Economic Growth and Patterns of Democratisation in China and Russia

Ian McAllisterThe Australian National University

Stephen WhiteUniversity of Glasgow

Economic Development and Democracy

Theories of modernization: more economically developed, greater likelihood of democratization

First raised by Lipset (1959); economic development creates middle class

More recent work by Huntington and Przeworski more equivocal

Core problem is causality, which comes first?

Examine the relationship in China and Russia using WVS data from 1990 to 2012.

Public Views of Governance

Views of Democratic Rule

Hypotheses: 1. Religion

19901991

19921993

19941995

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

China, church attendance

China, religious person

Russia, church attendance

Russia, religious person

Perc

ent

2. Education

3. Occupation

4. Economic Attitudes

5. Personal Empowerment

6. Political Outlooks

Predicting Support for Democracy(OLS Estimates)

Conclusions

Most consistent predictor of democratization is elite education, followed by mass education

Occupation also important, underpinning social mobility

Subjective beliefs relatively unimportant

Education therefore potentially key to democratization in China and Russia

Especially important in China, where elite education tripled between 1990 and 2012