

vice

s

Man

agem

ent o

f com

pani

es

Adm

inis

trat

ive

and

was

te m

anag

emen

t ser

vice

s

Edu

catio

nal s

ervi

ces

Hea

lth c

are

and

soci

al a

ssis

tanc

e

Art

s, e

nter

tain

men

t, an

d re

crea

tion

Hot

el a

nd fo

od s

ervi

ce

Oth

er s

ervi

ces

Gov

ernm

ent

US industrial mix

Ohio industrial mix

Bankruptcies

RATIO OF BANKRUPTCY FILINGS TO THE 2007 Q4 NUMBER WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

Bankruptcies are falling back, looking at the

ratio of bankruptcy filings by businesses and

persons to filings in 2007 Q4 .

Bankruptcy filings have dropped back to a

normal rate.

KEY MESSAGES:

Indicators of financial stress are a useful

coincident indication of economic distress.

Financial stresses from the housing debacle

have largely passed.

Source: Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts; Updated

through December 2012.

February 17, 2013



0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Business bankruptcy filingsNonbusiness bankruptcy filings

All US bankruptcy filings (shaded area)

Private Business Surveys

REAL GDP (% CHANGE 12 MONTHS EARLIER) DIFFUSION INDEXES (0 = NO CHANGE) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

Surveys of local purchasing managers are

superimposed on GDP growth in Ohio.

Surveys of expectations about the outlook

remain favorable.

KEY MESSAGES:

Sentiment surveys provide useful leading

information and these are pointing to an

improvement in the state’s economic

outlook.

Sources: Institute of Supply Management; US Department

of Commerce. Updated through December 2012 (diffusion

indexes) and 2012 Q4 (GDP).

February 17, 2013



-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Ohio's real GDP (left scale)

Cincinnati Business Conditions Index (right scale)Cleveland Business Conditions Index (right scale)

Private Business Surveys

REAL GDP (% CHANGE 12 MONTHS EARLIER) DIFFUSION INDEXES (50 = NO CHANGE) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

The Mid-America Business Barometer

Index, based on the survey of purchasing

managers, is illustrated along with real GDP

growth in the Great Lakes region.

The purchasing managers index points to

future growth (a reading above 50 means

the economy is growing, while less than 50

means the economy is shrinking).

The index is a timely measure of the

strength of business activity in the Midwest

and indicates that, although the latest

readings have slowed somewhat, activity

remains solid.

KEY MESSAGES:

This index will be a useful leading indicator

of the direction of the economy.

Sources: Institute of Supply Management; US Department

of Commerce. Updated through December 2012 (diffusion

indexes) and 2012 Q4 (GDP).

February 17, 2013



10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Real GDP in the Great Lakes region (left scale)

Business Barometer Index, Mid-America Purchasing Managers (right scale)

Initial Jobless Claims

RATIO OF INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE TO THE 2007 Q4 LEVEL WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

The figure tracks layoffs in Ohio and the

national level of claims.

Weekly layoffs, both the state and national

tallies, are illustrated in the figure as a ratio

to the level of layoffs in the fourth quarter of

2007, prior to the recession.

Layoffs have fallen to pre-recession levels.

KEY MESSAGES:

The low pace of layoffs is bullish for the

state’s economic outlook.

Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through

February 2, 2013 (state) and February 9, 2013 (US).

February 17, 2013



0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

OhioUS (solid area)

Ohio accounts for 19.8% of auto manufacturing employment

Economic Growth

REAL GDP GROWTH (PERCENT CHANGE FROM FOUR QUARTERS EARLIER) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

Real GDP growth in Ohio (the line in the

figure) is superimposed on top of US real

GDP growth (bars in the figure).

Ohio’s economy is tracking along with the

national recovery.

KEY MESSAGES:

The Buckeye State’s economy is expected

to continue to expand in 2013, paralleling

the national recovery.


2012 Q4.

February 17, 2013



-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

OhioUS

Economic Output

REAL GDP LEVEL (RATIO TO 2000 Q4) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

The figure illustrates the evolution of real

GDP of the state and the overall US

economy since the fourth quarter of 2000,

the peak of the previous business cycle—

that is, at any point in time the lines trace the

ratio of real GDP to its level in 2000 Q4.

The state’s economy appears to be on the

mend.

KEY MESSAGES:

Ohio is expected to gradually close the gap

between the state’s output level and the

national trend in output.


2012 Q4.

February 17, 2013



0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US

Ohio

Employment Growth

NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (PERCENT CHANGE FROM 12 MONTHS EARLIER) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

The chart appears to illustrate the theme, as

the Midwest goes, so goes Ohio.

Ohio’s job market, which contracted more

sharply than the national market during the

recession, now is expanding at a robust

pace, the fastest since the late 1990s.

KEY MESSAGES:

Employment is expected to expand at a

respectable pace for the next several years.

Source: US Department of Labor. Updated through January

2013.

February 17, 2013



-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

OhioUS

Employment in Relative Terms

NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (RATIO TO THE 2000 Q4 LEVEL) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

The figure illustrates the evolution of

employment in the state compared with the

nation since 2000 Q4, the peak of the

previous business cycle. The lines trace out

the ratio of employment at the time to

employment in 2000 Q4.

The state’s employment base is down about

nine percent from decade-ago levels, but is

making good progress in recovering those

losses.

Businesses have recovered or replaced 50

percent of the jobs that were lost during the

recession.

KEY MESSAGES:

Employment is on the rise.


2013.

February 17, 2013



0.88

0.89

0.90

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

0.88

0.89

0.90

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

1.01

1.02

1.03

1.04

1.05

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US

Ohio

Employment in Absolute Terms

NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

Trends in the actual employment count in

the state (left scale) and the level of

employment in the overall economy (right

scale).

KEY MESSAGES:

Legacy housing drags aren’t preventing a

new recovery, even in Ohio.


2013.

February 17, 2013

Regional Perspectives: California Economic Outlook


127,500

130,000

132,500

135,000

137,500

140,000

5,000

5,050

5,100

5,150

5,200

5,250

5,300

5,350

5,400

5,450

5,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US (right scale)Ohio (left scale)

Intrastate Employment

NONFARM PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES (RATIO TO 2000 Q4 LEVEL) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

Job trends in local communities within the

state.

Employment in most of Ohio’s communities

is rising.

KEY MESSAGES:

Ohio’s economic fortunes still depend

importantly on the strength of the vehicle

industry, which is not on the rise.


December 2012 (state) and January 2013 (US).

February 17, 2013



0.80

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

0.80

0.82

0.84

0.86

0.88

0.90

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

1.02

1.04

1.06

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

US forecast

US

Columbus

Cincinnati-Middletown

Akron

Sandusky

Lima

Steubenville

Cleveland-Elyria-

MentorMansfield

Springfield

Dayton

Canton-Massillon

Youngstown

Toledo

Ohio forecast

Ohio

Unemployment

UNEMPLOYMENT (PERCENT OF THE LABOR FORCE) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

Unemployment has fallen by more than the

national average and now is below the US

average.

Ohio’s unemployment rate is falling very

rapidly.

KEY MESSAGES:

The unemployment rate is the single best

indicator of the relative economic

performance of a region and by this

standard the local economy is rebounding at

an impressive pace.

The steady drop in the state’s

unemployment rate is a sign the economy is

growing faster than its underlying potential

rate.


December 2012 (state) and January 2013 (US).

February 17, 2013



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Ohio

US (shaded)

Relative House Prices

RATIO OF THE STATE’S HOUSE PRICES TO THE NATIONAL AVERAGE (1995 Q2 = 1.0) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

The figure tracks the relative price of houses

in the state versus the nation—that is, it

reflects the ratio of the state price index to

the national house price index, with that ratio

set to unity in the summer of 1995. A drop

in the line means that house prices in the

state lag the national trend. States that did

not suffer from speculative conditions saw a

decline in the relative price of houses in this

last decade.

Ohio did not see house prices run up as in

other regions during the speculative boom

but its house prices have fallen as other

markets have corrected.

KEY MESSAGES:

Real estate conditions are expected to

strengthen in the future.

Source: FHFA. Updated through 2012 Q3.

February 17, 2013



0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Real Estate Markets

HOUSE PRICES IN SELECTED COMMUNITIES (RATIO TO THE 1995 Q2 LEVEL) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

The figure tracks the cumulative percentage

deviation in house prices since 1995 in

selected local markets and compares those

with the national average.

Ohio’s reviving economy is beginning to

stabilize house prices.

KEY MESSAGE:

Real estate prices have been drifting down

since 2006.

Sources: FHFA; Standard & Poor’s. Updated through

2012 Q3.

February 17, 2013



0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

US

Mansfield

Lima

Cleveland

Columbus

Dayton

Canton

Acron

Sandusky

Springfield

Toledo

Youngstown

Cleveland (Case-Shiller)

US

New Home Building

HOUSING STARTS (RATIO TO THE JULY 1990 LEVEL) WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

The pace of new home building (housing

starts) in Ohio, compared with the national

trends.

Even though Ohio did not see a housing

bubble, the struggling manufacturing sector

is taking a toll on the building business.

Home building activity just recently has

begun to revive.

KEY MESSAGES:

Housing activity is forecast to gradually

recover from current levels.

Source: Census Department. Updated through December

2012.

February 17, 2013



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

USOhio

Office Markets

PERCENT OF OFFICE SPACE THAT IS VACANT WHAT THE CHART SHOWS:

Office market conditions in selected

markets.

Market conditions are beginning to improve

in Cincinnati and Columbus.

KEY MESSAGES:

Ohio’s commercial real estate markets are

forecast to be on the mend as the economy

revives.

Source: CB Richard Ellis (formerly CB Commercial Property

Information Systems), Office Vacancy Index of the United

States. Updated through 2012 Q3.

February 17, 2013



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Columbus metropolitan areaCleveland metropolitan areaCincinnati metropolitan area

All metropolitan areas (shaded area)

Date post:	12-Sep-2021
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	1 times
Download:	0 times

Economic Forecast - Chase

Documents