EDUCATIONAL MASTER PLAN UPDATE 2015-2016...The 2015-2016 EMP Update has been described as a snapshot...

EDUCATIONAL MASTER PLAN

UPDATE

2015-2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Educational Master Plan Update Page 1

Introduction to 2015-2016 Educational Master Plan Update Message from the President . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Overview & Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Development Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Data and Analysis Effective Service Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Feeder Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Labor Market Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Enrollment Trends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Student Progression & Persistence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Facilities Usage & Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Program Clustering . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Challenges & Associated Strategies Enrollment Stability & Growth-Related Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Local Needs-Related Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Non-Credit & Upper Valley Campus-Related Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Technology & Physical Resources-Related Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36

INTRODUCTION TO 2015-2016 EDUCATIONAL MASTER PLAN UPDATE


MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT

I am proud to present Napa Valley College’s Educational Master Plan Update (2015-2016). As the institution celebrates its status as the #1

Community College in California by Best Colleges.com, I am certain that Napa Valley College (NVC) will continue its legacy of transforming the

lives of thousands of students.

Napa Valley College has a wide array of outstanding programs and the Educational Master Plan Update reflects both the current and future

needs of the Napa Valley and the region. The campus is remarkable for its physical vibrancy and architectural beauty, its distinguished faculty of

innovative teachers and administrators, a dedicated and creative staff, a diverse student body, a committed group of alumni and friends, and

deep connections to the community.

Our work on NVC’s Educational Master Plan Update has been an example of participatory decision making in action—with stakeholder input and

reflection across the campus. As the college approaches its 75th year, our dedication to student success keeps us focused on a bright and

forward-looking future.

This Educational Master Plan is reviewed every three years and this 2015-2016 update will be used to guide strategic institutional planning and

the disposition of physical resources. Educational master planning is a process by which Napa Valley College has examined all elements of the

institution and envisions its future as directed by the college mission and the needs of the community. Planning was conducted through a broad-

based collaboration among faculty, staff, students, and community constituents, and outlines this collective view that will guide the college’s

future.

I am proud that the plan reflects the college and community values and continues the progress that has made NVC one of the region’s

preeminent sources of economic and cultural vitality; the recognized leader in career technical training, transfer and undergraduate classes and

programs; and the state’s #1 choice for students.

Our Educational Master Plan Update connects all of us in a common purpose to a transformative future improving the lives of students, faculty,

staff and community.

All the best,

Dr. Ronald Kraft

Superintendent/President



OVERVIEW & PURPOSE

The 2015-2016 Educational Master Plan (EMP) Update is part of NVC’s integrated planning schedule, which includes a regular update to the EMP

every three years. The 2015-2016 EMP Update is the first update since the 2013-2023 EMP was completed (in academic year 2012-2013). The

2013-2023 EMP remains part of the system of institution-level plans and will be supplemented by the 2015-2016 EMP Update.

The 2013-2023 EMP yielded a set of issues (or “themes”) to be folded into subsequent institutional plans. Three sets of themes were identified:

o Student Success – including student support systems and collaboration/partnerships,

o External Factors – such as the state budget/funding mechanisms and legislation/policy changes related to education, and

o Resources – covering human, physical, technology, equipment, and fiscal.

The themes that emerged from the 2013-2023 EMP apply to most California community colleges. The 2015-2016 EMP Update differs from the

2013-2023 EMP in that it focuses on local trends (anticipated within NVC’s effective service area) and identifies challenges unique to NVC. While

the 2013-2023 document included data and projections at the individual instructional program level, the update is a more modest-sized project,

focusing on trends that will impact the institution as a whole. Underlying the projections included in the 2013-2023 EMP was the assumption

that NVC enrollments would rebound to the levels experienced in 2009-2010. Recent population projections included in the 2015-2016 EMP

Update indicate that NVC is unlikely to return to those higher enrollment levels by drawing from the historical student population within its

service area alone. The 2015-2016 EMP Update identifies local challenges which should be taken into account and addressed in other

institutional plans moving forward, to ensure that NVC continues to maintain and offer programs that meet student and community needs.

The 2015-2016 EMP Update has been described as a snapshot based on a 10,000-foot view of the college. As such, it represents a starting point

for discussion and subsequent planning activities. More detailed plans will be determined by faculty and staff affiliated with programs, services,

and committees whose responsibilities are directly related to the challenges identified. Those plans will result from evaluation of the general

strategies identified here, followed by prioritization among possible options, and finally implementation of specific course(s) of action to help

address the challenges. Examples of committees that will play a role in developing concrete action plans include, but are not limited to:

Curriculum, Distance Education, Enrollment Management, and Outreach.

The next update to NVC’s EMP is scheduled for 2018-2019. The Office of Research, Planning, and Institutional Effectiveness intends to monitor

the trends described in the 2015-2016 EMP Update and create annual summary reports highlighting any changes in the service area or student

enrollment behavior that might indicate a need to revise or reframe the challenges identified.



DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

The 2015-2016 Educational Master Plan (EMP) Update was developed September 2015 – April 2016. The Council of Presidents, comprised of the

College President and constituent group leaders (Presidents of the Academic Senate, the Administrative Senate, the Associated Students of NVC,

and the Classified Senate), served as the EMP Steering Committee. NVC’s three Vice Presidents (representing Administrative Services,

Instruction, and Student Services) were invited to attend regularly. The project was coordinated by the Office of Research, Planning, and

Institutional Effectiveness (RPIE). RPIE staff compiled the data, wrote the accompanying analysis, and facilitated discussion among the Steering

Committee as well as the campus community. In addition to the EMP Steering Committee, the Planning Committee regularly reviewed drafts of

the data, narrative, and challenges as they were being developed.

To encourage engagement with the data and to provide sufficient opportunity for input from the campus community, drafts of data included in

the EMP Update were regularly distributed among campus constituent groups, and several committees/groups included the EMP data as

information/discussion items on their agenda. This opportunity for increased engagement was requested by the EMP Steering Committee.

Drafts of the EMP data and challenges were shared with the campus community October 2015 – March 2016, and input was collected January –

March 2016 through campus forums, email, Senate meetings, Board of Trustees meetings, and committee discussions. The inclusive review

process not only increased the campus community’s awareness of the factors likely to impact NVC in the coming years but also provided

opportunity for wide-spread discussion and consideration of subsequent steps to help address the challenges.

EFFECTIVE SERVICE AREA


Effective Service Area

Residence (By Zip Code) among Fall 2014 Credit Students


NVC’s effective service area spans all

of Napa County, along with portions of

Solano and Sonoma Counties. Over

the past five years, more than 92% of

NVC’s credit students have resided

within this area. The majority of the

student population resides within

Napa County, with the 94558 zip code

(highlighted in the map) accounting for

one-third of the total credit-student

population.

City of Residence (>5% of NVC Credit Students)

% Fall 2014 Credit

Students

Napa 47.4%

Vallejo 23.0%

American Canyon 10.8%

Fairfield 7.0%

Source: NVC Enrollment Records



Participation Rates & Projected Population Growth among Population Ages 15-34

Participation Rates Population Changes

Zip

CodeLocation

2014

Population

2014

Headcount

2014

Participation

Rate

2019

Population

% Change

from 2014

2024

Population

% Change

from 2014

94558 Napa 15,816 1,753 110.8 15,838 0.1% 15,422 -2.5%

94559 Napa 7,958 660 82.9 8,014 0.7% 7,855 -1.3%

94581 Napa 641 17 26.5 653 1.8% 661 3.1%

94503

American

Canyon 5,204 616 118.4 5,543 6.5% 5,758 10.6%

94591 Vallejo 14,108 508 36.0 13,817 -2.1% 12,873 -8.7%

94589 Vallejo 8,276 451 54.5 8,209 -0.8% 7,770 -6.1%

94590 Vallejo 10,407 313 30.1 10,225 -1.7% 9,655 -7.2%

94533 Fairfield 21,295 215 10.1 21,505 1.0% 20,642 -3.1%

94534 Fairfield 8,724 180 20.6 8,705 -0.2% 8,186 -6.2%

94585 Suisun City 8,692 108 12.4 8,712 0.2% 8,258 -5.0%

95687 Vacaville 18,704 105 5.6 18,358 -1.8% 17,156 -8.3%

95688 Vacaville 8,853 55 6.2 8,750 -1.2% 8,215 -7.2%

94510 Benicia 5,743 92 16.0 5,614 -2.3% 5,190 -9.6%

94574 Saint Helena 1,805 90 49.9 1,787 -1.0% 1,721 -4.7%

95476 Sonoma 7,259 54 7.4 7,307 0.7% 7,138 -1.7%

94515 Calistoga 1,581 31 19.6 1,585 0.2% 1,543 -2.4%

94599 Yountville 335 28 83.6 324 -3.3% 298 -11.0%

94508 Angwin 1,875 16 8.5 1,698 -9.5% 1,673 -10.8%

94573 Rutherford 147 10 67.9 149 1.3% 148 0.2%

94928 Rohnert Park 16,027 9 0.6 14,817 -7.6% 14,267 -11.0%

94576 Deer Park 40 1 24.8 40 -1.4% 38 -4.5%

Overall 163,490 5,312 32.5 161,648 -1.1% 154,466 -5.5%

PARTICIPATION RATES &

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

The table reports 2014 participation

rates of the population of 15- to 34-

year-olds as well as 2019 and 2024

population projections for that age

group by zip code within the effective

service area. Students age 15 to 34

accounted for 81% of NVC’s credit

headcount and 85% of enrollments in

fall 2014. The overall participation

rate among the population of 15- to

34-year-olds within NVC’s effective

service area was 32.5 per 1,000 people

in 2014. American Canyon claimed the

highest participation rate in 2014, and

American Canyon is the only part of

NVC’s service area with significant

population growth projected through

2024. Almost all other zip codes

within the service area are projected

to experience declines in the

population on 15- to 34-year olds

(exception: Napa zip code 94581).

Across the service area, the population

of 15 to 34-year-olds is expected to

decline by 5.5% (2024 vs. 2014).

Sources: NVC Enrollment Records &

EMSI Analyst



Enrollment Patterns, By Delivery Mode

Academic Year

Instructional Delivery 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Total Headcount 9,272 8,652 8,333 8,250 8,555

In-Person Only 77.4% 79.0% 78.8% 78.6% 77.1%

Online and In-Person 17.6% 16.6% 16.7% 16.9% 18.4%

Online Only 5.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

Enrollment Patterns, By Delivery Mode and Geographic Location

Student Type Student Origin Proportion of Population, Five Years

In-Person Only Service Area 89.6%

Non-Service Area 10.4%

Online and In-Person Service Area 93.4%


Online Only Service Area 82.4%


Median Distance from Main Campus, Based on Zip Codes

Effective Service Area Student Type Median Distance from NVC (mi)

In-Person Only Service Area 5.04

Non-Service Area 31.41

Online and In-Person Service Area 5.04


Online Only Service Area 9.32


ONLINE STUDENTS

The online delivery mode has not

yielded significant increases in NVC’s

geographic impact. Over the past five

years, at least 77% of credit students

have enrolled in in-person courses

(only), and an additional 16% - 19%

enroll in both in-person and online

courses. Approximately 5% of credit

students have enrolled in courses

solely through the online format in

recent years.

Residents of the effective service area

claim more than 80% of the credit-

student population enrolled in each

type of delivery mode, demonstrating

the geographic overlap between them.

Among students residing outside of

the service area, the median distance

between the main campus and

residences of those enrolled in online

courses (only) is 8.4 miles greater than

the median distance among students

enrolled in in-person classes (only)

(compare 39.8 miles and 31.41 miles).

Source: MIS ST (Students) Files

Submitted to the California Community

Colleges Chancellor’s Office



Demographic Changes: Changes in Population of Napa County, By Age Group

2014 Population

2019 Population

5-Year Change

2024 Population

10-Year Change

Napa County 141,667 146,807 3.6% 149,272 5.4%

Under 5 years 7,660 9,006 17.6% 9,194 20.0%

5 to 9 years 8,574 7,975 -7.0% 9,087 6.0%

10 to 14 years 9,008 9,197 2.1% 8,332 -7.5%

15 to 19 years 9,236 9,085 -1.6% 9,052 -2.0%

20 to 24 years 9,266 8,891 -4.0% 8,565 -7.6%

25 to 29 years 8,662 9,461 9.2% 8,805 1.6%

30 to 34 years 8,955 9,215 2.9% 9,803 9.5%

35 to 39 years 8,690 9,281 6.8% 9,416 8.4%

40 to 44 years 9,257 8,896 -3.9% 9,300 0.5%

45 to 49 years 9,505 9,246 -2.7% 8,699 -8.5%

50 to 54 years 10,075 9,386 -6.8% 8,966 -11.0%

55 to 59 years 9,789 9,908 1.2% 9,082 -7.2%

60 to 64 years 9,165 9,535 4.0% 9,542 4.1%

65 to 69 years 7,756 8,742 12.7% 9,030 16.4%

70 to 74 years 5,586 7,316 31.0% 8,239 47.5%

75 to 79 years 3,980 4,976 25.0% 6,508 63.5%

80 to 84 years 2,923 3,201 9.5% 3,999 36.8%

85 years and over 3,577 3,489 -2.5% 3,651 2.1%

Source: EMSI Analyst

POPULATION GROWTH

AMONG AGE GROUPS

The population of Napa County is

projected to grow by 5.4% between

2014 and 2024. However, the increase

is not consistent across all age groups.

As reported in the table on the left,

the population among five age groups

is anticipated to increase by more than

15% by 2024. (10-Year increases

exceeding 15% are highlighted in bold

in the table). The anticipated growth

tends to be concentrated among the

senior population (ages 65 and older).

The population of 65- to 84-year-olds

account for four of the five age groups

with the largest anticipated growth.

The only other age group anticipated

to grow by more than 15% over the

next 10 years is the population under

5 years old.

For the past five years, the population

of 18- to 24-year-olds has accounted

for the majority of NVC credit

students. According to the 10-year

projections, the population spanning

these age groups is expected to

decrease.



Changes in Population, By Age Group

20

.0%

6.0

%

-7.5

%

-2.0

%

-7.6

%

1.6

% 9.5

%

8.4

%

0.5

%

-8.5

%

-11

.0%

-7.2

%

4.1

%

16

.4%

47

.5%

63

.5%

36

.8%

2.1

%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

10-Year Changes in Population, By Age Group

TRENDS AMONG AGE GROUPS

The graph to the left reports changes

anticipated in the size of each age group

within Napa County between 2014 and

2024. The anticipated changes are

driven by ingress and egress patterns,

along with the natural aging of the

population (as individuals move from

one age group to another). As indicated

by the graph (as well as the table on the

previous page), there are alternating

bands of increases and decreases that

emerge across the age groups.

BANDS AMONG AGE GROUPS

As illustrated by the summary graph on

the right, the population 60 years and

over is expected to increase the most

significantly between 2014 and 2014 (by

24%), followed by the population under

10 (by 13%). A modest increase (of 5%)

is anticipated among 25- to 44-year-

olds, while the population within age

groups covering high school students

and traditional college-going students in

Napa County is expected to decrease (by

6%).

12.6%

-5.7%

4.9%

-8.9%

24.2%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0 to 9 years 10 to 24 years 25 to 44 years 45 to 59 years 60 years & over

10-Year Changes in Population, By Age Group Cluster



Demographic Changes: Changes in Racial/Ethnic Population in Service Area

Racial/Ethnic Group2014

Population

2019

Population

% Change

(2019 vs. 2014)

2024

Population

% Change

(2024 vs. 2014)

Hispanic 55,882 60,240 7.8% 61,827 10.6%

Asian (including Filipino) 18,798 18,687 -0.6% 17,779 -5.4%

Black/African American 16,752 15,801 -5.7% 14,348 -14.4%

Native American 537 523 -2.7% 476 -11.4%

Pacific Islander 952 903 -5.1% 809 -15.0%

White 62,307 56,568 -9.2% 50,340 -19.2%

Two or More Races 8,507 9,175 7.9% 9,130 7.3%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Changes in Population, By Racial/Ethnic Group

% Change (2019 vs. 2014) % Change (2024 vs. 2014)

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES

Although the total population of 15- to

34-year-olds within NVC’s service area

is expected to decrease over the next

ten years, that decrease is not

distributed evenly across racial/ethnic

groups. The size of the Hispanic

population is expected to increase,

along with the number of people

reporting two or more races. The

population of all other racial/ethnic

groups is expected to decrease. Based

on these projections, the population

share claimed by Hispanics will

increase by 5.9%, and the population

share claimed by Whites will decrease

by 5.6%.

Population Shares 2014 2024

Hispanic 34.1% 40.0%

Asian 11.5% 11.5%

Black/African American

10.2% 9.3%

Native American 0.3% 0.3%

Pacific Islander 0.6% 0.5%

White 38.1% 32.5%

Two or More Races 5.2% 5.9%


FEEDER INSTITUTIONS


Feeder High Schools

High School

Vintage 929 17.4% 2,633 17.5%

Napa 898 16.8% 2,509 16.7%

Vallejo 383 7.2% 1,105 7.3%

Jesse M. Bethel 326 6.1% 1,019 6.8%

New Technology 302 5.6% 685 4.6%

American Canyon 202 3.8% 697 4.6%

Benicia 126 2.4% 391 2.6%

Armijo 111 2.1% 320 2.1%

Rodriguez 115 2.1% 378 2.5%

Hogan 103 1.9% 256 1.7%

Fairfield 93 1.7% 275 1.8%

Valley Oak 85 1.6% 238 1.6%

Justin-Siena 85 1.6% 274 1.8%

Mare Island Technology 79 1.5% 255 1.7%

Saint Helena 74 1.4% 224 1.5%

Saint Patrick-Saint Vincent 71 1.3% 226 1.5%

Vacaville 59 1.1% 179 1.2%

Napa Valley Adult School 54 1.0% 136 0.9%

Will C. Wood 52 1.0% 140 0.9%

Vanden 52 1.0% 166 1.1%

Top 20 Total 4,199 78.5% 12,106 80.5%

Other High Schools (598) 1,152 21.5% 2,933 19.5%

Total Students with HS Identified 5,351 15,039

Credit Headcount

Fall 2014

Credit Enrollment

Fall 2014

FEEDER HIGH SCHOOLS

The top 20 high schools of origin

reported by NVC students enrolled in

fall 2014 are identified in the table on

the left. These 20 institutions

accounted for more than 75% of fall

2014 credit students and more than

80% of enrollments that term (among

students with a high school reported).

Approximately half of the students

enrolled in fall 2014 identified a Napa

County high school as their high school

of origin. Vintage and Napa High

Schools accounted for more than one-

third of the students and enrollments

that semester. The list of top 20 high

schools includes institutions from

Napa and Solano Counties.

Note: The figures reported in the

table do not include students without

a high school of origin recorded at

NVC.


FEEDER INSTITUTIONS


Capture Rate among High Schools

2013-2014 Graduates

Fall 2014 New NVC Student

Capture Rate

High School

Napa 333 156 46.8%

Vintage 389 162 41.6%

Valley Oak 58 21 36.2%

American Canyon 290 92 31.7%

Vallejo 258 66 25.6%

Saint Helena 113 20 17.7%

Jesse M. Bethel 369 60 16.3%

New Technology 92 8 8.7%

Angelo Rodriguez 466 40 8.6%

Fairfield 250 14 5.6%

Calistoga 59 3 5.1%

Benicia 371 18 4.9%

Armijo 552 19 3.4%

46.8%

41.6%

36.2%31.7%

25.6%

17.7%16.3%

8.7% 8.6%5.6% 5.1% 4.9% 3.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f G

rad

uat

es E

nro

lled

at

NV

C

the

Follo

win

g Te

rm

Capture Rate among Major Feeder Schools

The “capture rates” among 2013-2014 graduates of NVC’s primary feeder schools are reported in the table. At least 3% of

2013-2014 graduates from the 13 high schools listed in the table enrolled at NVC in fall 2014. NVC’s capture rate is highest

among high schools within the Napa Valley Unified School District (including Napa, Vintage, Valley Oak, American Canyon,

and New Technology High Schools). The combined capture rate among 2013-2014 graduates from those five schools was

37.8%. The capture rate among other Napa County high schools (Saint Helena and Calistoga) was considerably lower (with a

combined capture rate of 13.4%). NVC’s capture rates among two high schools within the Vallejo City Unified School District

(Vallejo and Jesse M. Bethel High schools) exceeded the combined rate among the two high schools located up valley.

Sources: NVC Enrollment Record & DataQuest

CAPTURE

RATES

FEEDER INSTITUTIONS


Enrollment within Napa County

1,7

14

1,4

14

1,4

83 1

,60

6

1,5

86

1,5

40

1,6

09

1,5

84

1,5

73 1

,69

2

1,7

18

1,7

74

1,6

56

T O T A L

K-12 ENROLLMENT, NAPA COUNTY 2014-2015

KDGN 1st Grade 2nd grade 3rd Grade 4th Grade 5th Grade 6th Grade

7th Grade 8th Grade 9th Grade 10th Grade 11th Grade 12th Grade

ENROLLMENT WITHIN NAPA COUNTY

The graph on the left reports 2014-

2015 enrollments within Napa County

by grade level (spanning kindergarten

through 12th grade). Following the

current (2015-2016) senior class, a

general pattern of decreasing K-12

enrollments is anticipated over the

next ten years. As reported in the

table below, the size of the three-year

cohorts will decrease by 8% over the

next four years and by 11% over the

next ten (based on 2014 figures).

3-Grade Cohort Total 2014 Enrollments

9th – 11th 5,184

6th – 8th 4,766

3rd – 5th 4,732

K – 2nd 4,611

These figures do not account for

attrition across the K-12 educational

pathway.

Source: DataQuest

LABOR MARKET NEEDS


Industry & Labor Market Needs

DESCRIPTION OF DATA PRESENTED ON NEXT TWO PAGES

The tables presented below identify the job positions with the greatest demand or/and growth anticipated between 2014 and 2024. The

jobs described in the tables are categorized by the education required for an entry-level position. The table list the top 15 jobs requiring an

Associate or Bachelor degree, the top 10 jobs requiring some college, and the top 10 jobs requiring a high school diploma.

There are three lists of jobs for each level of education:

o Ongoing Demand: identifies the jobs that account for the largest proportion of total jobs projected for 2024.

The description of each job is followed by the total number of jobs in that area anticipated in 2024.

o Growth: reports the jobs that will have the largest number of new positions created between 2014 and 2024.

The description of each job is accompanied by the number of new jobs anticipated in the area.

o Market Demand: identifies the jobs with the highest market demand, unique to the region. The market demand is a composite

measure derived from the following variables:

o the total number of jobs and the total number of new jobs (across the ten-year period);

o the annual number of openings (summed across the ten-year period, including new and replacement jobs);

o the difference (“gap”) between annual openings and the anticipated number of people that will complete training qualifying

them to fill the position (by completing programs offered by NVC or other institutions within the area); and

o the location quotient reflecting the concentration of occupations within the region (relative the national average).

The description of each job is accompanied by a value rank for market demand (with 1 representing jobs with the highest demand).

The labor market demand and growth within Napa County is summarized on the following page. That information is followed by a summary

of the demand and growth anticipated within the surrounding region. The surrounding region is defined as the seven counties of the Bay

Area that are closest to Napa (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, Solano, and Sonoma; Bay Area minus San Mateo and

Santa Clara Counties), as well as Lake and Mendocino Counties.

Throughout the tables below, the jobs associated with existing NVC courses or programs (based on Classification of Instructional Program

(CIP) code) are italicized.

Source (for tables on next two pages): EMSI Analyst

LABOR MARKET NEEDS


Labor Market Demand & Growth: Napa County

Ongoing Demand Growth Market Demand

Description Description Description

Registered Nurses 1,909 General and Operations Managers 248 Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 37

General and Operations Managers 1,600 Registered Nurses 175 Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners 52

Accountants and Auditors 679 Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 101 Accountants and Auditors 55

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Ed. 516 Accountants and Auditors 88 Graphic Designers 72

Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 442 Sales Managers 63 Substitute Teachers 74

Sales Managers 419 Management Analysts 56 Financial Managers 83

Management Analysts 370 Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners 47 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Ed. 86

Substitute Teachers 368 Recreation Workers 45 Recreation Workers 92

Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and CTE 352 Child, Family, and School Social Workers 45 Human Resources Specialists 95

Financial Managers 286 Human Resources Specialists 44 Marketing Managers 99

Child, Family, and School Social Workers 276 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Ed. 37 Dental Hygienists 113

Industrial Production Managers 254 Financial Managers 32 Middle School Teachers, Except Special and CTE 114

Middle School Teachers, Except Special and CTE 232 Cost Estimators 31 Agricultural and Food Science Technicians 115

Administrative Services Managers 221 Industrial Production Managers 30 Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and CTE 122

Human Resources Specialists 219 Social and Community Service Managers 28 General and Operations Managers 141

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 1,063 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 296 Massage Therapists 22

Massage Therapists 615 Nursing Assistants 107 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 32

Psychiatric Technicians 604 First-Line Supervisors of Production/Operating Work 82 First-Line Supervisors of Production/Operating Work 46

Teacher Assistants 590 Massage Therapists 61 Nursing Assistants 85

Nursing Assistants 511 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 51 Medical Assistants 87

First-Line Supervisors of Production/Operating Work 406 Medical Assistants 41 Teacher Assistants 88

Medical Assistants 301 Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 30 Dental Assistants 106

Dental Assistants 260 Firefighters 21 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 128

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists 239 Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repair 19 Firefighters 137

Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 209 Skincare Specialists 17 Library Technicians 154

Computer User Support Specialists 17

Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing 1,519 Security Guards 307 Separating, ... Precipitating, and Stil l Machine Setters 3

Office Clerks, General 1,478 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing 302 Packaging and Fil l ing Machine Operators 5

Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 1,409 Packaging and Fil l ing Machine Operators 262 Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks 6

Carpenters 1,119 Hotel, Motel, and Resort Desk Clerks 212 Demonstrators and Product Promoters 7

Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 1,050 Separating, ... Precipitating, and Stil l Machine Setters 202 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing 9

Separating, ... Precipitating, and Stil l Machine Setters 1,033 Customer Service Representatives 190 Carpenters 17

Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 988 First-Line Supervisors of Food Prep and Serving Work 176 Security Guards 26

Packaging and Fil l ing Machine Operators 940 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 174 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 29

Security Guards 832 Office Clerks, General 163 First-Line Supervisors of Food Prep and Serving Work 30

Demonstrators and Product Promoters 752 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 160 Tour Guides and Escorts 36

Total

Jobs

New

Jobs

Value

Rank

Requiring a

High School

Diploma

Requiring an

Associates

or Bachelors

Degree

Requiring

Some

College

(Includes

Certificates)

LABOR MARKET NEEDS


Labor Market Demand & Growth: Surrounding Region

Ongoing Demand Growth Market Demand

Description Description Description

General & Operations Managers 47,673 Software Developers, Applications 8,391 Market Research Analysts & Marketing Specialists 1

Registered Nurses 45,268 General & Operations Managers 7,266 Software Developers, Applications 2

Accountants & Auditors 31,473 Management Analysts 5,733 Computer Systems Analysts 3

Software Developers, Applications 28,409 Market Research Analysts & Marketing Specialists 5,553 Accountants & Auditors 9

Management Analysts 26,751 Registered Nurses 5,375 Marketing Managers 23

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Ed. 20,692 Computer Systems Analysts 4,889 Network & Computer Systems Administrators 29

Market Research Analysts & Marketing Specialists 20,499 Software Developers, Systems Software 4,622 Recreation Workers 33

Computer Systems Analysts 19,560 Accountants & Auditors 4,274 Financial Managers 38

Software Developers, Systems Software 18,899 Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Ed. 2,577 Teachers & Instructors, All Other 39

Financial Managers 14,940 Computer & Information Systems Managers 2,536 Financial Analysts 40

Secondary School Teachers, Except Special & CTE 12,226 Computer Programmers 2,080 Aerospace Engineers 48

Sales Managers 12,065 Recreation Workers 1,934 Human Resources Specialists 55

Recreation Workers 11,486 Web Developers 1,925 Computer Hardware Engineers 56

Computer & Information Systems Managers 11,204 Network & Computer Systems Administrators 1,891 Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Technical 65

Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education 11,160 Sales Managers 1,446 Sales Engineers 70

Teacher Assistants 20,325 Nursing Assistants 4,144 Teacher Assistants 52

Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 19,181 Computer User Support Specialists 4,138 Telecommunications Equipment Install & Repair 57

Nursing Assistants 18,106 Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 2,752 Nursing Assistants 78

Computer User Support Specialists 14,882 Teacher Assistants 2,214 Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 80

Medical Assistants 12,713 Medical Assistants 2,139 Firefighters 82

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, & Cosmetologists 10,844 Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 2,010 Library Technicians 84

Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses 9,529 Hairdressers, Hairstylists, & Cosmetologists 1,609 Computer, Automated Teller, & Office Machine Repair 138

Dental Assistants 7,703 Telecommunications Equipment Install & Repair 1,216 Computer User Support Specialists 140

First-Line Supervisors of Production/Operating Work 6,620 Heating, Air Conditioning, & Refrigeration Mechanics & Installers1,085 First-Line Supervisors of Production/Operating Work 149

Firefighters 5,789 Emergency Medical Technicians & Paramedics 1,005 Manicurists & Pedicurists 172

Office Clerks, General 58,226 Secretaries & Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, & Executive7,380 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 6

Secretaries & Administrative Assistants… 44,311 Customer Service Representatives 6,607 Business Operations Specialists, All Other 7

Customer Service Representatives 34,226 Office Clerks, General 6,583 Carpenters 11

Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 33,321 Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 4,929 Office & Administrative Support Workers, All Other 16

First-Line Supervisors of Office & Admin Workers 28,477 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 4,791 Demonstrators & Product Promoters 20

Business Operations Specialists, All Other 26,663 Security Guards 4,192 Office Clerks, General 22

Carpenters 25,306 Carpenters 3,936 Security Guards 25

Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 24,839 First-Line Supervisors of Office & Admin Workers 3,532 First-Line Supervisors of Office & Admin Workers 28

Security Guards 23,939 First-Line Supervisors of Food Prep. & Serving Workers 3,325 Social & Human Service Assistants 32

First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 23,140 Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Manufacturing 3,246 Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 34

Total

Jobs

New

Jobs

Value

Rank

Requiring a

High School

Diploma

Requiring

an

Associates

or Bachelors

Degree

Requiring

Some

College

(Includes

Certificates)

LABOR MARKET NEEDS


Summary of Labor Market Demand: Napa County & Surrounding Region The tables below summarize the information presented on the previous two pages, focusing on the jobs that appeared on at least two of the three

lists and requiring at least some college coursework.



General & Operations Managers

Accountants & Auditors

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Ed.

Market Research Analysts & Marketing Specialists

Financial Managers

Human Resources Specialists

Registered Nurses

Sales Managers

Management Analysts

Substitute Teachers

Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and CTE

Child, Family, & School Social Workers

Industrial Production Managers

Middle School Teachers, Except Special and CTE

Meeting, Convention, & Event Planners

Recreation Workers

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Massage Therapists

Nursing Assistants

First-Line Supervisors of Production/Operating Work

Medical Assistants

Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses

Teacher Assistants

Dental Assistants

Firefighters

Summary of Napa County

Requiring an

Associates or

Bachelors

Degree

Requiring

Some College

(Includes

Certificates)

All 3 Lists

2 of 3 Lists

All 3 Lists

2 of 3 Lists

Accountants & Auditors

Software Developers, Applications

Market Research Analysts & Marketing Specialists

Computer Systems Analysts

Recreation Workers

General & Operations Managers

Registered Nurses

Management Analysts

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Ed.

Software Developers, Systems Software

Financial Managers

Sales Managers

Computer & Information Systems Managers

Network & Computer Systems Administrators

Teacher Assistants

Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Nursing Assistants

Computer User Support Specialists

Medical Assistants

Hairdressers, Hairstylists, & Cosmetologists

Licensed Practical & Licensed Vocational Nurses

First-Line Supervisors of Production/Operating Work

Firefighters

Telecommunications Equipment Install & Repair

Summary of Surrounding Region

Requiring an

Associates or

Bachelors

Degree

Requiring

Some College

(Includes

Certificates)

2 of 3 Lists

All 3 Lists

All 3 Lists

2 of 3 Lists

LABOR MARKET NEEDS


Major Groups with Anticipated Demand or Growth

Education Level

Napa County Surrounding Region

Requiring Associate’s or Bachelor’s Degree

11 Management 30% 15 Computer & Mathematical 23%

13 Business & Financial Operations 26% 11 Management 19%

25 Education, Training, & Library 17% 13 Business & Financial Operations 19%

29 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 9% 25 Education, Training, & Library 15%

19 Life, Physical, & Social Science 4% 17 Architecture & Engineering 8%

21 Community & Social Service 4% 41 Sales & Related 8%

27 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 4% 29 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 4%

39 Personal Care & Service 4% 39 Personal Care & Service 4%

Requiring Some College

31 Healthcare Support 25% 31 Healthcare Support 19%

29 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 19% 49 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 19%

25 Education, Training, & Library 13% 25 Education, Training, & Library 13%

39 Personal Care & Service 13% 29 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 13%

15 Computer & Mathematical 6% 39 Personal Care & Service 13%

33 Protective Service 6% 15 Computer & Mathematical 6%

49 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 6% 33 Protective Service 6%

51 Production 6% 51 Production 6%

53 Transportation & Material Moving 6% 53 Transportation & Material Moving 6%

Requiring High School

43 Office & Administrative Support 36% 43 Office & Administrative Support 40%

41 Sales & Related 14% 41 Sales & Related 27%

51 Production 14% 13 Business & Financial Operations 7%

33 Protective Service 7% 21 Community & Social Service 7%

35 Food Preparation & Serving Related 7% 33 Protective Service 7%

39 Personal Care & Service 7% 35 Food Preparation & Serving Related 7%

47 Construction & Extraction 7% 47 Construction & Extraction 7%

49 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 7%

MAJOR GROUPS WITH

ANTICIPATED

DEMAND/GROWTH

The table on the left summarizes the information from the Labor Market Demand and Growth tables, by reporting the Major Group Codes associated with the positions projected to claim the largest number of positions, the largest number of new positions, or/and the highest market demand in Napa County and the surrounding region by 2024. The Major Groups claiming at least 10% of the positions for both Napa County and the surrounding region (as reported on pages 15 and 16) are highlighted. Among positions requiring at least some college, positions associated with business, healthcare, education, and personal services are projected to experience the most growth in both Napa County and the larger surrounding region. Source: EMSI Analyst

LABOR MARKET NEEDS


Industries with High Market Demand Jobs, Based on Inverse Staffing Patterns Napa County

NAICS Industry Jobs 2014

Jobs 2024

312130 Wineries 3,818 4,860

903611 Elementary and Secondary Schools (Local Government) 1,655 1,790

721110 Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels 908 1,293

622110 General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 1,005 983

902622 Hospitals (State Government) 698 818

561612 Security Guards and Patrol Services 420 718

424820 Wine and Distilled Alcoholic Beverage Merchant Wholesalers 343 523

903999 Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 428 491

561320 Temporary Help Services 263 447

236115 New Single-Family Housing Construction (except For-Sale Builders) 310 340

Surrounding Region

NAICS Industry Jobs 2014

Jobs 2024

54151 Computer Systems Design and Related Services 36,616 55,959

90399 Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 22,848 24,870

55111 Management of Companies and Enterprises 20,750 24,018

90361 Education (Local Government) 19,919 21,409

62412 Services for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities 13,869 19,615

90261 Education (State Government) 16,666 18,847

56161 Investigation, Guard, and Armored Car Services 12,891 15,927

54121 Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and Payroll Services 12,921 14,764

23611 Residential Building Construction 11,307 13,922

54161 Management Consulting Services 7,772 10,887

INDUSTRIES WITH HIGH

MARKET DEMAND JOBS

The tables on the left identify the top

ten industries associated with the 35

market demand jobs listed on pages 15

and 16 (final columns of the tables) for

Napa County and the surrounding

region. These industries were identified

based on inverse staffing patterns and

are grouped by the North American

Industry Classification System (NAICS).

The wine industry jobs that are

associated with the 35 high market

demand jobs for Napa County (identified

on page 15) are distributed by required

education level as follows:

Typical Education for Entry-Level Position

Proportion of Wine Industry

Jobs 2024

High Market Demand Jobs

Degree 6.2%

Some College 4.0%

High School 29.2%

Other Jobs

Degree 4.4%

Some College --

High School 23.2%

Less Than High School

33.0%


ENROLLMENT TRENDS


Credit-Student Count (Headcount) and Enrollment Trends

9,247 8,766 8,422 8,525 8,668

39,313

38,356

36,503 36,63936,064

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

8,000

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

9,000

9,200

9,400

2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Enro

llmen

ts

Stu

den

t C

ou

nt

Academic Year

Student Count and Enrollments, 2010-2011 through 2014-2015

Student Count Enrollments

Trends in Credit-Student Enrollment Behavior, 2010-2011 through 2014-2015 Academic

Year Enrollment : Headcount

Ratio

Average Unit Load

Proportion of Full-Time

Students

2010-2011 4.25 8.6 35.0%

2011-2012 4.38 9.0 36.3%

2012-2013 4.33 9.1 35.8%

2013-2014 4.30 9.2 36.8%

2014-2015 4.16 8.9 35.3%

Between 2010-2011 and 2013-2014, the proportion of full-time students (enrolled in at least 12 units) increased from 35% to 37%, and the average unit load increased from 8.6 to 9.2. In 2014-2015, the average unit load and the proportion of students enrolled full-time decreased (approximating 2010-2011 levels).

In addition to changes in student enrollment behavior, the ratio of enrollment : headcount for 2014-2015

was impacted by changes in enrollment reporting practices -- particularly within programs that offer

courses that span beyond the standard 18-week semester (e.g., Criminal Justice, Health Occupations).

HEADCOUNT AND

ENROLLMENT TRENDS

Between 2010-2011 and 2013-2014,

annual changes in credit-student

enrollment and headcount moved

together – decreasing over the first

three years and then increasing in 2013-

2014. The table below reports annual

changes in headcount and enrollment,

as well as the changes across the five-

year period (highlighted in the final row

of the table).

Year Headcount Enrollment

2011-2012 -5.2% -2.4%

2012-2013 -3.9% -4.8%

2013-2014 1.2% 0.4%

2014-2015 1.7% -1.6%

Total -6.3% -8.3%

In 2014-2015, headcount increased (by

1.7%), while enrollment decreased (by

1.6%). NVC served more credit students

that year. However, those students

enrolled in fewer courses per student

(4.16 vs. 4.30 enrollments per student).

Changes in the enrollment-to-headcount

ratio as well as other changes in student

enrollment behavior are conveyed in the

table on the left.


ENROLLMENT TRENDS


Credit-Student Headcount vs. Unemployment Rates

Annual Change Unemployment (July)

Headcount (Fall)

Annual Change Unemployment (July)

Headcount (Fall)

2005 to 2006 -0.5% -1.2% 2010 to 2011 -- -3.0%

2006 to 2007 0.1% 5.7% 2011 to 2012 -1.4% -5.7%

2007 to 2008 1.0% -0.1% 2012 to 2013 -1.6% 1.7%

2008 to 2009 3.3% 4.3% 2013 to 2014 -1.1% -1.0%

2009 to 2010 1.5% -4.4% 2014 to 2015 -1.2% -0.8%

4.3% 3.8% 3.9% 4.9% 8.2% 9.7% 9.7% 8.3% 6.7% 5.6% 4.4%

6,8706,790

7,175 7,167

7,472

7,142

6,929

6,535

6,6486,584 6,532

6,000

6,200

6,400

6,600

6,800

7,000

7,200

7,400

7,600

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Hea

dco

un

t

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e

Napa County Unemployment vs Fall Headcount,2005 to 2015

July Unemployment Fall Headcount

CREDIT STUDENT COUNT VS.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

Between 2006 and 2009, trends in NVC

credit-student headcount tended to

reflect changes in the unemployment

rate. Both the unemployment rate and

enrollment increased across the four-

year period (by 4.4% and 10.0%,

respectively). On average, for every 1%

increase in the unemployment rate, the

number of credit students increased by

112 (2006 – 2009).

Between 2010 and 2012, NVC was not

able to keep pace with the continued

increase in unemployment following the

recession. Between 2010 and 2013,

annual changes in enrollment were in

the direction opposite of changes in

unemployment (or decreases among

enrollment were more pronounced, as

in 2012), as shown in the table on the

left.

Between 2013 and 2015, annual

changes in enrollment reflected the

decrease in local unemployment rates.

Sources: Employment Development

Department (Napa MSA), NVC

Enrollment Records

ENROLLMENT TRENDS


Enrollment & Section Offerings: Credit & Non-Credit Programs

1,306 1,233 1,208 1,340 1,425

39,313

38,356

36,503

36,63936,064

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Sect

ion

s

Enro

llmen

ts

Academic Year

Credit Enrollments versus Section Offerings, 2010-2011 through 2014-2015

Sections Enrollments

172 70 61 53 49

5739

27082367

2012 1704

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

400

1400

2400

3400

4400

5400

6400

2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Sect

ion

s

Enro

llmen

ts

Non-Credit Enrollments versus Section Offerings,2010-2011 through 2014-2015

Section Offerings Enrollment

ENROLLMENT & SECTION

OFFERINGS

NVC reduced the number of credit and non-credit sections between 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 to align offerings with existing resources. As shown in the graphs on the left, credit courses were prioritized over non-credit courses. Between 2010-2011 and 2012-2013, non-credit offerings were reduced by 64.5%, while credit offerings were reduced by 7.5%.

Annual Changes in Section Offerings

Year Credit Non-Credit

2011-2012 -5.6% -59.3%

2012-2013 -2.0% -12.9%

2013-2014 10.9% -13.1%

2014-2015 6.3% -7.5%

Total 9.1% -71.5%

Although credit section offerings were increased beginning in 2013-2014, those increases did not yield corresponding increases in enrollment.

Annual Changes in Enrollment

Year Credit Non-Credit

2011-2012 -2.4% -52.8%

2012-2013 -4.8% -12.6%

2013-2014 0.4% -15.0%

2014-2015 -1.6% -15.3%

Total -8.3% -70.3%


ENROLLMENT TRENDS


Detail on Credit & Non-Credit Offerings

Credit Offerings

2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Credit Sections 1,306 1,233 1,208 1,340 1,425

Degree-Applicable 91.9% 92.4% 92.6% 90.7% 91.6%

Occupational 32.6% 32.4% 31.6% 29.6% 27.6%

Basic Skills 7.7% 7.1% 6.9% 8.7% 8.0%

*Notes: The percentages reported in this table do not sum to 100% because some

courses fall into multiple categories (e.g., degree-applicable and occupational; degree-

applicable and basic skills). The “occupational” category includes courses coded as

“somewhat occupational,” as well as those that are coded as “occupational.”

Non-Credit Offerings

2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015

Non-Credit Sections 172 70 61 53 49

Courses for Persons with Substantial Disabilities

41.9% 48.6% 59.0% 67.9% 53.1%

English as a Second Language (ESL)

12.8% 41.4% 32.8% 26.4% 38.8%

Elementary and Secondary Basic Skills

6.4% 5.7% 1.6% -- --

Parenting -- 1.4% 3.3% -- --

Short-Term Vocational 3.5% 2.9% 3.3% 5.7% 8.2%

Courses for Older Adults 35.5% -- -- -- --

CREDIT & NON-CREDIT OFFERINGS

Although the number of credit course

offerings has fluctuated over the past

five years, the proportion of sections

assigned to degree-applicable,

occupational, and basic skills courses

among credit offerings has been

relatively stable. Degree-applicable

courses have claimed more than 90% of

credit sections over the past five years,

while occupational courses claimed

approximately 30% and basic skills

courses claimed less than 10%.

The balance among types of non-credit

sections has fluctuated dramatically

over the past five years. Courses for

students with substantial disabilities

have accounted for the largest share of

non-credit sections (and the majority of

those offerings over the last three

years). The proportion of sections

claimed by ESL and short-term

vocational courses within the non-credit

program have increased, as course

offerings within the remaining three

categories have been suspended.

Source: MIS CB (Course) Files Submitted

to California Community Colleges

Chancellor’s Office

ENROLLMENT TRENDS


Impact of Repeatability In 2013, the California Community Colleges Board of Governors enacted regulations that restricted repeated enrollment in credit courses. With a few exceptions, the new regulations limited students to one successful completion for each credit course.

Repeat Enrollments at the Institutional Level

Repeat Enrollments at the Program Level

Proportion of Enrollments Claimed by Repeaters, By Age Group

Institutional Level Among 5 Programs

Age Group 2010-2011 2014-2015 2010-2011 2014-2015

Under 21 5.2% 1.5% 15.3% 5.5%

21 to 24 7.2% 1.8% 20.6% 5.6%

25 to 29 7.1% 2.8% 17.6% 4.1%

30 to 39 9.5% 2.8% 20.2% 4.6%

40 to 49 12.5% 5.0% 24.2% 8.0%

50 to 59 20.5% 7.7% 33.4% 12.3%

60 and above 44.3% 38.5% 55.2% 48.4%

2010-2011 2014-2015 Change

Number of Repeat Enrollments 3,154 981 -2,173

Proportion of Credit Enrollments 7.8% 2.8% -5.0%

Repeat Enrollment

2010-2011 2014-2015 Change

Physical Education Health and Athletics 1,701 434 -1,267

Music 201 66 -135

Art 145 26 -119

Viticulture & Winery Technology 119 12 -107

Theater Arts 73 17 -56

Repeat Enrollment

IMPACT OF REPEATABILITY

Repeatability restrictions impacted students’ enrollment behavior, as reported in the table on the left. At the institutional level, there were 2,173 fewer repeat enrollments in 2014-2015 than there had been in 2010-2011. While enrollments among students in courses that they had already successfully completed accounted for almost 8% of credit enrollments in 2010-2011, the figure had decreased to less than 3% by 2014-2015.

Repeatability impacted some programs more than others. The table on the left identifies the five programs that experienced the largest decreases in repeated enrollments between 2010-2011 and 2014-2015. The decrease in enrollments across those five programs (1,684 fewer enrollments in 2014-2015) accounted for more than 75% of the total decrease in repeated enrollments across the institution (2,173).

The final table reports the proportion of enrollments claimed by repeaters within each age group. While repeated enrollments now account for a smaller proportion of enrollments across all age groups, they continue to account for more than 5% of enrollments among students ages 40 and above.

Sources: MIS SX & ST Files

STUDENT PROGRESSION & PERSISTENCE


Retention, Successful Course Completion & Persistence Rates

Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014

Student Count 6,943 6,763 6,382 6,403 6,403

Retention Rate 86.5% 87.2% 89.1% 88.5% 88.0%

Successful Course Completion Rate 73.6% 72.7% 74.7% 72.8% 72.4%

Number of Students Completing at

Least One Credit Course5,813 5,569 5,270 5,229 5,283

Persistence among Completers

Spring Persistence Rate 74.1% 76.8% 78.0% 77.6% 77.0%

Fall Persistence Rate 52.5% 52.8% 55.2% 55.7% --

Persistence among Non-Completers



Persistence Overall



Term

PERSISTENCE TO

EDUCATIONAL GOAL

The table to the left reports the

number of credit students enrolled in

the five most recent fall terms, as well

as the retention and successful course

completion rates for those terms, and

the persistence rates from term-to-

term (which track students that are

continuing to pursue their educational

goals). The persistence rates among

students that successfully completed

at least one credit course

(“completers”) are reported alongside

the persistence rates among students

that did not successfully complete a

course (“non-completers”). Fall-to-

spring persistence (within the same

academic year) as well as fall-to-fall

persistence (from one academic year

to the next) are reported.

The differences between the

persistence rates of completers and

non-completers are statistically

significant for each of the five years

examined.

Source: MIS SX (Enrollments) Files

Submitted to the California Community

Colleges Chancellor’s Office

Retention Rate: The percent of students who are retained in courses from

Census Day through the end of the semester (i.e., who do not withdraw)

out of the total students enrolled in courses.

Successful Course Completion Rate: The percent of students who receive

grades of A, B, C, or CR/P (credit/pass) out of the total students enrolled in

courses as of Census Day.

Persistence Rate: The percent of students enrolled in one term that enroll

in at least one credit course during a subsequent term.

DEF

INIT

ION

S

FACILITIES USAGE & NEEDS


Credit Enrollments by Location 2014-2015

NVC Main Campus88.8%

Upper Valley Campus 0.3%

Other Location1.5%

Online9.1%

Independent Study0.2%Work Experience

0.1%

Proportion of Enrollments By Location, 2014-2015

CREDIT ENROLLMENTS

BY LOCATION

In 2014-2015, courses offered on NVC’s

Main Campus accounted for almost 90%

of credit enrollments (88.8%). Online

courses accounted for the majority of

the remaining balance, claiming 9.1% of

credit enrollments. “Other” locations

include local high schools. Together,

they accounted for 1.5% of credit

enrollments in 2014-2015, with New

Technology High School accounting for

the largest proportion of enrollments at

any one location. Other than the Main

Campus and online education, no

individual locations – including the

Upper Valley Campus – generated more

than 0.53% of credit enrollments.


Lecture Room Capacity

The graphs on the next two pages report the number of students attending lecture (non-lab) courses by time of the day and day of the week (Monday through Friday). Enrollments in courses assigned to lecture rooms are reported in 30-minute increments spanning 8:00 a.m. through 7:30 p.m. Three reference lines are imposed on each graph to convey the maximum number of students assigned to classrooms with updated technology, the maximum capacity without the modular classrooms, and the maximum capacity including the modular classrooms. These three reference lines represent 470, 1,496, and 1,772 enrollments, respectively. Most students are on campus attending classes between 9:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. The lowest number of students are on campus attending classes from 8:00 – 9:00 a.m. and 4:00 – 5:30 p.m. Source: NVC Enrollment Records, Fall 2014



Lecture Room Capacity, Morning through Early Afternoon, By Day of the Week

The enrollment patterns throughout the morning (with an increase in the number of students attending classes occurring every 1-1/2 hours) reflect NVC’s block schedule. The 9:00 – 9:30 surge includes students in classes scheduled 8:00 – 9:15 as well as those in classes that begin at 9:00. From 10:30 – 11:00 Monday through Thursday and from 12:00 – 12:30 on Monday and Wednesday, enrollments exceed the capacity of lecture rooms without the modular classrooms. During the peak enrollment period (10:30 – 11:00) on Tuesday and Thursday, enrollments exceed the maximum capacity of NVC facilities. The decrease in the number of students attending classes on Tuesdays and Thursdays 12:30 – 1:00 reflects the decrease in the number of classes offered at that time, to accommodate college hour. Note: The enrollment figures reported in the graph include students in lecture courses that are assigned to rooms coded for uses other than

“lecture.”



Lecture Room Capacity, Early Afternoon through Evening, By Day of the Week

The dominant preference for courses in the morning and early afternoon is shown on this graph, along with the one on the previous page.

Between 9:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m., more than 1,000 students attend class every 30 minutes (average: 1,036 students). The average number of

students attending classes each 30 minutes between 4:00 and 5:30 is 430. The average number of students in classes in the evening (5:30 –

8:00) is 627 for each 30-minute period.

Note: The enrollment figures reported in the graph include students in lecture courses that are assigned to rooms coded for uses other than

“lecture.”



Location of Non-Credit Courses,

Fall 2014

English as a Second

Language (ESL)

Short-Term Vocational

Courses for Persons with Substantial Disabilities

Upper Valley Campus (UVC) X X

Main Campus X

Napa Valley Support Services (NVSS) X

Products Services & Industries (PSI) X

Veterans Home X

St. Helena Family Center X

Calistoga Presbyterian Church X

Upper Valley Campus, 7%

NVC Main Campus, 10%

Calistoga Presbyterian Church,

10%

Napa Valley Support Services, 21%

Products Services & Industries, 9%

Saint Helena Family Center, 7%

Veterans Home, 36%

Proportion of Non-Credit Enrollments by Location, Fall 2014

NON-CREDIT ENROLLMENTS BY LOCATION

Although NVC’s Non-Credit Program is

administered by the Upper Valley

Campus (UVC) in St. Helena, the UVC

facility accounted for only a fraction

(7%) of non-credit enrollments in fall

2014. Classes offered at the Veterans

Home in Yountville accounted for the

largest proportion of non-credit

enrollments (36%) that term.

As summarized in the accompanying

table, all non-credit short-term

vocational courses in fall 2014 were

offered at the UVC or the main campus,

while non-credit ESL courses were

offered at the UVC or up-valley

community locations. All classes held at

the Veterans Home, Napa Valley

Support Services, and Products Services

and Industries in fall 2014 were

designed for persons with substantial

disabilities.

Sources: NVC Enrollment Records and

MIS CB (Course) Files submitted to

California Community Colleges

Chancellor’s Office



Assigned Square Footage (ASF): Lab Space

Lab Space Needs among Individual Instructional Programs

Program Required ASF Based on Fall 2014 WSCH

Actual Assigned ASF

Difference (Actual -

Required)

ASF per Station

(Standard)

Chemistry 3,894 2,470 -1,424 60

Physics 1,383 1,209 -174 60

Computer Information Systems Application / Business

1,381 1,456 75 40

Engineering 674 995 321 75

Geology / Earth Science 586 928 342 60

Lecture Space on the Main NVC Campus

ASF with

Temporary Buildings ASF without

Temporary Buildings

Required ASF, Based on Fall 2014 WSCH 19,905 19,905

Actual ASF 31,611 26,393

Difference (Actual - Required) 11,706 6,488

Full-Time Equivalent Students in Temporary & Non-Lecture Spaces

Full-Time Equivalent Students

(FTES) % of Total FTES

FTES Generated in Temporary Classrooms, Fall 2014

260 16.3%

FTES Lectures Taught in Non-Lecture Classrooms, Fall 2014

112 7.0%

ASSIGNED SQUARE FOOTAGE: LAB & LECTURE SPACE

The table on the left identifies the five

instructional programs with the largest

lab space needs. The required space

calculations are based on Utilization and

Space Standards provided by the Board

of Governors. Chemistry and Physics are

currently operating below the standard

ASF requirements for lab space. Lab

spaces assigned to the other three

programs listed in the table are

approaching their maximum capacity,

with no room for program growth.

More than 25% of lecture space needs

on the main campus are addressed by

the temporary (modular) classrooms. In

fall 2014, the modular classrooms

accounted for 16% of total full-time

equivalent students (FTES). An

additional 7% of FTES was generated

from lectures taught in classrooms that

were designated for a different (non-

lecture) purpose.

Note: The figures on this page report

ASF on the Main Campus for face-to-

face classes only (for both labs and

lectures).

Source: Napa Valley Community College

District Room Detail Report 2015-2016

PROGRAM CLUSTERING


Description of Program Clustering

The graph on the following page provides a snapshot of the fill rate and productivity levels among NVC instructional programs. The fill rates

and productivity were calculated across three academic years, spanning 2012-2013 through 2014-2015. Summary statistics for three clusters

of programs (defined by productivity levels) are reported alongside the graph.

o Fill rate compares the capacity of the class (based on size of the classroom facility and/or student-to-faculty ratio requirements) with the

number of actual enrollments in the class. It is calculated as: Number of Seats that Are Occupied (Actual) as of Census Day.

Total Number of Seats Available (Capacity)

Program-level fill rates (covering all courses offered within each discipline or program across the three-year period) are reported. As

shown in the graph and accompanying summary statistics, fill rate among instructional programs ranged from 29.6% to 121%. The

median fill rate among instructional programs was 83%. Lines marking two thresholds – represented by the median fill rate and 100%

fill rate – have been imposed on the graph.

o Productivity compares the number of full-time equivalent students (FTES) with the number of full-time equivalent faculty (FTEF). It is

calculated as: Number of Full-Time Equivalent Students (FTES). Productivity among instructional programs ranged from 1.1 to 25.9.

Number of Full-Time Equivalent Faculty (FTEF)

The median productivity was 12.6. In addition to the line representing the median productivity among instructional programs, a line

representing the productivity target identified by the California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office (17.5) has been imposed on the

graph for reference.

As indicated by the scatterplot and the summary statistics reported on the next page, productivity tends to increase with fill rate. The two

variables are highly correlated (r = 0.466; p < 0.005), as are productivity and average section size (r = 0.841; p < 0.0001). The average section

size increases steadily across the three clusters defined by productivity – from 19.4 to 28.3 to 39.0 students per section. Some programs

within each cluster claimed fill rates above 100%.

The information presented in the scatterplot can be used to inform scheduling and other strategies designed to increase enrollment at the

program level. At the institutional level, the information can be used to inform decision-making and resource-allocation processes and

monitor the balance between small programs and larger programs.

PROGRAM CLUSTERING


Program Clustering By Fill Rate & Productivity

SUMMARY STATISTICS

o Instructional Programs with

Productivity Greater than 17.5

Number of Programs: 20

Productivity Range: 17.70 – 25.9

Productivity Average: 20.0

Fill Rate Range: 73.7% - 111.9%

Fill Rate Average: 91.0%

Average Section Size: 39.0


Productivity Less than 17.5 and

Greater than 12.6








Productivity Less than 12.6








CHALLENGES & ASSOCIATED STRATEGIES


Challenges and Associated Strategies This section presents eight local challenges (specific to Napa Valley College) that emerged from review of the data included in the 2015-2016

Educational Master Plan Update. The tables present each challenge (identified at the top of the table), followed by a number of general

strategies for the College to consider to address each challenge. The final row of each table identifies the data that were used to identify the

challenge and associated strategies – to strength the linkage between data, evidence, institutional planning, and decision-making.

Lack of anticipated growth in population of 15 to 34-year-olds

STR

ATE

GIE

S

o Increase recruitment of recent high school graduates who do not enroll immediately in two- or four-year institutions

o Cultivate relationships with K-12 schools to encourage early awareness of and engagement with Napa Valley College and its programs

o Focus outreach on subpopulations with anticipated growth among effective student population (e.g., American Canyon, Hispanic)

o Create a full and inviting college experience to attract and retain students

o Explore various means of expanding service area and increasing access to course offerings

o Increase communication and community awareness of NVC, offerings, and programs

o Improve processes to facilitate enrollment, persistence, and goal attainment among students

DA

TA

Effective Service Area: o Participation Rates & Projected Population Growth o Enrollment Patterns, By Delivery Mode o Demographic Changes

Feeder Institutions: o Feeder High Schools o Capture Rate among High Schools o Enrollment within Napa County

Generating sufficient enrollment to remain

sustainable

STR

ATE

GIE

S

o Identify programs and course offerings that could generate additional FTES (by increasing fill rates and productivity, redistributing class offerings, providing additional academic opportunities for students)

o Collect student and community input and analyze enrollment patterns to inform schedule-development process and anticipate student needs

o Expand services, availability of services, programs, curriculum, and supports to increase access and enhance the student experience

o Apply a balanced approach to decision-making, to ensure sufficient resources to support programs and services

DA

TA

Effective Service Area: o Participation Rates & Projected Population Growth

Enrollment Trends: o Headcount & Enrollment Trends o Credit-Student Headcount vs. Unemployment o Enrollment & Section Offerings

Program Clustering: o Fill Rates & Productivity

Enrollment Stability & Growth-Related Challenges



Anticipated industry growth within Napa County tends to be concentrated in areas that do not require an Associate’s Degree

for entry-level positions

STR

ATE

GIE

S o Explore opportunities to repackage and/or rebrand current courses and programs to communicate alignment with industry growth and needs

o Explore short-term courses to address needs for specialized training (including delivery through community education classes, non-credit vocational)

DA

TA

Labor Market Needs: o Labor Market Demand & Growth: Napa County &

Surrounding Region o Summary of Labor Market Demand o Major Groups with Anticipated Demand or Growth o Industries with High Market Demand Jobs, Based on

Inverse Staffing Patterns

Addressing needs of life-long learners in light of recent legislation

STR

ATE

GIE

S

o Explore community education/non-credit solutions to provide access to courses popular among life-long learners

o Explore possibility of clustering credit and community education offerings (repackaging credit courses) to provide opportunities for life-long learners to attend classes

o Identify effective marketing and communication methods to increase awareness as offerings for life-long learners are expanded

DA

TA

Enrollment Trends: o Credit-Student Headcount & Enrollment Trends o Non-Credit Offerings o Impact of Repeatability

Program Clustering: o Fill Rates & Productivity

Local Needs-Related Challenges



Revitalizing the non-credit program following severe reductions in recent years

STR

ATE

GIE

S

o Explore non-credit options as means of complementing credit offerings to support student success (e.g., modularized delivery, skills workshops)

o Align non-credit pathways with credit degree and certificate programs to facilitate student transition (e.g., CDCP, basic skills, adult education)

o Use non-credit/community education program as method for delivering short-term training/information sessions based on community demand/need (e.g., trainings related to changing demographics among community, including aging of the population, intellectually disabled adults, etc.)

o Offer non-credit courses in a variety of locations

DA

TA

Effective Service Area: o Changes in Population of Napa County, By Age Group

Enrollment Trends: o Enrollments & Section Offerings o Credit & Non-Credit Offerings o Non-Credit Enrollments by Location

Underutilization of Upper Valley Campus facility

STR

ATE

GIE

S

o Explore methods for integrating Upper Valley Campus into credit programs

o Identify credit programs that are best-suited to be housed in the Upper Valley Campus as their primary location

o Expand offerings at Upper Valley Campus to address a variety of student/community needs

DA

TA Facilities Usage & Needs:

o Credit Enrollments by Location o Non-Credit Enrollments by Location

Non-Credit &

Upper Valley Campus-Related

Challenges



Insufficient technology and technological infrastructure to support classroom instruction and

student learning

STR

ATE

GIE

S

o Implement replacement/upgrade plan to ensure current technology to support classroom instruction

o Upgrade technology to a consistent standard across all instructional spaces

o Provide sufficient technological infrastructure to support NVC’s instructional and student support needs and prepare for future needs/demands

DA

TA Facilities Usage & Needs:

o Lecture Room Capacity (Classrooms with Technology Upgrades)

o Lab Space Needs

Limitations of existing physical resources constrains ability to meet student needs

STR

ATE

GIE

S

o Ensure Napa Valley College has adequate space to address student needs and enable growth within high-demand lecture courses

o Develop means to address demands for increased laboratory space

o Develop flexible classroom spaces that can host a variety of instructional modalities

o Develop long-term plan to eliminate reliance on temporary classrooms

o Provide space that will allow for the growth of programs and services that support student success and retention

o Structure schedule to optimize usage of existing classrooms and labs

DA

TA

Student Progression & Persistence: o Retention, Successful Course Completion, &

Persistence Rates Facilities Usage & Needs: o Lecture Room Capacity o Assigned Square Footage: Lab Space o Lecture Space on Main Campus o Full-Time Equivalent Students in Temporary & Non-

Lecture Spaces Program Clustering: o Fill Rates & Productivity

Technology &

Physical Resources-Related

Challenges

Date post:	05-Jul-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	1 times
Download:	0 times

EDUCATIONAL MASTER PLAN UPDATE 2015-2016...The 2015-2016 EMP Update has been described as a snapshot...

Documents