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Economic UpdateThe Crisis Hits Home
Office of the Chief EconomistHuman Development Sector Management UnitPoverty and Economic Management Sector Management Unit
Europe and Central Asia RegionWorld Bank
Annual MeetingsIstanbul, October 2009
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Main points
Good news for enterprises, but foreign debt clouds the
future Industrial production stopped falling in mid-2009
But $350 billion of external debt due in 2010
Bad news for families as poverty and unemployment
rise, while household debt clouds the future Poverty will rise by almost 15 million instead of falling by 15 million in
2009
Stress tests indicate more debt distress likely for households in 2010
Tough times ahead for governments, and social
security debt clouds the future Fiscal deficits will rise from 1.5 to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2009
Stress tests indicate pension deficits rising to 5-6 percent of GDP
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Good news for enterprises, but foreign debt clouds future
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Industry has stopped shrinking
Developing
Industrial production, percentage change (saar)
Latin America
Europe & Central Asia
Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group.
South Asia
Middle-East & North Africa East Asia & Pacific
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Interest rates are lower
Emerging-market bond spreads have fallen but remain higher than pre-crisis levels
Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group
Before Lehman Brothers
Sovereign bonds(EMBI Global)
Corporate bonds(CEMBI Global)
Business regulations are better
Countries that made at least one positive reform in 2008 (%)
Leading Ten Doing Business Reformers in 2008
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1. Rwanda
2. Kyrgyz Republic
3. Macedonia, FYR
4. Belarus
5. United Arab Emirates
6. Moldova
7. Colombia
8. Tajikistan
9. Egypt, Arab Rep
10. Liberia
Source: World Bank, Doing Business 2009
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But debt obligations loom large
Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group
More than $350 billion of ECA’s foreign debt matures in 2010
Bad news for families as poverty and unemployment rise, while household debt distress clouds the future
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Poverty will rise
Source: World Bank Staff
Increases in poverty and vulnerability (change in people living on <$5/day)
This graph needs to be redone, with a stacked bar chart with bothPoverty (<$2.50) and vulnerability(2.50-5.00)
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Poverty will rise everywhere
Note: Estimates are not comparable across countries.Source: World Bank Staff
Share of households below national poverty lines
Most recent poverty estimate Forecasted poverty in 2009
Armenia 23.8 (2007) 29.7
Azerbaijan 10.8 (2008) 11.8
Bulgaria 9.7 (2007) 11.3
Latvia 19.8 (2008) 26.9
Romania 5.7 (2008) 7.4
Russia 13.5 (2008) 15.5
Tajikistan 53.1 (2008) 57.9
Turkey 17.4 (2008) 21.9
Note: Estimates are not comparable across countries
Most recent poverty estimate Forecasted poverty in 2009
Armenia 23.8 (2007) 29.7
Azerbaijan 10.8 (2008) 11.8
Bulgaria 9.7 (2007) 11.3
Latvia 19.8 (2008) 26.9
Romania 5.7 (2008) 7.4
Russia 13.5 (2008) 15.5
Tajikistan 53.1 (2008) 57.9
Turkey 17.4 (2008) 21.9
Note: Estimates are not comparable across countries
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Rising job losses
Source: World Bank Staff
Registered unemployment has risen in almost every country since mid-2008
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Job losses most in middle-income ECA
Source: World Bank Staff
Growth of unemployment rates, 2009 over 2008, percent
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Unemployment in Turkey has doubled
Source: World Bank staff
Registered unemployment in Turkey, February 2008 to August 2009
Incomes in Turkey have been falling
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Evidence from Turkey finds a particularly large hit to self employment income
Source: World Bank-UNICEF Survey
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The sources of household distress
Source: World Bank 2009: The Crisis Hits Home
Most recent poverty estimate Forecasted poverty in 2009
Armenia 23.8 (2007) 29.7
Azerbaijan 10.8 (2008) 11.8
Bulgaria 9.7 (2007) 11.3
Latvia 19.8 (2008) 26.9
Romania 5.7 (2008) 7.4
Russia 13.5 (2008) 15.5
Tajikistan 53.1 (2008) 57.9
Turkey 17.4 (2008) 21.9
Note: Estimates are not comparable across countries
Most recent poverty estimate Forecasted poverty in 2009
Armenia 23.8 (2007) 29.7
Azerbaijan 10.8 (2008) 11.8
Bulgaria 9.7 (2007) 11.3
Latvia 19.8 (2008) 26.9
Romania 5.7 (2008) 7.4
Russia 13.5 (2008) 15.5
Tajikistan 53.1 (2008) 57.9
Turkey 17.4 (2008) 21.9
Note: Estimates are not comparable across countries
• Credit Market ShockFinancial Market
• Relative Price ShockProduct Market
• Income/Employment Shock
Labor Market
Shocks are transmitted to households through financial, product and labor markets
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Household stress tests show distress
Source: World Bank Staff
Severe Stress likely in Bosnia, Croatia, Estonia and Hungary
0
10
20
30
40
50
I II III IV V ALL I II III IV V ALL I II III IV V ALL I II III IV V ALL
Bosnia & Herzegovina Croatia Estonia Hungary
% of debt-holding households that are not vulnerable
% of debt-holding households that are vulnerable, prior to the simulation
% of debt-holding households that become vulnerable, as a result of the simulation
Debt repayment as a % of household income (median), prior to the simulation
Debt repayment as a % of household income (median), as a result of the simulation
Tough times ahead for governments, and pension debt clouds the future
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Rapid fiscal deterioration in 2009
Source: World Bank Staff
Central and Eastern European government accounts were hit sooner
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Fiscal Balance (% GDP), 2000-2010
CEE + Turkey CIS
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Social protection spending
ECA spends a lot on public pensions (percent of GDP)
Source: World Bank staff estimates and OECD Social Expenditure Database. Most data from 2000 to 2003.
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Good coverage of social assistance
Source: World Bank Staff
Is lowest in ECA’s poorest countries, but compares favorably with other regions
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And reasonable targeting
Source: World Bank Staff
Not all goes to poor, but accuracy compares favorably with programs in other regions
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Reforms needed for social security
Source: World Bank staff
The reforms that help the most are inflation indexing and higher retirement ages
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Crisis is not over. Countries in Emerging Europe and
Central Asia face a slow recovery No green shoots for workers
Tighter money ahead. Post-crisis growth will likely be
lower, and fiscal deficits higher Smaller budgets for governments
Fiscal consolidation, not indiscriminate cuts. More
efficiency of spending can mean more growth and
more equity
Better prospects for both families and firms
Messages
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How the World Bank is helping
Supporting budgets Increased lending (IBRD/IDA): $3.8bn in 2007, $4.2bn in 2008, $9.3bn in 2009
Operations in Armenia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland,
Romania, Serbia, Tajikistan, Turkey, and Ukraine
Strengthening institutions Helping countries such as Belarus, FYR Macedonia and Turkey improve
social assistance programs
Helping middle income countries strengthen banking systems
Helping all countries improve social service delivery mechanisms
Improving policies Public expenditure reviews, e.g., in Poland, Lithuania, Russia, and Latvia to
identify areas for efficiency
Economic reports, e.g., in Croatia and Central Asia to strengthen integration
in Europe and Eurasia
More information
World Bank, 2009: The Crisis Hits Home: Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia, Report No. 50158-ECA.
[email protected] [email protected]
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